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RE: The Perils of Victory - 7/14/2015 7:58:51 PM

Canoerebel

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VP are relevant if John is going for Auto Victory (this was addressed earlier today in one of my previous posts). John is not going for AV, so VP are irrelevant.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 7/14/2015 9:00:11 PM >

(in reply to vicberg)

Post #: 481

RE: The Perils of Victory - 7/14/2015 8:58:59 PM

Panther Bait

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I think the strategy of trying to force a carrier battle is a unlikely to bear fruit, particularly in NoPac. As Canoerebel points out, Alaska is largely irrelevant at this stage of this particular game. Prince Rupert as a means to draw Allied attention in more valuable, but not his carriers. There are enough bases around that I think the more likely response would be to use restricted US air units and/or (maybe) dismounted carrier squadrons. Personally I would think he'd use the carriers (and their planes) anywhere except Canada/US West Coast. As the Allies, I might be tempted to try and raid the supply lines between the West Coast op area and Pearl Harbor or the Home Island, but probably not with anything other than massed sub attacks.

An attack on Perth is more likely to require the presence of the combined Allied carriers to successfully repulse, but the question is would he try? I don't think it's really critical to keep the Japanese out of Perth, and I don't think the Allies overcommit on this vector.

Ultimately, the Allies don't need to own any particular piece of the map in 1942 and you can't really force them to fight, at least not on the Japanese side of the various "lines of death."

To me, if John was able to successfully take Perth and NoPac, the best course for the Allies would be to park the fleet in US East Coast or Karachi/Bombay/Cape Town. Rather than slog through the long routes of advance all the way across the map, consider a massed attack on Sumatra, Java, and/or Timor in late 1943 preceded by some distraction-type attacks with moderate CV presence on the extents of Japan's conquests to draw off the KB at the opportune time (probably in NoPac or Tahiti/Line Islands).

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RE: The Perils of Victory - 7/14/2015 9:09:40 PM

HansBolter

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I'm with Panther Bait on this.

How far can you afford to expand trying to force the Decisive Battle?

Eventually the bubble will grow so thin it will be easy to choose where and when to '****' it.

Do I sense Victory Disease beginning to set in?

Best be on your guard against that.

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RE: The Perils of Victory - 7/14/2015 11:50:15 PM

bigred

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

At this point in the game, the bases in Canada and Alaska that John is taregeting aren't "necessary" to the Allies. What does it really matter to the Allied player in mid 1942 (in the circumstances present in this game) whether he has Anchorage and Prince Rupert? Those are no big deal. He can leave them in Japanese hands until he wants them; and then he'll retake them pretty cheaply in all likelihood. In the meantime, hea can focus on places that are more important to him.

But Michael is probably thinking, "What if John does this or does that?" He probably recognizes the importance of Prince Rupert. If so, he'll establsih a garrison. And he can have a US Army division (or some nice force) in strategic mode at an inland Canadia base, ready to rail transport into Prince Rupert if John targets it. That's what I did in my game vs. PjH three years ago.

The Alaskan and Canadian bases are only vital to the Allies if Japan is making a concentrated effort at waging war against West Coast USA or if the Japanese player is otherwise going for auto victory and relying on base points to maximize the effort. It's too late for the former, and its probably too late for the latter. But if John created "Noise and Thunder" of a massive move against Alaska and Canada to support the appearance of a move against West Coast USA, that might panic Michael and lead him to commit his carriers (if he is the kind of player to spook at this relatively belated date for such a move to have a real chance of success).

I am not sure but IIRC the japs have an early 4 engine bomber in this senario. This bomber opens the door for jap strat bombing of US industry. Since this is a new mod I wonder if John may want to showcase this ability on the west coast and Aus.

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RE: The Perils of Victory - 7/15/2015 12:29:55 AM

Lowpe

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quote:

ORIGINAL: bigred

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

At this point in the game, the bases in Canada and Alaska that John is taregeting aren't "necessary" to the Allies. What does it really matter to the Allied player in mid 1942 (in the circumstances present in this game) whether he has Anchorage and Prince Rupert? Those are no big deal. He can leave them in Japanese hands until he wants them; and then he'll retake them pretty cheaply in all likelihood. In the meantime, hea can focus on places that are more important to him.

But Michael is probably thinking, "What if John does this or does that?" He probably recognizes the importance of Prince Rupert. If so, he'll establsih a garrison. And he can have a US Army division (or some nice force) in strategic mode at an inland Canadia base, ready to rail transport into Prince Rupert if John targets it. That's what I did in my game vs. PjH three years ago.

The Alaskan and Canadian bases are only vital to the Allies if Japan is making a concentrated effort at waging war against West Coast USA or if the Japanese player is otherwise going for auto victory and relying on base points to maximize the effort. It's too late for the former, and its probably too late for the latter. But if John created "Noise and Thunder" of a massive move against Alaska and Canada to support the appearance of a move against West Coast USA, that might panic Michael and lead him to commit his carriers (if he is the kind of player to spook at this relatively belated date for such a move to have a real chance of success).

I am not sure but IIRC the japs have an early 4 engine bomber in this senario. This bomber opens the door for jap strat bombing of US industry. Since this is a new mod I wonder if John may want to showcase this ability on the west coast and Aus.

Liz and then upgrades to Liz II and then Rita.

I used it a little bit in Focus Pacific. Expensive to build, but it will really disperse Allied fighters protecting deep and form a viable threat.

It is a lot of fun!!!! Until it gets intercepted and then like any Japanese bomber will die very quickly. A glass cannon if ever there was one.

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Post #: 485

RE: The Perils of Victory - 7/15/2015 12:52:22 AM

John 3rd

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Damn. Long day at work. Left at 7am and got home at 6pm. Am significantly tuckered but I have the joy of going back in for inventory starting at 9pm tonight.

Nice, long discussion guys.

First--I don't play for auto-victory. It is a fiction. We're playing for 1946 and delivering as much pain to the Allied cause as possible.

As to two offensives it seems the most logical choice. I have two massed concentrations of troops separated by many miles of ocean. The Eastern Pacific and DEI each contain six Inf Div presently. This is the simple reality. We have lots of air power in Hawaii. A near equal amount can be brought together in the DEI The Kido Butai is at Java. The Battle Line is at Pearl Harbor. These are the centers of gravity.

There is some truth to wanting to demonstrate the full potential of the scenario. Would love to play with a limited strategic bombing element. Forced dispersal of Allied Fighters is a GOOD thing.

IF we were to go to a single thrust into either the West Coast OR Australia we're looking at troop commitment followed by a second wave 4-6 weeks later. I have troops in the 50-70+% Planned Stage for Prince Rupert, Cold Bay, Albany, and Geraldton.

From a fuel/supply point-of-view, the thrust south against Australia would be cheapest. We fight close to fuel centers and the logistical tail is not TOO bad. Moving North and East massively adds to the fuel and supply cost. As stated by others a NorPac thrust is not likely to provoke an opportunity for a major naval engagement. This chance is stronger with a move against Australia.

Keep in mind that the Allied Carrier Fleet is--at this point--split in two. They are separated by far more ocean then mine.

This is the simple strategic overview. Simply put, I can go any direction but what holds the most bang for the Japanese buck?

Course---the truly RADICAL move, given my predisposition, is to say 'GOOD: We are done.' BRING IT ON...

Just pondering fellas.

< Message edited by John 3rd -- 7/15/2015 1:51:45 AM >

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Post #: 486

RE: The Perils of Victory - 7/15/2015 1:58:39 AM

Lowpe

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If you went all out against the US, and landed two waves say around Coos Bay....is there any chance you could take Seattle/Portland.

11 Divisions?

I realize you aren't prepped for it..but at this date, does 11 Japanese Divisions have a chance on the west coast?

< Message edited by Lowpe -- 7/15/2015 2:58:19 AM >

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RE: The Perils of Victory - 7/15/2015 4:27:55 AM

BattleMoose

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If you could get 11 divisions on the West Coast that would be truly terrifying. But the logistics would be, awful. Unless there is a lot of organic supply production that he could capture.

But I really don't get the Prince Rupert Gambit. Even if you can take it, Allied player just backs off forever how long he needs to amass enough ground forces to take it back. Doesn't need any ships either so there really is no risk. Its oh, you have Prince Rupert now, it will be mine later and you would have burned fuel, supplies, risked shipping and will lose any ground forces that are left there. I just don't get it. He can just ignore you, until he can squash you.

The major risk for the allied player in retaking territory is the "shipping" that is required and at risk of being sunk. You don't get this at Prince Rupert.

< Message edited by BattleMoose -- 7/15/2015 5:27:15 AM >

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RE: The Perils of Victory - 7/15/2015 4:28:49 AM

Justus2

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I don't remember your house rules, does he have to pay PPs to move US divisions into Canada? I can see the point on Rupert being a magnet for his counter-attacks, but there still may be value in tying his forces up attacking there and not going via East Coast to the India theater. But if he can use restricted units there, and still send forces around, then sticking to islands like Aliford might be better.

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RE: The Perils of Victory - 7/16/2015 11:17:13 AM

John 3rd

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Technically he would have to pay to move those troops.

We are entering a BUSY weekend. This is LaSalle Days Weekend where we have town activities Fri--Sat--Sun. Am going to be LIVING at my store! Turns will be running but not at their normal pace.

This is also about time for Cheyenne Frontier Days and that means Union Pacific is running their Heritage Train back-and-forth from Cheyenne-to-Denver. We got tickets again this year from Union Pacific for today's ride. My wife sits on the Town Board and we got four complimentary for the ride. It will be GREAT!

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RE: The Perils of Victory - 7/16/2015 11:27:53 AM

John 3rd

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I continue to waffle presently. The KB is now fully concentrated at Soerabaja and is getting some R&R while repairing a bit of System Damage.

Supplies are shifting, fuel loading and going, and troops moving.

Have detached the three oldest BBs to Adak. They shall arrive in two days. Four newest BBs are at PH.

There are two fast TF about to land in the Marquesas. The CL--DD TF are covered by a CA--DD TF.

Another Fast TF is about to take Cocos in the IO.

No action. We just did the April 28, 1942 turn.

< Message edited by John 3rd -- 7/16/2015 12:28:45 PM >

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RE: The Perils of Victory - 7/17/2015 4:25:56 AM

bigred

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I'm not sure moving on Pricne Rupert is a good idea. It's an important base, Michael should know that by now, and he can easily increase the garrison. At least, if my memory is accurate that Prince Rupert is on the railroad. Even if John takes the base, it gives Michael an easy overland target to commit his armies - Canadian and American. Thirdly, Prince Rupert doesn't offer much of a strategic threat as an airbase since Michael is going to have plenty of fighters now.

There are probably better/easier "trip wire" bases than Prince Rupert. I think Alliford Bay falls into that category, as would Juneau and some of the island/panhandle bases further north.

I think John is dispersing his efforts, striking relatively unimportant (strategically) bases all over the place because he can do so and because he isn't sure what else to do. His major hope is to goad Michael into a carrier battle. In this, he might succeed, but only if Michael becomes antsy, which he might not do. IMHO, John would have been much better off concentrating his forces and making a massive campaign that would be partly feint and relatively low in risk (since his forces would be concentrated rather than dispersed and moving all over the map for the next three months). The logical choices would be a major operation (mainly a feint) versus USA (with real targets in Alaska and Canada) or an all-out attack on Oz with the intent of taking everything shy of the Line of Death.

I think the former offered a better chance at goading Michael into a carrier battle and also offered John a better strategic position at lower costs in fuel and supplies (due to proxmity to Japan and making maximum use of Hawaii, a strategic plum that John has taken but is now going to relegate to largely secondary status????).

quote:

John, what the heck are you doing?

Waffling, true, and will turn John from an early high point to a later low point.

< Message edited by bigred -- 7/17/2015 5:25:35 AM >

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RE: The Perils of Victory - 7/17/2015 1:14:19 PM

John 3rd

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We had a great train ride, courtesy of Union Pacific, yesterday and now we head into LaSalle Days weekend. Our little town of 2,500 puts on a pretty good three day show. To say that my Subway will be busy is an understatement! Turns and updates shall be few and far between over the next three days. Will try to Post a picture or two of the train ride. Being those classic Pullmans and watching those old engines pull us is a blast. Very NICE!

I've reached tentative decisions.

The Aleutians are going to heat-up starting in two days as I launch an offensive aimed at gaining Cold Bay and Dutch Harbor. Kodiak may be on the radar but am doubtful as it is so close to many potential American/Canadian bases. That is going to be it. Cannot justify the fuel cost to go further. Invading Whittier and threatening Anchorage holds appeal but FUEL trumps everything. Am certain Michael will come up here once Saratoga is fixed so this is a fairly short window of opportunity. Have three BBs arriving in two days. Loading begins in on May 1st.

We are going to throw the dice in Australia. He'll fight for it so this is where we go. It is the more conservative choice (for me) of the two and far less draining (pun intended) on fuel. Cocos is taken tomorrow and then we'll use fast TF to grab all the NW Aussie Bases. Broome will be developed as my main base. KB shall depart on May 1st to start getting into position for an ambush along the western coast of Australia.

Want to keep Michael's eyes focused on multiple points for a while yet. This plan accomplishes that and, perhaps, sets the stage for very good things to come...

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Post #: 493

The Perils of Victory - 7/20/2015 3:38:09 PM

John 3rd

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May 4, 1942

It has been a BUSY four days in LaSalle. We got a fantastic train ride, courtesy of Union Pacific, on Thursday, LaSalle Day started on Friday, busiest day of the year at the store on Saturday along with a parade--booth in the park--caboose being open to public--fireworks, and Sunday with more work at the store and a party for the caboose's 63rd birthday. BUSY...

There is a war going on and we're about to really enter the next phase.

Fast TF are approaching Broome and Derby. Troops are loading for Wnydham and Darwin. All this activity, hopefully, serves as a lure for the HAMMER.

Look to the NW of the screenshot. Kido Butai moves SW this turn then angles south tomorrow. We'll begin the run in towards Perth on the 7th. Action is approaching fans...

Attachment (1)

< Message edited by John 3rd -- 7/20/2015 4:43:49 PM >

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RE: The Perils of Victory - 7/20/2015 3:50:44 PM

John 3rd

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Michael is now boasting that he KNOWS where I am going. Am sure his intel has picked up my planning for Aussieland. That, and my moves into the Marquesas, will convince him of the isolation of Australia. Good.

To work at sowing some confusion, I load the 14th Army HQ and a second Air Flotilla for the Aleutians.

My I-Boats and Emily have picked up several convoys hugging the coastline approaching Seward. Bet this is a reinforcement attempt. To bring ANY form of reinforcement/supply to help Cold Bay he MUST bring up CV support. GREAT! Have reinforced the LBA up here and should be ready for a hot reception if he can get to Cold Bay before I invade it. Should be exciting up here too...

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Up North - 7/20/2015 4:15:33 PM

John 3rd

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Here is the snap shot of the Aleutians. The 3 old BBs are about to hit Cold Bay and raise the ante. They are LRCAP'd by 60+ Zero.

Allied TF hugging the Alaskan coastline...

Attachment (1)

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Post #: 496

Construction Report - 7/20/2015 4:59:07 PM

John 3rd

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May 4, 1942
Warship Construction

Here is the current building coming up:

Attachment (1)

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RE: Construction Report - 7/21/2015 12:08:07 AM

John 3rd

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Thanks to the 'non-AAR' starting this morning I think the next Japanese Operation shall be know as Operation Fizbin.

Am waiting on a turn from Michael. His computer is not too happy presently.

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Post #: 498

Operation Fizbin - 7/21/2015 12:09:29 AM

John 3rd

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This shall now be the title of the Northern Operation in this campaign. We, thus, pay homage to what classic episode? (This is REALLY EASY!)

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RE: Operation Fizbin - 7/21/2015 12:18:57 AM

BillBrown

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But what is a royal fizbin?

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RE: Operation Fizbin - 7/21/2015 12:41:18 AM

bigred

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quote:

ORIGINAL: John 3rd

This shall now be the title of the Northern Operation in this campaign. We, thus, pay homage to what classic episode? (This is REALLY EASY!)

quote:

Fizbin.

On Beta Antares IV, they play a real game.
It's a man's game, but a little beyond you.
It requires intelligence.
Take the cards, big man.
Of course the cards on Beta Antares IV are different, but not too different.
The name of the game is called, uh ... fizzbin.
Fizzbin. It's, uh ... not too difficult.

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RE: Operation Fizbin - 7/21/2015 2:03:30 AM

John 3rd

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I am CORRECTING the Operation's spelling to FIZZBIN.

"Mr Spock. What are the odds in getting a ROYAL Fizzbin?"

"I have never computed them Captain."

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RE: Operation Fizbin - 7/21/2015 12:02:47 PM

vicberg

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The opportunities for this operation name are immense:

- If the operation goes south, Operation Fizzled
- If you expand the operation, Operation Fizbang
- If you need airlift, Operation Fizzy Lifting

Love it

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RE: Operation Fizbin - 7/21/2015 5:01:14 PM

bigred

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quote:

ORIGINAL: vicberg

The opportunities for this operation name are immense:

- If the operation goes south, Operation Fizzled
- If you expand the operation, Operation Fizbang
- If you need airlift, Operation Fizzy Lifting

Love it

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RE: Operation Fizbin - 7/21/2015 5:10:18 PM

bigred

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quote:

ORIGINAL: BillBrown

But what is a royal fizbin?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v77SF4TFUoM

< Message edited by bigred -- 7/21/2015 6:12:00 PM >

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RE: Operation Fizbin - 7/21/2015 6:36:37 PM

vicberg

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quote:

ORIGINAL: bigred

quote:

ORIGINAL: vicberg
The opportunities for this operat
ion name are immense:

- If the operation goes south, Operation Fizzled
- If you expand the operation, Operation Fizbang
- If you need airlift, Operation Fizzy Lifting

Love it

Oh I can go on. But it requires dredging up an old fart joke.

What are the 8 types of farts:

- The Fizz
- The Fuzz
- The FizzFuzz
- The Blast
- The Ripple Blast
- The Super Ripple Blast
- The Surprise
- The Atomic Bomb

So, if Operation Fizbin turns into a rear action, it can become Operation Fizz or Operation FizzFuzz depending on the extent of the rear action, unless it's 1945, in which it goes straight to the Atomic Bomb as that requires the largest rear action of the war.

< Message edited by vicberg -- 7/21/2015 7:38:28 PM >

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RE: Operation Fizbin - 7/22/2015 1:22:22 AM

vicberg

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No response John? A little too much?

I'll stop tooting my horn now.

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RE: Operation Fizbin - 7/22/2015 1:43:08 AM

bigred

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quote:

ORIGINAL: vicberg

No response John? A little too much?

I'll stop tooting my horn now.

Did he say "toot"?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8YoEdBXT5C4

< Message edited by bigred -- 7/22/2015 2:47:00 AM >

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RE: Operation Fizbin - 7/22/2015 1:51:19 AM

John 3rd

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Ohhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh my.

I haven't been able to respond due to being on the floor in convulsions from laughter.

Holy canoli THIS IS FUNNY!

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RE: Operation Fizbin - 7/22/2015 1:52:26 AM

John 3rd

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quote:

ORIGINAL: vicberg

No response John? A little too much?

I'll stop tooting my horn now.

Please don't stop. I WANT to do from laughter!

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RE: The Perils of Victory