Alternate History Question--the Great Soviet Garage Sale (that never happened)

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Alternate History Question--the Great Soviet Garage Sal... - 3/27/2015 3:14:49 PM

Mgellis

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Joined: 8/18/2007
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Just playing around with ideas and was wondering about something...

In the early 1990s, Russia was going through a tough time as it is got its economy back on track after decades of Soviet rule and/or mismanagement. They decommissioned a lot of their older ships. (Probably a lot of planes, too, but there is less information on this.) It looks like between 1990 and 2005, a lot of ships and subs got decommissioned.

How plausible is it that they could have sold (or just transferred) some of these vessels (and planes) to allies like Cuba, Angola, Vietnam, Libya, Syria, etc.? I mean, even if they were selling the ships for a dime on the dollar, it would have been something. And they could have made more money on "service contracts" with military advisors helping the new owners operate and maintain these vessels. Were all of these vessels in such terrible condition that it just didn't make sense to do this? Or was it something that could have happened but for political reasons or some other reason just didn't happen?

I'm imagining all kinds of regional conflicts that might occur if certain countries suddenly found themselves in possession of a bunch of second-hand Soviet ships and planes. I mean, think of the things that might happen if a half-dozen quasi-stable countries in Africa each suddenly found themselves with an extra 30 or 40 MiG-21s and MiG-23s at their beck and call. Or if Angola suddenly had a couple of old Soviet frigates, a missile destroyer, and a Tango sub or two? Maybe they would try a little wrangle or two with South Africa?

Thoughts? Observations? I look forward to your responses.

< Message edited by Mgellis -- 3/27/2015 4:15:44 PM >

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RE: Alternate History Question--the Great Soviet Garage... - 3/27/2015 3:51:17 PM

Coiler12

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There's a lot of very good logistical and political reasons why it didn't happen.

-There was more modern equipment also available at low prices.
-First off, a warship needs a much bigger crew than even a group of planes, and one of better-trained specialists across the board rather than just pilots (which many Russian 'contractors' did fly). Even more so for submarines, and planes need a lot as well.
-The oldest and nominally cheapest stuff is going to be in the worst condition.
-The Gulf War. Seeing older/export Soviet equipment getting blasted apart was not exactly making people want to acquire more of it, no matter how nominally cheap. (And remember, it's going to be a lot more expensive now that they pay Moscow for support rather than vice versa).
-Even at the height of Soviet economic aid, the allied navies still didn't want/get more than the basic naval vessels, indicating a lack of interest in them.
-Low oil prices and the post-Soviet economic issues are going to mean a general lack of funds to get them. (Cuba is utter toast economically, Libya has low oil prices, Syria already has more ex-Soviet gear than it could handle without foreign support).

Of course, if direct plausibility isn't the most important, one can go ahead, it's just that there are good reasons why it didn't happen historically.

One slightly more plausible option, rather than buying hordes of clunkers, is to go the Liaoning route. Take a stalled modern project like the Neustrashimyys, and pay to have them completed and exported. Being more modern means (at least somewhat) fewer issues than old wrecks, and is more attractive.

(in reply to Mgellis)

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RE: Alternate History Question--the Great Soviet Garage... - 3/27/2015 6:38:57 PM

gord96

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Joined: 3/19/2015
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It makes for some interesting scenarios though. In a series of scenarios I am making a seperatist Quebec bought some old Russian Victor III's for their 'Coast Guard'. Canada and the US are none to pleased.

(in reply to Coiler12)

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RE: Alternate History Question--the Great Soviet Garage... - 3/27/2015 11:16:18 PM

NickD

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Joined: 2/14/2014
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Given that Indonesia bought almost a third of the former East German Navy in 1993, it's entirely feasible that other countries could have gone on similarly ill-advised buying sprees, and that these could have upset regional balances of power. There's an interesting story on the Indonesian purchase at www.nytimes.com/1993/02/05/news/05iht-sale.html if you have access. You could extend this to a scenario where Indonesia bought somewhat better quality Soviet destroyer-type ships and got into a fight with Australia, Singapore and/or Malaysia for instance.

The general trend around the world at this time was to reduce the size of military forces in response to the end of the Cold War though, which I guess cooled the enthusiasm for such purchases (the apparently poor performance of the Soviet hardware used by Iraq in the 1991 Gulf War also wouldn't have helped).

India's recent purchase (and disastrous refit) of one of the Kirov class ships can also be seen in this light.

< Message edited by NickD -- 3/28/2015 12:17:23 AM >

(in reply to gord96)

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RE: Alternate History Question--the Great Soviet Garage... - 3/28/2015 3:18:52 AM

hellfish6

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Joined: 6/15/2008
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I remember there was talk about India and China buying Backfires at some point.

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(in reply to NickD)

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