RE: Winston's Soft Underbelly -- A Dream Realized?

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RE: Winston's Soft Underbelly -- A Dream Realized? - 7/27/2015 12:09:58 AM

rkr1958

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30. Jul/Aug 1944. The Balkans.

In the Balkans the Red Army and the Western Allies meet up on the border of Hungary and Yugoslavia. The Soviets manged to grab Rumania and Bulgaria by complete conquest.

The Western Allies have declared Budapest is theirs. In addition to finishing off the axis in Budapest they still need to capture Belgrade. The Western Allies still have work to do in the Balkans. Work they hope to finish, weather permitting, next turn.

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Ronnie

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RE: Winston's Soft Underbelly -- A Dream Realized? - 7/27/2015 12:27:05 AM

rkr1958

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30. Jul/Aug 1944. ETO. The Western Front.

Into addition to pushing deeper into Germany from the south, the Western Allies opened a third front against the German with their Overlord landings in northern France and the Low Countries. Though this new (third) front is small, it does put pressure from a third side against the Germans. Most importantly, this front is designed to liberate captured German resources and factories in order to degrade and eventually cripple German war production.

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Ronnie

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RE: Winston's Soft Underbelly -- A Dream Realized? - 7/27/2015 12:42:18 AM

rkr1958

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30. Jul/Aug 1944. German Production.

German production, in terms of PP's is down by 7 from it's peak of 30. From last last turn to this it dropped by 6 PP's and with a production multiplier of 2, this means a drop of 12 BP's. However, because of 1 PP last last turn due to allied strategic bombing, the actual BP reduction experienced by the Germans from last turn to this was 10 BP's. Still, a significant drop. Soviet war production alone, even with a 1.75 production multiplier, now tops Germany's production.

However, 46 BP's is still a large amount and the Germany army is formidable and is still far from total defeat.

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Ronnie

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RE: Winston's Soft Underbelly -- A Dream Realized? - 7/27/2015 12:54:22 AM

rkr1958

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30. Jun/Jul 1944. Country Economic Report.

I usually put these reports near the end of the report for a given turn, however, I think it fits better here for this turn.

As mentioned in the previous post, you see in this one that Soviet production alone has out stripped Germany war production. Total allied war production is 160 BP's compare to a total axis production of 67 BP's, which is not even 42% of total allied war production.

Also worth noting in this report are the barrels of oil consumed by the CW and USA this turn. The CW consumed 14 and the USA 12 oil points this turn alone. If you throw the Soviets in, the allies combined consumed 36 oil points compared to a total axis (Germany and Japan) consumption of 7. While oil for the allies will never be critical (BP output will drop some from the max if need be), it will soon be critical for Germany. Their oil stockpile is now down to 3 saved oil points. Once that stockpile is gone, which is likely to be next turn, then the declining German BP output will decline even faster as oil is diverted from production to reorganization of units.

I really love playing with oil. I think this rule makes the game so much more realistic without adding much, if any, additional complication.

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RE: Winston's Soft Underbelly -- A Dream Realized? - 7/27/2015 2:28:14 AM

rkr1958

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30. Jul/Aug 1944. China. North Temperate.

Japan's strategy is to hold out in the Pacific against the USN and RN and then "double-down" in China.

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RE: Winston's Soft Underbelly -- A Dream Realized? - 7/27/2015 2:28:51 AM

rkr1958

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30. Jul/Aug 1944. China. North Monsoon.

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RE: Winston's Soft Underbelly -- A Dream Realized? - 7/27/2015 2:30:23 AM

rkr1958

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30. Jul/Aug 1944. South China Sea, Malaysia and Siam.

The RN managed to sink two IJN CPs and force a third to abort. Japan, however, was able to replace those losses before the turn end.

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RE: Winston's Soft Underbelly -- A Dream Realized? - 7/27/2015 2:31:25 AM

rkr1958

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30. Jun/Jul 1944. CP Losses Through Turn 30.

Note: Report updated to correct for a data entry error.

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Ronnie

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RE: Winston's Soft Underbelly -- A Dream Realized? - 7/27/2015 2:37:35 AM

rkr1958

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30. Jul/Aug 1944. Bismarck, Timor Seas. Rabul and New Guinea.

The USMC managed to recapture Rabul, but at a great price. They lost a corps and division in doing so. In New Guinea and Papua, the Western Allies have isolated the IJA armies there.

On the first impulse the USN supported by the RN managed to sweep the IJN out of both the Timor and Bismarck Seas, giving complete control of those two areas to the allies and isolating the IJA in New Guinea, Papua and Rabul. However, the IJN did managed to get and keep surface units back into those two areas reestablishing supply. Though, all that came too late for the IJA defenders of Rabul.

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RE: Winston's Soft Underbelly -- A Dream Realized? - 7/27/2015 2:40:52 AM

rkr1958

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30. Jul/Aug 1944. Marianas and Solomons.

The three flyouts show the units on the islands at Sapian, Enwin and Kwajalein. The unit panels show the units at sea in the Marianans and the Solomons.

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RE: Winston's Soft Underbelly -- A Dream Realized? - 7/27/2015 2:41:57 AM

rkr1958

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30. Jul/Aug 1944. The Marshalls, Central Pacific and Hawaiian Islands including Midway and Hawaii.

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RE: Winston's Soft Underbelly -- A Dream Realized? - 7/27/2015 2:43:51 AM

rkr1958

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30. Jul/Aug 1944. Turn 31 Trade Report.

The only change from last turn's trade report was the addition of 1 non-resource from Free France to China. However, the allies don't have the CPs in place to fulfill that agreement but will try their best to do so before the turn ends.

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RE: Winston's Soft Underbelly -- A Dream Realized? - 7/27/2015 9:45:27 AM

AlbertN

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I can see a race to Berlin happening here!

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RE: Winston's Soft Underbelly -- A Dream Realized? - 7/27/2015 7:42:04 PM

Centuur

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The liberation of France is near, very near. That's a couple of victory points waiting for the Wallies too...

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RE: Winston's Soft Underbelly -- A Dream Realized? - 7/27/2015 9:31:38 PM

RocketMan

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quote:

ORIGINAL: rkr1958

30. Jul/Aug 1944. China. North Temperate.

Japan's strategy is to hold out in the Pacific against the USN and RN and then "double-down" in China.

What does ""double-down" in China" mean?

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RE: Winston's Soft Underbelly -- A Dream Realized? - 7/28/2015 3:30:34 AM

rkr1958

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Cohen

I can see a race to Berlin happening here!

Yes, exciting isn't it.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Centuur

The liberation of France is near, very near. That's a couple of victory points waiting for the Wallies too...

And I'm sure that if the USA were to get to Berlin first that the VP would go to the CW as well.

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Ronnie

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RE: Winston's Soft Underbelly -- A Dream Realized? - 7/28/2015 3:31:38 AM

rkr1958

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quote:

ORIGINAL: RocketMan

quote:

ORIGINAL: rkr1958

30. Jul/Aug 1944. China. North Temperate.

Japan's strategy is to hold out in the Pacific against the USN and RN and then "double-down" in China.

What does ""double-down" in China" mean?

Japan is putting more ground forces into China in order to try to break the stalemate, especially against the communist and try to discourage the Soviets from jumping in.

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RE: Winston's Soft Underbelly -- A Dream Realized? - 8/2/2015 6:39:53 PM

rkr1958

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31. Sep/Oct 1944. Victory Totals.

The German victory total declined by two to 11 and the Soviets increased by the same two to 13 this turn. Specifically, the victory cities of Budapest, Hungary and Warsaw, Poland changed from German to Soviet control.

Given the disposition of forces at the end of last turn the change of control of Warsaw from Germany to the Soviets isn't surprising. However, Budapest is. More on that later.

This turn saw the axis winning the first roll for the initiative, the allies requesting a re-roll and (the allies) losing the re-roll on a roll of 10! So the axis moved first and, also, they also moved last this turn.

The first impulse pair (#1 & 2) was fine across the map. The USA played an o-chit for a super combined on their first impulse in order to "make hay while the sun shined" and were right to do so. The second impulse pair (#3 & 5) experienced a deterioration in the weather with rain in the Arctic, North Temperate and North Monsoon. The third impulse pair (#7 & 9) saw a continued deterioration of the weather with rain turning to storm in the North Monsoon and with rain continuing in the Arctic and North Temperate. Then the weather suddenly turned fine all across the map on the fourth axis impulse (#11). Not wanting to give the Western Allies and Soviets a likely end of the turn fine weather impulse to do, or continue to do, significant damage to their army, all three axis powers elected to pass and take a chance on a 70% probability that the turn would end. And it worked. The turn ended and the Germans took a big sigh of relief.

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RE: Winston's Soft Underbelly -- A Dream Realized? - 8/2/2015 7:01:52 PM

rkr1958

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31. Sep/Oct 1944. Destroyed Pool.

The Western Allies, really the USN in particular, had a very good turn in the Pacific. They managed to clear out the IJN and take full control of the Bismarck and Solomon sea areas. In the South China Sea, the RN, while not able to do the same, did managed to loosen the Japanese grip on that area. The breakdown of naval actions for these three areas is:

Bismarck Sea Area: 4 rounds of combat over 3 impulses.
Solomons: 1 round over 1 impulse.
South China Sea: 1 round over 1 impulse.

As good as things went for the Western Allies in the Pacific, they went poorly for them both in the Atlantic and on land in Europe. The Atlantic will be covered later in the CP losses report. On land, the Western Allies tried to hit both the Germans and Japanese hard on their first impulse. Unfortunately, on five important attacks with a 70% chance, or better, of succeeding (i.e., capturing a city or destroying an enemy force) they rolled three 3's, one 2, and one 1. All five 70% chance attacks failed to achieve their objective! So go the fortunates of war. The breakdowns of the land combat for both areas area:

Pacific (Western Allies) Land Combat Breakdown: 3:1A 1

Europe (Western Allies) Land Combat Breakdown: 7 assault and 1 blitz, or 8 total, land combats.

1:1A 1
3:1A 1
5:1A 4
7:1A 1

7:1B 1

Soviets Land Combat Breakdown: 3 assault and 7 blitz, or 10 total, land combat.

2:1A 1
5:1A 2

2:1B 1
4:1B 3
5:1B 1
7:1B 2

communist Chinese vs IJA Land Combat Breakdown: 1 assault at 4:1A.

German Land Combat on Western Allies Breakdown: 1 attack at 2:1B and 1 attack, on a partisan, at 10:1A.

IJA Land Combat Breakdown for China: 2 blitz (1 at 5:1B and 1 at 6:1B).

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< Message edited by rkr1958 -- 8/2/2015 8:03:21 PM >

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Ronnie

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RE: Winston's Soft Underbelly -- A Dream Realized? - 8/2/2015 7:05:07 PM

rkr1958

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31. Sep/Oct 1944. Repair Pool.

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RE: Winston's Soft Underbelly -- A Dream Realized? - 8/2/2015 7:06:00 PM

rkr1958

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31. Sep/Oct 1944. Reserve Pool.

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RE: Winston's Soft Underbelly -- A Dream Realized? - 8/2/2015 7:16:37 PM

rkr1958

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31. Sep/Oct 1944. The Soviet Front.

Though the weather was rain in the Arctic and North Temperate in 2 of the 3 allied (Soviet) impulses, the Soviets continued to press their attacks all turn against the Germans in Poland, and in the Balkans, and were rewarded by the capture of Warsaw, Budapest, the liberation of Poland and the total conquest of Hungary.

That's right, Stalin agreed to "liberate" Poland. However, this agreement includes the stipulation that the new Polish leader and government must be "approved" by Premiere Stalin and the Soviet Politburo.

Even with relations between the Soviet Union and the Western Allies chilling a bit, Stalin gave first go for the capture of Budapest, Hungary to the Western Allies. In fact, the conquest was so likely that Stalin had conceded Hungary to them (i.e., Western Allies). However, after the first Western Allied attack failed and the weather turned such that his allies now experienced supply problems, Stalin couldn't resist and ordered the Red Army to attack Budapest at 3:1 on the assault table. An attack that cost the Soviets two corps but resulted in the captured of the city and the conquest of Hungary.

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RE: Winston's Soft Underbelly -- A Dream Realized? - 8/2/2015 7:25:36 PM

rkr1958

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31. Sep/Oct 1944. Balkans.

There's no nice way to put it. The Western Allies blew a very good, if not near certain, chance of keeping Hungary out of the Soviet's sphere of influence and putting it into there's. Orders have come from the highest government levels that the same fate WILL NOT happen to Yugoslavia and Albania. Both will be in the post war Western alliance, whatever that may be called.

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RE: Winston's Soft Underbelly -- A Dream Realized? - 8/2/2015 7:32:05 PM

rkr1958

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31. Sep/Oct 1944. The Western Front.

Munich still remains in German hands. That was one 1 of the 5 "failed" important attacks by the Western Allies this turn.

In France, Patton has landed, fired up his tanks and is making a flanking run across central France to the cheers of liberate and happy French men and women. The fact that Montgomery is still bottled up on the coast west of Antwerp bothers him (i.e., Patton) not one bit.

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RE: Winston's Soft Underbelly -- A Dream Realized? - 8/2/2015 7:41:05 PM

rkr1958

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31. Sep/Oct 1944. CP Losses.

Though Germany is a dying animal it still has some bite left. Germany took a combined in the first rain impulse pair (i.e., #3 & 5) to send its 12 u-boat flotillas out into the North Atlantic (8 units) and the Faeroes gap (4 units) to inflict pain on Western Allied convoys. And that they did in the North Atlantic. In fact, this was the deadliest two month period of the war in terms of CPs sunk for the Western Allies to date. The CW and USA lost a combined 16 CPs sunk and 3 aborted. The previous two month high was back in Sep/Oct 1940 when the CW saw 12 CPs sunk and 7 aborted. German u-boat commanders operated without regard to their own losses (4 sunk, 1 damaged and 2 aborted) by using all surprise points to maximize allied convoy losses.

Note that the 1 u-boat unit damaged this turn joins 1 unit already there. So for those keeping up with the totals, they jive. That is 12 u-boats sent out this turn of which, 4 were sunk, 1 was damaged, 2 were aborted and 5 still remain at sea.

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RE: Winston's Soft Underbelly -- A Dream Realized? - 8/2/2015 8:07:58 PM

rkr1958

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31. Sep/Oct 1944. Battle of the Atlantic.

I originally put this graphic together to show the disposition of the remaining operational German u-boat units. That is 1 in the North Atlantic, 4 in the Faeroes Gap and 2 in Kiel. Also, I wanted to show how the Western Allies had moved all their convoy routes out of the Faeroes Gap, effectively neutralizing the four German u-boat units in this sea area and freeing up allied naval and air forces in this area for duty elsewhere.

However, it was when I was putting this together, which was a few minutes ago, that I noticed a major FUBAR by the Western Allies.

FUBAR = Fouled Up Beyond All Recognition. Although the actual military definition for this acronym is a bit more salty.

Though the Western Allies pulled out all ships and planes protecting convoys through the Faeroes Gap, there are still 4 convoys running through that area and 5 USA CPs there. WHAT A FUBAR!

Isn't this game great! Even solo you can (or at least I can) managed to mess up and surprise myself.

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< Message edited by rkr1958 -- 8/2/2015 9:09:58 PM >

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RE: Winston's Soft Underbelly -- A Dream Realized? - 8/2/2015 8:17:02 PM

rkr1958

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31. Sep/Oct 1944. China. North Temperate.

The Japanese continue to pour more troops into China, specifically in the north against the communist.

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RE: Winston's Soft Underbelly -- A Dream Realized? - 8/2/2015 8:20:07 PM

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31. Sep/Oct 1944. Manchuria.

Along the Soviet border with Manchuria, there are reports of Soviet troop movements, reinforcements and of the redeployment of Koniev and his HQ from Europe to this area.

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RE: Winston's Soft Underbelly -- A Dream Realized? - 8/2/2015 8:24:51 PM

rkr1958

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31. Sep/Oct 1944. China. North Monsoon.

This front has pretty much become a stalemate. With the Nationalist Chinese defending mostly in the mountains there isn't much incentive for the Japanese to push to hard against them. Conversely, with the Chinese attack (optional rule) there isn't much incentive for the Nationalist Chinese to push hard against the Japanese. Thus, the stalemate.

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RE: Winston's Soft Underbelly -- A Dream Realized? - 8/2/2015 8:43:17 PM

rkr1958

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31. Sep/Oct 1944. South China Sea.

The IJN is holding on by their fingernails in the South China Sea. The RN, supported by the USN, hopes to break their grip soon and gain full control as the USN has in the Bismarck, Solomons, Coral and Marianas.