brian brian
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I want to walk back a bit now to this post (edited some), which sounds like an excellent set-up for a wargame. Say a volume in the Europa series (I have a vague memory of GDW possibly producing such a title? Not sure it actually happened.) But for a nice hypothetical game, it would be easy to design. Since none of this ever happened, it could be perfectly balanced through play-testing and adding or subtracting forces to each side.
quote:
ORIGINAL: warspite1
While German troops are busy overrunning Vichy units in what remains of Metropolitan France, German troops earmarked for Operation Felix are heading at full speed for Spain. Hitler has ordered two Panzer Divisions, two Infantry Divisions, a Mountain Division, seven artillery regiments and an A.A regiment to the border for the purposes of taking the Rock and ensuring that any potential Allied encroachment in Portugal can be covered off. Luftwaffe units are on their way too.
Meanwhile the twenty-two badly equipped and understrength Spanish divisions are placed on high alert. Spanish artillery begin the task of shelling the British positions in Gibraltar; given the state of the Spanish rail system, it will be four weeks before the German units can reach the battlezone…..
In the air the Spanish air force launch a desultory raid - more for show - against ships in the harbour, but these are chased away for the loss of two aircraft by a squadron of Hurricanes.
How will the British use the time available before the Germans arrive?
But currently in the thread, you guys are bogging down in minutia. Some Spanish shipping is overseas, some isn't. The Spanish and British forces likely fight some. You could kick operational to tactical level hypotheticals around forever about this. What day does the first German plane appear over The Rock? Where was the Ark Royal that day? One could take different paths down the rabbit hole all one wishes.
I think what you all really need to do, is play some World in Flames with a decided German vs. CW emphasis and see what happens. You could make your own optional rule in MWiF as I suggested by having the CW DOW Spain and the Germans burn an offensive chit or two without really doing anything.
But let's return to the realm of Strategy, and the Italian Spear. This make-believe starts with Hitler receiving Franco's letter. Mid June, I presume. And thus shortly after Mussolini had suddenly entered the war, and achieved nothing in the passes of the Alps. This scenario has Hitler giving Franco a big affirmative and ignoring French offers of peace. There is no meeting in the rail car; metropolitan France is conquered completely. The final ugly scenes are probably desperate scrambles of the French government to board ships in Bordeaux, Marseilles, and Toulon while the Luftwaffe screams in the skies overhead. The WiF style ultimate redoubt in Toulouse? The French were too far gone for that to happen.
What does Mussolini do now? Corsica is sitting there just off shore, probably in a fair bit of chaos. German troops probably link up with the Alpini by the end of the month and Hitler gives Il Duce an occupation zone at least, to help spread the considerable work of that job. Nice and the rest of Savoy are his at last. But what else would he do?
As for what the British do in this Axis fantasy, I don't think very much at all. Historically, they spent the month of June figuring out how to get the USA's old rifles and bullets left over from The Great War, while scrambling around figuring out how to withdraw any and all regular British troops from India, Palestine, and Narvik (early June), counting them up by battalions, not divisions. (This just from a quick skimming of "Their Finest Hour," volume 2 of Churchill's history of the war). I seriously doubt they would be able to come up with forces to invade the Canaries, and as those are so close to the African coast, I don't see the significance of them anyway. The Azores are the real prize, a question which would be settled in 1941 I would expect. The British priority in this would be defense of the British Isles and nothing else, with the Luftwaffe and the Fallschirmjaegers possibly appearing overhead at any moment.
The French would be equally in disarray in their Empire, with whatever forces were there already, and a mass of refugees and probably also a severe shortage of weapons and ammunition - they too would likely be ringing up Uncle Sam for an emergency hand out. Offensive activities would be quite unlikely in my opinion.
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RE: The Italian Spear - 
So, Franco is a dumby, or doesn't care about his small navy...probably dumby. Agree with what you wrote about the Spanish merchant navy.
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