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RE: Battles or how to win.... - 9/10/2016 9:15:31 PM   
STEF78


Posts: 2094
Joined: 2/19/2012
From: Versailles, France
Status: offline 		Thanks for the advice

I will attach Art div to front HQ

I'm cautious about massive attacks all along the front. It can result in a bloodbath and loss of morale. Currently I'm selecting my targets to get more than 50% of victories. Last week I got 9 "retreat" and 4 "held". Bobo did 1 successfull counterattack

(in reply to smokindave34)
Post #: 301
May 1943 - 9/15/2016 9:25:10 PM   
STEF78


Posts: 2094
Joined: 2/19/2012
From: Versailles, France
Status: offline 		Turn 102, 27th may 1943

Still mud in several parts of the front.

Some activity between Kaluga and Kursk

Bryansk
Pavel Belov's 2nd guard army pushes back Hans Hube's units! The german units were overconfident, even if the terrain was in favor of the defenders.



Kursk
2 pzd were commited to the defence... we failed despite 5000guns. the loss ratio 3/1 is acceptable.





(in reply to STEF78)
Post #: 302
RE: May 1943 - 9/15/2016 9:43:18 PM   
jwolf

 

Posts: 2493
Joined: 12/3/2013
Status: offline 		Interesting that neither side lost very many tanks in the big battle near Kursk. If the 3-1 loss ratio is acceptable ... where do you draw the line? 4-1?

(in reply to STEF78)
Post #: 303
Losses and OOB - 9/18/2016 10:15:04 AM   
STEF78


Posts: 2094
Joined: 2/19/2012
From: Versailles, France
Status: offline 		The 3/1 ratio on held results is a raw calculation based on my experience of the game:
- I have more than 200 HI / 300 ARM
- my pools are confortable (except manpower). I will post pictures once I get the turn back.
- the front is long, very long so "natural" attrition is rather strong and it's in my favor
- I cautiously pick my fights and actually get get 3 or 4 victories for a held. In a victory the loss ratio is 1/1
- the russian average CV is slowly climbing (NM + experience)

So I'm currently gaining in power and at the same time german army is still very strong but slowly weakening (except AFV). Thus I'm rather confident on the long term.



(in reply to jwolf)
Post #: 304
RE: Losses and OOB - 9/18/2016 4:14:36 PM   
chaos45

 

Posts: 1889
Joined: 1/22/2001
Status: offline 		Raw numbers wise the Soviets can afford about 100k losses a turn the Germans about 20k without real attrition.

So just raw numbers the Soviets can afford 3/4:1 exchange rates and still be staying good vs the Germans numbers wise. Its why even attacking and losing as the Soviets can be worthwhile...also as you get later in the war the German CV lowers and Soviets increases....thus the more attrition you cause to the German army prior to the big NM swings the better as it weakens them much more quickly in the late game.

Right now the German army in this game is still very strong, 2:1 is acceptable in total numbers for the German player. 2.5 to 3:1 is where the game begins to solidly swing into Soviets favor and makes breakthroughs and encirclement possible 43+ on is what I saw.

(in reply to STEF78)
Post #: 305
RE: Losses and OOB - 9/22/2016 9:41:47 PM   
STEF78


Posts: 2094
Joined: 2/19/2012
From: Versailles, France
Status: offline 		I have plenty of armaments or tanks (see below)

I can afford losing a lot of material but will try to spare my Manpower


(in reply to chaos45)
Post #: 306
June 1943 - 9/22/2016 9:49:04 PM   
STEF78


Posts: 2094
Joined: 2/19/2012
From: Versailles, France
Status: offline 		Turn 103, 3rd june 1943

Mud, mud, mud....

A successfull assault and 10th guards army is 10 miles away from Bryansk

Surprisingly german losses are higher during the "held" than during the "retreat"


(in reply to STEF78)
Post #: 307
Orel is free! - 9/24/2016 7:21:37 PM   
STEF78


Posts: 2094
Joined: 2/19/2012
From: Versailles, France
Status: offline 		Turn 104, 10th june 1943

Some parts of the front benefit of clear weather allowing the red army to free Orel. The first russian MCV reaches 4300! good sign for the future fights.



Offensive is on South of Voronejh



Some pressure in the Baku's area



And the OOB


(in reply to STEF78)
Post #: 308
June 1943 - 9/25/2016 9:12:14 PM   
STEF78


Posts: 2094
Joined: 2/19/2012
From: Versailles, France
Status: offline 		Turn 105, 17th june 1943

It was a muddy spring. Fortunatly the forecast is clear weather for the next weeks!

And some promotions to encourage the russian armies.


(in reply to STEF78)
Post #: 309
RE: June 1943 - 9/27/2016 12:50:25 PM   
BrianG

 

Posts: 4653
Joined: 3/6/2012
Status: offline 		In my game versus Pelton, i've had lots of mud in spring 44.

I think I had one clear for each middle area where historical weather would give at least 3 clears.


(in reply to STEF78)
Post #: 310
RE: June 1943 - 9/27/2016 8:07:40 PM   
STEF78


Posts: 2094
Joined: 2/19/2012
From: Versailles, France
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: BrianG

In my game versus Pelton, i've had lots of mud in spring 44.

I think I had one clear for each middle area where historical weather would give at least 3 clears.



same thing for me. I don't know if it's only bad dice rolls or new algorithm

(in reply to BrianG)
Post #: 311
Clear weather! - 9/27/2016 8:27:36 PM   
STEF78


Posts: 2094
Joined: 2/19/2012
From: Versailles, France
Status: offline 		Turn 106, 24th june 1943

Clear weather all along the front line allows to bite the german line.
- the first objective is to win the "dig in" race in order not to face level3 entrenchment
- the second is to increase the length of the front line . I can create new units, the german cannot. And Bobo has to hold a line from Leningrad to Astrakhan! that's too much for an efficient defence on the medium term
- each breach will be exploited with tank corps. I can afford loosing several of these units. I have plenty of tanks and they don't represent lot's of manpower

Novgorod

2 german infs expelled from the swamps west of Novgorod



Bryansk

5 retreats and one held. and to illustrate a typical fight with the reserve activations.



Voronejh

3 victories in this area



Don bend

Lucky result with high losses


(in reply to STEF78)
Post #: 312
RE: June 1943 - 9/27/2016 11:56:02 PM   
BrianG

 

Posts: 4653
Joined: 3/6/2012
Status: offline
quote:

same thing for me. I don't know if it's only bad dice rolls or new algorithm

Pelton believes this is how it is. Thus algorithm wins. More mud than normal.

(in reply to STEF78)
Post #: 313
July 1943, first breach - 9/30/2016 10:15:11 PM   
STEF78


Posts: 2094
Joined: 2/19/2012
From: Versailles, France
Status: offline 		Turn 107, 1st july 1943

Focus on 2 sectors with very positive results

Bryansk

6 german inf divs are isolated. Of course they will be delivered but it's a good sign!



Don bend

A 30 miles advance through the german lines


(in reply to BrianG)
Post #: 314
RE: July 1943, first breach - 10/1/2016 4:24:14 AM   
jwolf

 

Posts: 2493
Joined: 12/3/2013
Status: offline 		The good news: you've got the initiative and you are forcing him to react to you.

The bad news: some of your tank corps are going to get mauled, especially the one in the last picture right next to all the SS units.

You need to talk the Germans into a massive offensive at Kursk.

(in reply to STEF78)
Post #: 315
RE: July 1943, first breach - 10/1/2016 4:47:05 AM   
chaos45

 

Posts: 1889
Joined: 1/22/2001
Status: offline 		Ya I agree I think the Germans are in position to give many of those soviet units a good kicking if the German player has any initiative/offensive mind set lol.....he should rout a fair number of those soviet tank corps.

(in reply to jwolf)
Post #: 316
RE: July 1943, first breach - 10/1/2016 10:25:18 AM   
STEF78


Posts: 2094
Joined: 2/19/2012
From: Versailles, France
Status: offline 		Sure that those Advanced tank corps will be badly beaten or even trapped. But I use them as expendable units to win the "dig in" race.

I'm more cautious with my guard tank corps and mech corps. They have a CV > 15 and can be used for hasty attacks once a beakthrough appears.

My plans early may were as shown below but I have to be adaptable due to the strong german lines I'm facing. For example I proved to be unable to achieve a Pocket as big as expected near Bryansk. But now the german line is weakening. I'm facing in most parts level 2 entrenchment and lot's of german inf divs in hot spots have far less than 15k men. Time is on my side!

k


(in reply to chaos45)
Post #: 317
RE: July 1943, first breach - 10/1/2016 2:00:01 PM   
smokindave34


Posts: 877
Joined: 1/15/2008
Status: offline 		Your tank corps do not have anywhere to retreat to after they are counter attacked by the SS because you have three units in every hex. Consider keeping a strong rifle corps (or two) in those spots instead that will allow your tank corps a spot to retreat into and minimize your losses.

Nice to see a game into '43. The vast majority of AAR's end in 1941. Thanks for sharing!

(in reply to STEF78)
Post #: 318
RE: July 1943, first breach - 10/1/2016 2:59:25 PM   
STEF78


Posts: 2094
Joined: 2/19/2012
From: Versailles, France
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: smokindave34

Your tank corps do not have anywhere to retreat to after they are counter attacked by the SS because you have three units in every hex. Consider keeping a strong rifle corps (or two) in those spots instead that will allow your tank corps a spot to retreat into and minimize your losses.

You're right I should have given a retreat path but having played Bobo more than 100 turns, I know that he is more keen on encirclement and then surrendering than direct routing. He did it against Cav corps during winter 41/42 and achieved several pockets during summer 42 and even winter 42/43.

I always bet he will try an encirclement

quote:


Nice to see a game into '43. The vast majority of AAR's end in 1941. Thanks for sharing!

Thanks to Bobo. Playing the defensive part of the game isn't always fun for the german side.

(in reply to smokindave34)
Post #: 319
July 1943 - 10/6/2016 8:34:41 PM   
STEF78


Posts: 2094
Joined: 2/19/2012
From: Versailles, France
Status: offline 		Turn 108, 8th july 1943

Clear weather is on and heavy fights are occuring. I need to bleed the german army during this summer campaign!

Bryansk
As scheduled, 3 units are trapped but losing 10k men an 200 AFV is a insignificant loss... especially as they will return for free.



An overview of the main fight area. The retreat/held ratio is fine.



Don Bend

Proud of the retreat of this powerful german stack



Baku

Slow advance, but advance!



And a view of the OOB at the beginning and at the end of my turn. Tactical bombing is used intensively


(in reply to STEF78)
Post #: 320
Novgorod is free! - 10/11/2016 10:02:18 PM   
STEF78


Posts: 2094
Joined: 2/19/2012
From: Versailles, France
Status: offline 		Turn 109,15th july 1943

Grinding is on in several part of the front.

Novgorod
We are proud to announce that our brave soldiers have liberated Novgorod!



Center
Sometimes reverve activation works, sometimes not... GD is a hard nut.

Destroyed tank corps will be back soon



Don bend

The front line is still strong



Baku

The germans try to restore the frontline... useless without entrenchment


(in reply to STEF78)
Post #: 321
OOB evolution - 10/15/2016 10:21:04 AM   
STEF78


Posts: 2094
Joined: 2/19/2012
From: Versailles, France
Status: offline 		We are some turns ahead of the AAR (german 115) and I'm really impressed how fast the game is changing between may 1943 and august 1943.

Of course, the german army is still very strong but attrition, lost battles and units withdrawals have changed the spirit of the battle. For the first time the men ratio (russian/german) is clearly above 2. And I didn't print turn 114 with russian OOB>8300k men and the german below 4040k men.

Snowball is on, even if it's a small snowball at the moment.

And I must had that I changed some parameters in air war on turn 114 and inflicted major losses to the Luftwaffe.


(in reply to STEF78)
Post #: 322
russian army 2.0 - 10/15/2016 12:38:56 PM   
STEF78


Posts: 2094
Joined: 2/19/2012
From: Versailles, France
Status: offline 		Beyond raw figures, the quality of russian army is also increasing.

Below a view of my best units late july 1943 and mi february. The average gain in CV per unit is roughly 5. For 2 stacks of 3 rifle corps, it means + CV30 and we also have to had a more powerfull artillery support



And a view of my best FB, they have a decisive impact on the battle


(in reply to STEF78)
Post #: 323
July 1943 - 10/15/2016 1:04:55 PM   
STEF78


Posts: 2094
Joined: 2/19/2012
From: Versailles, France
Status: offline 		Turn 110, 22th july 1943

Always grinding and trying to enlarge the fight zone and make the front always longer.

Novgorod
Once Novgorod is free, I keep on attacking south and west. I can afford these losses on the long term. german infantry cannot.



Center
An overwiew of the fight area from Vyazma to Voronejh. Ground gain is secondary but like to see how german units on hot spots are weakening. Red circle => 2 inf divs and 2 regiments means after this battle less than 32k men!



Don bend
Trying to defend clear ground without entrenchment is useless


(in reply to STEF78)
Post #: 324
RE: July 1943 - 10/17/2016 2:28:34 PM   
jwolf

 

Posts: 2493
Joined: 12/3/2013
Status: offline 		I'm surprised the Germans are still so far forward near Stalingrad and the lower Volga. They will be in big trouble if they don't pull back soon.

(in reply to STEF78)
Post #: 325
RE: July 1943 - 10/17/2016 11:55:45 PM   
chaos45

 

Posts: 1889
Joined: 1/22/2001
Status: offline 		Its a double edged sword if/when the Germans retreat....as the Soviet army also contracts....thus the German defense doesnt gain as much as you would think as then the Soviets can more easily stack offensive units/and rotate stacks of units through assaults.

The German player is actually doing a very good job in this game so far. Either player can win at this point I think---by win I mean do better than historical results.

(in reply to jwolf)
Post #: 326
RE: July 1943 - 10/18/2016 6:00:34 PM   
STEF78


Posts: 2094
Joined: 2/19/2012
From: Versailles, France
Status: offline 		Retreating isn't an easy decision to take... You have to give up ground you've previously conquered...

At the moment the german line is weakening but the german player can feel comfortable while holding the whole territory including Caucasus, lower Volga....

The argument about rotation of stacks isn't decisive. As I'm not attacking all along the front I'm able to rotate stacks on hot spots.

From my russian point of view, I'm happy with such a long front as I usually face only a single german inf division per hex. It allows a good win/loss ratio and increases the morale of my best units.

It would be interesting to get Bobo's point of view.

(in reply to chaos45)
Post #: 327
RE: July 1943 - 10/18/2016 8:05:51 PM   
EwaldvonKleist


Posts: 2038
Joined: 4/14/2016
From: Berlin, Germany
Status: offline 		Why should he retreat? At the moment, most attacks are in the south and the route Stalingrad-Rostov-Berlin is the longest one. Until there are attacks in the north, there is no need to shorten the line to make it stronger (to hold the line at the shortest route to berlin), because the soviet only win battles where it does not change the ratio turns/hexagons to Berlin. This is my understanding of this strategy.
And even if a breakthrough happens, the axis units are in and advantage because they can run away over own territory, while the soviets have to walk over pending hexagons.

Edit: Peltons AARs with the straight fronlines from north to south and his hexagons/turn calculations are completely unrealistic but it is a really funny strategy.

< Message edited by EwaldvonKleist -- 10/18/2016 8:08:31 PM >

(in reply to STEF78)
Post #: 328
RE: July 1943 - 10/20/2016 8:35:18 PM   
821Bobo


Posts: 2311
Joined: 2/8/2011
From: Slovakia
Status: offline 		Well I am trying to play historically plausible (I also don't like Pelton's math style). On the other side I am prepared to give up ground but really don't want to talk about my strategy.

And sorry for the slow pace, unfortunately(for me fortunately) I have also other commitments.

(in reply to EwaldvonKleist)
Post #: 329
July 1943 - 10/24/2016 8:41:35 PM   
STEF78


Posts: 2094
Joined: 2/19/2012
From: Versailles, France
Status: offline 		Turn 111, 29th july 1943

Last weekend I wondered when this game begun. It was on the 10th september 2015... more than one year of real life....

The last 25 turns weren't the most interesting of the game. The game is well balanced and the 2 sides are close in term of strength... but it won't last. My attacks are stronger turn after turn.

But at the moment, I'm still slowly grinding the german line.

Novgorod

Southern line is strengthened, let's go to the west.



Center

We have reached Bryansk. German OOB falls below 4,1M



Don bend

Some progress despite strong german units



Baku

A german mountain div is pushed back



< Message edited by STEF78 -- 10/28/2016 8:49:38 PM >

(in reply to 821Bobo)
Post #: 330
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