"Historical" Finnish Attack?

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"Historical" Finnish Attack? - 12/4/2015 5:39:20 AM

76mm

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Hi, I'm playing with the "Historical" Option. On September 10 I (as German player) received a notice that the Finns are free to attack beyond the historical border without penalty. The Germans have only reached Luga and Novgorod at this point.

Is this WAD? I would have expected the "Historical" option to make it rather unlikely for the Finns to cross the border unless Leningrad had been taken or if the Germans had achieved some other ahistorical result such as reaching the Svir River, etc?

< Message edited by 76mm -- 12/4/2015 6:41:21 AM >

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RE: "Historical" Finnish Attack? - 12/4/2015 8:16:30 AM

lancer

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Hi 76mm,

Yep, WAD.

The Finns work on a probability basis once Luga or Narva are captured. Might activate sooner, might not be until the Germans reach the gates of Leningrad. The reasons for this are in the manual (No formal military agreement existed between Finland and Germany).

The historical option works identically. Reason for this is that if the campaign was put on rail tracks and you knew the Finns would activate at a certain point, cause that's what happened historically. you'd plan around it. Which didn't happen on the day and would generate an ahistorical outcome

Having the Finns being a touch unpredictable is probably closer to the mark, given the uncertain political situation that existed between the two countries. The Germans pushed very hard to get the Finns to activate but they did so in their own time when they perceived it to be to their advantage.

Cheers,
Cameron

(in reply to 76mm)

Post #: 2

RE: "Historical" Finnish Attack? - 12/5/2015 4:15:12 PM

76mm

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I've now reviewed the parts of the manual relating to Finland, and if I understand it correctly, I don't think it makes sense, particularly for the historical option.

P. 254 of the manual says that once either Luga or Narva is captured, there is a 5% PER TURN of the Finns launching a full invasion. This goes to 10% PER TURN if both Luga and Narva is captured. So every four days there is a 10% chance of Finland invading?

Of course IRL both Luga and Narva were captured and the Finns never invaded, but in the game because of the per turn test a Finnish invasion is a near certainty once Luga and/or Narva falls. It seems like this test should be a one time test, not per turn?

(in reply to lancer)

Post #: 3

RE: "Historical" Finnish Attack? - 12/5/2015 10:32:55 PM

lancer

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Hi 76mm,

Don't know about that.

At a 5% probability it's going to be around ten turns on average, before the Finns agree to cross the historical border. At 10% (Luga and Narva) it's 5 turns. There's a lot of variability there however 'cause of the die rolls which is the aiming point to model the independent approach that Finland took.

You have the ability to finesse the Finnish situation further by using the What if? options at game start.

The German AI has a further check in that the Finns need to pass in order to activate initially. That's there to provide some unpredictability to the Soviet Player as to the Finns.

I'm happy with the probability approach to Finland rather than a more scripted 'this happens now' type approach as historically the key factor appeared to be the lack of any formal agreement between Germany and Finland which allowed the Finns to make up their minds as they saw fit. Which they did independent of the demands of the Germans.

Cheers,
Cameron

(in reply to 76mm)

Post #: 4

RE: "Historical" Finnish Attack? - 12/6/2015 3:15:41 AM

76mm

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quote:

ORIGINAL: lancer
You have the ability to finesse the Finnish situation further by using the What if? options at game start.

"What if" options are fine, but I'm talking about the historical option.

I have no problem with a probabalistic approach, but when in "historic" mode I don't agree that it makes sense that the Finns are almost certain to attack Leningrad at some point when in fact that never happened?

Also, in my current game against the German AI, I was notified that the Finns had decided to initiate a Limited War; since then they've approached my troops on the provisional border but haven't launched a single attack.

(in reply to lancer)

Post #: 5

RE: "Historical" Finnish Attack? - 12/7/2015 8:29:04 AM

lancer

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Hi 76mm,

Historically the Germans didn't really know what the Finns were going to do nor could they force them into doing what they wanted.

The AI controlled Finns have some variability in how they react to keep you on your toes.

Cheers,
Cameron

(in reply to 76mm)

Post #: 6

RE: "Historical" Finnish Attack? - 12/7/2015 8:42:11 AM

76mm

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quote:

ORIGINAL: lancer
Historically the Germans didn't really know what the Finns were going to do nor could they force them into doing what they wanted.

Yes, agreed, and no problem with that.

What doesn't make sense, in my opinion, is that if the Germans capture Narva and/or Luga, as they almost certainly will in every game, then the Finns will almost certainly be allowed to attack Leningrad--the only issue is how soon.

Given that during the war the Germans capture Narva and Luga, and yet the Finns did not attack beyond the historic border during the next four years of the war. Given this history, I don't understand why the Finns have a 10% of activating PER TURN?

If the Germans capture Narva and Luga by mid-August, then given the probability, German players can expect the Finns to activate by the end of September (ie, 10 x 4 day turns = 40 days). Again, given the probabilities, they are virtually certain to activate at some point.

The current design replaces what should be a low probability that the Finns will activate with a virtual certainty that they will do so. I can't see how this makes any sense in a historical scenario?

(in reply to lancer)

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RE: "Historical" Finnish Attack? - 12/7/2015 9:02:47 AM

lancer

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Hi 76mm,

If the Finns were prevented from attacking Leningrad at some point there would likely be a lot of upset German Players.

Not much point having a Lion if you aren't going to let it out of the cage.

Even if it's an 'Historical' Lion it's going to be a pretty boring one if it stays behind bars.

Cheers,
Cameron

< Message edited by lancer -- 12/7/2015 10:03:11 AM >

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Post #: 8

RE: "Historical" Finnish Attack? - 12/7/2015 9:03:23 AM

Flaviusx

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Honestly, I don't think this Finnish thing is a problem, so long as they don't activate too early. Narva and Luga don't fall anytime soon and by the time the Finns activate you should be able to defend Leningrad with just Leningrad MD stuff dug in and on defensive posture in the 2 hexes north of it. 3 units per hex. The Finns aren't that tough. They can smack 23 army around early on when it is poorly deployed and in offensive mode, but by the time they close in the city you should be ok.

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RE: "Historical" Finnish Attack? - 12/7/2015 9:40:55 AM

76mm

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quote:

ORIGINAL: lancer
If the Finns were prevented from attacking Leningrad at some point there would likely be a lot of upset German Players.

Not much point having a Lion if you aren't going to let it out of the cage.

OK. If that is the standard, I guess this isn't the game for me. Oh well...

(in reply to lancer)

Post #: 10

RE: "Historical" Finnish Attack? - 12/7/2015 6:48:03 PM

ChuckBerger

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Hmmm, I think the game should at least be able to generate a historical outcome. As it stands now, the Finns are almost certain to intervene once Luga and Narva fall. That is, the historical outcome (Narva and Luga fall, but Finns don't intervene) is nearly impossible in the game.

I think the default intervention chance should be lowered - to just 2% chance per turn once both Luga and Narva fall. But the player should be able to expend PP to try to raise this chance. So use 15PP to get a 70% chance of doubling the intervention chance, 30% chance of Finns refusing to entertain any further discussions on the matter (intervention chance drops to 0).

While we're on the topic... currently playing my first game as the Soviets, and the AI Finns aren't attacking or moving forward at all. WAI?

< Message edited by ChuckBerger -- 12/7/2015 7:48:50 PM >

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RE: "Historical" Finnish Attack? - 12/7/2015 9:54:34 PM

Flaviusx

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The AI Finns are very passive.

But after having played both sides here I'm not seriously worried about the Finns. With a little foresight the Soviet can keep them away from Leningrad. They're fragile and you can't easily get the siege train to them. Or support them in other way. (Can the Luftwaffe support them? Need to check this.) It's hard to take a city with a major garrison in it, too.

These aren't like the WITE Finns who are rather overpowered and can do a lot of silly things, which requires a hard stop line to keep them from running amok.

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RE: "Historical" Finnish Attack? - 12/8/2015 12:57:30 AM

etsadler

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A) I think there should be a historical option available that the Finns never advance beyond their boarders. There is the Finns activate variant, why not the other way? Options are always welcome!

B) While it is, I agree, unhistorical that the Finns will eventually activate, I do suggest thinking about it from the other side. If I am the Soviets, and I know that Finland will never advance beyond their boarders, then I can withdraw those forces to elsewhere in the north with impunity! That is not very realistic either.

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RE: "Historical" Finnish Attack? - 12/8/2015 1:38:26 AM

Flaviusx

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quote:

ORIGINAL: RickInVA

A) I think there should be a historical option available that the Finns never advance beyond their boarders. There is the Finns activate variant, why not the other way? Options are always welcome!

B) While it is, I agree, unhistorical that the Finns will eventually activate, I do suggest thinking about it from the other side. If I am the Soviets, and I know that Finland will never advance beyond their boarders, then I can withdraw those forces to elsewhere in the north with impunity! That is not very realistic either.

Yeah and what it takes to cover the eventuality isn't hugely different from what the Sovs kept in the area just in case.

The net effect is roughly historical. If the Finns march into Leningrad quite simply you as the Soviet are doing it wrong and got sloppy.

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RE: "Historical" Finnish Attack? - 12/8/2015 8:55:45 AM

lancer

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Hi,

With an historical option of the Finns not threatening Leningrad a Soviet player could easily denude the Finnish front of forces and use them elsewhere which isn't ideal.

There are some What If? options for Finland and the Soviets have one that allows them to shut down the Finnish front altogether, at a cost.

Cheers,
Cameron

(in reply to Flaviusx)

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RE: "Historical" Finnish Attack? - 12/8/2015 9:30:06 AM

Panzeh

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quote:

ORIGINAL: lancer

Hi,

With an historical option of the Finns not threatening Leningrad a Soviet player could easily denude the Finnish front of forces and use them elsewhere which isn't ideal.

There are some What If? options for Finland and the Soviets have one that allows them to shut down the Finnish front altogether, at a cost.

Cheers,
Cameron

Yeah, the Finns not being threatening would allow the Soviets to pull one or both armies stationed there back to hit the northern front which could be pretty critical because Soviet regulars with good stances(the northern armies facing Finland are the only ones that begin in neutral) can really slow the Germans down, especially once the first five turn bonus goes away.

(in reply to lancer)

Post #: 16