RE: Global War AAR in Pictures

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RE: Global War AAR in Pictures - 3/24/2016 2:09:24 AM

rkr1958

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Turn 10. Mar/Apr 1941. Allied #13. RN. East Med. Naval Battle, Round 1. Naval Battle.

Both sides decide to stick around for a potentially second round of naval combat with the RN hoping for a continuation of the battle and the Italians hoping for an end to this battle.

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< Message edited by rkr1958 -- 3/24/2016 2:32:10 AM >

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Ronnie

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RE: Global War AAR in Pictures - 3/24/2016 2:10:45 AM

rkr1958

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Turn 10. Mar/Apr 1941. Allied #13. RN. East Med. Naval Battle, Round 2. Search.

The RN gets their wish. They again surprise the Italians and manage to exclude axis NAVs and fighters in box 1.

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Ronnie

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RE: Global War AAR in Pictures - 3/24/2016 2:12:26 AM

rkr1958

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Turn 10. Mar/Apr 1941. Allied #13. RN. East Med. Naval Battle, Round 2. Naval Battle.

The RN manages to sink, damage and / or abort all Italian surface ships and convoys in the East Med. A clear victory for the RN and the CW.

Both sides, again decide to stick around. The axis still have fighters and NAVs in sea box 1 and must maintain supply to all their forces in North Africa and the Middle East.

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Ronnie

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RE: Global War AAR in Pictures - 3/24/2016 2:14:41 AM

rkr1958

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Turn 10. Mar/Apr 1941. Allied #13. RN. East Med. Naval Battle, Round 3.

Round 3 once again sees the RN finding and surprising the axis. However, this time the naval air battle is bloodless, not even resulting in an abort.

Of course, the axis decide not to continue round 3.

Both sides, again, decide to stay. And this time neither side finds the other. Thus ending this epic naval battle.

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Ronnie

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RE: Global War AAR in Pictures - 3/24/2016 2:15:25 AM

rkr1958

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Turn 10. Mar/Apr 1941. Allied #13. CW. East Med.

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Ronnie

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RE: Global War AAR in Pictures - 3/24/2016 2:16:31 AM

rkr1958

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Turn 10. Mar/Apr 1941. Allied #13. CW. East Africa.

Looks like CW near term objective for East Africa is Eritrea and Ethiopia.

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Ronnie

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RE: Global War AAR in Pictures - 3/24/2016 2:19:22 AM

rkr1958

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Turn 10. Mar/Apr 1941. Allied #13. CW. RAF Strategic Bombing Raids. Western Front.

The RAF unleashes five strategic bombing raids against German industry and oil, but only managed to destroy 1 PP.

Well, given the success of the RN in the East Med, it's hard to complain about the poor performance of the RAF against German in the West.

End of Turn (pre roll).

Now, comes the all important end of turn roll. There's a 70% chance that this turn will end, which means a 30% chance that it will continue.

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Ronnie

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RE: Global War AAR in Pictures - 3/24/2016 2:42:27 AM

rkr1958

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Turn 10. Mar/Apr 1941. Allied #13. End of Turn Roll.

Wow ... this turn continues on a roll of 8 against a 70% chance of ending. That is, there was only a 30% chance of the turn continuing.

Now I remember someone on this forum saying that baseball would be a very boring game indeed if a 30% chance was essentially the same as no chance of "the event" occurring.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Cohen

The turn will probably end - and I do not know how the initiative tracker is.
BUT if the turn does not end AND the initiative is favorable to Axis (Possibly a +2, but even a +1 can do); Germany could DoW Russia.

Cons:
Soviets place reserve and will have them organized the next turn already.

Pros:
Germany moves and attack and holes - and can use surprise to use all their planes in awareness they'll be ready immediately once the turn ends.
Germany has double chance (due to the Initiative toward Axis) to seize initiative next turn too - and move twice in a row (Which probably dooms all the upfront Soviet forces); which can be devastating for the upfront Soviet units.
Soviet reinforcements will have many cities already filled with unmoved reserves and will be placed further behind.

I'm going to have to sleep on this one. If the turn ends after this impulse the die roll modifier is 0 (neither side has an advantage and both sides can choose to re-roll. However, axis wins ties. If I've done my calculations correctly and assuming whoever wins the first roll, the other side chooses to re-roll I calculate the chance of the axis winning the initiative and being able to move first at 55.5%. A little better than a coin flip.

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< Message edited by rkr1958 -- 3/24/2016 2:50:36 AM >

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Ronnie

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RE: Global War AAR in Pictures - 3/24/2016 4:24:37 AM

AlbertN

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A very tricky situation then.
Remember also who won the Mar / Apr initiative loses ties. (I think you computed that already though).

Also a last bit to bear in mind - the "Trade" to be accounted.
Germans give 2 BPs to Soviets.
Soviets give 2 Oil and 1 Resource (I think - assuming Finland, Rumania, Bulgaria and Hungary are all Axis) to Germany.

German oil stocks can be a variable there.
You'd lose 2 points and increase the oil consumption by 1 turn usage of airplanes.

You'd also obviously get the headstart and gain grounds with some forward rebasing for all planes giving "Ground Support" bonus (as they return to base after the movement).
It would be 1-2 hexes at top eventually but they're free rebases letting you gain that hex or so.

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RE: Global War AAR in Pictures - 3/25/2016 12:18:57 AM

rkr1958

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Turn 10. Mar/Apr 1941. Axis #14. Germany. Baltic.

Germany decides NOT to DOW the Soviet Union at this time. Barring bad weather they will do that on their first impulse next turn.

Both Germany and Italy take a naval. Germany uses their naval to move Finnish and German surface ships into the Baltic to defend against Soviet submarines and raiders. Also, they move 3 additional CPs (Finnish) into the Baltic.

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RE: Global War AAR in Pictures - 3/25/2016 12:22:45 AM

rkr1958

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Turn 10. Mar/Apr 1941. Axis #14. Italian Naval. East Med.

The Italians move their remaining organized surface fleet, 4 ships, to the East Med to reestablish a surface naval presence there. Three ships are moved to the 4 box and 1 to the 3 box. Also, the Italians replace the one CP lost last impulse, reestablishing the routing of the Cyprus RP to an Italian factory.

The Italians elect NOT to initiate naval combat.

The CW, however, as the non-phasing player does elect to initiate combat.

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Ronnie

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RE: Global War AAR in Pictures - 3/25/2016 12:25:09 AM

rkr1958

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Turn 10. Mar/Apr 1941. Axis #14. East Med.

However, the RN is unable to locate to the Italian RM, who are unable to locate the British RN. Neither side finds the other so no naval combat occurs. This sits perfectly well with the Italians but not so well with the CW after their hard won naval victory there last impulse.

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Ronnie

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RE: Global War AAR in Pictures - 3/25/2016 12:48:35 AM

rkr1958

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Turn 10. Mar/Apr 1941. Axis #14. German U-boats & Italian Subs. Cape St. Vincent.

Both Germany and Italy use their naval to move u-boats and subs into Cape St. Vincent and successfully surprise the CW. The axis isolate sea box 0 (where the CW convoys are) and use 3 of their surprise points to force a submarine battle.

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RE: Global War AAR in Pictures - 3/25/2016 12:50:12 AM

rkr1958

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Turn 10. Mar/Apr 1941. Axis #14. Cape St. Vincent. Submarine Battle.

The axis manage to sink 4 CW CPs at a cost of 1 German u-boat unit sunk and 1 Italian submarine forced to abort.

Both sides stay.

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RE: Global War AAR in Pictures - 3/25/2016 12:54:09 AM

rkr1958

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Turn 10. Mar/Apr 1941. Axis #14. Cape St. Vincent. Round 2.

In the second round both sides find the other. The CW, really not wanting to continue this battle, doesn't have enough surprise points to avoid it. They choose a naval battle instead. Since the only CW air unit in the battle doesn't have any air to sea factors this ends this round.

Both sides again decide to stay. However, neither side finds the other so combat in this sea area ends.

I have to call this battle a marginal victory for the axis. A loss of 4 CW CPs at the end of turn, assuming this turn ends, will scramble CW production a bit not to mention the loss of 4 BPs that the 4 CPs sunk represent.

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RE: Global War AAR in Pictures - 3/25/2016 12:56:20 AM

rkr1958

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Turn 10. Mar/Apr 1941. Axis #14. German U-boats. North Atlantic.

Germany also use their naval to successful force a submarine battle against allied CPs, and their escorts, in the North Atlantic.

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Ronnie

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RE: Global War AAR in Pictures - 3/25/2016 12:59:45 AM

rkr1958

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Turn 10. Mar/Apr 1941. Axis #14. German U-boats. North Atlantic. Submarine Battle.

Germany u-boats sink 2 more CW CPs and force another CP to abort. Both German u-boats units were damaged and forced to abort, thus ending the submarine battle there.

I'd also have to call this a marginal victory for the axis who managed to sink a total of 6 CPs and force a 7th to abort this turn. And if the turn ends, 80% chance that it will, the CW won't get a chance to replace that CPs meaning that the CW won't likely be at full production unless they use some of their saved oil, which they probably will, for production.

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Ronnie

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RE: Global War AAR in Pictures - 3/25/2016 1:01:45 AM

rkr1958

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Turn 10. Axis #14. Japan. Ground Strikes. China.

Japan takes a land and uses their two air mission to launch two ground strikes. One against a Chinese stack in the north and one against a Chinese stack in the south. Both air strikes are ineffective.

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RE: Global War AAR in Pictures - 3/25/2016 1:03:20 AM

rkr1958

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Turn 10. Axis #14. Japan. Southern China.

In Southern China, China makes no attacks. They do use the land to shore up their lines, especially north of Pakhoi.

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Ronnie

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RE: Global War AAR in Pictures - 3/25/2016 1:14:16 AM

rkr1958

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Turn 10. Axis #14. Japan. Land Combat. Sian, China.

In the north, the Japanese make an all out assault on Sian to try to break the stalemate there. Even with HQ support using Yamamoto, the best the Japanese can get is a +7A attack. This means they need to roll a 12 or higher to capture the city, which gave them a 45% chance of success. The attack fails.

If the attack had succeed then the Japanese would have continued their push against Mao and his communist. Now that it failed, Japanese high command has accepted the stalemate in Northern China and now plans to remove Yamamoto and the two marine units there for future operations mostly likely against the USA and CW when war breaks out with them.

Either way, I view this attack as critical in helping determine Japanese long term strategy for the north. Unfortunately for the Japanese, it's stalemate (i.e., stop and hold what they have now).

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Ronnie

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RE: Global War AAR in Pictures - 3/25/2016 1:15:02 AM

rkr1958

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Turn 10. Axis #14. Japan. Northern China.

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RE: Global War AAR in Pictures - 3/25/2016 1:22:27 AM

rkr1958

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Turn 14. Mar/Apr 1941. Axis #14. End of Turn.

Wow, the turn ends but barely on a roll of 8 against a 80% that it would end.

The axis, and Germany, have a 55.5% chance of moving first next turn. The initiative modified is at 0, but the axis wins ties since the allies moved first this turn. No matter which side wins the first roll, the other side will request a re-roll.

The axis have a 55% chance of winning the first roll. Assuming the axis win and the allies request a re-roll, the axis would have a 64% chance of winning the second roll and, thus, moving first. If the axis lose the first roll, 45% chance, and request a re-roll they would have a 45% chance of winning the second roll. Thus, the chance of the axis winning the initiative is,

55% x 64% + 45% x 45% = 55.45%

If I've done my math correctly.

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RE: Global War AAR in Pictures - 3/25/2016 1:28:25 AM

rkr1958

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Turn 14. Mar/Apr 1941. USA Entry Options.

The USA adds a chit to the Japanese entry pool. They choose no additional options and won't until they reach 34(17), "Pass War Appropriations Bill." Next turn would be nice and may not be unlikely given the expected German DOW of the USSR.

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Ronnie

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RE: Global War AAR in Pictures - 3/25/2016 1:36:20 AM

AlbertN

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Berlin and Hamburg MILs should be used in Barbarossa to be honest.
Cheap units with lots of punch - weaker MILs should be used as garrisons at least now that the W.Allies lack the ability to land in France.

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RE: Global War AAR in Pictures - 3/25/2016 1:43:10 AM

rkr1958

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Turn 10. Mar/Apr 1941. CW, Preliminary Production.

The loss of 6 CPs and having a 7th aborted on the last impulse of the turn resulted 6 CW factories being idled. Through rerouting of saved oil to Canada and using 2 routed "saved" oil points to the UK for production, the CW was able to get the number of idle factories down to 4. During final production the CW will use 4 saved oil in the UK to get their production back up to the max of 22.

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Ronnie

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RE: Global War AAR in Pictures - 3/25/2016 2:27:18 AM

rkr1958

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Turn 10. Mar/Apr 1941. CW, Return to Base. East Africa.

Alexander lands in CW controlled East Africa and takes command there. Also, an Indian fighter is brought in.