LTCMTS
Posts: 300
Joined: 1/6/2003 From: Newnan, GA Status: offline
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I agree on the probable ineffectiveness of B-17 strikes on TAiwan except for the comments by the Japanese that such a strike might have caught their a/c on the ground as the fog lifted in interviews with the SBSS. And Kearny had his own ax to grind. Besides, use them before you lose, them, which was the eventual fate. As far as holding as much of the Philippines as possible, the main island Luzon had more landing sites than any force could have covered, especially an organization as understrength as the 26 Cav (PS) and the Philippine Div. The Japanese would have found a lightly or undercovered beach, gotten troops ashore and proceeded to pry the US/PA defenders out of every blocking position they assumed and forcing them to fight through IJA blocking positions on their retreat to Bataan, which is what historically happened. Supplies positioned forward to support the OPLAN were lost to the Japanese who used them to support their own ops. Remember that the Japanese had to invade the Philippines between OCtober and December, when the rice crop was harvested, allowing the IJA to "live off the land" through foraging from commercial storage sites. If the Japanese had waited until 1942, then the situation would have been better for the US. But as indicated before, the Japanese strategic situation couldn't wait till Oct-Dec 42 for the next years harvest. Yet if they had, the 32d ID (ARNG), a medium tank battalion and enough equipment to bring the Philippine Division to the 1941 triangular MTOE would have become available by Feb 42 and the PA would have been further along in its training program. Of course, any reading of the official history would bring some doubt on whether the PA divisions other than the 1st and 2d would have reached a sufficient level of readiness by even May 42. A larger force, however, would still, with Japanese control of the air and sea, only add to the "bag" if not relieved by the USN. Once the US lost any ability to contest air superiority by the Japanese, and with the freedom represented by control of the local seas, the Japanese could pick and chose their landing areas outside the coverage of US coastal defenses, or even invaded the surrounding islands like Visayen and Mondanao to set up air bases to stage to from Taiwan and French Indo China. A larger, better prepared force could have caused more casualties, but the combined wisdom of Army officers in the Philippines from 1902 to 1941 was that the shores could not be held. Additions to the force structure would only allow the US to extend the size of its perimeter of defense beyond Bataan. In TOAW-COW, with the forces that would have been available in Feb 42, I have been able to hold the Japanese north of Manilla across the northern neck of Luzon, but eventual they come ashore in the south and flank me. Notice that the Japanese solution to the problem by Yamashita, who had far more effective and numerous ground forces in 1944 on Luzon than MacArthur in 1941, but had also lost control of the air and seas around Luzon, was to concede the beaches to the US and fall back into the San Carlos mountains as a redoubt area, intending to deny the US free use of the nearby airfields and force the commitment of ground forces to the Philippines to cover him that would become unavailable for further offensive actions. A final sidebar. There could have been a far more effective garrison available in the Philippines. The US could have created a larger Philippine colonial army, along the lines of the British and French. They could have supported creation of a Philippine National Guard from 1902 (remember that Puerto Rico was a former Spanish colony and future Commonwealth, and was allowed an ARNG), and accepted Philippino voluteers for service in Europe and elsewhere (Quezon offered to raise 15,000 in 1917)during WWI who could have been incorporated in an Organized Army Reserve (PS) in 1921 (which would have provided a cadre of officers and NCOs, along with the PARNG to build a PA around). There was a move to "exile" the four "colored" regiments (9th, 10th Cav & 24th,25th Inf) to overseas duty (These rgts had the fewest AWOLS and desertions and the highest readiness ratings of any rgts in the Army between the wars). Finally, in the late 20's, the War Department made a massive shipment of surplus arms and equipment to the Philippines, Panama and Hawaii. Unfortunately, the action wasn't properly coordinated and the resources were not on hand to receive and properly store the equipment , most of which ended rotting and rusting away on the Manilla docks. With proper preperations, some of the massive numbers of artillery and MGs (M1915 Colt-Vickers, M1917 Lewis, M1918 Marlin-Savage) available at the time and as good as anything the Japanese brought to the Island in 1941 could have been available to support a more potent force of 2-3 US Army (combined RA/AR) divisions, 1-2 Philippine ARNG divisions and 2-3 Philippine AR (PS) or PA divisions, all built on the 1923 "square" MTOE and properly equipped. In 1922, the US Army had on hand 102 2.95" Mtn Gun M1911, 490 3" Gun M1902, 54 4.7" Gun M1908, 271 75mm Gun M1916, 832 75mm Gun M1917, 1644 75mm Gun M1897, 135 120mm Gun M1917, 36 6" How M1908, 108 5" Gun M1917, 54 6" Gun M1917, 832 155mm How M1917, 388 155mm Gun M1917 and 244 8" How M1918. All these weapons would be more or less obsolescent in 1941, but other than a handfull of designs such as the 75mm Gun Type 90, the Japanese artillery park would be in no better shape.
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