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RE: Warspite1 Keep Out!

 
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RE: Warspite1 Keep Out! - 3/17/2017 9:06:48 PM   
AllenK


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Certainly a re-roll. As well as Biscay, Japan needs to go first to at least attempt to rescue a looming problem in China.

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RE: Warspite1 Keep Out! - 3/17/2017 9:45:08 PM   
Centuur


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The more you ask for a reroll, the less impulses you will get. The higher the Axis initiative, the less impulses the Allies will get in later turns...

Make your calculations very carefully before deciding on this. Take into account the chances of getting bad weather too, before making a decision. And than take into account that you have exactly the same percentage of success as on the first die rolls made...

I've often concluded that asking for a reroll was foolish, because of this effect. If the Allies win the die, let them go first...




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RE: Warspite1 Keep Out! - 3/17/2017 9:51:28 PM   
AllenK


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You've lost me a bit on this one.

Asking for a re-roll affects the initiative track. How does that translate into number of impulses?

Edit: Factoring in the potential weather does make sense.

Edit 2: From Japan's perspective, I've a HQ-INF, INF and MIL that can be put back in supply and possibly take out a CAV Div if the Axis win the initiative. If they lose, those units will probably be pocketed and no immediate prospects of relief. In those circumstances, I'd go for the re-roll every time.

< Message edited by AllenK -- 3/17/2017 9:58:59 PM >

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RE: Warspite1 Keep Out! - 3/18/2017 10:24:29 AM   
Centuur


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It's all about turn length. The advance of the impulse number gives you the chance of the turn to end. So, the side which has the initiative and moves first, has the highest chance of getting 1 impulse more than his opponent. This is what almost every new player thinks and acts on. So, new players tend to ask for rerolls a lot.

However there comes the initiative track. This track is changes by the following occurrences:

It's moved in your opponents favour, if you got both the first and the last impulse in the turn. The chance if you get an impulse more than your opponente if you move first is pretty high...
It's moved in your opponents favour, if you ask for a reroll.

Thing is, as the Axis, you want stay as high as possible in the initiative track. Why? Because it gives you the opportunity to force the Allies to follow your decisions on who moves first. It gives you the opportunity to move first in turns when it really matters (first turn of Barbarossa in 1941, or first turn of war with Japan against the CW/US, f.e.) and it gives you the opportunity to say to your opponent: "well, it's winter, weather is probably going to be very bad, you go first", since I want to use the +2 modifier in the coming summer.

If you make a statistical calculation on the number of impulses you will get, when you always go first if you win the initiative die rolls, you find yourself with a lesser number of impulses if your opponent simply accept the die rolls and makes his decision on the fact: "if it doesn't matter, my opponent goes first". It almost comes back on average on 3 impulses each year. That's a lot. That comes with the modifiers on the initiative die rolls.

When I play the Allies, I always make my decisions on initiative by following the die rolls. Only if things look like I need to go first to prevent a double move and things might really get me in trouble I might think about rerolling. I let the Axis go first, whenever it's save to do so. Why? I want that +2 modifier in the turns when it really matters. In 1944 and 1945, when I'm pressed for time. Same with the Axis. If the Axis have got a modifier in 1944, that really helps against an Allied double move and might save the day at the bitter end...





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RE: Warspite1 Keep Out! - 3/18/2017 10:58:14 AM   
Mayhemizer_slith


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German plans for impulse

No DoW during rain (I assume USSR can't DoW on Germany, correct me if I'm wrong).

Germany takes combined

TRS and AMPH to Baltic Sea box 3. MAR loaded on TRS and strongest 4 moving INF on AMPH. When we attack I will invade and paradrop behind USSR lines.

Germany sends FW190 and Bf110 to BoB box 2, NAV intercepts.

No ground strikes in Spain unless they are OOS, in that case I need to take a look what I do. Germany needs 1-2 rebase missions in East Prussia.

No rail moves.

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RE: Warspite1 Keep Out! - 3/29/2017 6:04:05 PM   
Mayhemizer_slith


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I'm ready continue game 1 (assuming latest patch fixed all problems) if you give instructions. German instruction are above if you start our impulse.

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RE: Warspite1 Keep Out! - 3/29/2017 7:33:39 PM   
AllenK


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We need Orm to update to the latest version and redo from the reinforcements step. From my test run through, the problem with factory repair seemed to have been resolved in the latest hot patch. I'd do it myself but the instructions left on the game thread don't include Orm's Major Powers and there isn't enough information to know how he placed his pilots and reinforcements.

It looks like Orm will be offline for a couple of days.

Once the new file comes through I will still need to correct the disorganised Jap FTR but that will be pretty straight forwards.

I'd rather do it this way than continuing with the game save file where I manually changed the factory status as, although it appeared to work, I can't be sure I have changed everything I needed to.

If everything that needed to be changed hasn't been, we don't know whether or not we are storing up problems for later.

< Message edited by AllenK -- 3/29/2017 7:40:04 PM >

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RE: Warspite1 Keep Out! - 8/13/2017 6:24:52 PM   
AllenK


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Okay, now we're back up and running, what are the Barbarossa plans once the weather is fine.

Looking at Orm and Warspite's game, I think the advice given about concentrating on one front and making it the southern one, due to the weather, looks sound.

What do you think?

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RE: Warspite1 Keep Out! - 8/13/2017 7:07:48 PM   
Mayhemizer_slith


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Yes. Game is lost but I try to kill as many units as possible.

Para drop and invasion to Estonia to force USSR react. After first impulses (I cross some riverlines in north) tanks will drive to southern front.

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RE: Warspite1 Keep Out! - 8/13/2017 7:10:00 PM   
AllenK


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Sounds a good plan.

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RE: Warspite1 Keep Out! - 8/20/2017 2:49:41 PM   
AllenK


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Okay, this impulse, Japan needs to do a combined to get a couple of CP's and escorts back out to sea. Italy will try a Naval as I want to put some escorts out and try and recover the AT gun from Tripoli.

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RE: Warspite1 Keep Out! - 8/20/2017 3:04:30 PM   
Mayhemizer_slith


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Germany combined. Italian and German fighters to BoB box 2?

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RE: Warspite1 Keep Out! - 8/20/2017 3:16:34 PM   
Mayhemizer_slith


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Actually Germany takes air so that they can ground strike and reirganize planes in Spain.

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RE: Warspite1 Keep Out! - 8/20/2017 3:39:45 PM   
AllenK


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Mayhemizer

Germany combined. Italian and German fighters to BoB box 2?


Yep.

Fine with the Air. Italy can initiate the combat.

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RE: Warspite1 Keep Out! - 8/20/2017 3:43:58 PM   
Mayhemizer_slith


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If German fighters or NAV is aborted, send them to Spain so that I can reorg them.

FTR3 can be front bomber as long as there are real fighters left.

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RE: Warspite1 Keep Out! - 8/20/2017 4:35:37 PM   
AllenK


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Think I might do 1 more Land as Japanese. It's only impulse 5, so there should be time to get CP's to the two China Sea's later.

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RE: Warspite1 Keep Out! - 8/20/2017 6:14:50 PM   
AllenK


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With no success in Biscay, do the Germans still want to ground-strike in the rain?




Attachment (1)

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RE: Warspite1 Keep Out! - 8/20/2017 7:48:20 PM   
Mayhemizer_slith


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No thanks, CW in is supply. If we start retreating to Pynenees, I rebase them out from Spain.

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RE: Warspite1 Keep Out! - 8/21/2017 6:33:06 PM   
AllenK


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Do you want to make any rail moves? I can't see any obvious ones.

In land movement, I suggest you move the MTN to a city so it can be railed to the French-Spanish border. Barcelona maybe?

Edit: With it being an air move, you can only rail air units. There is the Bf-109 in Spain 64,22 that could be railed east.

< Message edited by AllenK -- 8/21/2017 6:40:03 PM >

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RE: Warspite1 Keep Out! - 8/21/2017 6:44:05 PM   
Mayhemizer_slith


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Rail it to east. Send file to me for rebase. I need to leave some planes for defense but most planes start rebasing east.

I need to get to bed early today.

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RE: Warspite1 Keep Out! - 8/22/2017 8:07:53 PM   
Mayhemizer_slith


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Axis units should start retreating to Pyrenees and take positions from French coast.

Mountain units goes to Pyrenees, I keep elite GAR, MIL and MTN div in Gibraltar.

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RE: Warspite1 Keep Out! - 8/22/2017 8:12:14 PM   
AllenK


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Agreed.

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RE: Warspite1 Keep Out! - 8/22/2017 8:43:05 PM   
Centuur


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Make it a slow moving withdrawal. Don't "advertise" this move to the Allies, if possible...

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RE: Warspite1 Keep Out! - 8/22/2017 8:49:44 PM   
Mayhemizer_slith


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Game 2: Time to get to bed. I need to check the situation, it's so long when I played that game last time...

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RE: Warspite1 Keep Out! - 8/24/2017 7:42:06 AM   
Mayhemizer_slith


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Game 1:

What a summer, turn is about to end.

Should we start barbarossa or spend remaining turn to bring more planes to east?

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RE: Warspite1 Keep Out! - 8/24/2017 7:51:06 AM   
AllenK


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Without looking at the map, I'd say go. This is as much about destroying units as capturing ground. The earlier you start the better. Delaying until the new turn just lets USSR get stronger.

Annoyed about Manchuria. I seem to be getting good at getting my units pocketed at the moment .

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RE: Warspite1 Keep Out! - 8/24/2017 3:32:49 PM   
Mayhemizer_slith


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USSR will be conquered before winter, let the war begin

Break the pact, DoW with Germany and Italy.

Germany takes land. Can Italy take comb/naval? They could initiate combat in BoB and we need 2 air actions with Italy in the east (paradrop and rebase Stuka).

German Ju88 ground strikes in south stack with HQ and ARM (if it still is there and AA gun is not next to them). I think I use other air actions to rebase planes and use lots of ground support.

< Message edited by Mayhemizer -- 8/24/2017 3:34:32 PM >

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RE: Warspite1 Keep Out! - 8/25/2017 4:46:20 PM   
AllenK


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Just checking but I presume Germany will align Rumania?

If so, you'll need to set up the forces or send me instructions.

< Message edited by AllenK -- 8/25/2017 5:03:44 PM >

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RE: Warspite1 Keep Out! - 8/25/2017 5:15:40 PM   
Mayhemizer_slith


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Align and place them to front line so that I can easily move them.


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RE: Warspite1 Keep Out! - 8/25/2017 7:52:20 PM   
AllenK


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Germany land. Italy and Japan combined.

The Italian ships in the West Med return to La Spezia.

Japan sends CP's to China and South China Seas.

The Axis decline most of the sea areas available for combat but the Italian FTR initiates in Biscay. Do the Allies wish to add the Spitfire at Bilbao to the mix?

Edit: Wrong thread .

< Message edited by AllenK -- 8/25/2017 7:53:55 PM >

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