topeverest
Posts: 3376
Joined: 10/17/2007
From: Houston, TX - USA
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Gents, let me try to explain.
Let me try to explain my math and approach to determining a better, certainly not best, approach to the Russian force mix. IRL I am a corporate finance manager, and I deal in complex models as a matter of course. And of course, my mind eventually wandered to build a model to view the various options / determine the various optimization schemes and how they limit other options.
To begin, I determined the total number of APs awarded the Russian player in Scenario 1. I also decomposed every support unit by forwarding a solo game through 1943 and recording elements, and their changes over time. In this part of the exercise, I also tracked the cost to build units / when they change or become unavailable, etc.
With that in the hopper, I moved on to determining the maximum in-command Russian armed forces size. 14 Fronts with maximum 99 APs and STAVKA, which I assumed would act as another front for simplicity’s sake. 15 x 99 = 1,485 in command capacity as hypothesized. That equates to 742.5 division equivalents not using corps. I tallied 508 divisions and 221 brigades on the OOB excluding the Soviet minors. This is an equivalent of 618.5 divisions, or 124 divisions shy of max capacity.
But of course, enter corps and modeling gets a bit three dimensional. This is because
1. Infantry corps gain 1 AP if built with 2 divisions and 1 brigade
2. Mechanized, Motorized, and Armor have -1 AP effect when converting to corps
3. Cavalry gains 2 AP’s because three divisions (6 AP) become 4
So in a hypothetic force deployment of entirely Infantry, mot/mec/arm, or cavalry, we get three different end points for force capacity.
1. Infantry. 1485 / 4 = 371 net AP gain = +371.
2. mot / mech / arm. Same capacity. Net AP effect -371
3. Cavalry. Same capacity. Net AP effect +742
This equates to the following needs at the goal posts, which help determine trade offs with actual, viable force combinations (excluding effect of trucks)
1. Infantry. 742 divisions and 371 brigades needed. Net 234D and 150B needed, but I would have to disband / waste many AP’s, so this isn’t really an option, even if it is possible in the game
2. mot / mech / arm. 1114 brigades needed. Not worth calculating as impossible due to AP and truck costs
3. Cavalry = 1114 divisions needed. Effectively impossible due to the AP costs associated with disbanding infantry
Next I looked at the Front itself, and pondered several major themes
• How many armies of what type are needed? I struggled here, but finally opted for a historical approach to embedded armor and cavalry. So in my applied model, I chose to deploy 99 points as follows (excludes STAVKA)
i. 1 tank army with 3 armor corps & 3 brigades 4th corps added after guard
ii. 1 combined arms cavalry army with 4 cavalry corps
iii. 4 combined arms infantry army each with 4 infantry corps
iv. 4 points leftover for brigades or 2 artillery / rocket divisions
• STAVKA. I deployed the 5 shock armies
a. Army – all mountain divisions for use in caucuses
b. Army – all airborne guard divisions
c. Army – 5 mechanized corps
d. Army – 10 artillery divisions
e. Army – 10 rocket artillery divisions
f. 12 freestanding brigades
Discussion – of course this is a hypothetical on-map force deployment, which would be confounded by unit losses, the need for unit density, and unplanned use of AP’s (AP and Truck discussion for another post), but it is FAR closer to a good deployment than what I have done. The key hypothesis in this deployment schedule is that having armor and cavalry corps in every front creates pressure in every theater.
AS FAR AS THE CURRENT game, clearly I had no idea what I was doing when I made builds, and it is not possible to deploy armor and cavalry the way I postulate above. That leaves me with a force design that has to be somewhat different. Compound that with my worry about tanking trucks, and I am more than modestly concerned that adding armor, motorized, and mechanized at this time has uncertain outcomes due to my unfamiliarity with this part of the war.
With that assumed that I will build few amror, mech, mot from this point forward, that means my “full” force deployment. Considering the force deployment I currently have, which isn’t materially different from the posting counting end of July above,
1. I don’t need to build any armies
2. I need 179 corps formations to max out the fronts at 99 points. When counting up my current divisions – and assuming they will all be infantry corps, I need those 95 divisions and 74 brigades – or 22 turns of building
3. New corps will be built thereafter
4. New support units will not be built until after all the corps are built. That said, I can move them around and while it will be somewhat slim, it isn’t fatal
5. My key question is if to build out cavalry so that it appears as an army in every front. I am currently organized to deploy cavalry to only 5 fronts. If I were to build it out for 14 and get more armor and guard corps deployed to the game, that would be 9 fronts x 4 corps per front x 3 divisions per corps = 108 cavalry divisions. That would drop the need for 72 infantry divisions and 36 infantry brigades, or 110 AP’s net cost excluding cost to organize
SO – that is what I was talking about with the number of divisions and brigades I should build. Please advise, as what I am proposing is far better than what I have already done.
In any event as always, I am encouraged by the assistance offered.
< Message edited by topeverest -- 12/23/2017 2:58:59 PM >
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Andy M
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