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RE: Shannon vrsus Z - 5/15/2017 7:44:48 AM   
Shannon V. OKeets

 

Posts: 22095
Joined: 5/19/2005
From: Honolulu, Hawaii
Status: offline 		End of Turn Jan/Feb 1940.

Last in this series.

Reinforcements for Mar/Apr 1940.

This is what I saw when I looked at the USSR builds. No Russian infantry in Mar/Apr and only 1 in May/Jun. Which means only 2 in Jul/Aug and 3 in Sep/Oct. Z will have to choose between building regular Inf or Militia. The later arrive faster, but then there will be no regular infantry the next turn. Militia also have the annoying habit of arriving in central Asia and needing to be railed to the front.

There are some very nice Russian units coming in in Jul/Aug. But that may be too late.

Germany has already built both armor HQ, which will be very useful.

The trick is going to be getting the German units from the west to the east. Rail moves and air rebases: 3 and 4 respectively with a Land Action. 1 and 6 with a Combined.




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Steve

Perfection is an elusive goal.

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Post #: 91
RE: Shannon vrsus Z - 5/15/2017 3:03:04 PM   
Jagdtiger14


Posts: 1686
Joined: 1/22/2008
From: Miami Beach
Status: offline 		I think Mayhemizer started an AAR on this theme...forget France, go east immediately.

Putting aside the military aspects of this strategy, the economics are terrible. Besides the 7 pact resources, the Belgian/French resources are expected by the end of M/J or J/A...plus the Spanish resource.

The Allies will have little threat to their convoy lines, produce well, build interesting units, bomb German/Italian factories, mess with the Baltic, devise devious strategies, etc, etc...

_____________________________

Conflict with the unexpected: two qualities are indispensable; first, an intellect which, even in the midst of this obscurity, is not without some traces of inner light which lead to the truth; second, the courage to follow this faint light. KvC

(in reply to Shannon V. OKeets)
Post #: 92
RE: Shannon vrsus Z - 5/15/2017 5:00:59 PM   
Shannon V. OKeets

 

Posts: 22095
Joined: 5/19/2005
From: Honolulu, Hawaii
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Jagdtiger14

I think Mayhemizer started an AAR on this theme...forget France, go east immediately.

Putting aside the military aspects of this strategy, the economics are terrible. Besides the 7 pact resources, the Belgian/French resources are expected by the end of M/J or J/A...plus the Spanish resource.

The Allies will have little threat to their convoy lines, produce well, build interesting units, bomb German/Italian factories, mess with the Baltic, devise devious strategies, etc, etc...

Some of the Pact resources (3 non-oil and 2 oil) are offset by the 2 build points. With a German production multiple of 0.75, the build points consume ~3 resources: net loss to Germany of 1.75 BPs. On the other hand, the USSR has a PM of 0.25, so the 2 Pact build points are a gain for them. Also they have more resources than factories. All-in-all it is close to a wash.

But you are right about the other impacts.

Now, how about reducing the USSR to 14 BPs starting Jan/Feb 1941? That is with a USSR PM of 1. Germany also gains some resources just getting to the Volga. If they make it to the Caucasus, then there are 10 more resources pouring in. The two front war it going to be tough for the Germans though. On the other hand, the USSR is going to have problems with Japan (they are losing Vladivostok in Jul/Aug 1940) and have made only limited progress in Manchuria.

From the position I found the Axis in, Japan was going to have a fistful of difficulties if the Germans hadn't moved east in 1940.

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Steve

Perfection is an elusive goal.

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Post #: 93
RE: Shannon vrsus Z - 5/15/2017 5:15:31 PM   
Centuur


Posts: 8802
Joined: 6/3/2011
From: Hoorn (NED).
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets


quote:

ORIGINAL: Jagdtiger14

I think Mayhemizer started an AAR on this theme...forget France, go east immediately.

Putting aside the military aspects of this strategy, the economics are terrible. Besides the 7 pact resources, the Belgian/French resources are expected by the end of M/J or J/A...plus the Spanish resource.

The Allies will have little threat to their convoy lines, produce well, build interesting units, bomb German/Italian factories, mess with the Baltic, devise devious strategies, etc, etc...

Some of the Pact resources (3 non-oil and 2 oil) are offset by the 2 build points. With a German production multiple of 0.75, the build points consume ~3 resources: net loss to Germany of 1.75 BPs. On the other hand, the USSR has a PM of 0.25, so the 2 Pact build points are a gain for them. Also they have more resources than factories. All-in-all it is close to a wash.

But you are right about the other impacts.

Now, how about reducing the USSR to 14 BPs starting Jan/Feb 1941? That is with a USSR PM of 1. Germany also gains some resources just getting to the Volga. If they make it to the Caucasus, then there are 10 more resources pouring in. The two front war it going to be tough for the Germans though. On the other hand, the USSR is going to have problems with Japan (they are losing Vladivostok in Jul/Aug 1940) and have made only limited progress in Manchuria.

From the position I found the Axis in, Japan was going to have a fistful of difficulties if the Germans hadn't moved east in 1940.


It will be a very tough fight, that's for sure. One thing helps for Germany, that is the fact that the USSR is at war with Japan too. But US entry is probably going skyhigh.
Don't underestimate the French. Sure, they have a lot of crappy units and they can't cooperate with the CW. But if the USA decides to start sending over build points to the French (and resources), the French can start building the airforce and with the Luftwaffe in full action in the East, the Allied fleet can start doing all kind of nasty things against the Italians...

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Post #: 94
RE: Shannon vrsus Z - 5/15/2017 5:41:48 PM   
Jagdtiger14


Posts: 1686
Joined: 1/22/2008
From: Miami Beach
Status: offline 		In this scenario as the Allies, I would look to force my way into the Baltic (Denmark, Norway). Keep Germany from getting the 3 Swedish resources (and Finn resource), force Germany to garrison the Baltics...slow German progress eastwards with just the threat...if not taken seriously perhaps landing in the Baltics, and/or take out Finland.

_____________________________

Conflict with the unexpected: two qualities are indispensable; first, an intellect which, even in the midst of this obscurity, is not without some traces of inner light which lead to the truth; second, the courage to follow this faint light. KvC

(in reply to Centuur)
Post #: 95
RE: Shannon vrsus Z - 5/16/2017 1:36:36 AM   
Courtenay


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets

It's been a while - sorry about that. But you wanted me to be working on the code anyway - right?


Right!

< Message edited by Courtenay -- 5/16/2017 1:37:28 AM >

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Post #: 96
RE: Shannon vrsus Z - 5/16/2017 8:40:35 PM   
Shannon V. OKeets

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Jagdtiger14

In this scenario as the Allies, I would look to force my way into the Baltic (Denmark, Norway). Keep Germany from getting the 3 Swedish resources (and Finn resource), force Germany to garrison the Baltics...slow German progress eastwards with just the threat...if not taken seriously perhaps landing in the Baltics, and/or take out Finland.

The Allies have no invasion units (no AMPHs, no marines, no paras, no infantry divisions) at the present (something I took into consideration). By the time they are available it will be winter in the North Temperate and Arctic. So those operations will have to wait until spring 1941.

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Steve

Perfection is an elusive goal.

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Post #: 97
RE: Shannon vrsus Z - 5/17/2017 1:18:36 AM   
Shannon V. OKeets

 

Posts: 22095
Joined: 5/19/2005
From: Honolulu, Hawaii
Status: offline 		I didn't make enough saved games for the Mar/Apr and May/Jun 1940 turns, but I was able to dig up enough to show what happened.

I was counting on going first (84% probability) because the Allies started and ended the last turn and the Initiative was at Axis +1. I lost both the first roll and the second roll. Arghh.

Then there was the weather, ...




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Steve

Perfection is an elusive goal.

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Post #: 98
RE: Shannon vrsus Z - 5/17/2017 1:33:27 AM   
Shannon V. OKeets

 

Posts: 22095
Joined: 5/19/2005
From: Honolulu, Hawaii
Status: offline 		If the Axis had moved first I was planning to put an Italian transport loaded with an 4-3 Inf in the Eastern Med along with a supporting naval fleet. First the fighter/bomber would have ground struck Alexandria.

Then I would have landed the 4-3 Inf on Balbo and most likely have had the 2-2 Art move up for a 15:6 attack, with some Shore Bombardment points and Balbo throwing in his support, making it a +7 Assault minimum. A really dangerous attack: if it fails the Italian are toast; if it succeeds, there would be no Allied unit in Egypt.

An alternative was to move the 4-3 Inf due east 1 hex, and keep him out of the attack. That way, the 4-3 would have been available to move on Cairo next impulse.

None of that was to be. The British and French navy was too powerful in the 3 Mediterranean sea areas for such risky Italian adventures.






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< Message edited by Shannon V. OKeets -- 5/17/2017 1:38:10 AM >

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Steve

Perfection is an elusive goal.

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Post #: 99
RE: Shannon vrsus Z - 5/17/2017 1:42:41 AM   
Shannon V. OKeets

 

Posts: 22095
Joined: 5/19/2005
From: Honolulu, Hawaii
Status: offline 		Mar/Apr 1940 Impulse 3 (Axis to move).

Here are those imposing British and French naval forces. All of the French have put to sea, but the British still have units on call in Gibraltar. Note the two transports - which are going to quickly take the land units to Egypt in the next Allied impulse.




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Steve

Perfection is an elusive goal.

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Post #: 100
RE: Shannon vrsus Z - 5/20/2017 10:15:06 PM   
Shannon V. OKeets

 

Posts: 22095
Joined: 5/19/2005
From: Honolulu, Hawaii
Status: offline 		Mar/Apr 1940 (turn 4), Impulse 3.

Here is the situation in the Italian Alps.

I am going to pull back from Nice because the French are getting an extra 0.25 on their production multiple for the Italians occupying France. The Italian HQ is railing to Poland to provide supply for an Axis advance into the Ukraine. Them more units will rail in behind Graziani.

These moves are in concert with the Germans not invading Belgium. If they were, then holding Nice would be correct, since it stretches the French front line in the south.




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Steve

Perfection is an elusive goal.

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Post #: 101
RE: Shannon vrsus Z - 5/20/2017 10:23:41 PM   
Shannon V. OKeets

 

Posts: 22095
Joined: 5/19/2005
From: Honolulu, Hawaii
Status: offline 		Mar/Apr 1940 Impulse 3 (Axis to move).

Manchuria.

In the first impulse of this turn the Japanese lost a 4-2 Manchurian unit holding the frontline to the the east. But that unit will magically reappear at the start of the next turn (costing 2 BPs with a 1 turn arrival).

I moved the 6-3 east into a mountain hex, even though it disorganized the unit. The 2-3 also headed in that direction.

The USSR is also struggling with the weather in this area. Although they continue to slog forward, enveloping the two elite corps in the northernmost city.




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Steve

Perfection is an elusive goal.

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Post #: 102
RE: Shannon vrsus Z - 5/20/2017 10:27:20 PM   
Shannon V. OKeets

 

Posts: 22095
Joined: 5/19/2005
From: Honolulu, Hawaii
Status: offline 		Mar/Apr 1940 Impulse 3 (Axis to move).

Northern China.

Almost no movement here. The 5-3-2 Japanese HQ is stuck OOS. He is two hexes from a rail line and supply is 2 hexes. He needs a third hex to get overseas to primary supply in Japan.




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Steve

Perfection is an elusive goal.

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Post #: 103
RE: Shannon vrsus Z - 5/20/2017 10:31:11 PM   
Shannon V. OKeets

 

Posts: 22095
Joined: 5/19/2005
From: Honolulu, Hawaii
Status: offline 		Mar/Apr 1940 Impulse 3 (Axis to move).

Northern Russia.

I thought I would be able to move the ski unit into Pskov - forgetting the the Cav has a ZOC preventing that.

It all works out to the good though. The Russians occupy Pskov next impulse when the weather turns to snow but the Finnish ski unit finds supply from a German HQ and moves 4 hexes due east!

[EDIT: I got the sequence wrong. The Russian occupation of Pskov and the move of the Finnish ski units east didn't happen until May/Jun 1940.]




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< Message edited by Shannon V. OKeets -- 5/20/2017 11:05:08 PM >

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Steve

Perfection is an elusive goal.

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Post #: 104
RE: Shannon vrsus Z - 5/20/2017 10:34:01 PM   
Shannon V. OKeets

 

Posts: 22095
Joined: 5/19/2005
From: Honolulu, Hawaii
Status: offline 		Mar/Apr 1940 Impulse 3 (Axis to move).

Southern Russia.

Here is where I rail in the Italian HQ to provide supply for the German units around Brest-Litovsk.






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Steve

Perfection is an elusive goal.

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Post #: 105
RE: Shannon vrsus Z - 5/20/2017 11:00:03 PM   
Shannon V. OKeets

 

Posts: 22095
Joined: 5/19/2005
From: Honolulu, Hawaii
Status: offline 		Mar/Apr 1940, Impulse 5 - Allies to move.

The weather turned nasty.






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Steve

Perfection is an elusive goal.

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Post #: 106
RE: Shannon vrsus Z - 5/20/2017 11:36:19 PM   
Shannon V. OKeets

 

Posts: 22095
Joined: 5/19/2005
From: Honolulu, Hawaii
Status: offline 		Mar/Apr 1940 Impulse 5 - Allies to move.

Russia.

Here you can see the beginnings of the German's serious move to the east (from the previous impulse).

In the previous turn (Jan/Feb 1940) I had moved the HQ (von Leeb) into Prussia along with an Inf corps and the tank destroyer (movement of 6 was important if the weather had been anything decent). I had also rebased the long range fighter to protect von Leeb from ground strikes. The Italians had railed a garrison unit to Pozan to act as garrison in Poland in future turns.

---

In the first Axis impulse of this turn (Rain in the Arctic and Northern Temperate), the Germans took a Combined. Only one rail move, which was the militia to Warsaw.

All the railed units from the previous turn plodded forward a hex or two each. So too did the units around Brest-Litovsk. There were limited land moves, so not everyone got to get their boots muddy. The big commitment was the rebasing of 6 air units east. The bomber to Brest-Litovsk (within range of both Minsk and Lvov), a fighter to Czechoslovakia (he is hurrying to protect the Rumanian oil fields), and a group of 4 short range units around Pozan. The last are headed to do damage to Minsk. They will be joined by a 6 tactical Stuka which will arrive as a reinforcement next turn in Konigsberg. The Italians rebased a long range bomber to threaten all the Russian units in Ukraine and Rumania.

This screenshot is of the Allies 2nd impulse, and the weather has changed to Blizzard in the Arctic and North Temperate. They don't have many units to move and aren't permitted to rail out any factories because there are no Axis units in supply in Russia proper.







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Steve

Perfection is an elusive goal.

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Post #: 107
RE: Shannon vrsus Z - 5/20/2017 11:49:26 PM   
Shannon V. OKeets

 

Posts: 22095
Joined: 5/19/2005
From: Honolulu, Hawaii
Status: offline 		Mar/Apr 1940 Impulse 5 - Allies to move.

Manchuria

The Japanese pushed a couple of unit east last impulse (Rain) even though they became disorganized. That doesn't turn out well for the 2-3 Territorial.

Note that the fighter has rebased within range of the surrounded Japanese units. Z didn't notice that and it cost him one of those deadly TB-3 bombers when he tried to ground strike those OOS units [in impulse 11 of this turn].

The terrible weather slows down the USSR only slightly. That's because the swamp hexes are treated as forest so his units aren't disorganized when they move into them.




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Steve

Perfection is an elusive goal.

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Post #: 108
RE: Shannon vrsus Z - 5/20/2017 11:53:35 PM   
Shannon V. OKeets

 

Posts: 22095
Joined: 5/19/2005
From: Honolulu, Hawaii
Status: offline 		Mar/Apr 1940 Impulse 5 - Allies to move.

China

The Japanese have advanced in central China. They didn't make any attacks but they are putting pressure on the Chinese units north of Ichang. My idea here was to induce Z to pull back to the mountains, Ichang, and below the Yangtze. If he has to spread out his units, perhaps one of them will be vulnerable.




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Steve

Perfection is an elusive goal.

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Post #: 109
RE: Shannon vrsus Z - 5/21/2017 4:32:25 PM   
Courtenay


Posts: 4003
Joined: 11/12/2008
Status: offline 		I have lost track of US entry options. How are the Allies coming on getting resources to Russia?

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RE: Shannon vrsus Z - 5/21/2017 9:05:39 PM   
Shannon V. OKeets

 

Posts: 22095
Joined: 5/19/2005
From: Honolulu, Hawaii
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Courtenay

I have lost track of US entry options. How are the Allies coming on getting resources to Russia?

There are 8, 2 Ge/It US Entry Pool, Tension Pool, and 2, 2 markers in the Japanese.

The USSR isn't receiving any help from the Allies as of Mar/Apr 1940, but that changes next turn.

The USSR has 29 functioning factories with a PM of 0.5 for 15 BPs.

What is kind of strange is that the Leningrad factories are working because there are resources being railed through neutral Latvia - something I hadn't expected when I cut the rail lines to Leningrad through the USSR proper. Once again the program executed the rules correctly, when over the board we would have got this wrong.

_____________________________

Steve

Perfection is an elusive goal.

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Post #: 111
RE: Shannon vrsus Z - 5/24/2017 5:09:40 PM   
Shannon V. OKeets

 

Posts: 22095
Joined: 5/19/2005
From: Honolulu, Hawaii
Status: offline 		Mar/Apr 1940, Impulse 5, Allies to move.

Egypt

I used Emergency supply with Balbo, which put the artillery and 4-3 Inf in supply and able to move without becoming disrupted. The obvious threat here is to move the Inf into Cairo. The Brits can prevent this by moving the Eng to Cairo, but then the Inf can run into Port Said (for example). So the Territorial would also have to move to prevent that. Z took another path - see the next post on Egypt.




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Steve

Perfection is an elusive goal.

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Post #: 112
RE: Shannon vrsus Z - 5/24/2017 5:16:16 PM   
Shannon V. OKeets

 

Posts: 22095
Joined: 5/19/2005
From: Honolulu, Hawaii
Status: offline 		Mar/Apr 1940, Impulse 8, Axis to move.

Egypt

The 4-2 Militia was transported out of Gibraltar in a Combined Action. This saves Cairo - for now. I thought about moving the Italian Inf next to Cairo in the given screenshot, but decided to wait another 2 impulses with the hope of ending the turn and then being able to start the next turn by capturing Cairo. Alas, I never got a third impulse in this turn. It was a shaky idea at best anyway.

On the plus side, Z took a Combined because of Egypt, which is delaying his contesting the Baltic Sea, so the Axis convoys there are unmolested.




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Steve

Perfection is an elusive goal.

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Post #: 113
RE: Shannon vrsus Z - 5/24/2017 5:19:25 PM   
Shannon V. OKeets

 

Posts: 22095
Joined: 5/19/2005
From: Honolulu, Hawaii
Status: offline 		Mar/Apr 1940, Impulse 11

Weather

The weather finally breaks in the North Temperate, although the Arctic still has Rain.




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Steve

Perfection is an elusive goal.

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Post #: 114
RE: Shannon vrsus Z - 5/24/2017 5:22:55 PM   
Shannon V. OKeets

 

Posts: 22095
Joined: 5/19/2005
From: Honolulu, Hawaii
Status: offline 		Mar/Apr 1940, Impulse 11 - All Allied land moves completed.

Egypt

The Commonwealth brought an artillery unit to the battle in Egypt. Once it successfully ground strikes the Italian Inf, the following land attack will be automatic.






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Steve

Perfection is an elusive goal.

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Post #: 115
RE: Shannon vrsus Z - 5/24/2017 5:24:28 PM   
Shannon V. OKeets

 

Posts: 22095
Joined: 5/19/2005
From: Honolulu, Hawaii
Status: offline 		Mar/Apr 1940, Impulse 11 - All Allied land moves completed.

Italian Alps

Things are quiet here. France's production multiple is back down to 0.75.




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Steve

Perfection is an elusive goal.

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Post #: 116
RE: Shannon vrsus Z - 5/24/2017 5:26:30 PM   
Shannon V. OKeets

 

Posts: 22095
Joined: 5/19/2005
From: Honolulu, Hawaii
Status: offline 		Mar/Apr 1940, Impulse 11 - All Allied land moves completed.

Belgium

Things are quiet here too. The German HQs have left, but there is a lot of combat factors remaining.




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_____________________________

Steve

Perfection is an elusive goal.

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Post #: 117
RE: Shannon vrsus Z - 5/24/2017 5:32:25 PM   
Shannon V. OKeets

 

Posts: 22095
Joined: 5/19/2005
From: Honolulu, Hawaii
Status: offline 		Mar/Apr 1940, Impulse 11 - All Allied land moves completed.

Manchuria

The Russians will do an automatic attack on the surrounded 2-3 territorial. The successful ground strike followed by killing the Japanese bomber (that is about to try to provide ground support) made for sad tidings in Tokyo.




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Steve

Perfection is an elusive goal.

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Post #: 118
RE: Shannon vrsus Z - 5/24/2017 5:35:43 PM   
Shannon V. OKeets

 

Posts: 22095
Joined: 5/19/2005
From: Honolulu, Hawaii
Status: offline 		Mar/Apr 1940, Impulse 11 - All Allied land moves completed.

China

The Japanese are all excited about being able to move all their units in China. So many things to do. But the turn ends at this point - with the units in this theater essentially right where they started the turn.




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Steve

Perfection is an elusive goal.

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Post #: 119
RE: Shannon vrsus Z - 5/24/2017 5:40:39 PM   
Shannon V. OKeets

 

Posts: 22095
Joined: 5/19/2005
From: Honolulu, Hawaii
Status: offline 		Mar/Apr 1940, End of Turn

I'll now make a series of posts reviewing the map (land units mainly).

Egypt and the Italian Alps were just shown above. So I'll start with a broader view of the Lowlands.






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Steve

Perfection is an elusive goal.

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Post #: 120
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