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RE: 8MP to T54: Air closes the team AAR

 
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RE: 8MP to T54: Air closes the team AAR - 3/17/2019 4:48:15 PM   
Telemecus


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Turn 54 1-Jul-1942 Air - Step 3: What will it take to stop all the enemy fighters from flying?

Given that we know the percentage required to fly take a look at the number of ready aircraft in their fighter airgroups and consider what it would take for them to stop flying?

The above shows the state of three airbases in one hex only after their detection level was raised to five. Each airbase has eight air groups - a total of 24. But we can see now, still at the start of the turn, ten of these airgroups (stamped with crosses next to their name) actually already have less than the 10 fighters they would need in their airgroup to fly at all. The 87 fighters in these airgroups will remain on the airbase and never fly during this turn - they are only there to be victims. Four other airgroups only need to lose one or two fighters and they too will no longer fly at all. And this is indeed likely to happen in the whole turn just as they chase recon sorties or escort ground support. Although they are not yet on the no-fly list - they may as well be. So in reality, in spite of the impressive looking line up of 24 fighter air groups, only 10 are really effective. And if they lose a total of 51 ready aircraft they too would stop flying. (numbers in red after each airgroup show how many they will lose to stop flying)

In practice some of those airgroups would be set to night only missions. And for every fighter shot down in a fighter sweep there are usually two or three that simply move from ready status to damaged or reserved. So in reality these airgroups are only ten or twenty losses from not flying at all.




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< Message edited by Telemecus -- 4/15/2019 3:18:32 PM >

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RE: 8MP to T54: Air closes the team AAR - 3/17/2019 5:18:41 PM   
Telemecus


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Turn 54 1-Jul-1942 Air - Step 3: What will it take to stop all the enemy fighters from flying? continued

Here is the same analysis applied to another hex of airbases in the same cluster. These fighter air groups have slightly healthier numbers meaning they need to lose more than 100 ready status fighters before they no longer fly.




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< Message edited by Telemecus -- 3/17/2019 5:22:35 PM >


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RE: 8MP to T54: Air closes the team AAR - 3/17/2019 5:40:57 PM   
Telemecus


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Turn 54 1-Jul-1942 Air - Step 4: Use recon to find out where enemy fighters would fly to?

When this game started this question was usually just is the airgroup set to a night mission or not. But later versions have introduced a maximum range for each individual airgroup which can be set by the player. So just because a long range fighter like P40-B is set to day missions, it might no longer fly as far as it can because the player has capped it at a much shorter range. In turn 53 we used recon to find fighters would intercept at 3 hexes away from their airbase, then found at 4 hexes they no longer did, and when reconning at 3 hexes distance found the same interceptors again. This established that these airgroups had had their maximum ranges set at 3 hexes.




This turn we find that the two hexes of airbases described have an air range that is either uncapped, or capped at a large number of hexes (indicated by the red arrows from them in the picture). But remarkably none of the other bases have fighters that fly at all. Sometimes this is because those air groups are set to night missions only, or their airbases have run out of fuel or ammo. We know at least some of the fighter airgroups in other bases have more than the 50% ready requirement to fly so it is not because of air doctrine. This turn they are not in swamps or urban hexes. It is also possible to stop aircraft from flying at all by setting their maximum range to 1, as is often done deliberately for example for airgroups needing to recover from fatigue. However M60A3TTS has since indicated that this was due to confusion over the dimensions of the air range measure.

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< Message edited by Telemecus -- 3/17/2019 5:43:02 PM >

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RE: 8MP to T54: Air closes the team AAR - 3/17/2019 5:59:49 PM   
Crackaces


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As the forum can see .. everything I have learned is from a MP game with Telemecus. That is why I saw the MP game as such a great experience for a sophomore such as myself. Alas, the game did provide a connection and I continue to use Telemecus as a resource. My thought is that this game will continue at some point as MP. It is a great way for a very experienced player to take newbies under their wing.

This game is extremely complex. This weekend was spent just discussing the ramifications of HQ overload and distribution of units. Exacerbated even more by a foray into the Caucuses.. more to come on that !

But there are so many nuances in this game from the air war described above to shaping retreat routes. It is very difficult to master every aspect of this game. There are players good at pushing counters around and real masters that understand every aspect of this game. It is through a MP game I was able to be exposed to these incredibly complex concepts at the very least.

Again I hope the game evolves back into MP.

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RE: 8MP to T54: Air closes the team AAR - 3/17/2019 6:01:30 PM   
Telemecus


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Turn 54 1-Jul-1942 Air - Step 5: Decision time! Sweep then Bomb, Bomb then Sweep, or Run and Hide?

We now know that the difference between Soviet fighters flying or not flying at all is just over 150 ready aircraft. This would usually equate to losing about 30 or 40 fighters in combat, when the rest of the required reduction would come from enemy fighters going unready or damaged. This is not a large number. If the whole strength of the Luftwaffe was brought out to achieve this it would be achievable. And the benefits would be considerable. The Axis fighter forces could spend the rest of the game resting - or intercepting unescorted enemy bombers. The Axis bomber forces could bomb all enemy airfields in daylight without interception and without need for escort and similarly support the ground forces without having to call on the fighters. A characteristic of the 8MP game is that for 40 turns or so this number has been so small.

Conventionally the margin between the enemy fighter force flying or not flying is large and this is simply not a prospect. It certainly was not for the first half dozen turns of this game. This situation can be avoided by keeping the percentage required to fly at a healthy margin away from the percentage of ready aircraft in airgroups on the map. If you are putting Soviet fighter airgroups on the map with only 9 ready aircraft out of twenty, then you should be thinking of a percentage required to fly of 20% or lower at least. We know in this game there has been a shortage of fighter aircraft to equip air groups. In this situation you do need to manually set your replacement settings so that only a few (and probably your best) airgroups get replacements - leaving all on replacements on when there is a shortage is a mistake. It is better to have half of your air force at full strength then all your air force at half strength.

Given the strengths and disposition of the Soviet fighter force we decide to go for it and try to ground the Soviet fighter force at the start of the game so that we can reap the benefits of their non-interference for the rest of the turn. It is a risk though as if we do not ground the Soviet fighter force, our own fighters will be too ground down to effectively escort our bombers for the rest of the turn.

< Message edited by Telemecus -- 3/17/2019 7:04:29 PM >

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RE: 8MP to T54: Air closes the team AAR - 3/17/2019 6:18:50 PM   
Telemecus


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Turn 54 1-Jul-1942 Air - Step 6: Fighter Sweeps

You can use airbase bombing, city bombing or ground bombing but the principle is the same, just deselect the bombers and you have a dogfight between your fighters and theirs. In all I conducted 12 fighter sweeps this turn. After each fighter sweep I would check the number of ready aircraft on each airgroup and see that the numbers were dropping each time by far more than the number of aircraft they lost in combat. The fighter sweep process is very effective as, by definition, only those airgroups that can still fly, will participate in the next fighter sweep - bombing airfields still means some bombs will go on airgroups and aircraft that are unready to fly. By the final fighter sweeps you end up with almost the whole Luftwaffe versus the one or two soviet fighter groups still flying. Spam recon can help too - but never by as much as fighter sweeps and if only recon spam it will be counter-productive. But if you are down to just needing to ground one more Soviet fighter group to be fighter free ....




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< Message edited by Telemecus -- 3/17/2019 7:16:49 PM >

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RE: 8MP to T54: Air closes the team AAR - 3/17/2019 6:28:39 PM   
Telemecus


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Turn 54 1-Jul-1942 Air - Step 7: Party Time!

Then there comes the point when the last Soviet fighter air group stops flying. You can see this by checking all the enemy airbases and seeing all the fighter airgroups are now below their percentage required to fly air doctrine. I wish I had made of a screenshot of them at the time - it is a moment of jubilation. But you can also check by flying recon on the airbases and seeing they do not get intercepted. Once you reach this point turn all your fighters to a maximum range of 1 - they are going to spend the rest of the turn resting.

Now your bomber boys get to work - and with no fighters to bother them it is party time! The picture shows one of the 24 airfield bombing raids conducted this turn.




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< Message edited by Telemecus -- 3/17/2019 6:38:11 PM >

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RE: 8MP to T54: Air closes the team AAR - 3/17/2019 6:35:00 PM   
Telemecus


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Turn 54 1-Jul-1942 Air - Losses

Although we are not inflicting the four figure losses we achieved for four turns in 1941, the process is still nevertheless the same. And I believe the big lesson is choose the percentage required to fly in your air doctrine very carefully.




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< Message edited by Telemecus -- 3/17/2019 7:05:35 PM >

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RE: 8MP to T54: Air closes the team AAR - 3/17/2019 6:51:20 PM   
Sammy5IsAlive

 

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First things first - I think the stuff Telemecus is doing here is really exceptional in terms of the dedication shown to really get into the nuts and bolts of what is a pretty opaque air war module. I don't think there is anything wrong with it at all in terms of 'sportsmanship' - he has always been very upfront about the way he plays and so anyone playing vs him knows what kind of game it is going to be and the kind of micromanaging moves that will be required to keep up with this.

That said, roll on the WITW/WITE2 air module as I think that what this AAR has demonstrated is that in the hands of players that are prepared to "femto-manage" (in the words of Crackaces), the current IGO/UGO air module is pretty broken in terms of a game mechanic that is accessible to 95% of the playerbase

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RE: 8MP to T54: Air closes the team AAR - 3/17/2019 9:34:04 PM   
Crackaces


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

First things first - I think the stuff Telemecus is doing here is really exceptional in terms of the dedication shown to really get into the nuts and bolts of what is a pretty opaque air war module. I don't think there is anything wrong with it at all in terms of 'sportsmanship' - he has always been very upfront about the way he plays and so anyone playing vs him knows what kind of game it is going to be and the kind of micromanaging moves that will be required to keep up with this.

That said, roll on the WITW/WITE2 air module as I think that what this AAR has demonstrated is that in the hands of players that are prepared to "femto-manage" (in the words of Crackaces), the current IGO/UGO air module is pretty broken in terms of a game mechanic that is accessible to 95% of the playerbase


A little funny;
Many years ago Pelton proposed that the air is overrated and not needed for a German victory. Now, some might propose the air “is too powerful” and not “historic”. The difference is player knowledge of different if not all aspects of this very complex game. I might be analogous to always playing a Ruy Lopez opening in chess and suddenly white opens with the “kings bishop game” Unexpected and given a player does not understand the ramifications it produces controversy.

On a side note .. air parody is soon on the horizon in this game. Maybe as soon as Turn 65.

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RE: 8MP to T54: Air closes the team AAR - 3/17/2019 10:39:34 PM   
ledo

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Crackaces


quote:

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

First things first - I think the stuff Telemecus is doing here is really exceptional in terms of the dedication shown to really get into the nuts and bolts of what is a pretty opaque air war module. I don't think there is anything wrong with it at all in terms of 'sportsmanship' - he has always been very upfront about the way he plays and so anyone playing vs him knows what kind of game it is going to be and the kind of micromanaging moves that will be required to keep up with this.

That said, roll on the WITW/WITE2 air module as I think that what this AAR has demonstrated is that in the hands of players that are prepared to "femto-manage" (in the words of Crackaces), the current IGO/UGO air module is pretty broken in terms of a game mechanic that is accessible to 95% of the playerbase


A little funny;
Many years ago Pelton proposed that the air is overrated and not needed for a German victory. Now, some might propose the air “is too powerful” and not “historic”. The difference is player knowledge of different if not all aspects of this very complex game. I might be analogous to always playing a Ruy Lopez opening in chess and suddenly white opens with the “kings bishop game” Unexpected and given a player does not understand the ramifications it produces controversy.

On a side note .. air parody is soon on the horizon in this game. Maybe as soon as Turn 65.

quote:

On a side note .. air parody is soon on the horizon in this game. Maybe as soon as Turn 65.


I assume you mean air parity. I mean you're probably not as careful as Telemecus but I'm sure you'll do better than air parody.

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RE: 8MP to T54: Air closes the team AAR - 3/17/2019 11:58:08 PM   
thedoctorking


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A good argument for setting % required to fly to 0.

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RE: 8MP to T54: Air closes the team AAR - 3/18/2019 1:17:37 AM   
Crackaces


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quote:

ORIGINAL: ledo


quote:

ORIGINAL: Crackaces


quote:

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

First things first - I think the stuff Telemecus is doing here is really exceptional in terms of the dedication shown to really get into the nuts and bolts of what is a pretty opaque air war module. I don't think there is anything wrong with it at all in terms of 'sportsmanship' - he has always been very upfront about the way he plays and so anyone playing vs him knows what kind of game it is going to be and the kind of micromanaging moves that will be required to keep up with this.

That said, roll on the WITW/WITE2 air module as I think that what this AAR has demonstrated is that in the hands of players that are prepared to "femto-manage" (in the words of Crackaces), the current IGO/UGO air module is pretty broken in terms of a game mechanic that is accessible to 95% of the playerbase


A little funny;
Many years ago Pelton proposed that the air is overrated and not needed for a German victory. Now, some might propose the air “is too powerful” and not “historic”. The difference is player knowledge of different if not all aspects of this very complex game. I might be analogous to always playing a Ruy Lopez opening in chess and suddenly white opens with the “kings bishop game” Unexpected and given a player does not understand the ramifications it produces controversy.

On a side note .. air parody is soon on the horizon in this game. Maybe as soon as Turn 65.

quote:

On a side note .. air parody is soon on the horizon in this game. Maybe as soon as Turn 65.


I assume you mean air parity. I mean you're probably not as careful as Telemecus but I'm sure you'll do better than air parody.


If you think about it .. it might be a comedic parody ! <big big smile>

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RE: 8MP to T54: Air closes the team AAR - 3/18/2019 2:25:17 AM   
Crackaces


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On a different note .. This game is a Bitter End game. Parity is not 1:1

For every 5 planes shot down the Soviets get 100 points the Germans 25 points.
1000 men 100 guns 10 AFV's so parity is 4:1 if you consider points. It is a little more complex like considering replacement rates etc...But the points for things are about equal ..

The points for places … The Germans are accumulating points because of Moscow, Leningrad, Kharkov, Rostov, Stalino, Kiev, Sevastopol, Voronezh the Soviets have no points but if you anticipate a "BrainG" move this could balance out.

My point being that as far as "things" points -- 4:1 is parity


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RE: 8MP to T54: Air closes the team AAR - 3/18/2019 5:23:10 AM   
ledo

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Crackaces

On a different note .. This game is a Bitter End game. Parity is not 1:1

For every 5 planes shot down the Soviets get 100 points the Germans 25 points.
1000 men 100 guns 10 AFV's so parity is 4:1 if you consider points. It is a little more complex like considering replacement rates etc...But the points for things are about equal ..

The points for places … The Germans are accumulating points because of Moscow, Leningrad, Kharkov, Rostov, Stalino, Kiev, Sevastopol, Voronezh the Soviets have no points but if you anticipate a "BrainG" move this could balance out.

My point being that as far as "things" points -- 4:1 is parity



So what you're saying is 1:1 would probably be parody territory rather than parity.

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RE: 8MP to T54: Air closes the team AAR - 3/18/2019 6:27:49 PM   
Dinglir


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Very interesting read on the Axis air strategy. A well thought out and implemented strategy, I think.

I would hesitate however, to use this AAR as an argument for the Air War being lopsided in favor of the Axis. Personally, I believe that the Soviets have led a "less than inspired" air campaign. I do not think that the Soviets manage which Air Regiments receive replacements and leaving weak Air Regiments near the front with fewer than "required to fly" simply reduces them to being a drain on the Soviet air force that will simply get bombed away turn after turn after turn.

What I would recommend for the Soviets is a strategy where Air Regiments are sent to the National Reserve at thebeginning of the turn if either morale or numbers are too low. What Regiments receive replacements should then be controlled by the requirements per aircraft typåe held up against the reserve pool. Similarly, what Air Regiments are set to upgrade should be controlled by availability of better aircraft. Once Air Regiments are at 15 or so aircraft, thet hsould be sent to "assembly bases" well outside of German fighter range. From here, they can Air Transfer into combat on the following turn. Should the Germans go for unescorted bomber attacks, placing a few Air Regiments with LaGG-3's on intercept duties near the assembly bases should quickly persuade them this is a bad idea.

What I think that the AAR show is how much a slow paced player with some (or "a lot") of experience can exploit the Air war system. In reality, I think the Axis player (against an experienced slow paced Soviet player) can choose between doing ground support or protecting his own airbases. Doing both will leave him with a long Group range and "Intercept On". That can easily be exploited by doctoring the Axis to the end of their flight capacity followed by massive airfield attacks. The problem is that the German fighter production will never be able to keep up with losses, while the Soviets will early on begin producing about 200 battleworthy fighters per turn.

I have lately wondered if a house rule stating that "No airfield attacks must be conducted after turn one by either side" would not make for a better game.



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RE: 8MP to T54: Air closes the team AAR - 3/18/2019 7:10:32 PM   
Crackaces


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One thing .. one can make an airfield attack very expensive even after the German fighters are exhausted. Have a few HQ's with LW flak around and it is quite possible to get hundreds of flak "tubes" in play. In 8MP we saw an airfield attack housing Storks result in a huge loss of bombers. It seems OKH was nearby ;)

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RE: 8MP to T54: Air closes the team AAR - 3/18/2019 7:27:42 PM   
M60A3TTS


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Dinglir
The problem is that the German fighter production will never be able to keep up with losses, while the Soviets will early on begin producing about 200 battleworthy fighters per turn.


Your numbers make assumptions that are not valid in this game.

1. LaGG-3/11 production at Taganrog was lost week 10.

2. MiG-3 production ended at Moscow on Week 13 as the factories were evacuated to save future IL-2 production. Moscow fell shortly thereafter.

3. Yak-1 production was eventually sent to the Urals as the factories were under air attack and there were not enough fighters available to protect them.

That left 66 LaGG-3 deliveries per week plus what Lend Lease could provide.

Mid September 1941 fighter production with the Yaks as yet to be moved and no Lend Lease deliveries was closer to one half of what you project, and that has a significant effect on air war planning and execution.

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RE: 8MP to T54: Air closes the team AAR - 3/18/2019 8:44:30 PM   
Telemecus


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Soviet Fighter Numbers T000 to T054




Does not include losses from T054 Soviet action and logisitics phases

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RE: 8MP to T54: Air closes the team AAR - 3/18/2019 8:58:04 PM   
Telemecus


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Soviet Fighter Production and Losses T000 to T054

Not just in 1941 but also for periods in 1942 losses have repeatedly exceeded production




Does not include losses from T054 Soviet action and logisitics phases

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RE: 8MP to T54: Air closes the team AAR - 3/18/2019 9:01:37 PM   
Telemecus


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Attached is the spreadsheet used to track Soviet aircraft losses and production and to produce the above charts. Do let me know of any errors you spot.

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8MP to T54: Soviet Tank Numbers - 3/19/2019 4:34:36 PM   
Telemecus


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Soviet Tank Numbers T000 to T054


Does not include losses from T054 Soviet action and logisitics phases

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RE: 8MP to T54: Soviet Tank Numbers - 3/19/2019 4:37:01 PM   
Telemecus


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Attached is the spreadsheet used to track Soviet tank and other vehicle losses and production and to produce the above chart. Do let me know of any errors you spot.

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8MP U2VS and M60A3TTS - 3/19/2019 8:16:45 PM   
Telemecus


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U2VS and M60A3TTS: Turn 53

The ongoing saga of M60A3TTS promising to evacuate the U2VS factory to destruction - but never actually delivering - continues. Thus this announcement at the start of turn 53 on Radio Moscow (now broadcasting from Kazan) is met with scepticism.


By now the Axis team all know M60A3TTS is a closet U2VSphile in denial - we wait to see how they will get out of this one this time ....

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RE: 8MP U2VS and M60A3TTS - 3/19/2019 8:18:23 PM   
Telemecus


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U2VS and M60A3TTS: Turn 53 - Later on



Yeah. Sure! Like we so believe you now. Let us see how you get out of it next turn?

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RE: 8MP U2VS and M60A3TTS - 3/20/2019 2:14:34 AM   
M60A3TTS


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Well obviously the plants weren't turned over. They were needed, along with the plant manager, to serve as evidence at the trial. I refer of course to:

THE STATE

vs. General-Armii EwaldVonKleist

Charge 1: That the defendant, while serving as Commander of the Western Direction, did willfully conspire with foreign agents as well as domestic associates having Trotskyite tendencies in supporting the continuation of U-2VS aircraft production. This blatant effort to continue producing an ineffective tactical bomber alongside the extraordinarily successful IL-2 Sturmovik was in direct contravention of the orders of our Comrade and Chairman of the Committee for State Defense and General Secretary of the Communist Party Iosef Vissarionovich STALIN.

Charge 2: That the defendant, upon the realization that his conspiratorial behavior would be uncovered, did resign his command as a prelude to an attempted escape from the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics.

Charge 3: That the defendant authored a traitorous document composing his thoughts on total war outlining many means by which the Soviet Union could be defeated in a war against Fascist Germany and her allies.



Once the trial is concluded and the perfectly sensible verdict reached, new arrangements will be made.

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RE: 8MP U2VS and M60A3TTS - 3/20/2019 10:06:36 AM   
Nix77

 

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Really nice to see Telemecus & Co keeping this thread and AAR still going strong! All the statistics, excel charts and detailed explanations are really top quality reading.

As a certain bloke from southeast of United States once brutally stated: "“A single death is a tragedy; a million deaths is a statistic.”

Come to think of it, not sure if he was from the US, I have his signature attached if you can figure it out?




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RE: 8MP U2VS and M60A3TTS - 3/20/2019 11:27:40 AM   
EwaldvonKleist


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Written defence by General-Armii Ewald von Kleist for the process
The State vs. General-Armii EwaldVonKleist

Charge 1: The defence industry or general industry of the Soviet Union has not been under my responsibility during my time as a field commander before and during the war. Any contact with representatives of the Soviet industry and armaments industry were strictly professional meetings to evaluate combat experience with new weapon systems. It is true that I am a long-term member of the U2-society, which is an organization to promote flying in the Soviet union to create a pool of reserve pilots for future expansion of Soviet aviation and for defence purposes. Biplanes are the cheapest and safest training aircraft. It is not known to me that the organization has ever interfered with IL2 production, which has rightfully been declared as a priority for aircraft production.
No proof exists for collaboration between myself and elements identified as Trotskyist.

Charge 2: When I asked to be relieved of command, a request which was granted by Stalin, it was solely due to overworking and total exhaustion following the first year of the war. During the last two years. I simultaneously held responsibility for two strategic directions (Northern&Western), representing the largest army group ever formed in the history of war, which has been a severe strain on my health.
No escape from the Soviet Union has ever been planned.

Charge 3: I have no connection with said document, whose author, by sheer coincidence, has the same name as me. His work contains a photography of him, which is shown below on the left side. On the right side is a photography of myself. The differences are obvious and will convince anyone that we are different people who must not be charged for a crime committed by the other one.




< Message edited by EwaldvonKleist -- 3/20/2019 11:28:36 AM >


_____________________________


(in reply to Nix77)
Post #: 898
RE: 8MP U2VS and M60A3TTS - 3/20/2019 12:22:18 PM   
Telemecus


Posts: 4689
Joined: 3/20/2016
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Nix77
As a certain bloke from southeast of United States once brutally stated: "“A single death is a tragedy; a million deaths is a statistic.”

Come to think of it, not sure if he was from the US, I have his signature attached if you can figure it out?





Having actually travelled through Georgia I recognised that "spaghetti" alphabet immediately - the rest is an obvious guess. And by Georgia I do not mean the state in the south east of the US!

@EvK My God! You mean there are now actually 3 EvKs!


< Message edited by Telemecus -- 3/20/2019 1:05:56 PM >

(in reply to Nix77)
Post #: 899
RE: 8MP U2VS and M60A3TTS - 3/20/2019 12:35:47 PM   
Telemecus


Posts: 4689
Joined: 3/20/2016
Status: offline
U2VS and M60A3TTS: Turn 54

quote:

ORIGINAL: John 15:13-17 (adapted)
Greater love hath no man for U2VS, that a man lay down his Supreme Command to save its factory.


(in reply to EwaldvonKleist)
Post #: 900
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