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RE: Notes from a Small Island

 
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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 1/10/2019 12:45:19 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Kushiro would be the most likely point of attack. We know Erik is aggressive and very good. Judging by what I've seen him doing in game, I think he'd definitely consider it and probably pull the trigger. With Death Star away, there's a decent chance he could take control of the air. There's a decent chance he'd bring forward his remaining capital ships to bombard. And he could be a million man army forward.

Despite that risk, I'm willing to chance it because it's necessary. The Next NExt Big Thing will be worth it, even at the risk of losing Kushiro (and/or Wakkanai). But I don't think either is a "lost cause." They'll have the advantages you gents speak of and reducing them should take time. I'll leave enough forces behind to make Erik take precautions, and Death Star won't be so far away that she's unable to return, if needed.

I think Wakkanai will have a garrision of two divisions and Kushiro of two+. Both will have forts of at least five and probably six, by the time TNNBT gets underway.

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Post #: 3481
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 1/10/2019 2:19:31 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 13450
Joined: 11/16/2015
From: My Mother, although my Father had some small part.
Status: offline 		And any capitol ships bombarding would probably have to pass through sub infested waters, PT boats, and minefields. Not to mention US DD Task Forces, especially those that retain their torpedoes. It probably would not be worth any gains by the Japanese to lose the surface ships trying to clear Hokkaido.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 1/10/2019 2:38:27 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		4/5/45

NoPac: Death Star advanced to it's blocking position west of Kushiro without incident. It will probably need to remain in this vicinity for one or two more turns, covering the shipping pulling the units out of Kushiro.

I think the odds of Erik unleashing his air force tomorrow is perhaps 33%. That high, because this is the first chance he's had to employ massed kamikazes (along with strike aircraft) from big airfields in proximity. That low because he may prefer to wait for a better opportunity later.

But he'd better not wait. I think this is the last time Death Star will be exposed to so many massive airfields at such close range. TNNBT doesn't involve exposure at this level, I don't believe.

Erik may be guessing that way too.

If he does pull the trigger, the damage should be dramatic. He'll sink alot of ships, including good ones. I don't think he'll sink enough to hamper TNNBT. The key to things is the level of damage his air force suffers in the process. If he impails himself while scoring points that are meaningful but not decisive, that's acceptable.







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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 1/10/2019 5:04:44 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		4/6/45

NoPac: Remarkably quiet today in an eerie, disconcerting way.

The Allies will devote one more day to loading units at Kushiro, then bug out (the exception being, if a large enemy air strike really neuters Erik's air force, then the threat level may go down significantly).

In the graphic, I set the odds of an enemy all-out attack tomorrow at 67%. My gut tells me he's coming.

Mini-DS should rendezvous with DS tonight, adding 650 aircraft (probably something like 400 good fighters) to the mix.

If Erik doesn't strike tomorrow, I think he'll have missed his last good chance at a consolidate strike within close range of a multitude of big airfields.




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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 1/10/2019 5:18:55 PM   
BBfanboy


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Status: offline 		Well, IF, following Nemo's return to the forum and his request for IJ AARs to look at - IF he then decided to work with obvert, they may now have a massive Japanese landing about to happen on the US West Coast!
Could explain the eerie quiet and the disappearance of KB after deliberately showing part of it near the IO.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 1/10/2019 8:02:18 PM   
MakeeLearn


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Carriers are NICE targets and look good mounted over the fireplace.
Invasion fleets - Troops/transports/etc - are where the MEAT is at.
I can see Japan regrouping/preparing to hit the NEXT BIG invasion.

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Post #: 3486
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 1/10/2019 10:19:38 PM   
Lokasenna


Posts: 9297
Joined: 3/3/2012
From: Iowan in MD/DC
Status: offline 		Even if a counterinvasion of the Kuriles were "successful", it wouldn't be successful.

Nevermind that Japan does not really have the capability to conduct an amphibious operation of the scale required to oust even a single American division (or a smorgasbord of LCUs adding up to roughly equivalent numbers) from an island. They don't have the sealift capability, they don't have anything better than an AK, they don't have the surplus supplies, they don't have the pre-invasion bombardment capability, and so on. Even if the Japanese player managed to pull something like that off, the Allied player shouldn't be worried - as long as aircraft were evacuated before the base fell. And speaking of aircraft... any Japanese troops would be bombed to hell before they could take the island, assuming forts have been built (and no real reason why they shouldn't be, considering the overflow of Allied engineers in the OOB).

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Post #: 3487
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 1/12/2019 3:14:54 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		4/7/45

NoPac: I had a hunch he was coming. The situation called for it. The email he sent with the 4/6 turn included some subtle hints. Then Erik sat with the turn far, far longer than anticipated....

...and then I learned that he hadn't received the turn I'd sent at 1 p.m. yesterday. We discovered the snafu at 10:30 a.m. today. I resent the turn. He sent it back tonight...

...at which time I learned that he wasn't coming.

No all-out enemy air attack on Death Star and the shipping at Kushiro. Huh.

The loading is mostly completed. Completed enough that all ships will weigh anchor and move out tonight. THere are still cadres at Kushiro - mostly motorized support and such - that I'll retrieve.

The effort to pull out an army at Kushiro is essentially complete without loss (so far). There's more shuffling afoot, as other units are retrieved from the Kuriles and a few units are repositioned from one island to another, to match prep and to mate with cadres. But the planning for The Next Next Big Thing now enters its final phases. I hope to have time to upgrade the host of Death Star DDs due for AA improvements. I think that will work out.

I've scrubbed the invasion of Marcus. I can better use those units to reinforce the Kuriles and Hokkaido. I'll sleep better too. Marcus is basically irrelevant given my chosen vector of attack.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 1/13/2019 1:37:30 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		4/8/45

Synergism: The Japanese MLR in Burma is withdrawing. At the moment, it seems to me that the long, long, long-planned synergism between Burma and The Next NExt Big Thing is turning out to be nearly perfectly timed.

That'll changed, of course. The blush usually fades from the rose, as reality hits home.





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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 1/17/2019 2:55:38 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		4/9/45 to 4/12/45

SEAC: The enemy MLR has retired from Moulmein. I don't think Erik can successfully stand long-term anywhere else, so the Allies should be able to take control of Burma and the Bangkok region. From that point, nearly all of the Allied army will move towards Singers, either via land or by sea. :)

NoPac: The tremendous logistical work underlying The Next Next Big Thing continues in good order. There are still a few units to reposition (96th Div. from Wakkanai to Kushiro, by sea) or to recover from the Kuriles. I think all of that should be done within a week.

TNNBT units not needed in the amphibious assaults have switched to Strat Mode.

I'm trying to get as many DDs upgraded as possible. Sommers-class upgrades take only 7 days, so there's still time for them. But Fletcher upgrades take 12 days. I'm not sure I want to wait that long. But retrieving the remaining divisions posted in the Kuriles is pretty slow, because there are 0(0) ports involved. So I may have more time than I think.







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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 1/17/2019 3:13:31 PM   
jwolf

 

Posts: 2493
Joined: 12/3/2013
Status: offline 		Erik's move in SE Asia makes sense to me: by April 1945 that territory is just not as significant as it used to be. He seems to be very careful about not overextending his forces, commendably so IMHO.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 1/17/2019 3:14:28 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
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Status: offline 		Right. I just hope he waited too long. :)

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 1/20/2019 12:41:36 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		A question for you who know more than I do about optimizing ship classes for amphibious assault (most everybody reading this will know more than I do).

The Allies have a tremendous fleet of assault shipping available - I think, for once, I have so much that it won't be necessary to cram troops onto ships or to shoe-horn x-Class ships into the invasion fleet. But I'm not sure if there are advantages to doing things certain ways:

1. I have enough APAs to carry the full complement of 15 or so divisions involved. Question: Is there any advantage to including AKAs in the infantry assault shipping, or do the APAs, which are configured to carry both men and equipment, sufficient, thus freeing the AKAs for other duties?

2. LSI(L)s are available. I think they are the UK equivalent of the APA, so I'll use them as such.

3. There are LSDs that carry a bit of infantry but mostly cargo. Should those be used like APAs or should they be used to carry armor and/or artillery?

4. Should tank units be placed only on LSTs or are there even better ships that should be used, such as LSDs or AKAs?

5. I plan to use APDs and LCIs for the main target, carrying parts of the key assault infantry units. Any reason to use them in some other capacity?


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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 1/20/2019 2:35:58 PM   
T Rav

 

Posts: 387
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Status: offline 		I learn so much just from the questions... I can't help you, but I look forward to the answers.

Lurker T Rav

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 1/20/2019 3:04:29 PM   
Mike Solli


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From: the flight deck of the Zuikaku
Status: offline 		A comment on the first question. When invading, I always have ship(s) loaded only with supply because if the troop carrying ships don't land all of their troops in the first phase, no supply is landed. This ensures supply is landed with the invading force.

Edit: So I would include AKAs with the invading TF.

< Message edited by Mike Solli -- 1/20/2019 3:05:15 PM >

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 1/20/2019 5:05:32 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 13450
Joined: 11/16/2015
From: My Mother, although my Father had some small part.
Status: offline 		If I remember correctly, Landing Ships Dock (which is LSD here, not Lysergic Acid Diethylamide) was used for the amphtracks. They could be used as such in your invasion force which would help speed unloading.

I think that your armor is best loaded on LSTs. Just 1000 points or less so they unload on one phase. The rest of the cargo on the LSTs should be supplies.

AKAs should load the cargo heavy part of certain units like artillery, combined with APDs which can hold the troops which should give maximum effectiveness of the shipping. If a AP has extra passenger space loaded with cargo, it will only carry a portion of the supplies that it could if it carried the supplies in the cargo hold. As an example, an APD can carry 180 troops or 60 supply.

I think that you can include nonamphibous loaded cargo ships in your assault fleet. While AKAs will unload faster, even xAKs will help. Extra LSTs loaded with cargo will unload 1000 supply right away. Also, more ships as "padding" should spread out any defensive fire that hits the transports instead of the Navy combat ships embedded.

I think that witpqs has this down very well but he is commenting on the other side.

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 1/20/2019 5:09:07 PM   
panzer cat

 

Posts: 165
Joined: 10/2/2011
From: occupied Virginia
Status: offline 		I use the LSD's for arty and LST's for tanks. If I need to use xAK's there in a separate convoy carrying just supplies.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 1/21/2019 5:56:23 AM   
CaptBeefheart


Posts: 2301
Joined: 7/4/2003
From: Seoul, Korea
Status: offline 		To your questions:

1. I have enough APAs to carry the full complement of 15 or so divisions involved. Question: Is there any advantage to including AKAs in the infantry assault shipping, or do the APAs, which are configured to carry both men and equipment, sufficient, thus freeing the AKAs for other duties?

*** I usually mix some AKAs in with APAs (maybe 20-25% AKA) to handle the motorized support, arty, etc. I don't think APAs by themselves will efficiently load divisions.

2. LSI(L)s are available. I think they are the UK equivalent of the APA, so I'll use them as such.

*** Yes.

3. There are LSDs that carry a bit of infantry but mostly cargo. Should those be used like APAs or should they be used to carry armor and/or artillery?

*** I generally use them like APAs and that seems to work well enough.

4. Should tank units be placed only on LSTs or are there even better ships that should be used, such as LSDs or AKAs?

*** LSTs will unload tanks and arty very quickly, so I don't believe the other ships are better (if you have plenty of LSTs).

5. I plan to use APDs and LCIs for the main target, carrying parts of the key assault infantry units. Any reason to use them in some other capacity?

*** Good idea. I don't know of a better use.

One thing I'd reiterate is that LST TFs carrying only supply are great to have on hand.

Cheers,
CB

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 1/21/2019 6:27:27 AM   
BBfanboy


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Status: offline 		Don't forget to make barges from your supply when you get to the target - speeds up unloading of equipment like vehicles.
You should also have some "Amphibious Truck" units which land with the troops, and then work to shuttle stuff from ship to shore. I think they have (abstracted) LCVPs to do that.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 1/21/2019 11:47:48 AM   
HansBolter


Posts: 7704
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From: United States
Status: offline 		I always mix AKAs in with my other ship types in a major amphibious TF.

Yes, if you allocate enough APAs you can cover the equipment loading needs but you will have a very large overcapacity of troop space doing this. Its far more efficient to mix in one AKA for every 4-6 APAs. Much of the equipment loading can also be covered by adding in enough LSTs and other beaching craft. APAs don't have the correct balance of troop and cargo space to efficiently load divisions without adding in AKAs or other cargo primary carrier types.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 1/21/2019 3:34:13 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		I'm doing a massive test loading. For the units in Combat Mode, I'll see if their TFs actually have enough capacity and make adjustments where needed. Those TFs will probably unload and then, in about four days, re-load for TNNBT. For those in Strat Mode, I'll likely leave them aboard ship until TNNBT gets underway.

I'm still gathering units from Kushiro and the Kuriles. It's 95% down, but the last 5% is giving me fits. Other than that, TNNBT is ready to get underway (so no additional Fletchers will upgrade, but I think there is time for the Sommers-class DDs to do so (their upgrades take 7 days).

I'm glad I diverted the Marcus-prepped units to NoPac. A couple of the Kuriles and Shikuka can use a boost in their garrisons. Erik is paying close attention, via recon, to what's going on.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 1/21/2019 8:39:24 PM   
panzer cat

 

Posts: 165
Joined: 10/2/2011
From: occupied Virginia
Status: offline 		I did not know that I should create barges/landing craft to speed up the process, great tip

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 1/21/2019 9:26:42 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 13450
Joined: 11/16/2015
From: My Mother, although my Father had some small part.
Status: offline 		It is just like creating PT boats except that they are landing craft. The veritable Higgins boats, if I recall correctly.

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 1/22/2019 10:30:27 AM   
tarkalak

 

Posts: 289
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Status: offline 		Creating barges from a fleet requires the supplies to be loaded at Hawaii or at the US.

I remember reading that on the forum, but I am not sure of it.

You should definitely test that if you intend to use them.

< Message edited by tarkalak -- 1/22/2019 10:36:21 AM >

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 1/22/2019 4:56:31 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		4/13/45 to 4/16/45

The Next Next Big Thing: Planning for the loading of this invasion fleet is so complex that my head hurts. Troops at Shikuka are divided between Combat and Strat Modes. Each unit is loading separately (to make sure I've allocated the proper space). The loading has gone well, thus far, with the assault shipping more than sufficient to carry the 18 or so divisions involved. The main assault TFs have unloaded now, so that their units won't accrue disruption. They'll load again in a couple of days. Meanwhile, a host of TFs are still retrieving units from Kushiro and the Kuriles. This is complicated by some good units being on 0(0) port bases. So some of my best ships (LSTs, LSDs, LCIs) are required, meaning they aren't at Shikuka loading assault troops. It's the most complex thing you've ever seen.

Despite this Wal-Mart on ice complexity, the loading is actually going well and it's fun. I'm starting to get itchy fingers. I want to press "Go! Now!" but 1st Marine Div. and 37th Div. are still inbound from forward bases. They'll arrive at Shikuka in two days. I think Departure Day will be in four days.

I'm leaving behind pretty solid defenses, especially at the two Hokkaido bases and the two Sikhalin Island bases. I think there's a decent chance Erik will get frisky in some form or fashion - combat TF raids, bombardment raids, counter-invasions or counterattacks (Kushiro would be the most likely target) or bombing raids, or combos of all of these. I don't think he can make real trouble, but he's a clever guy.

Each day, his good fighters pick on an second-teir Allied airfield to sweep. Usually I have no fighters anywhere but Shikuka, but some are required forward to protect the loading transports. Today, his good fighters were handled well at Kushiro, mainly due to P-47Ns being present.

SEAC: The chase is on in the jungle between Moulmein and Bangkok. Right now his retreat is a bit ragged. Pretty soon, the Allied advance will become ragged. He's tried to LRCAP his guys on occasion. When my sweepers catch his LRCAP, my guys win. Today was one of those days. He has 300+ good fighters at Bangkok the past ten days, so he's taking this seriously.

A large Allied invasion force is assembling at Madras with a good RN Death Star. That DS is large enough to handle the LBA threat or KB threat but not both. So I have to pick the right time - IE, I have to be pretty sure KB isn't loitering around Singers.

At some point, Death Star and RN DS may work together.

May should be a very exciting month.



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Post #: 3505
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 1/22/2019 5:57:16 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 13450
Joined: 11/16/2015
From: My Mother, although my Father had some small part.
Status: offline 		I think that the time to launch the Royal Naval DS would be the turn right after he detects the big move elsewhere - unless you want to feint with it.

Of course, two DD raids everywhere he is weak in airpower would tend to distract him as well! Move in and move out, like a complex dance. "Put your right foot in, put your right foot out . . . "

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


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Post #: 3506
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 1/22/2019 6:33:08 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		I'll bet you anything Erik will suspect a move in the Andaman Sea coincident with the move in the Pacific. He wants at RN Death Star. I'll have to be very, very careful or I'll feed the lion a tasty supper.

I think the better odds for springing RN DS is if TNNBT succeeds in creating such major issues for Japan that Erik feels compelled to deploy everything he can get his hands on. I think there's a decent chance that's what's going to happen.

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Post #: 3507
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 1/22/2019 9:13:38 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 13450
Joined: 11/16/2015
From: My Mother, although my Father had some small part.
Status: offline 		What I meant was to let him see the RN a turn or two before the DS would known to be visible. He would react towards the RN but then you would back off. Then the DDs would pop up all over for a quick raid, he might react to those with air units but the DDs then run away. Doing so could cause a reaction and leave parts of air units scattered hither and yon. Then the big hammer hits . . .

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 3508
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 1/22/2019 9:37:30 PM   
BBfanboy


Posts: 18046
Joined: 8/4/2010
From: Winnipeg, MB
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

What I meant was to let him see the RN a turn or two before the DS would known to be visible. He would react towards the RN but then you would back off. Then the DDs would pop up all over for a quick raid, he might react to those with air units but the DDs then run away. Doing so could cause a reaction and leave parts of air units scattered hither and yon. Then the big hammer hits . . .

Good plan, now go to obvert's AAR and advise him on his part in the dance! Every complex dance needs a choreographer to make it work!

_____________________________

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Post #: 3509
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 1/23/2019 6:01:27 PM   
Lokasenna


Posts: 9297
Joined: 3/3/2012
From: Iowan in MD/DC
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

A question for you who know more than I do about optimizing ship classes for amphibious assault (most everybody reading this will know more than I do).

The Allies have a tremendous fleet of assault shipping available - I think, for once, I have so much that it won't be necessary to cram troops onto ships or to shoe-horn x-Class ships into the invasion fleet. But I'm not sure if there are advantages to doing things certain ways:

1. I have enough APAs to carry the full complement of 15 or so divisions involved. Question: Is there any advantage to including AKAs in the infantry assault shipping, or do the APAs, which are configured to carry both men and equipment, sufficient, thus freeing the AKAs for other duties?

2. LSI(L)s are available. I think they are the UK equivalent of the APA, so I'll use them as such.

3. There are LSDs that carry a bit of infantry but mostly cargo. Should those be used like APAs or should they be used to carry armor and/or artillery?

4. Should tank units be placed only on LSTs or are there even better ships that should be used, such as LSDs or AKAs?

5. I plan to use APDs and LCIs for the main target, carrying parts of the key assault infantry units. Any reason to use them in some other capacity?




I'm a few days late, but...

1. Yes, include AKAs in unloading large US infantry units (such as divisions). You will need to do so to maximize the utility of your APAs.

2. Yes

3. Your choice. Substitute a few in place of an AKA when loading a division, or I mostly use them to load the armor/artillery units that have a little bit of Troops to load. I've also used them to help with the small Troop/large Cargo HQs on occasion (Eighth Army, maybe?).

4. LSTs are perfectly fine. I love them for this, actually.

5. No, not really. Although I tend to use them for help in landing secondary units such as base forces or combat engineers as they provide great troop capacity - my APAs tend to be all used up on divisions.


Also note that with an AGC + 100% HQm, you can use xAPs and xAKs to great effect. A while back I tracked how much unloaded with just xAP/xAK and it was a huge amount (I used a large number of ships, but they mostly unloaded in a single day even from xAP/xAK...). The AGC and HQm make a big difference in unload rates.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
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