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RE: Notes from a Small Island

 
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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 1/28/2019 11:42:08 AM   
MakeeLearn


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< Message edited by MakeeLearn -- 1/28/2019 12:18:57 PM >

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 1/28/2019 2:39:03 PM   
RangerJoe


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Status: offline 		Actually, from the Rhykyus, going to the nice open ground of northern China would also be a viable target. That would be a good area for the Cavalry to exploit. Then a linkup with the Russians when they activate would solve all supply problems for China.

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Post #: 3542
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 1/28/2019 3:07:44 PM   
MakeeLearn


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Status: offline 		Invading northern China you can get a lot of territory and flank up with the Russians. But then the Japs may withdraw into southern China's rough terrain and hold some of the ports there.

Or leave Northern China open as a possible escape rout...
By taking the coastline of rough southern China, ports, maybe he will withdraw his bulk of forces into the open terrain of northern China and they can be dealt with easier than down south. However there is a good chance he will pull his forces into Indochina.

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Post #: 3543
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 1/28/2019 3:27:45 PM   
Lokasenna


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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 1/28/2019 3:33:28 PM   
JohnDillworth


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Status: offline 		Somewhere in there is about right. Need to make the DEI irrelevant so the economy can be killed

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 1/28/2019 6:34:53 PM   
brian800000

 

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 1/28/2019 6:59:05 PM   
mind_messing

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

Somewhere in there is about right. Need to make the DEI irrelevant so the economy can be killed


It's too late for that now, the key is VP's now and not fuel and oil.

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Post #: 3547
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 1/28/2019 7:39:38 PM   
Canoerebel


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I'm enjoying reading your guesses, reasoning and analysis. Thanks for posting.

TNNBT: Death Star and the Herd move five hexes, a cumulative of 16 since departing Shikuka four days ago. Neither DS nor the adjacent herd of cadre tatterdemalions show much in the way of detection, but I feel sure Erik knows what's where. So far no enemy opposition.

SEAC: Erik's withdrwaing army has pulled away from the pursuing Allies just a bit. I've slowed my guys down, partly to get a better feel for whether Erik has a bushwhack in mind and partly to consider an alternative - diverting my guys to amphibious ops rather than continuing a land campaign.

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Post #: 3548
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 1/28/2019 8:16:30 PM   
MakeeLearn


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Mainland Japan would be Prime Time Fight Club




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< Message edited by MakeeLearn -- 1/29/2019 6:27:32 PM >

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 1/28/2019 9:24:25 PM   
paullus99


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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 1/28/2019 10:22:02 PM   
BillBrown


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Status: offline 		I really want him to land in Toyko. That would be epic.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 1/29/2019 2:00:21 AM   
RangerJoe


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Status: offline 		If he invades Iwo Jima, technically he would land in Tokyo:

quote:

Iwo Jima lies in the western Pacific at a point about 760 miles (1,220 km) south-southeast of Tokyo. The island is irregular in shape; it is about 5 miles (8 km) long and ranges from 800 yards to 2.5 miles (730 metres to 4 km) wide. It has an area of about 8 square miles (20 square km). Administratively, it is part of Tokyo metropolis.


From:

https://www.britannica.com/place/Iwo-Jima-island-Japan

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 1/29/2019 3:30:55 AM   
brian800000

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

If he invades Iwo Jima, technically he would land in Tokyo:

quote:

Iwo Jima lies in the western Pacific at a point about 760 miles (1,220 km) south-southeast of Tokyo. The island is irregular in shape; it is about 5 miles (8 km) long and ranges from 800 yards to 2.5 miles (730 metres to 4 km) wide. It has an area of about 8 square miles (20 square km). Administratively, it is part of Tokyo metropolis.


From:

https://www.britannica.com/place/Iwo-Jima-island-Japan



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EpecUpqamiI

Go to 1:20 of this clip, but imagine instead of that fleet he sees the death star, troop transports with 15 divisions, and lord knows how many bombardment fleets.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 1/29/2019 5:00:00 PM   
HansBolter


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Status: offline 		The danger I see in where he is potentially headed is mostly the lack of a clear line of supply.

With the PI, Marianas and Bonins still in Japanese hands there is no clear path into the battle ground for supply, fuel and reinforcements.

Every resupply/refuel/reinforcement mission will need DS escort.

He is sticking his head in a noose.

Yes, the noose may be weak and the neck strong, but.....

Will certainly prove to be entertaining.

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Hans


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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 1/29/2019 5:12:33 PM   
Lokasenna


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quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

Somewhere in there is about right. Need to make the DEI irrelevant so the economy can be killed


The economy is unimportant at this stage of the calendar. Cutting off inflow wouldn't be bad, of course, but it should not be a primary consideration at all. If this were 12 or maybe even just 8 months prior, then maybe.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 1/29/2019 5:15:15 PM   
Lokasenna


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quote:

ORIGINAL: HansBolter

The danger I see in where he is potentially headed is mostly the lack of a clear line of supply.

With the PI, Marianas and Bonins still in Japanese hands there is no clear path into the battle ground for supply, fuel and reinforcements.

Every resupply/refuel/reinforcement mission will need DS escort.

He is sticking his head in a noose.

Yes, the noose may be weak and the neck strong, but.....

Will certainly prove to be entertaining.


Can drop off a few hundred thousand supply on the first trip and be fine to assume a defensive posture until a resupply can occur with more hundreds of thousands. Flying CAP doesn't cost that much supply, even with hundreds of planes. Unless the target is on Japan itself, but that would be surprising to me.


I'll put my meaningless chips on the table for the Ryukyus. Amami Oshima and maybe Okinawa. Maybe some of the medium islands between Amami and Kyushu.

(in reply to HansBolter)
Post #: 3556
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 1/29/2019 6:06:27 PM   
Canoerebel


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Status: offline 		The invasion force is carrying 1.9 million supply in supply-dedicated xAKs and AKs. There's a lot more embedded with the various transport/amphibious TFs carrying both units and supply.

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Post #: 3557
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 1/29/2019 8:37:22 PM   
RangerJoe


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Status: offline 		Napoleon said that the Army travels on its stomach. Which is why he had a reward for someone who could invent a way to safely preserve food. Canning was thus invented - but it used real lead for solder, at least initially. Of course, with the overfed US Army today, you could now state that the US Army travels in spite of its stomach . . .

Hey, I resembled (and still do) that last remark!

Supply and resources from the DEI/SRA is still relevant since bases that are under supplied yield fewer VPs.

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 3558
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 1/30/2019 2:37:37 AM   
Capt. Harlock


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quote:

He is sticking his head in a noose.

Yes, the noose may be weak and the neck strong, but.....

Will certainly prove to be entertaining.


That's actually a good description of Grant's Vicksburg campaign. My bet would be on CR to pull it off.

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Post #: 3559
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 1/30/2019 5:06:22 AM   
BBfanboy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Capt. Harlock

quote:

He is sticking his head in a noose.

Yes, the noose may be weak and the neck strong, but.....

Will certainly prove to be entertaining.


That's actually a good description of Grant's Vicksburg campaign. My bet would be on CR to pull it off.

I remember thinking CRs strategy a bit dicey when he bulldozed past the Kuriles to take the two bases on Sakhalin. How was he going to sustain his troops in such isolated bases. But then it became clear that he knew what he was doing and brought enough for a prolonged campaign and to kick open the Kuriles door when it suited him. No doubt he will be likewise prepared for whatever surrounded bases he chooses to go for next. There may be some tough clashes, but the logistics end of it will be solid.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 1/30/2019 7:28:12 AM   
CaptBeefheart


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Status: offline 		I like CR's style of play: Take a deep target and then worry about securing the LOC later. It makes for some interesting reading. I'm figuratively popping some corn now.

Cheers,
CB

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 1/30/2019 12:57:55 PM   
Canoerebel


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Status: offline 		The invasion of Sikhalin Island in June '44 is a good case in study. It did catch Erik by surprise and it did (eventually and at great cost) afford the Allies a massive base of operations right next to the Home Island. But the venture came too close to failing....and Erik's uber air force has done a fine job in countering the threat of Allied strategic bombing. His air force prevented the op from turning into a decisive Allied victory. Nevertheless, it was a good idea, I think. Taking over the game in March '44, with both sides having flush OOBs, and Erik being very dug in and prepared for anything in SWPac, I felt like I had to jumpstart the Allies and get them somewhere deep fast. Had I chosen another vector - say Java - I think I'd have ended up just as mired down but much further away.

Regarding this next op, I'm having the usual doubts and fears that I experience whenever a long-developing plan finally gets underway. Has Erik sniffed things out? Are the primary targets too strongly defended? Will I bog down? Should I have chosen safer targets? Usually, I just "trust in the process" and proceed. But Allied recon will help me select the ultimate target(s) - which one or more of the five my guys are prepped for.

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Post #: 3562
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 1/30/2019 4:53:11 PM   
adarbrauner

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

4/23/45

I'm enjoying reading your guesses, reasoning and analysis. Thanks for posting.

TNNBT: Death Star and the Herd move five hexes, a cumulative of 16 since departing Shikuka four days ago.



How's weather there?

Bad weather/rough seas are IRL primary reasons for a dispersed and delayed/slowed big convoy, I think;

(in reply to Canoerebel)
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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 1/30/2019 4:57:25 PM   
HansBolter


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

The invasion force is carrying 1.9 million supply in supply-dedicated xAKs and AKs. There's a lot more embedded with the various transport/amphibious TFs carrying both units and supply.



That's the response I was seeking to evoke.

I knew CR was moving massive amounts of supply.

In mid 44 I started forming what I refer to as SupDivs (Supply Divisions).
They consist of 40 liberty or victory ships with 8 escorts.
Each carries 250k supply and 20k fuel (slightly more for divs comprised of victory ships.

In August of '45 I now have 18 SupDivs operational.

When I landed at Okinawa I brought 1 million supply to dump there and another 2 million to deliver to Hangchow in China.

Being able to bring that much supply for an op allows the Allies to go where they want without concern for the supply line.

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Post #: 3564
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 1/30/2019 6:24:34 PM   
RangerJoe


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Status: offline 		Against the computer, you should see the effect of 200,000 supplies dumped into the Chinese port of Hong Kong in May of 1942 . . .

Supplies are almost everything since without them, you can do very little. As Gen. Robert H. Barrow, USMC (Commandant of the Marine Corps) noted in 1980 "Amateurs talk about tactics, but professionals study logistics."

https://www.military-quotes.com/forum/logistics-quotes-t511.html

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to HansBolter)
Post #: 3565
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 1/30/2019 7:11:34 PM   
MakeeLearn


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Me


"Airplanes are interesting toys, but of no military value."
Ferdinand Foch

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Post #: 3566
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 2/1/2019 2:53:33 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
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Status: offline 		4/24/45 and 4/25/45

TNNBT: On the 24th, Death Star and The Herd moved only three hexes. I nearly wept with despair. A cumulative of 19 hexes in five days. At that rate, the approach was going to take a month; Erik would have bonus time aplenty to move ships, men, base forces, etc. around the map. Too much time.

Then, on the 25th, DS & TH made six hexes. The clouds lifted. The sun shone again. 25 hexes in six days. I can live with that.

DS & TH are now SE of Tokyo and making, generally, for Chichi Jima. Erik has full info and is watching carefully. Thus far no signs of organized opposition.

Allied subs showed up in numbers today around the coast of Indochina, in the Philippines and in other likely places. There were clashes in which I lost two subs and Erik lost an AV (and aircraft), an E and an SC. The exchange is satisfactory, because the main thing is to give him info to mull over. The more info the better. The more inconsistent the better.

In upgrading a recon squadron from P-38 to Superfort, I forgot that upgrading automatically sets range to the max. That crazy squadron has a range of 55 and perhaps 500 bases and dot hexes within range...and chose one of the most significant possible. Yipes! Tomorrow, recon from Burma will light up Indochina and Hainan Island while squadrons from Hokkaido do the same for coastal China, the west coast of Korea and Formosa.

(in reply to MakeeLearn)
Post #: 3567
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 2/1/2019 11:47:34 AM   
HansBolter


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Status: offline 		Shouldn't a four hex a day average be expected when many of the TFs have beaching craft moving at 10 knots?

Regular slow downs from that average would be expected for refueling the short legged escorts.

It's the days you move six hexes that are surprising to me. TFs with 10 knot ships down't get 3/3 movement.

Shouldn't they only get 2/2 or at best 2/3 movement?

I have seen this same effect where TFs in a heard seem to get to move faster than they should.

Hopefully some of you with a better handle on game mechanics than me can correct any misunderstanding I have here.

_____________________________

Hans


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Post #: 3568
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 2/1/2019 12:21:40 PM   
tarkalak

 

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Status: offline 		From memory, if the task force didn't have enough move to go into an adjesent hex, but still had some move (say travelled 10 miles), the distance traveled will still be saved and utilized in the next pulse/day. So a TF can get an extra hex for no apparent reason.

< Message edited by tarkalak -- 2/1/2019 12:22:46 PM >

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Post #: 3569
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 2/1/2019 1:10:33 PM   
Canoerebel


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Status: offline 		The slowest ship in the entire armada is the LST, which makes 11 knots. It regularly covers six hexes per turn.

I'm carefully managing fuel so that it doesn't become a problem. Thus far it hasn't been an issue because all tFs are set to home port Kushiro, which isn't far away.

So 5 or 6 hexes per day would be the expected speed of the armada.

(in reply to tarkalak)
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