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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 3/13/2019 5:44:16 PM

Canoerebel

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5/24/45 to 5/27/45

Indochina: Allied armor in advance has clear out some of the enemy rearguard along the Vietnamese border. The armor will continue to advance. The infantry arrived by rail at Udon Thani and Phnom Penh, where they are transitioning to Move mode. I think the Allied army will be on the coast in strength in a week. From there it moves north towards China, with an eye towards relieving or combining with the Allied army at/near Shanghai/Nanking.

Supply may become an issue when the army is in Indochina. With that in mind, I'm looking at when and how to spring RN Death Star and RN Herd into the South China Sea. Currently most of the merchantmen are shuttling troops from Rangoon to Georgetown. The bulk of that is about over, which will free of cargo vessels to carry supply.

RN DS is providing cover at some risk, though Erik has had poor detection in this region for weeks. Before I'll chance the journey into the South China Sea, I'll want an airfield or two close to Singapore plus a good port or two (Saigon) on the Sea.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 3/13/2019 5:59:52 PM

Canoerebel

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5/24/45 to 5/27/45

Malaya: The real issue here is not when the Allies will besiege Singapore but when and if RN Death Star and RN Herd can safely move into the South China Sea.

I don't expect to lay siege to Singers for quite some time yet. As important as it is, it pails in comparison to what's going on in China. The sooner I can open the South China Sea to Allied warships, supply TFs and troop transports, the better.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 3/14/2019 2:31:46 PM

jwolf

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For unloading at Georgetown, do remember to check your naval support. I've had cases where my initial landing came in with good naval support, but then later on I moved a lot of that support to more forward bases. Then I noticed slow unloading at the original port and it took my a while

to figure out my mistake.

I am wondering how long it will take for your SE Asia army to link up with the one near Nanking. Even with no opposition at all, just moving there would take a month or more. It seems to me that the Japanese could have a modest window of time to put some really heavy pressure on your forces near Nanking.

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Post #: 3993

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 3/14/2019 2:53:44 PM

Canoerebel

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Yes, Naval Support is an issue. An RN base force is inbound from Rangoon, so that should help a bit.

Erik definitely has a window of a month or so before the old Burma army comes up. But if he can take on 15 modern Allied divisions heavily supported by artillery, armor, big airfields and a proximate Allied navy, I'll be a bit surprised.

We'll know more tomorrow. About 1500 Allied AV, including two Marine divisons with 80 experience, will attack an enemy division, and enemy tank division, and possibly reinforcements on the way. This will take place in a wooded hex with lots of Allied air support. If it works well it should cool Erik's ardor just a bit. If things go well for him, either there or in the vicinity, then he might be emboldened. But the Allies are prepared to fight and can do so until the cavalry arrives from Indochina.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 3/14/2019 6:47:21 PM

RangerJoe

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You could always move the DS and the Herd down to IndoChina to pick up the army and bypass his. Then get some good kimchi . . .

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Post #: 3995

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 3/14/2019 7:19:07 PM

Canoerebel

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His army would still beat mine, at this point. His guys are arriving now, with the laggards only a week or two behind.

But moving DS into the South China Sea is a possibility, as is a second idea. Both of those are under consideration, though probably I wouldn't pull the trigger until Tungchow airfield goes to level nine in about six days.

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Post #: 3996

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 3/16/2019 11:33:41 AM

Canoerebel

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5/28/45 and 5/29/45

TNNBT: The opening Allied attack in the forest west of Shanghai goes well. This is likely to develop into a large meeting engagement. That suits me, as taking on and defeating the enemy army is my chief objective, pending the arrival of the "cavalry" (the Allied army in Indochina). There's a good chance the Allies will prevail in this hex in the next day or two, roughing up this little Japanese army. Then the question will be whether Erik keeps coming or whether he elects to keep his distance, establishing a perimeter further out, cordoning off most of China but allowing the Allies space to focus on Shanghai and Hangchow.

Air War: I'm taking heavy losses each turn. Allied escort missions and any kind of LRCAP are getting chewed to pieces by enemy sweeps and CAP. I'm losing a lot of my best LBA fighters and can't sustain these losses for another week even (the Allied pools are that thin). I've made adjustments and will now only use my guys on CAP and hexes in which my escort/sweep missions would only encounter enemy LRCAP. Erik can't afford to fly LRCAP, either, and thus far he isn't even trying to protect his ground units away from bases (that's a big help to me).

Airfields: Allied bombardments and bombings have clobbered Shanghai, which shows 100% damage (and is in fact heavily damaged). So he's lost Shanghai and Nanking as effective bases and the Allies are using Nanking and Tungchow, in addition to Death Star. So he can put together mega strikes vs. DS when he wishes, but he lacks some of his best, most proximate airfields.

SEAC: ERik's army is now almost entirely out of Indochina. It'll take me a bit of time to close on the coast and move up to the CHina frontier, but that's just the nature of advancing in this region. The advances are going very well and I'm pleased, but TNNBT are fated to circle the wagons and fight the Indians on their own for a good six weeks.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 3/22/2019 2:38:29 PM

Canoerebel

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5/30/45 to 6/1/45

TNNBT: A complicate brew, this. The Allies prevailed in the meeting engagement south of Nanking, battering several enemy divisions. Erik withdrew his small army before a decisive blow could be inflicted.

Now we have two armies facing each other - Erik's is gathering strength daily. Mine is already strong. I don't want to move west, further from my own air support and base of operations, yet I can't move east, to besiege Shanghai, since the enemy is gathering and could pose a real threat to Nanking and Tungchow.

Moreover, Allied LBA fighters are depleted. I have 19 Mustangs left in my pools, 50+ Thunderbolts, and 95 Lightnings. I'm losing 20 to 50 of these models a day. The math isn't good. So I have to modify air operations drastically, which also has an impact on what I can do on the ground and how well I can protect shipping at Tungchow.

Things are dire enough that I expect Erik to launch an all-out attack against Tungchow in the near future. I've taken countermeasures.

As long as I don't let my army wander off and get pummeled or isolated, I think this sector is secure until the cavalry arrives; but I have to monitor things carefully.

The Cavalry: The good guys are making substantial progress in Indochina. Vinh fell today, allowing a big army already in Strat Mode to move forward from Udon Thani. Probably, though, that army will have to remain at Vinh until base forces, supply and lots of AA come up, enough to provide security when my guys move on Hanoi and Cam Ranh Bay. The Udon Thani contingent includes some AA, but a lot more is in Malaya, waiting for the railroad to clear to allow rail transport to Udon and then good-road strat movement into Vietnam. The first Allied unit reached Saigon today. It's lightly defended and will fall in a few days. That may be enough to boost the Allies into the points lead for the first time ever (Erik's maintained a lead of about 800 points the past week or so).

Malaya: Singapore is a fortress. The Allied army should reach and take Malacca in about three days. From there, the siege will commence against Singapore. More importantly to the overall war effort, the Allies should secure the entire rail system leading to Bangkok within a few weeks. There's a gap in the northern sector, but Allied troops are closing from both ends and resistance is all but over. Only the poor road system is delaying things that long.

Long Term: A key event in the next week or so will be to spring RN Death Star into the South China Sea while also attending to a big supply convoy inbound from Shangri-La.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 3/24/2019 7:13:35 PM

Canoerebel

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6/1/45 and 6/2/45

You know it's a weird war when two USN DDs engage in a bombardment missions vs. Hankow, China, and undergo an attack from an IJN sub. The sub missed it's shots, the DDs later put 14 hits on the sub, and the bombardment was effective against the level 9, heavily stacked airfield.

China: The Allies have established a perimeter, of sorts, and are waiting to see if the enemy will attack or establish an MLR of their own. I've decided not to bring in supply at this time - doing so would require DS to detach and move to see for a week or so. This isn't a time to take chances in China. Supply is fine for a month or two or three, so I'll wait until the cavalry arrives (or nears) from Vietnam.

The Cavalry: The Allies hold Vinh and a large army is strat-moving by good road from Udon Thani. Saigon will fall tomorrow. The enemy has weak forces holding the bases in between, with Allied units closing that gap from both sides. Within a week, the Allies should control the rail all the way to Vinh, with a large army gathered there and ready to move on Hanoi/Haiphong. This will include a heckuva lot of AA units. All told, the Allied army moving north exceeds 11,000 AV.

Singers: The Allies took a vacated Malacca today. A smaller army is railing in their. Within a week, the Allies should be at or one hex short of Johore Bharu, beginning the Siege of Singapore. As base forces, supply and air units move forward, I hope to establish control of the air over Singers, reducing the airfield and giving the opportunity to spring RN Death Star into the South China Sea at relatively low risk.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 3/29/2019 3:33:55 PM

Canoerebel

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6/3/45 to 6/7/45

The Allies are working hard to establish the key rail link between Malaya and northern Vietnam, and there's a lot going on under the hood. But from a sparks and flames standpoint, this was a quiet period. Oh, but the amount of firepower within proximity to each other is so great that the tension is nearly unbearable. Unbearable, I say!

TNNBT: The two sides have taken positions south of Nanking, staring at each other, waiting to see if the enemy will move, daring him to. Until the cavalry arrives from Indochina, I'm keeping my forces within a tight perimeter, lest Erik overwhelm them with the huge army of his own that just arrived from Burma. Death Star is positioned at the mouth of the Yangtze and has been there for weeks. It's the premier defensive position, so I haven't moved a single hex. I want Erik to attack. I know he's considering it. I think what just happened in Miller's game might even inspire him a bit. The Allied air force, meanwhile, is fragile and can only seek battle under limited favorable circumstances. Help is on the way, and I think Erik will want to strike before it arrives.

The Cavalry: A big Allied army is gathering at Vinh, including a lot of AA units (with many, many more scheduled to come in from Malaya when the railroad is open - in fact, that's probably a key to the Allied future success in China). The Allies have Saigon and down past Hue and are working to clear the remaining bases on the railroad. I think that'll be complete within a week or ten days. By then, the rail in Malaya should also be clear, allowing efficient transit.

Malaya: The Allies are gathering at Malacca and Erik looks like he will also make a stand at Johore Bharu, just outside Singers. The rail line to the north is almost clear now. In fact, it might be clear as soon as tomorrow. When that happens, a large army will move from Malaya to Cambodia by rail, thence by good road to Saigon, thence by rail north to Vinh or points north.

RN Death Star: Remains on patrol near Georgetown, awaiting the right moment to move into the South China Sea. That moment is really a "feel" thing, and I'm not feeling it yet.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 3/29/2019 3:35:09 PM >

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 3/30/2019 5:50:31 PM

Canoerebel

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6/8/45

Intel Screen: The Allies take the points lead! It took 15 months, after I stepped in trailing by about 25k. It took 15 months mainly because Strat Bombing has been very difficult, despite holding big bases on Hokkaido, because enemy fighters and flak inflict losses at a rate I cannot sustain. And the Allied took the lead 10 months later than I did so in my game with John III.

Overall, the Allied position is strong and getting stronger. Once the Indochina army links up with the Chinese army, the Allies will be in a position (I think) to ramp up offensive action in each phase of the game - air, sea, ground. And it's about then that the Russians will activate.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 3/31/2019 3:50:31 AM

Capt. Harlock

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Hangchow is looking like the Petersburg to Shanghai's Richmond. Maybe some naval bombardment might be in order?

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 3/31/2019 6:44:19 AM

JeffroK

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And Grant is waiting for Sherman to save him!

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 3/31/2019 4:19:00 PM

Canoerebel

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Hey, love Civil War analogies! But this is Operation Market Garden, only the Allies have taken Arnhem (Nanking) with sufficient strength to hold off the enemy until XXX Corps (the army moving up from Indochina) arrives. The dovetailing of these two "fronts" with Russian activation should work out well. It would've been fun if I had landed in China early enough to run amock before Erik's Burma army arrived, but I'll take this. His army is still basically untouched (he's lost only 8.5k army losses, whereas John had lost about 35k in May 1945 in that game). He's still very strong on the ground, so I'll be cautious while surrounded so deep behind his lines. But the Allied army is strong enough to withstand whatever he might try on the ground, I think.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 3/31/2019 7:38:53 PM

JeffroK

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More like Anzio, where it was hoped a wildcat was thrown ashore only to find it was a stranded whale.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 4/1/2019 3:36:35 PM

Lecivius

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quote:

ORIGINAL: JeffroK

More like Anzio, where it was hoped a wildcat was thrown ashore only to find it was a stranded whale.

Sorry, I don't get this analogy. What am I missing?

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 4/1/2019 5:31:26 PM

Canoerebel

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I wondered the same. My thoughts ran this way: "My goodness, what might be in the AAR that would provoke such a gloomy outlook?"

There is a possibility the wheels could come off in the short term, which is why I'm playing this pretty carefully. Long-term, though, I think things are progressing very well.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 4/1/2019 8:29:56 PM

HansBolter

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Time is rapidly expiring for the use of the term 'long term'.

I'm in the last days of September '45 now with the landings on Kyushu just days away and I'm already thinking in terms of 'will I have time for that (insert planned operation here) before the scenario ends'....

Great to see a competitive game go this far.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 4/4/2019 8:02:41 PM

mind_messing

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Anzio is an apt comparison here to be fair. Waiting for the Soviets or the Indochina forces to "rescue" the Shanghai operation is simply going to take too long.

Do you intend to march the Indochinese troops over-land through China? At any rate that is the impression I gather from reading your posts.

If so, that's going to take too long.

I would suggest capitalizing on what you've gained - a series of ports in Vietnam and coastal bases in Central China. Move your shipping to Indochina, load your troops in amphib mode and off-load them at the Allied bases at and around Nanking. The Deathstar is on hand to escort.

The Arnhem analogy doesn't work. Horrocks didn't have the option to use Allied naval superiority and the Rhine to reach Arnhem. You, however, have that option.

tl;dr - don't march when you can sail.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 4/4/2019 8:27:30 PM

HansBolter

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quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

Anzio is an apt comparison here to be fair. Waiting for the Soviets or the Indochina forces to "rescue" the Shanghai operation is simply going to take too long.

Do you intend to march the Indochinese troops over-land through China? At any rate that is the impression I gather from reading your posts.

If so, that's going to take too long.

I would suggest capitalizing on what you've gained - a series of ports in Vietnam and coastal bases in Central China. Move your shipping to Indochina, load your troops in amphib mode and off-load them at the Allied bases at and around Nanking. The Deathstar is on hand to escort.

The Arnhem analogy doesn't work. Horrocks didn't have the option to use Allied naval superiority and the Rhine to reach Arnhem. You, however, have that option.

tl;dr - don't march when you can sail.

+1

I had already cleared most of China before my British army of Malaya/Burma was freed to strategically redeploy to central China for the invasion of Formosa. I was able to use the combination of rail and major road strategic movement to execute the move. You still have too much Japanese controlled territory between your central China force and Lang Son to be able to rapidly execute an SR by land.

Also take note of the fact that while British and Indian units can use strategic road movement Commonwealth units cannot.
The African and Burmese troops are better used garrisoning than strategically redeploying.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 4/7/2019 8:31:56 PM

Canoerebel

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Policeman: "You are an impatient generation."
Young Engineer: "Weren't you?"
Policeman: "Yes, we were."

Anybody recognize the lines? Which movie?

It's possible for you readers to say what you'd do if you were at the controls and had the time to fully evaluate the board and implement decisions of your own. It's not really possible to say what I ought to do now, involving massive changes in the plan, without being aware of the zillion factors I have and had access to in planning and then adjusting on the fly. There are many reasons I've chosen this plan as the one with the best odds of success. It's the right plan.

I'm not opposed to mobility. That was the very thing I cited in implementing the plan to invade Kushiro and then China.

And I'm aware of the differences in strategic movement by rail and by road and which units can take advantage of the latter and which can't. Knowing that helped me figure out the best way to handle transportation to and from Malaya to northern China and how to deploy and commit forces to clear major roads and then railroads as early as possible.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 4/8/2019 1:11:57 AM

mind_messing

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The problem as far as I see it isn't the plan. It's the speed with which it's being conducted.

It all boils down to VP's. You'll be lucky if the Indochina forces get in to position before the game is over. I'm not convinced the Soviets will generate the VP's that you need for a major victory in time.

My specific concern is your reluctance to engage Japanese units outwith the Nanking perimeter. You're in the position to ramp up the ground and naval war now. The US Army (let alone the Marines) have a massive firepower superiority over the IJA at this point in time. You need to actively exploit that. Even in the face of superior forces, you need to be bombarding IJA stacks in every hex possible. That burns IJ supplies, and that makes things difficult.

You've ships, and hundreds of them. Bombard everything that has a shoreline. You've the ships, fuel and supply spare.

You're not going to be pushed out of China at this stage. Why fight him in the difficult terrain west of Shanghai? Go north, fight in the open. Bring the big AA stack as well so level bombing is a negative return. Cut Singyang railway and get a tangible strategic benefit.

Indochina is not going to decide the outcome of this game. China won't either. You need big VP bases and that means Japan proper.

Now is the time for expansion, not consolidation. You get no bonus points for being as loss-adverse as the Allies historically were at this point in the war.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Policeman: "You are an impatient generation."
Young Engineer: "Weren't you?"
Policeman: "Yes, we were."

Anybody recognize the lines? Which movie?

It's possible for you readers to say what you'd do if you were at the controls and had the time to fully evaluate the board and implement decisions of your own. It's not really possible to say what I ought to do now, involving massive changes in the plan, without being aware of the zillion factors I have and had access to in planning and then adjusting on the fly. There are many reasons I've chosen this plan as the one with the best odds of success. It's the right plan.

I'm not opposed to mobility. That was the very thing I cited in implementing the plan to invade Kushiro and then China.

And I'm aware of the differences in strategic movement by rail and by road and which units can take advantage of the latter and which can't. Knowing that helped me figure out the best way to handle transportation to and from Malaya to northern China and how to deploy and commit forces to clear major roads and then railroads as early as possible.

quote:

Policeman: "You are an impatient generation." Young Engineer: "Weren't you?" Policeman: "Yes, we were." Anybody recognize the lines? Which movie?

"At last, they did what all the armies dreamed of doing - they began to go home."

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 4/8/2019 1:24:43 AM

Canoerebel

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Mind-Messing got the movie! It's a great one - probably one of the top 10 must-sees on a big screen.

But, as for the game, you're missing a lot of the context of the plan (which has always included the possibility of seaborne movement of the troops from Malaya/Indochina) and a host of other considerations, including supply availability now and long term. You also don't have a feel for the air war as it exists in this game - how strong enemy fighters are and how gravely that complicates any Allied movement in open terrain north of Shanghai until lots of Allied AA comes up. There are umpteen dozen factors I'm aware of that you aren't. I'm not an elite player, but I do know the situation here and what's possible and what's risky and what's best for my guys under all the circumstances.

Why is it going to take until the end of the war for the Allied army in Indochina to reach China (in general) or Shanghai region (specifically)? That army is already at Vinh, moving north with light opposition until it reaches Nanning. It'll be fighting in China in ten days. The war isn't going to end for something like eight months.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 4/8/2019 8:13:51 PM

mind_messing

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Mind-Messing got the movie! It's a great one - probably one of the top 10 must-sees on a big screen.

I need to actually getting around to reading the book at some point. Never been one for the Russian authors much.

quote:

But, as for the game, you're missing a lot of the context of the plan (which has always included the possibility of seaborne movement of the troops from Malaya/Indochina) and a host of other considerations, including supply availability now and long term.

You're concerned about long term goals. There's only so much time left on the clock. If the game runs to 1946, you'll get a draw at best. That VP ratio needs to start moving towards that magic 2:1 ratio. You've six months to do it.

There is no long-term. At best, you've got mid-term.

quote:

You also don't have a feel for the air war as it exists in this game - how strong enemy fighters are and how gravely that complicates any Allied movement in open terrain north of Shanghai until lots of Allied AA comes up.

Fighters are very limited in what they can do to ground units.

IJ bombers can have an impact on ground operations, but they don't have the payload that Allied bombers do, and they need to be massed to have a serious effect. IJ bomber damage can be limited by Allied concentration of heavy flak.

Japanese bombers need to destroy (not disable) three devices to break even. You'll be hard pressed to get Japan having a positive ratio from bombing against Allied flak alone in 1945.

In a more general note, you've a fixation on the air war. Bullwinkle was fond of saying that AE is a naval game with ground and air components. He's right. Its a common theme that players get very invested in the air war because it's sexy and big losses normally aren't too punishing. That ends up being to their determinant.

You're getting good results using your navy at Hankow. Those results to be replicated at coastal hex within a nights sail from Nanking. Throw sand in the Japanese combat power. Sand in the shape of Fletcher and other late war classes of destroyers. Don't be too afraid of losses - there's plenty of them.

Japan needs to feel the pinch at sea, and you need it to take pressure off the air front. Take a holistic approach to breaking Japanese air power - pick a big coastal IJ airbase, send some Fletchers in at night to disrupt the CAP. Follow it up with 4E's night bombing the airbase at low level. Send big sweeps in the morning to pick off the sleep-deprived and shell shocked pilots as they try to take off from a run-way pockmarked by 5 inch shells.

I agree that the air war is difficult for the Allies in 1945 against an organized and diligent Japanese player, but the Allies have more than enough assets (and not just planes) to push through.

quote:

There are umpteen dozen factors I'm aware of that you aren't. I'm not an elite player, but I do know the situation here and what's possible and what's risky and what's best for my guys under all the circumstances.

This I think is the core of your current predicament.

What's best for your guys is not what's best for your chances of winning.

In order to have the best chance to obtain a favourable VP ratio and a positive win condition, your guys need to go through hell. You need to get divisions wrecked, units bombed and ships sunk.

Your strategy is depending a great deal of the Soviet component to bring about big VP swings. To maximize your chances, the IJA needs to get bogged down in an absolute brawl in China so that the Manchurian contingent of the IJA is on it's own. It needs to be more than two stacks facing each other in hexes, it needs to be paratroopers, tank raids and a few divisions just marching around blocking railroad movements. It needs to be messy, so that when Obvert decides he'd like to move two divisions to Manchuria, he feels that he can't do it without the China front completely collapsing.

quote:

Why is it going to take until the end of the war for the Allied army in Indochina to reach China (in general) or Shanghai region (specifically)? That army is already at Vinh, moving north with light opposition until it reaches Nanning. It'll be fighting in China in ten days. The war isn't going to end for something like eight months.

Vinh to Shanghai is 29 hexes. That's a direct line. In practice it's about 31.

31 hexes x 46 miles = 1426 miles.

Assume that it's all main road, that you're able to move in movemement mode every turn and you're keeping the tanks with the infantry.

1426 miles/30 miles a day = 47.5 days.

So you're a month and a half just to get to Shanghai. That doesn't even factor in opposition. With six months before 1946, losing a month and a half before really ramping things up is beyond cutting it close.

Your current situation in China really can't be passive.

(in reply to Canoerebel)

Post #: 4014

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 4/8/2019 8:24:35 PM

Canoerebel

Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
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You're trying to micromanage* a complex system without having the benefit of enough info to do so.

I do not expect to achieve a 2:1 in 1945. I gave that up in late 1944, when I realized I had serious issues that limited strategic bombing and that Erik's fighter corps was such a beast.

I'm playing to do as well as I can by the end of the game. The plan is in place and proceeding well.

Your thoughts are valid ones and would fit into a plan of your crafting and implementation. But there's too much you aren't privy to here. For instance, your thoughts about Erik's fighters. They do inflict damage indirectly. Any of my ground units that venture into the open terrain north of Shanghai are subject to bombing in the open. I can cover them by LRCAP, but that is pure fodder against any enemy sweeps. So committing troops in the open, at this point, would just get an army ruined.

You'll have to trust me when I say I know what I'm doing with what I've been served.

*"micro-analyze" would be a better term

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 4/8/2019 8:28:12 PM >

(in reply to mind_messing)

Post #: 4015

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 4/8/2019 9:20:26 PM

mind_messing

Posts: 3393
Joined: 10/28/2013
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

You're trying to micromanage* a complex system without having the benefit of enough info to do so.

Neither term is really on the nose. Macro-analysis would be more apt. I don't like to get bogged down in the specifics beyond what is directly critical.

quote:

Your thoughts are valid ones and would fit into a plan of your crafting and implementation. But there's too much you aren't privy to here. For instance, your thoughts about Erik's fighters. They do inflict damage indirectly. Any of my ground units that venture into the open terrain north of Shanghai are subject to bombing in the open. I can cover them by LRCAP, but that is pure fodder against any enemy sweeps. So committing troops in the open, at this point, would just get an army ruined.

Fighters aren't very good at bombing.

You can be bombed in the open terrain, but LRCAP isn't an absolute requirement. Flak can (and will) provide a passive counter to IJ bombing via a sufficiently high rate of attrition to make long-term bombing of your units either:

- unstainable due to losses (either outright due to ops)
- ineffective due to moving to a higher altitude to mitigate losses.

Either is acceptable, given the current situation.

Beyond that, how many combat units have you operational in China? How many bombers would the IJ need to amass to "get an army ruined"? What proportion of the IJ air force will be needed to generate those results, when considering the limited bombload of IJ bombers? The IJ can wipe out an Allied division from the air, provided they put enough effort in. They'll really struggle with 4 divisions protected by a half dozen AA units.

It's perfectly possible for an Allied army to remain operational under sustained bombing from IJ bombers, provided there's a critical mass of flak. Will it operate at peak effectiveness? Absolutely not. But they can (and absolutely should) make some progress.

It's 1945. Flak is as good as it gets for the Allies. Flak is your friend, and it belongs on the frontline :)

(in reply to Canoerebel)

Post #: 4016

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 4/8/2019 9:28:37 PM

Canoerebel

Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
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Yeah, I know all about flak; I know where it is, where I want it, and when it's going to be where I want it. That's the kind of info you aren't privy to, so you have to make assumptions that won't, as it turns out, be accurate. :)

(in reply to mind_messing)

Post #: 4017

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 4/8/2019 9:31:54 PM

mind_messing

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Joined: 10/28/2013
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Yeah, I know all about flak; I know where it is, where I want it, and when it's going to be where I want it. That's the kind of info you aren't privy to, so you have to make assumptions that won't, as it turns out, be accurate. :)

I hope that works out for you.

(in reply to Canoerebel)

Post #: 4018

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 4/8/2019 9:37:05 PM

Canoerebel

Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
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It probably won't. :)

A lot of what's going on is shaped by my perception of Erik's ability as a player. He's elite, so far as I'm concerned.

(in reply to mind_messing)

Post #: 4019

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 4/8/2019 10:19:59 PM

JohnDillworth

Posts: 3100
Joined: 3/19/2009
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quote:

It probably won't. :)

A lot of what's going on is shaped by my perception of Erik's ability as a player. He's elite, so far as I'm concerned.

Notes from the peanut gallery. Erik seems to be playing you as tough as any opponent I've seen. That is not a comment on you but he just doesn't seem to make mistakes. He is careful, meticulous and is playing the long game. He is not going to make a mistake so you will just have to grind it out. You have made some bold moves and Erik has counter each move as well as possible. A pleasure to watch. Well played gentlemen, both of you

_____________________________

Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly

(in reply to Canoerebel)

Post #: 4020