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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 6/5/2019 5:14:45 AM

BBfanboy

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I urge you to reconsider a strong thrust from north to south by the Russians. They have some very good flak units to protect the troops, but the compelling reason is that you need the points for Peiping (X100) to have a hope of winning. The road that runs north from Peiping should be vulnerable to tank attacks with the rest of the horde following.

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Post #: 4201

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 6/5/2019 7:37:34 AM

traskott

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Agree. If you can deploy a couple of AA brigades escorting the main stacks, Erik will soon be counting his loses of bombers by hundreds..

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 6/5/2019 8:15:05 AM

Barb

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Yup, Add the full Russian "Steam Roller" to the party. The more you bring the better - Japan is badly stretched already.

And do not hesitate to shock attack to Singapore with full strength. The more firepower you bring the more enemy defensive fire will be suppressed and you can get some good fort reduction both with combat engineers and AV ratio. Just make sure your units are well rested before the jump.

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Post #: 4203

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 6/5/2019 1:48:50 PM

HansBolter

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I found the sweep down from the north with the Russians progressed considerably faster than the drive west from Vladivostock.

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Post #: 4204

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 6/5/2019 2:20:17 PM

Canoerebel

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The Russians will mostly come down the eastern valley, aiming for Korea, as opposed to vectoring into the desert for northern China. The primary objectives early will be places like Harbin and Mutkiang, followed by Muken, followed by Korea. Originally I had considered vectoring towards Peiping and northern China, but the Western Allies will handle that vector. All subject to change, of course.

P.S. Given BBfanboy's urgings, and the counsel of you others, I took another looks at the vectors and made some adjustments. Thanks.

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Post #: 4205

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 6/6/2019 4:58:30 AM

Canoerebel

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8/1/45

The route to Allied victory is to take Manila, take Singapore, take Shanghai (and possibly Chungking), pocket and destroy enemy troops in China and Korea; find and destroy vulnerable enemy shipping in the shrinking empire, and employ DS fighters and LBA in a ramped-up strategic bombing campaign. The only major project left to do to fully implement this plan is to pick up the Allied army at Haiphong and transport it to Tungchow/Nanking. All the other assets are now in place.

Russia: Japanese fighters score a lopsided victory vs. Russian fighters over Vladivostock (only a few Russian squadrons were active but Erik found them). Russian paratroops take a vacant city in the interior and another base auto-flips. The Russians main objective is Korea, though they will watch for opportunities in China.

Luzon: Allied paratroops continue to take vacant cities around Manila. The vanguard Allied armor is a hex from Manila. Erik is not reinforcing and it doesn't look like he'll fight here. The Allies army of 3,500 AV will be more than enough to handle Manila and its garrison of 20k. Accordingly, Death Star, having refueled, can move on to help pick up the big army at Haiphong.

Singers: Still awaiting arrival of one more Aussie division, one armored unit, and one combat engineering regiment. They should arrive at Johore in two or three days.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 6/6/2019 12:51:58 PM

BBfanboy

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That's odd about Arshaan flipping - in stock it has a static fortress which should prevent any flip.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 6/6/2019 1:24:00 PM

Canoerebel

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Well, I didn't actually see Arsahan flip sides. I just assumed it did.

Perhaps there's an error in Scenario 2, or perhaps the unit withdraws? I dunno.

Look at the Prep objective in your post of the Arsahan fortress!

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Post #: 4208

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 6/6/2019 2:40:04 PM

BBfanboy

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Well there you go - the fortress packed up and went to Aden! Better check to see if it flipped to the Japanese!

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 6/7/2019 11:02:04 PM

Canoerebel

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8/3/45

Manila: Probing deliberate attack by Allied armor comes off at 1:1, drops forts to 5, results in heavy enemy casualties, and drops nearly every enemy unit AV to 1 or 0. This base may fall before the infantry arrives over the next 2-4 days. Since the Luzon invasion is basically secure and done, DS and The Herd departed for Haiphong to pick up an army bound for China. The Luzon army will then handle the Formosa invasion (an Amphib Force HQ is 100% prepped, so that can proceed without fighting-unit prep).

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 6/8/2019 12:05:14 AM

Bearcat2

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Arshaan Fortress withdraws in Sc1 & Sc2 in mid 44'.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 6/8/2019 1:26:37 AM

BBfanboy

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Thanks Bearcat2. I was not aware of that.

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Post #: 4212

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 6/10/2019 1:01:04 PM

Canoerebel

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8/4/45

Luzon: Manila falls on the 4th. This has been the closest thing to blitzkrieg in the war, for the Allies. They landed at Appari on July 26 and essentially conquered Luzon in nine days. Most of the Allied army here has already switched prep to distant targets and will rest at Manila until picked up for the Formosa invasion in a few weeks.

DS & The Herd: Steaming west unmolested, The Herd should arrive at Haiphong in two or three days. There it will load an army bound for China.

Singapore: The Allied army - about 7k AV - is underway. The crossing should take place in three days.

Russia: Thus far, the Russian army is making decent progress. Erik's biding his time, waiting until the advance armor gets within range of his bombers. I have to balance progress against that threat. It doesn't appear that he has any intention of fighting forward.

Erik's Strategy: With the exception of stinging raids and hitting targets of opportunity, Erik seems to be withdrawing into a tight perimeter centered on the Homes Islands, Korea, and parts of China. He's given up Luzon without a fight and I think he's basically evacuated the DEI. I'll try not to give him a good shot at a close-in, well-coordinated all-out kamikaze attack against Death Star. Very soon now, the Allies will begin the concentrated strat bombing attack on Home Island industry, including DS fighters.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 6/10/2019 4:07:49 PM

mind_messing

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

The Russians will mostly come down the eastern valley, aiming for Korea, as opposed to vectoring into the desert for northern China. The primary objectives early will be places like Harbin and Mutkiang, followed by Muken, followed by Korea. Originally I had considered vectoring towards Peiping and northern China, but the Western Allies will handle that vector. All subject to change, of course.

P.S. Given BBfanboy's urgings, and the counsel of you others, I took another looks at the vectors and made some adjustments. Thanks.

Most of the Sov troops concentrate at Kalgan. In my experience as a defender, the Soviet tankers seem to move quickest running either

- into Linhsi then fanning out down the main roads.
- down the yellow trail between Linhsi and Arshaan

Once they're on that terrain, there is a lot of ability to bypass IJ positions and effectively turn up out of nowhere.

The east tends to be a big, slow slog until the IJ lines get worn down, but it is awful terrain.

quote:

Very soon now, the Allies will begin the concentrated strat bombing attack on Home Island industry, including DS fighters.

I've had some discussion over on Obvert's AAR regarding the HR's of this game regarding B-29's on night airbase attack. In short, I think it limits your options to fight his concentrated airpower. I've agitated for moving the limit up to 100 or even 150 bombers. Would be interesting to hear your thoughts on this.

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Post #: 4214

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 6/10/2019 4:18:45 PM

Canoerebel

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Like most house rules it was proposed in good faith to address a perceived problem but had troublesome, nettlesome, unintended consequences.

The house rule is highly disadvantageous to the Allies. Knowing that the threat of night bombing against his airfields and ports is small, Erik can reduce his night fighters at any particular base, therefore having enough to spread all over the place. As a result, the threat of meaningful Allied night air strikes against a port or airfield in the Home Islands (and a few other select places) is basically nil. Fifty bombers on night missions of that kind are basically useless against flak and a few enemy fighters on CAP. If I had 50 B-29Bs set on night attack against Gifu's airfield, I'd lose more bombers than I'd destroy fighters on the ground. Ditto every other base of consequence.

So I only use these missions against bases unlikely to be well-defended. In recent weeks, night missions vs. Manila, Takao, Balikpapan and Soerabaja airfields or ports have been quite successful. But Erik is withdrawing into the Home Islands, as I noted above, so these opportunities will soon vanish.

This rule, combined with the rule against strategic bombing in China, helped Erik a lot. But they are what they are. We're so late in the game now that it's fine leaving them as is. Let's see how things wind down as the year winds down.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 6/10/2019 9:52:59 PM

BBfanboy

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Congrats on taking Manila - a nice X100 base with a shipyard to boot! Go Yanks! ...er... Go Rebs? Go Renks? Oh, heck - Go Dan!

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 6/12/2019 3:21:48 PM

grond69

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What would happen if you embedded a 50 plane airfield strike in a large, 200+ night strategic? The large strike might spread the NF enough to get a reasonable airfield strike in addition to the damage from the strategic strike.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 6/12/2019 3:26:11 PM

Canoerebel

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They generally don't fly in coordinated fashion. Most night strikes are broken into little groups that enemy fighters and flak can handle. 50 bombers on airfield strike don't have the oomph to accomplish enough to offset losses to flak, fighters or both.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 6/12/2019 3:28:47 PM

grond69

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Ah, of course. Thanks for the free education! Looking forward to seeing how things work out

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 6/12/2019 3:34:58 PM

Canoerebel

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I'm optimistic about the future. Basically, since the start of 1945, Allied strategy has emphasized conservation of the B-29s until the day comes when my LBA fighters and naval fighters are in position to work together to sweep enemy airfields. That's been done a few times (just before the carriers steamed east to escort the inbound merchantmen). The results were encouraging. In a week, DS will be back in the East China Sea. From that point forward, the combined air war should proceed until the end of the war (except for one two-week window in which DS will return to Manila to pick up the army to deliver to Formosa). So basically the war is about to accelerate, and the B-29 pools are strong.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 6/12/2019 4:28:46 PM

Canoerebel

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When I stepped in effective March 1, 1944, the first decision made was to re-orient the Allies. Joseph had a massive concentration in SWPac, around Rabaul and Milne Bay and vicinity. It seemed the Allies were pretty far behind and needed to close with the Home Islands. So the Allies invaded Sikhalin Island (successfully, but it was a close thing!) in June. I thought that put the Allied air force in position to efficiently take the war to the northern Home Islands. In the real war, that would've been the case. In a game against a newbie, that would've been the case. But in a game against a player like Erik it wasn't even close.

For about a half year, I tried everything I could think of: daylight bombing, nighttime bombing, various altitudes, various targets, naked or escorted, many targets or just one, my orders or commander discretion (only a few of those missions tried), sweeps high or low or mixed or middle, etc. There were some successes but by and large I learned that Erik had the kinds of fighters, the kinds of pilots, and the quantity of flak to make the endeavors prohibitively expensive. Allied bomber and fighter losses were high and the pools were far to slim by early '45 to keep on doing what I was doing. Even the P-47N couldn't handle what he had!

When it became clear the Allies weren't in a position to double the score in the first half of 1945, I decided it was better to proceed with things that were efficient and to (mostly) stand down the things that were inefficient until I could change the paradigm. There was still a lot of fighting going on, but mostly it was to keep Erik on his toes while putting the Allies into position to efficiently score points. The Allies managed to take SE Asia and to land in China, so there were some gains. But time passed and it seemed like the Allied lead was only creeping along. Yet, I think in the end the Allies will achieve victory more quickly than if I'd try to go toe-to-toe with Erik, battering my way to victory. Recent carrier sweeps vs. Nagasaki combined with LBA, plus the quick fall of Luzon, were the kinds of successes I was working for. With the Russians active, with the Allies ashore in strength in China and about to add to that number significantly, with Singapore possibly in order, and with DS soon to be available for full-time offensive duty around the Home Island, I think the Allied lead will increase steadily now.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 6/13/2019 4:58:14 AM

Canoerebel

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8/5/45 to 8/7/45

Singapore: The crossing shock-attack should take place tomorrow. I don't really know what to expect. I'm a bit concerned that Erik will have combat ships available to bombard, as time goes on. To address the possibility, more strike aircraft were moved forward to Johore, with B-29s ordered (again) to hit Palembang's airfield at night. That's the only airfield he has in the vicinity to provide LRCAP to his ships. I think I'm sorta optimistic about the prospects at Singers, to become a medium-term matter, but my feelings of optimism sometimes have no basis in cold, hard fact.

The Herd: A mass of Allied merchantmen are two days into loading a big, big army at Haiphong. It's probably going to take four days total. Then the mass will move to Taichow to unload (it may drop off 2nd Marine Division on Formosa en route). DS is on patrol near Hainan Island.

Luzon: All enemy units eliminated at Manila. Two small IJ units left on the island - one at Clark, one at Bataan. The Allies have taken Roxas and Iloilo, plus several other islands. Most of the army will rest at Manila, waiting for pick-up and the invasion of Formosa, probably at least three weeks off.

China: All quiet. Erik never did get frisky against the Allies while DS has been away, even though the Allied army was reduced considerably to provide the troops for the Luzon invasion.

Russia: The Russian army is advancing slowly but steadily without serious opposition to this point. Paratroops have taken advanced bases. Erik has 300 fighters at Chingchow. He's gonna hammer my forward guys at some propitious moment when Russian AA hasn't quite caught up.

Strategic Bombing: I think he's reconfigured his fighter priorities and is awaiting the atomic bombs. Those won't be dropped until DS is back on station, contributing the fighters needed to sweep his big bases.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 6/13/2019 11:33:49 AM

HansBolter

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Of course since my game is against the AI it can't truly be used ad an example for yours, but on the one very disappointing atomic bomb drop I made on Tokyo, I held back for the longest time over fears that the mission wouldn't get through the 500 fighters stationed there since I was out of fighter escort range and have restricted strategic bombing to night missions.

When I did decide to pull the trigger, I was extremely surprised to see no interception of the unescorted single squadron mission.
It flew in unopposed at 30K feet.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 6/13/2019 2:25:02 PM

Canoerebel

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Thanks, Hans. That's helpful information. I'd take that to mean I could order the strike at any time, but I suppose I'll wait a bit. I really want to see how the next phase goes - coordinated strat bombing for days or weeks. Is Erik's fighter corps so strong that my pools can't sustain the effort, or have the Allies reached the point (from a proximity standpoint and quality standpoint) that there's a noticeable trend favoring the Allies? Probably in about a month, I'll finalize A-Bomb plans.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 6/13/2019 4:15:26 PM

uncivil_servant

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Like most house rules it was proposed in good faith to address a perceived problem but had troublesome, nettlesome, unintended consequences.

The house rule is highly disadvantageous to the Allies. Knowing that the threat of night bombing against his airfields and ports is small, Erik can reduce his night fighters at any particular base, therefore having enough to spread all over the place. As a result, the threat of meaningful Allied night air strikes against a port or airfield in the Home Islands (and a few other select places) is basically nil. Fifty bombers on night missions of that kind are basically useless against flak and a few enemy fighters on CAP. If I had 50 B-29Bs set on night attack against Gifu's airfield, I'd lose more bombers than I'd destroy fighters on the ground. Ditto every other base of consequence.

So I only use these missions against bases unlikely to be well-defended. In recent weeks, night missions vs. Manila, Takao, Balikpapan and Soerabaja airfields or ports have been quite successful. But Erik is withdrawing into the Home Islands, as I noted above, so these opportunities will soon vanish.

This rule, combined with the rule against strategic bombing in China, helped Erik a lot. But they are what they are. We're so late in the game now that it's fine leaving them as is. Let's see how things wind down as the year winds down.

I just think you negotiated away so many advantages. Because the game engine.. may.. not be 100% accurate even if you ignore r/l ability to flip to incendiaries and night radar.. at the same time japan can magically transform rice and bananas into aluminum and their magically increased oxygen manufacturing program for high level flying for their 100 times reality sized air force. (ophh.. and the magic robots they get to build all the stuff as we all know they NEVER had a manpower shortage.. whistling).

He wants you to limit them to what happened in real life then he should oppose with real life numbers. You switched to night bombing for necessity, as the US is outnumbered by the IJ air-force. Let's have that sink in.. a manpower and resource poor nation with a GDP of under 200 outproduces the nation closing on 1500. That and the magical oil and fuel railroad allowing tanking from NE asia to the Home Islands not the longer trek to and from the oil producing areas.

All the house rules proposed seem to affect allies usage of their available materials.
You think he would have approved to modify the totally illogical way the game engine can ship oil/fuel to the NE by keeping the little Chinese base manned with a single Chinese unit to "break" the magical railroad would he have approved it? Honestly ask yourself if he would have agreed to that rule limiting his economy benefiting from the game engine versus your agreeing to limit your air force based on the game engine.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 6/13/2019 4:18:11 PM

uncivil_servant

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quote:

ORIGINAL: HansBolter

Of course since my game is against the AI it can't truly be used ad an example for yours, but on the one very disappointing atomic bomb drop I made on Tokyo, I held back for the longest time over fears that the mission wouldn't get through the 500 fighters stationed there since I was out of fighter escort range and have restricted strategic bombing to night missions.

When I did decide to pull the trigger, I was extremely surprised to see no interception of the unescorted single squadron mission.
It flew in unopposed at 30K feet.

I would hope it was because IRL the A-bomb bombers were modified to fly at a altitude higher than normal for b-29s and above anything a fighter of the time could reach - as well as keeping the bomber as far away from the explosion as possible, hence no interception

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 6/13/2019 4:48:08 PM

Canoerebel

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quote:

ORIGINAL: uncivil_servant

I just think you negotiated away so many advantages..... ...

I didn't negotiate the House Rules. I stepped in for Joseph in 1944. He had stepped in for Historiker some time prior thereto. So I'm the grandson of the negotiator. :)

I'm not concerned about the rule. It's been in place since the game started. It'll be taken into consideration, at least in my mind, when I evaluate how I feel about how I did in the game. :)

We willingly give the Japanese player concessions to make the game more enjoyable for them, so that we Allied players can still find fun opponents willing to endure '44 and '45. In the evolutionary scheme of things, the balancing is still young. We may find that the concessions have been too much or not enough or, if we're very lucky, just right. I think Erik's House Rules are quite helpful to Japan, but that means I get to tinker with 1945 aircraft and ships and units, so it's fun even while being challenging and at times frustrating.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 6/13/2019 5:24:52 PM

BillBrown

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Just so everyone understands a bit, these are the original house rules from Erics first post in his AAR, started in 2012, 7 years ago.
Perceptions were different then and there have been a number of patches since then that may have changed the need for these.

No Night bombing at less than 50% moonlight
Max sweep at second best maneuver band.
No Strategic bombing in China by either side for the entire war.

PPs to be paid to change a restricted unit to an unrestricted command before marching accross a border.
Thai units can move into Burma and Malaya.
Chinese units can be given orders on the first turn.
A Chinese 'Reservation' in the central four cities until 1/44 should the rest of China collapse.

One CV portstrike on turn 1.
Allies can only give orders to existing TFs on turn 1. Force Z may be re-directed.
Invasions on hexes that don�t contain a dot or base are allowed.

No (other nation) Allied air or naval units in Russia are allowed, even if Russia is activated.

Notice that it does not seem that all of these house rules are in effect.

That said, when you take over a game you have house rules in effect and while you can negotiate them somewhat, you
tend to be stuck with most of them. It is what it is. And as CR has stated, he is willing to abide by the house
rules and proceed on with the game. I do not think it is up to the peanut gallery to chastise either player for the
decisions they make.

< Message edited by BillBrown -- 6/13/2019 5:26:17 PM >

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 6/13/2019 5:33:41 PM

Canoerebel

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I don't recognize some of those House Rules! To my knowledge, there's no maneuver band rule nor moonlight rule nor anything about a Chinese "reservation" (when I stepped in, the entire Chinese army was at Karachi, of all places!). At least, that's the way I've been playing it since 3/1/44. :)

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Post #: 4229

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 6/13/2019 5:41:14 PM

BillBrown

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I do know that Joseph and Erik negotiated the house rules, but I have no idea what changed at that point. I think the main point is that as long as you and Erik are happy with the house rules,
or at least are willing to abide by them, then we as the peanut gallery should not criticize them. I personally do not like any house rules, but that is me and if that limits who will take me
on in a game, so be it.

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Post #: 4230