Canoerebel
Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
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Nearing (but not at) the Endgame
We're at mid-January 1946 (I'll post an update later), so I've been thinking over the game and its turning points. For me, as the Allied player, there were three crucial decisions in the game. Remember, I stepped in for Joseph (SqzMyLemon) effective 3/1/1944.
1. The entire Allied OOB was weighted in SWPac, from Rabaul and PM back. (The secondary front in Burma was in the woods, low on supply and still fighting with 1941 squads!) From reading Obvert's and Joseph's AARs, I knew Obvert was prepared to counter any thrust out of SWPac. So, where to for the Allies? Based on all kinds of info and hunches, I chose NoPac. It took more than three months to shift everything around for the late June '44 invasion of Sikhalin Island. That big gamble succeeded but it also resulted in about four months of nip-and-tuck fighting, as Erik fought viciously. Hey, the Allies prevailed!
2. But then, by late '44, I found that the Allies were stuck in a corner. Due to Erik's immense fighter corps, pilot quality, AA, and thin Allied fighter pools, strategic bombing wasn't going to be efficient for the Allies from what few large enemy bases are within decent range of Sikhalin Island. Moreover, the Allies were bottled up in Burma and Erik held all of China in a vice-like grip. Somehow, I had to open a new front to the South. The decision was made to shift the Allied army from Sikhalin Island to China via invasion, while also awaiting the right chance to move the army in India/Burma to Malaya via invasion. All that took a very long time but was ultimately successful, which then opened up Singers, Sumatra, Java, Borneo, Luzon, Formosa and Indochina.
3. With the Allies holding a good lodgment on the China coast, the Russians activating, and a huge Allied force moving north from Indochina/Luzon, the question was whether to immediately invade the Home Islands or Korea or to instead work deep into China to handle Chungking and other huge points centers. I chose the latter. I felt confident that the Allies could take Chungking before the end of February 1946 (when I think the game ends). I had doubts whether there would still be enough time to handle most of the other big enemy bases, like Hong Kong, Changsha, etc. I didn't think there was any chance of time enough remaining to then move on to Korea or the Home Islands.
I was wrong. The Allies steamrolled through China and took Chungking by early January. Now they're expeditiously moving on the remaining enemy bases, which are all falling or cracking quickly. And most of the huge Allied army in China will make it to Korea by late January or early February.
I also had notions of an Allied invasion of Hokkaido, most likely Bihoro, but I didn't like the idea of a big amphibious op under meager carrier protection close to huge enemy airfields, when Erik has been shepherding his kamikazes for the entire game (and I have little confidence in LRCAP under these conditions). Eventually, I decided to land a massive reinforcing army at Wakkanai for an overland campaign starting from there and aimed at Sapporo. The first key attack will take place tomorrow, in the forest hex south of Wakkanai.
The Allied OOB is utterly immense at this point, so the game is little fun for Erik. The challenge is whether the Allies can achieve 2:1 by the end of February. I think it's 50/50.
There's also indications Erik's economy may be cracking. The Jap army in China has no supply, which isn't a surprise. He's not defending air attacks from Hiroshima on south. And recent Allied air raids vs. airfields on Hokkaido did heavy damage that Erik doesn't seem to be repairing. Repairs don't take supply, but I wonder if his engineers are inactive or gone? Even if he is hurting now, he'll be marshalling his assets for final battles around his core bases (Tokyo to Osaka), so there's a need for caution until the situation clarifies.
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