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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/26/2017 11:16:12 PM

Canoerebel

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3/7/44

Erik is out today. John is out of town this weekend. So both games are getting a lot of scrutiny.

Diego Garcia: To this point I don't see any evidence that Erik the Emperor has any notions of going on the offensive in 1944. And there aren't many places around the map that would trouble me if he did go on the offensive. But Midway and Diego Garcia are two that would. Midway just got a second Marine defense battalion. Diego Garcia is about to get an East African brigade. While I don't anticipate enemy invasion, these bases are vital. I need broad avenues without lurking enemy patrols when the time comes to move somewhere deep in strength.

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Post #: 91

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/26/2017 11:25:41 PM

BBfanboy

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Hmmm - the stacking limit on DG is 60,000 - enough to use it to accumulate troops for a good-sized op somewhere without prying eyes on them.

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Post #: 92

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/26/2017 11:43:35 PM

Canoerebel

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3/7/44

Ramree Island: Ideally, the Allies would be well served to bring in tons of supply to Ramree, then allowing it to trickle inland to the troops.

Well, lookee here - Ramree is a level three port! That's some infrastructure (thanks to Historiker and/or SqzMyLemon).

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Post #: 93

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/27/2017 2:44:38 AM

Major Shane

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Discovered this AAR today. Great read. Count me in as subscribed.

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Post #: 94

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/27/2017 4:22:40 AM

Canoerebel

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Thanks for reading, Shane (and all others who pop in).

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Post #: 95

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/27/2017 4:28:07 AM

Canoerebel

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I've been comparing the situation in this game March '44 with the situation in my game with John III as of the same date. In that game, the Allies had an advanced position and marked carrier superiority at the expense of troop numbers and lift capacity (merchant ships). I needed to close with Japan for strategic bombing purposes and I could see holes in the enemy's defenses.

In this game, the Allies have a disadvantageous position, comparatively speaking. The have carrier superiority that's significant and have far more troops and immensely more lift capacity. I need to close with Japan for strategic bombing purposes and I don't know if my opponent is the kind to leave holes in his defenses.

Can I find holes?

If not is there a way to overcome an apparent lack of holes?

Or should I use Joseph's massive base of operations and continue along one or both vectors he was taking (DEI and CePac/SwPac)?

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Post #: 96

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/27/2017 4:46:55 AM

BillBrown

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You may not find holes in obverts defense, you would then have to make your own holes.

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Post #: 97

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/27/2017 5:08:20 AM

Canoerebel

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The odds are there are holes somewhere - or at least weaknesses in the parchment. The map is too big for Erik to cover over possible base (I hope). So if I can sleuth out a likely weakness or two or six....there's a tactic that's available in this game that's prohibited by House Rules in most games: the non-base invasion (I have to double-check that - I still don't have a complete copy of the HR as amended). So, say I get good information to believe that a base is weakly defended or vulnerable in some way...a vulnerability that Erik intended to address by the ability to rail in troops prior to invasion. By landing small detachments, the Allies might be able to cut off rail access to that base.

But if Erik does have the map covered it's gonna be darned hard to find likely places.

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Post #: 98

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/27/2017 11:13:04 AM

JeffroK

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At some point the Allies have to bite the bullet and create a hole. Holding the Rabaul area gives you a solid base with good airfields and ports, but does direct your line of approach to certain sectors.

IMVHO, you need to create a threat that has to be reacted to and draw any reserve such as KB away from your real threat. Whether this is the North Pacific, Burma, DEI or Central Pacific is up to you, have fun.

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Post #: 99

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/28/2017 1:13:52 AM

Bif1961

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Good luck I am sure you will give him the run for his life.

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Post #: 100

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/28/2017 1:33:28 AM

Canoerebel

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3/8/44

Merauke: Invasion Merauke green-lighted, but on a much scaled down version. Merauke is a useful base but doesn't figure into my plans in a material way. I don't want to risk 5th Aussie Div. and the assault shipping carrying it. The enemy garrison is weak. So I'll try a small scale invasion supported by heavy bombing.

The real purpose of this invasion is to generate activity that gives Erik something, anything to focus on. Both sides are playing pretty hands-off ball here. He needs something to chew over occasionally.

Why does he need something to chew over? I need enough activity on the front - Burma, SWPac - that there's a purpose in his defending.

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Post #: 101

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/28/2017 3:28:11 AM

crsutton

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quote:

ORIGINAL: JeffK

At some point the Allies have to bite the bullet and create a hole. Holding the Rabaul area gives you a solid base with good airfields and ports, but does direct your line of approach to certain sectors.

IMVHO, you need to create a threat that has to be reacted to and draw any reserve such as KB away from your real threat. Whether this is the North Pacific, Burma, DEI or Central Pacific is up to you, have fun.

I think the hole is is carrier force. I would look to force a fight in an attempt to remove 5 or 6 more from the game. But then again, he will need to conform to your desires and he is no fool.

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Post #: 102

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/28/2017 8:49:34 PM

Canoerebel

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3/09/44

Invasion Merauke: A small invasion force against a small garrison in an unimportant place. What's going on here?

From Erik's perspective, he's fighting with house money. What happens at Merauke doesn't matter a whit to him. Here he has a chance to blunt a weak invasion force while getting a feel for what I'm doing.

From my perspective, I want to get a feel for how Erik does things while giving him some small reason to think I'm interested enough in this area to do this. I'd like to pick up the base on the cheap - small ground units relying on heavy 4EB use. The main thing I don't want to do is risk 5th Aussie Div. and my APAs. The latter because I don't want to lose them. The former because I don't want to unload it at a forward base that doesn't matter to then have to re-load it. That'll take time and the base is too far forward - to exposed to enemy interference.

Let's see who prevails in this little contest. It might well be Eric. It really doesn't matter to either side unless I lose APAs.

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< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 8/29/2017 12:57:19 AM >

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Post #: 103

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/29/2017 12:56:44 AM

Canoerebel

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3/10/44

Merauke: The Allies take Merauke. This is a small campaign for an unimportant base, but with some significant little dividends.

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< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 8/29/2017 12:57:08 AM >

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Post #: 104

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/29/2017 2:10:37 AM

Canoerebel

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3/10/44

Burma: I don't expect to make real progress for months (time needed to bring in supply and build forward airfields). But there's a small chance that something worthwhile is developing on the SW quadrant.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/29/2017 2:18:47 AM

Canoerebel

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3/10/44

SigInt: Reports of an IJA division as Foochow. No hole there.

Another report of a bunch of troops at a base I'm looking at carefully. At first I thought, "Dang it! Erik is prepared there too!"

The more I think about it, the more my thoughts shift to, "Hmmm."

There are no stacking limits here. That makes picking the wrong base bad news. I'd hate to land at Jakarta only to find 518,000 soldiers there.

But the Allies can land 518,000 troops in a hex too. And possibly use the "non-base invasion" tactic (if it's permitted by House Rule, and I think it is) to isolated bases from immediate reinforcement by rail.

I'd rather find key bases that have no garrisons. That's always fun. But it's not likely to happen in this game. Not against Erik. Not if he has a division at Foochow.

But what if I get SigInt that there are 35,000 troops in a key hex - enough for Erik to feel like he has that base properly defended....but not enough to withstand an invasion of 125,000 troops 100% prepped with plenty of bombardment TFs to back them up.

The Allies have to take one base somewhere and can then land an army of 500,000 (or more) to deal with a Hokkaido or Formosa or Luzon etc. That's a big order. That's tough. That's dangerous.

But the Allies should have a decided carrier advantage and a merchant marine possibly capable of carrying 1,000,000 men and enough supply to handle matters for six months or longer.

Those are the thoughts running through my mind. Big stakes. Big challenges. Difficult to achieve surprise. Perhaps hard to get a foothold. But not beyond possibility.

I haven't done the math yet, but would you invade Hokkaido with 1,000,000 men? Would you take on 300,000 with 1 million?

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/29/2017 3:12:53 AM

Canoerebel

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3/10/44

SigInt: Just watching for stuff.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/29/2017 5:17:32 AM

BBfanboy

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

3/10/44

SigInt: Reports of an IJA division as Foochow. No hole there.

Another report of a bunch of troops at a base I'm looking at carefully. At first I thought, "Dang it! Erik is prepared there too!"

The more I think about it, the more my thoughts shift to, "Hmmm."

There are no stacking limits here. That makes picking the wrong base bad news. I'd hate to land at Jakarta only to find 518,000 soldiers there.

But the Allies can land 518,000 troops in a hex too. And possibly use the "non-base invasion" tactic (if it's permitted by House Rule, and I think it is) to isolated bases from immediate reinforcement by rail.

I'd rather find key bases that have no garrisons. That's always fun. But it's not likely to happen in this game. Not against Erik. Not if he has a division at Foochow.

But what if I get SigInt that there are 35,000 troops in a key hex - enough for Erik to feel like he has that base properly defended....but not enough to withstand an invasion of 125,000 troops 100% prepped with plenty of bombardment TFs to back them up.

The Allies have to take one base somewhere and can then land an army of 500,000 (or more) to deal with a Hokkaido or Formosa or Luzon etc. That's a big order. That's tough. That's dangerous.

But the Allies should have a decided carrier advantage and a merchant marine possibly capable of carrying 1,000,000 men and enough supply to handle matters for six months or longer.

Those are the thoughts running through my mind. Big stakes. Big challenges. Difficult to achieve surprise. Perhaps hard to get a foothold. But not beyond possibility.

I haven't done the math yet, but would you invade Hokkaido with 1,000,000 men? Would you take on 300,000 with 1 million?

I tried the landings at non-base hexes a few times and each time casualties were ~ 50%. Your prep for a nearby base does not help with a non-base landing.
I think paratroops by air drop or sub transport are a better way to cut rail lines. Or use Raiders from APDs to land at the non-base hex. You can secure it against enemy interference but you can't stop the surf from wrecking your Higgins boats in a major landing.

Hokkaido- yes to 1,000,000 vs 300K, but only if I had lots of other units to poke at the empire elsewhere. I don't like the idea of all the eggs in one basket.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/29/2017 1:15:42 PM

Chickenboy

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
I haven't done the math yet, but would you invade Hokkaido with 1,000,000 men? Would you take on 300,000 with 1 million?

What the heck? I may as well limit myself to this AAR...

The answer to your query is 'it depends'. 1MM vs. 300k in a clear hex that has been reduced or forested / heavy urban? In 1944 USA squads and Shermans or underarmed 1941 squads? Post bombardment or surprise attack? Presumptive fort levels high or a meeting engagement?

Too many variables to give a meaningful blanket response. I'm not opposed to this calculus provided that everything else is in my favor. You're unlikely to get that bias until late in the game and in more peripheral regions. Attack the Tokyo plains in 3/44 with beaucoup kamikazes, SCTF and KB opposition? Not hardly.

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Post #: 109

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/29/2017 1:34:52 PM

Canoerebel

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This isn't a specific proposal but just an idea I'm toying with. There are a number of potential targets under consideration. The date might be three months out. The troops would be up to date, well supplied, with heavy bombardment-by-ship potential. I don't know exactly how many men I could carry but it would be a lot. The Allied merchant marine is unparalleled, in my experience (Thanks, Joseph!). The Allies should have decided carrier superiority (Thanks, Joseph!) but the Kaigun will be strong and the IJAF and army formidable.

This would be like my Big Tent invasion of the DEI in November 1943 against John III, with the idea that the Allies would come, stay, never leave. The idea of course has challenges and risks that may or may not be insurmountable.

Those are the kinds of things I'm pondering. I can go all in or I can take a more methodical approach. But I can't afford to be too methodical. Can I afford to be bold against Erik?

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/29/2017 1:50:25 PM

Chickenboy

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
Those are the kinds of things I'm pondering. I can go all in or I can take a more methodical approach. But I can't afford to be too methodical. Can I afford to be bold against Erik?

If you're willing to assume some risks, then yeah, you probably can. A good 'fruitful' Japanese defense successfully trades meaningless bases for Allied blood and time, falling back to even better more detailed defenses.

Of course, like Frederick the Great said, "He who defends everything defends nothing." The Japanese defense is constantly torn by the need to set up a genuine perimeter without gaping holes while trying to defend the widely dispersed perimeter effectively.

It has occurred to me that there's at least an outside possibility that you may be being set up for a rope-a-dope. What's that you say? Guam is underdefended according to SigInt? Don't throw me into the briar patch, Brer Bear!

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/29/2017 1:57:30 PM

Canoerebel

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Exactly.

I know I'm pitted against a tough customer. I haven't read everything he's ever written. I didn't follow his AARs closely. And I didn't re-read Joseph's AAR after taking on this match (except for a brief survey to see if Joseph had any real misgivings about the Tabituea invasion). So I know Erik is tough but I really don't have a good feel for his tactics.

So my thoughts run through all kinds of possibilities. Yesterday's SigInt: "60th Division is located at Foochow(86,60)." Is that a recent move in light of what Erik knows about my game with John III or is it just typical of his defense-in-depth notions? Is he the kind of player that will move 60th to Foochow, leave it there a month, and then move it to, say, Wenchow, hoping to develop another SigInt report?

Lots of unknowns.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/29/2017 2:25:24 PM

Drakanel

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I am not experienced and I'm reading both AARs but I think I'll write my opinion. I will state again that it's just an opinion on general strategy choices since I'm no expert :)

I would not under any condition land in a non-base hex. You risk up to 50% losses on what lands there, and frankly since you don't have stacking limits in the game I don't see it as a useful step for a major invasion. It's a gamble without a meaning I think.

Say you want to take a strongly defended base, obviously something that you can later use as a bridgehead for an operation. It will be a base with a medium or larger port and/or airfield. If you land, say, 6 divisions in a hex nearby and they get 50% casualties on landing, what use will they be for you? You would be much better off, I think, carrying double the troops and just landing in the base hex. After all there's no stacking limits and you do have superiority in troops and ships.

The point is, as you said, that since there's no stacking limits and you have superiority in troops, navy and carriers, Eric cannot truly defend a place if you bring enough strength there. You don't need any risky gamble such as landing in a non base hex. The most important thing for you, in my opinion, is that you choose a target that will serve you in the long run. To cripple/limit the japanese military or economy? Or maybe just even its shipping lanes? Or for strategic bombing? Once again I'm reading both AARs so I won't comment on that

I think you can afford to be bold, if the target is important enough. This is scenario 1, you can take any target you really really want to take, the real question is whether the target is worth it. But I think it should be the "I brought enough military power to crush any realistic resistance I will meet" kind of bold, not the "I'm going to gamble that I have enough strength to take the base" kind of bold. Because due to SIGINT you can never be 100% sure that Eric will not see you coming... You have all the advantages, except time (the game is not infinite). Speaking of major operations, you don't need gambles at this date in the game, just well prepared, high return operations.

If my noobish opinions will end up causing you grief, I already warned you that I am a noob.

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Post #: 113

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/29/2017 2:30:55 PM

crsutton

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

3/10/44

Burma: I don't expect to make real progress for months (time needed to bring in supply and build forward airfields). But there's a small chance that something worthwhile is developing on the SW quadrant.

What is your supply level at Ramree? Load it up and it will bleed into Burma.

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Post #: 114

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/29/2017 2:36:47 PM

Lowpe

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300,000 men...well, that is 10 IJA Divisions and this is a scenario 1 game so I think you are getting carried away a little bit.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/29/2017 2:44:21 PM

Canoerebel

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Nobody (most certainly me) has notions of landing real units on non-base hexes.

What I do have notions of doing is loading APDs with ranger-type troops and landing small contingents at non-base hexes with railroads, thus preventing Erik from railing in last minute reinforcements in strat mode.

As far as I know, a single squad on a rail hex will prevent rail transport. That is a critical tactic in a game in which invasion of non-base hexes are allowed.

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Post #: 116

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/29/2017 2:46:37 PM

Canoerebel

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quote:

ORIGINAL: crsutton

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

3/10/44

Burma: I don't expect to make real progress for months (time needed to bring in supply and build forward airfields). But there's a small chance that something worthwhile is developing on the SW quadrant.

What is your supply level at Ramree? Load it up and it will bleed into Burma.

We've just started the game, but attending to supply in Assam has been my second highest priority. Supply levels at Ramree and at Akyab are low. I don't have a huge number of transports in the Bay of Bengal. And supply levels in India proper aren't huge, though adequate into the medium term. Addressing all these issues and getting supply forward is Job 1 in the SEAC theater.

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Post #: 117

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/29/2017 2:58:59 PM

Drakanel

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Nobody (most certainly me) has notions of landing real units on non-base hexes.

What I do have notions of doing is loading APDs with ranger-type troops and landing small contingents at non-base hexes with railroads, thus preventing Erik from railing in last minute reinforcements in strat mode.

As far as I know, a single squad on a rail hex will prevent rail transport. That is a critical tactic in a game in which invasion of non-base hexes are allowed.

I stand corrected, I misread somehow that you were thinking of doing moderate landings in non-base hexes, and I thought it was to "starve out" a nearby base for prolonged time. Sorry for the misconception on my part.

If you just want to prevent strat-mode units from reinforcing a base then yes, it's surely viable. I would probably still prefer paras where applicable, less chances of enemy interference.

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Post #: 118

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/29/2017 3:29:57 PM

BBfanboy

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Exactly.

I know I'm pitted against a tough customer. I haven't read everything he's ever written. I didn't follow his AARs closely. And I didn't re-read Joseph's AAR after taking on this match (except for a brief survey to see if Joseph had any real misgivings about the Tabituea invasion). So I know Erik is tough but I really don't have a good feel for his tactics.

So my thoughts run through all kinds of possibilities. Yesterday's SigInt: "60th Division is located at Foochow(86,60)." Is that a recent move in light of what Erik knows about my game with John III or is it just typical of his defense-in-depth notions? Is he the kind of player that will move 60th to Foochow, leave it there a month, and then move it to, say, Wenchow, hoping to develop another SigInt report?

Lots of unknowns.

Your Big Tent operation against John III was able to continue pushing on because John had not attended to defence in depth. My impression of Obvert is that he is very attentive to details like that and will seldom have big, isolated bases waiting to hand over to you. Take-em if you need-em, but don't expect a major breakout to follow.

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Post #: 119

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/29/2017 3:32:59 PM

Canoerebel

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No, I don't expect holes in the defenses.

The differences between this and Big Tent will be that this is later, with stronger units, with many more units, and with vastly more supply and fuel. Where Big Tent depended mostly on surprise (holes), this will depend more on overwhelming strength.

It won't be easy but it's probably possible.

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Post #: 120