RE: Notes from a Small Island

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 6/1/2018 1:29:24 PM

Canoerebel

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Decisions were made and turn was sent before midnight last night, so I didn't have a chance to consider some of your posts made thereafter. But thanks for thoughts and suggestions.

I elected to proceed on my hunch. The Herd is scattering a bit, some proceeding at flank speed, and mostly undefended. Death Star is moving in close to Ketoi. Two good BB TFs will bombard. The ground troops will attack. This should give me an inkling of what I'm in for.

Hans, that's good information you provided. I've noticed before that bombarding did seem to impede ground troops from recovering fatigue, etc. I'll give it more thought in light of your thoughts.

Ketoi has a stacking limit of 60k. I have 95k present.

Reinforcements are available at Shikuka. I'm inclined to bring something in (at least a RCT) so that I can use all those effective LCI(G) ships. Would they fire if embedded with supply LSTs, or do I need to be unloading troops (I think they will, but you may know for certain).

(in reply to HansBolter)

Post #: 1291

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 6/1/2018 2:15:29 PM

HansBolter

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You aren't completely resting if you are bombarding as you suffer the enemies counter bombardment.

When you're heavily over stacked that counter bombardment will also likely lead to you suffering higher actual casualties than the enemy.

I've also noticed that heavily over stacked ports suffer brutale casualties to naval bombardments.

I mentioned that in my current game the AI stacked 19 LCUs on Iwo so I'm switching invasion prep to Chicha.

I've been making regular bombardment runs on Iwo from Agrihan and the LCU casualties are tremendous.

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Hans

(in reply to Canoerebel)

Post #: 1292

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 6/1/2018 4:07:10 PM

Lokasenna

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

There is no earthly way Erik would send a carrier force after my empties, right? with Death Star right there on the periphery, able to easily place itself between KB and The Herd, he'd be crazy. I'm nearly certain I can count on him not being crazy. But the possiblity that he would be willing to take a crazy gamble can't be entirely discounted.

Unless he thinks they're unprotected, maybe.

(in reply to Canoerebel)

Post #: 1293

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 6/1/2018 4:37:18 PM

Canoerebel

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He might send subs and DDs, but if that rascal evaluates the situation and reaches this conclusion: "Death Star is right there, able to interpose between Dan's merchantmen and my combat ships, but I think I'll take a chance and commit my capital ships"....well, I'm facing an opponent from a different solar system.

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Post #: 1294

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 6/1/2018 4:56:30 PM

BBfanboy

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

He might send subs and DDs, but if that rascal evaluates the situation and reaches this conclusion: "Death Star is right there, able to interpose between Dan's merchantmen and my combat ships, but I think I'll take a chance and commit my capital ships"....well, I'm facing an opponent from a different solar system.

Last I saw he is hurting plenty for SCTF ships. You have sunk a passel of DDs and Cruisers and badly hurt his BBs in several clashes. He is aggressive enough to go raiding but most of his raiders are in the yards. Can you show us an IJN sunk ships list of CLs and up size?

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Post #: 1295

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 6/1/2018 5:22:47 PM

Canoerebel

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I'll start with carriers. I don't know how "legit" the list is for ships reported sunk before I stepped in on March 1, 1944, but probably pretty accurate, given longevity on this list.

I know Unryu went down a few weeks ago. Katsuragi didn't go down but I think Soryu did. I'm nearly certain one carrier went down in addition to Unryu.

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Post #: 1296

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 6/1/2018 5:24:56 PM

Canoerebel

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I'm 99.8% sure that Yamashiro didn't go under.

I think Erik's BBs are in decent shape - they didn't suffer much damage in the intense fighting around Shikuka, except for Fuso, which was confirmed sunk.

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< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 6/1/2018 5:25:21 PM >

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Post #: 1297

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 6/1/2018 5:27:54 PM

Canoerebel

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The list of cruisers is pretty suspect.

Tone just took one TT, but she should be fine. Takao is afloat, probably moderately damaged in the Shikuka siege. In place of those two, perhaps other cruisers went down...or not.

I'm guesstimating Erik's lost 9 CAs with perhaps three in the yards.

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Post #: 1298

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 6/1/2018 5:30:14 PM

Canoerebel

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I think Erik lost at least 10 CLs at Shikuka in September and October, as this list shows. Several others took heavy damage.

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Post #: 1299

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 6/2/2018 1:40:39 AM

Canoerebel

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Youngest Son and I are heading to the Appalachian Trail early, early in the morning. We'll be up in the Old Dominion State for four days.

One of the pleasures of hiking is the hours and hours of time to think - letting my mind wander, thinking of the profound, routine, creative, or whatever. There's a Scripture verse that encourages "Be still and know that I am God." It seems hard to be really still today, given electronics and busy schedules, but on backpacking trips it's pretty much long hours of walking, making it easy to "be still" even when I'm sweating, aching and wishing I was back home.

Sometime Tuesday, we'll finish. Then we'll make the long drive south from Virginia through Tennessee and back into Georgia, deep into the night. Then my thoughts will turn to this game and the complex situation in NoPac, October 1944.

Y'all have a good weekend.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 6/2/2018 2:29:19 AM >

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 6/2/2018 12:49:56 PM

dave sindel

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Youngest Son and I are heading to the Appalachian Trail early, early in the morning. We'll be up in the Old Dominion State for four days.

One of the pleasures of hiking is the hours and hours of time to think - letting my mind wander, thinking of the profound, routine, creative, or whatever. There's a Scripture verse that encourages "Be still and know that I am God." It seems hard to be really still today, given electronics and busy schedules, but on backpacking trips it's pretty much long hours of walking, making it easy to "be still" even when I'm sweating, aching and wishing I was back home.

Sometime Tuesday, we'll finish. Then we'll make the long drive south from Virginia through Tennessee and back into Georgia, deep into the night. Then my thoughts will turn to this game and the complex situation in NoPac, October 1944.

Y'all have a good weekend.

Have fun and hope the weather is good for you and your son.

(in reply to Canoerebel)

Post #: 1301

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 6/6/2018 3:24:12 AM

Canoerebel

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We have returned from the lovely, cool Virginia Highlands after four days and 45 miles of backpacking. I mentioned last post that there's lots of "quiet time" while hiking to ponder the important things of life. I meant that. And I did that. But not as much as I thought. Yesterday, while hobbling along on hurting feet amidst a lovely fern forest atop Glad Mountain, under cloudless skies swept by a cool, dry wind, I realized most of my thoughts run along these lines: I'm tired. My feet hurt. This climb is too steep. This descent makes my feet hurt more. I'm hungry. I need to pee. These bugs are bothering me. What was that noise? Is that bear poo? I wonder how far I've fallen behind my son? Why am I doing this? I can't wait to get home.

I'm glad to be home. My feet hurt. My feet smell really bad.

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Post #: 1302

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 6/6/2018 4:06:48 AM

Capt. Harlock

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quote:

Is that bear poo?

Well, do bears . . . you know.

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Post #: 1303

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 6/6/2018 4:48:08 AM

adarbrauner

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

We have returned from the lovely, cool Virginia Highlands after four days and 45 miles of backpacking. I mentioned last post that there's lots of "quiet time" while hiking to ponder the important things of life. I meant that. And I did that. But not as much as I thought. Yesterday, while hobbling along on hurting feet amidst a lovely fern forest atop Glad Mountain, under cloudless skies swept by a cool, dry wind, I realized most of my thoughts run along these lines: I'm tired. My feet hurt. This climb is too steep. This descent makes my feet hurt more. I'm hungry. I need to pee. These bugs are bothering me. What was that noise? Is that bear poo? I wonder how far I've fallen behind my son? Why am I doing this? I can't wait to get home.

I'm glad to be home. My feet hurt. My feet smell really bad.

Don't know what to say.

There are many people, even beyond the 50s and the 60s and sometimes a little even more, who keep hiking, hard.

(in reply to Canoerebel)

Post #: 1304

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 6/6/2018 7:29:03 PM

Canoerebel

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I've spent the day doing three things:

1) catching up at work
2) figuring on what adar's telling me
3) reviewing the combat report (but not yet playing the Combat file).

I've learned two things from number 3: (a) Ketoi Jima will be a long, tough battle; not like Guadalcanal, I think, but like Iwo or Okinawa; and (b) enemy air got into my herd of empties; I think LBA from the Kuriles is the culprit, not carrier air; perhaps they struck at long range; I hope I didn't somehow issue orders steering them closer to those bases. Losses may be high from a points standpoint though I don't think it means anything from a prosecuting-the-war standpoint.

I hope to run the turn late this afternoon or tonight, after I finish up at work.

(in reply to adarbrauner)

Post #: 1305

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 6/6/2018 7:43:11 PM

tarkalak

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

We have returned from the lovely, cool Virginia Highlands after four days and 45 miles of backpacking. I mentioned last post that there's lots of "quiet time" while hiking to ponder the important things of life. I meant that. And I did that. But not as much as I thought. Yesterday, while hobbling along on hurting feet amidst a lovely fern forest atop Glad Mountain, under cloudless skies swept by a cool, dry wind, I realized most of my thoughts run along these lines: I'm tired. My feet hurt. This climb is too steep. This descent makes my feet hurt more. I'm hungry. I need to pee. These bugs are bothering me. What was that noise? Is that bear poo? I wonder how far I've fallen behind my son? Why am I doing this? I can't wait to get home.

I'm glad to be home. My feet hurt. My feet smell really bad.

Sounds like a great hike.

_____________________________

I do not know what is scarier: that I do understand nothing of this demonic script or that I am starting to see the demons that it evokes.

Me, studying for a PHD entry exam in Applied Mathematics.

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Post #: 1306

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 6/6/2018 9:54:55 PM

Canoerebel

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10/17/44

Ketoi: I'm just beginning the combat replay. Here's how things look early.

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Post #: 1307

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 6/6/2018 9:56:56 PM

Canoerebel

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10/17/44

Ketoi: Riff-raff round up.

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Post #: 1308

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 6/6/2018 10:02:24 PM

Canoerebel

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10/17/44

Ketoi: Strong bombardment TF hits Ketoi. Damage is modest but it is encouraging that combat squads were hit. Usually, you have to work through the support squads before scoring against the frontline guys.

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Post #: 1309

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 6/6/2018 10:05:34 PM

Canoerebel

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10/17/44

Ketoi: Often, in my experience, a second bombardment TF doesn't score well. This one does okay.

Both these bombardment TFs will replenish at Shikuka. Replenishing and bombarding in this environment - mines, subs, threats of air or surface attacks - will always be risky. Erik won't always strike, but he'll pick his moments.

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< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 6/6/2018 10:06:38 PM >

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Post #: 1310

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 6/6/2018 10:09:24 PM

Canoerebel

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10/17/44

Ketoi: Bloodsucker patrol.

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Post #: 1311

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 6/6/2018 10:17:48 PM

Canoerebel

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10/17/44

Ketoi: Search aircraft picking up the Herd of Empties out on the periphery. This augers ill for later.

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Post #: 1312

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 6/6/2018 10:24:22 PM

Canoerebel

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10/17/44

Burma: Allied bombing campaign has been going on for weeks or months, with occasional ground attacks. Forts have been whittled from six to one. I'm showing this because it's the first air strike that managed to score meaningful numbers.

NoPac is the heart of the war, so I've focused the AAR there. But the campaign in Burma has been long and hard-fought. I havne't been pushing. I like Erik having his troops so far forward. We're getting closer to the point where I'll be ready for things to happen, so Toungee is of interest.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 6/6/2018 10:30:46 PM

Canoerebel

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10/17/44

Ketoi: Erik did send KB after the empties. I sure didn't think he would. This won't be pretty.

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< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 6/6/2018 10:31:14 PM >

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 6/6/2018 10:33:26 PM

Canoerebel

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10/17/44

Ketoi: A partial list of one TF of empties taking damage.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 6/6/2018 10:34:43 PM

Canoerebel

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10/17/44

Ketoi: Emtpy tankers hit.

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Post #: 1316

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 6/6/2018 10:36:15 PM

Canoerebel

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10/17/44

Ketoi: Replenishment TF.

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Post #: 1317

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 6/6/2018 10:37:36 PM

Canoerebel

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10/17/44

Ketoi: Tankers x 2.

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Post #: 1318

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 6/6/2018 10:44:33 PM

Canoerebel

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10/17/44

Ketoi: Sobering ground attack results, though forts drop to 4.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 6/6/2018 10:51:05 PM

Canoerebel

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10/17/44

Ketoi: The list of Allied ships sunk is a long one. Some AOs, TKs and DEs also went down.

What next? I need to do some calculations. If Erik used flank speed, that will enter into the equation. I may have the Herd of Empties move north to rendezvous with Death Star. Or I may simply scatter the Herd and send them towards the safety of the Aleutians.