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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/9/2018 4:52:08 PM

HansBolter

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Capt. Harlock

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Saporro is a beast, with lots of fighters and lots of AA. Some RAF night bombers targeted the base last night, to their misfortunate.

I don't want to chance a bombardment, because Erik has his cruiser TF there and plenty of mines. I don't want to take long chances.

Fletchers.

More Fletchers.

No Gearings?

The Americans do start getting Sumner class DDs late in '44.

They don't have any armor like Fletchers, but have 6 5" guns in three dual turrets giving them more firepower and more deck space for AA guns giving them higher AA values than Fletchers.
Alas they are a little slower at 35 knots and can only make 10 hexes on a high speed run compared to 11 hexes for the Fletchers.

I've been switching them out with the Fletchers in my CV TFs to free up more Fletchers for surface combat/bombardment use.

< Message edited by HansBolter -- 8/9/2018 4:57:08 PM >

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/9/2018 5:18:04 PM

Canoerebel

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12/24/44

Arg! Movie watching interruptus. First, the Combat Summaries OFF created real flow problems. I started and re-started the turn about six times. I still haven't gotten that situation (I think it may be up to Erik to flip the switch back ON). It was lunchtime here, so I looked forward to a peaceful hour to enjoy the movie...but the phone started ringing...and two people dropped by, which is uncommon. So the watching of the movie was disjointed. I'll probably watch it again later.

So pardon a bit of messiness in the remaining graphics.

L+3: Fast transports loaded at Shikuka and unloaded reinforcements at both Wakkanai (part of a combat engineering unit) and part at the woods hex to the south (part of a Marine CD unit) in a single day. I want to measure the disablements of both, as many more reinforcments will be coming ashore in the near-term, including an infantry division tomorrow (as long as I conclude the disablement seem acceptable). I've decided to try to ram in as much as possible as soon as possible, while Erik is still (seemingly) relying on ground movement. I think there's a chance I can take Wakkanai in a week or so. I'll have a lot of disablements but a lot of firepower to counter the light troops he's bringing in by air.

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< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 8/9/2018 5:19:07 PM >

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/9/2018 5:24:35 PM

Canoerebel

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12/24/44

The air battles became especially confusing, since I couldn't stop the play to capture screenshots. So this is more summary than play-by-play.

L+3: Erik focused his air force in two ways: sweeping the woods hex south of Wakkanai, and posting LRCAP over Wakkanai (plus a few unescorted strikes against Allied shipping). Allied air focused on sweeps of Wakkanai and LRCAP over the woods hex. So his sweeps met my LRCAP and vice versa.

There was a lot of aerial fighter combat. Allied bombers got through to Wakkanai in fine shape. A few small and unescorted enemy strikes failed to score any hits on Allied shipping and took some losses.

Overall, my impressions (amidst being addled by the movie issue and constant visitors) is that the Allies won an air victory today. We'll know more when I see and post the Air Losses table later.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/9/2018 5:26:30 PM

Canoerebel

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Something very important is that Erik got a full view of Death Star CAP during his sweeps of the woods hex, where DS is posted today. So he'll make deductions and reach conclusions. Information is key. I'll have to take that into account in making future decisions about DS uses and deployments.

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Post #: 2104

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/9/2018 5:33:48 PM

Canoerebel

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12/23/44

L+3: Allied sweeps did a fine job of clearing out tough opposition at Wakkanai (at probably about a 1:1 ratio). The bombers came in and scored some meaningful hits against enemy infantry.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/9/2018 5:37:35 PM

RangerJoe

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quote:

Something very important is that Erik got a full view of Death Star CAP during his sweeps of the woods hex, where DS is posted today. So he'll make deductions and reach conclusions. Information is key. I'll have to take that into account in making future decisions about DS uses and deployments.

If you have to, pull a Masterkova and beat feet out of there.

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Post #: 2106

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/9/2018 5:38:32 PM

Canoerebel

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12/24/44

L+3: With DS at the coast (biege circle), Allied strike aircraft, all set to range 1 and ASW duties, reported dozens of hits against enemy SSX in the two hexes SW of Wakkanai. I bet there's considerable accumulated damage.

These SSX are placed here because, I think, Erik anticipates another effort to unload a small unit in the vacant hex (the previous mission being wiped out by Judys). But I won't try another, because Allied armor will arrive in that hex tomorrow (unless Erik bombs it during the turn, delaying the arrival by one day).

Having a unit in that hex won't accomplish much. But it will delay the enemy advance by at least one day, because the Japanese will have to attack to evict the unit.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/9/2018 5:41:51 PM

Canoerebel

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12/24/44

L+3: I'm watching what's going on out here, but I haven't seen anything worrisome yet. A don't think Erik will send carriers into the Gulf of Alaska, but I'm watching.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/9/2018 5:44:46 PM

Canoerebel

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12/24/44

L+3: I think the twin combat (IJA artillery, Allied armor + arty) went well today.

Unless I see something that gives me pause when I look over the turn file, Allied infantry will attack tomorrow. The six forts will be the biggest issue, I think.

The attack should be preceded by BB Missouri bombardment and more LBA attacks.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/9/2018 5:55:19 PM

Canoerebel

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12/24/44

Air Losses: Another bloody day in air combat. The Allies did prevail, but not as readily as I had expected. At least at first blush. Let's look under the engine:

1. Both sides are losing a lot of good fighters.
2. On my side, I am particularly worried about Hellcats.
3. On his side, I figure he is using his best now, and his losses are heavy. He's losing a hundred or two hundred aircraft per day. I am too, but my losses are a bit more spread out. I don't feel like I'm seeing a huge erosion yet in overall capabilities.
4. He lost a lot of the Ki-83s today, fighting Hellcats over Death Star. If the Hellcat manages to go 1:1 against his very best fighters, he's got to be hurting.
5. My air force is feeling pretty stretched. I am assuming that his is too. If I am wrong - if he hasn't even committed his reserves yet and is laughing at me all the while - I'm toast. But my feeling after months of tough fighting in Burma and NoPac is that he's fighting hard with his best. I hope so.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/9/2018 5:58:06 PM

Canoerebel

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After four days of this, his fighters must be getting fatigued. He'll have to rest a lot of them fairly soon, I think. I don't think my fighters are particularly fatigued. They've been rotating and usually fighting on the defensive. I think they can fight quite awhile.

But I'll probably have to begin swapping out some depleted carrier fighter squadrons for some of those on land. I can afford to do this a few times but not indefinitely. He'd better be hurting, because I will be if he isn't.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/9/2018 6:04:30 PM

Canoerebel

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12/24/44

Kaigun: For the first time in a long, long time, I heard the audio "Send Main Body" announcement today. Sure enough, Sapporo is filled up with enemy combat ships.

They're here to fight. Erik will either send them in "naked" to face whatever ships I have at Wakkanai.

Or possibly they'll be sent in to clear the hex of Allied shipping to permit him to land reinforcements. I think it's probably the former first, before trying the latter.

Big Allied reinforcements are set to come in at Wakkanai tomorrow. I'll probably hold off, or possibly land them at the vacant hex to the south (after first checking the Marine unit landed there today to measure disablements).

I'll definitely give a great deal of thought to my combat ships and to placing Death Star. I have some notions but they need careful evaluation.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/9/2018 6:06:18 PM

Canoerebel

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I assume that troops landing at the vacant hex south of Wakkani can only do so from the east side, where my guys are coming ashore.

I also assume (GULP) that Allied ships on the east side cannot be attacked by ships on the west side. That's almost certainly true, but you guys look at it and speak up if you think there's even the remotest chance something funky could happen.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/9/2018 6:10:47 PM

Canoerebel

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12/24/44

Minelaying Subs: In this graphic, you see that Haddock will lay mines near Sapporo. Another sub with Haddock will lay mines in the hex to the E. And yet another sub laid mines in the hex to the SW. If Haddock and companion sow their mines tomorrow, Sapporo will be hemmed in by mines. Of course, Erik will have sweepers working.

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< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 8/9/2018 6:11:19 PM >

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/9/2018 6:15:27 PM

Canoerebel

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12/24/44

L+3: This unit tested the amount of disablements incurred by a poorly prepped unit coming ashore at Wakkanai.

It's not a total scrub, though. This unit had 0% prep. Most of the other units I want to bring in have prep ranging from 35 to 45.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/9/2018 6:18:39 PM

Canoerebel

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12/24/44

L+3: Now here's an encouraging test result. This unit lands in the vacant hex, with 0% prep of course, and is in pristine condition.

Some of the units (including 112th Cav.) that landed there on L-Day had similar results. The others had modest disablements.

I see no reason not to prefer landing here rather than at Wakkanai. I think the main landings will commence tomorrow.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/9/2018 6:23:33 PM

Canoerebel

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12/24/44

Blocking Hex: US armored unit will arrive at the (formerly) vacant hex two hexes S of Wakkanai tomorrow, but IJ unit beat them.

I think Erik's contingent is no more than a mixed brigade, with alot more to come. I think it's likely my armor arriving tomorrow will force him to attack before he can advance.

I think, by the end of the day tomorrow, the Allies will have another division in the hex south of Wakkanai and possibly more than 500 AV, with more to come. It's going to be hard for Erik to clear the hex south of Wakkanai in time to save Wakkanai.

Sooner or later, he's going to realize he has to reinforce by sea (if he hasn't already).

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< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 8/9/2018 6:25:53 PM >

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/9/2018 6:36:35 PM

jwolf

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quote:

It's going to be hard for Erik to clear the hex south of Wakkanai in time to save Wakkanai.

But he doesn't have to. The Japanese control the hexside between Wakkanai and the hex to the SW. Your unit coming from the East won't change that.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/9/2018 6:42:33 PM

Canoerebel

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I'm not sure what you mean.

The Allies control Wakkanai's south hex side.

The Allies control the hex (and all sides) in the hex south of Wakkanai.

And the Allied armored unit about to leave that hex to enter two hexes south should (I think?) thereby control that hex side?

Here's the detail:

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< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 8/9/2018 6:44:14 PM >

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/9/2018 6:45:49 PM

Canoerebel

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quote:

ORIGINAL: T Rav
CR, Just wanted to say how much I like the AAR. Lurkers like to read. Thank you.

Thank you, T Rav. Writers appreciate readers. :)

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/9/2018 6:47:44 PM

Canoerebel

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quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

quote:

Something very important is that Erik got a full view of Death Star CAP during his sweeps of the woods hex, where DS is posted today. So he'll make deductions and reach conclusions. Information is key. I'll have to take that into account in making future decisions about DS uses and deployments.

If you have to, pull a Masterkova and beat feet out of there.

Yeah, danger lurks, but so do opportunties.

Do I bug out, to see what Erik might be up to first?

Or does Death Star remain in the vicinity, in order to cover in bound bombardment TFs and reinforcement TFs and to provide cover for the DD TFs patroling Wakkanai and (hypothetically) hindering Erik's ability to bring in reinforcements by sea (assuming he wishes to do so; if he doesn't yet, he will soon).

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/9/2018 6:51:27 PM

RangerJoe

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When he does get to your blocking hexes and you did a supply run/unit drop off, would that trigger an auto bombardment? Or would that only happen at the base? Doing one (or more

) at the base on the same day as your attack would trigger the auto bombardment which would only help your attack and burn up his supplies.

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

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�Illegitemus non carborundum est (�Don�t let the bastards grind you down�).�
― Julia Child

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/9/2018 7:06:20 PM

jwolf

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Yeah I missed a hex in the map, sorry. It is true the Japanese still have a clear route to get into the blocking hex, but presumably they won't have an easy time clearing that hex to open up the road into Wakkanai itself.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/9/2018 7:11:14 PM

Canoerebel

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quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe
When he does get to your blocking hexes and you did a supply run/unit drop off, would that trigger an auto bombardment? Or would that only happen at the base? Doing one (or more ) at the base on the same day as your attack would trigger the auto bombardment which would only help your attack and burn up his supplies.

Landing units with combat AV will trigger an auto bombardment (if the enemy has arty present).

Dropping only supply or non-combat units won't.

I'm landing units at Wakkanai every turn that I can to trigger those self-destructive IJ bombardments. I'm holding off on some of my TFs tomorrow, due to the proximity of enemy combat ships, but one small TF carrying some halftracks will chance it.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/9/2018 10:19:51 PM

BBfanboy

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

12/24/44

L+3: I'm watching what's going on out here, but I haven't seen anything worrisome yet. A don't think Erik will send carriers into the Gulf of Alaska, but I'm watching.

That CM is one of the larger ones, and JFBs often use her for FT duties because she has a cargo capacity as well as a large number of mines. I wonder if he was hovering, waiting for a chance to evacuate troops from the Eastern Kuriles.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/9/2018 10:28:38 PM

BBfanboy

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I assume that troops landing at the vacant hex south of Wakkani can only do so from the east side, where my guys are coming ashore.

I also assume (GULP) that Allied ships on the east side cannot be attacked by ships on the west side. That's almost certainly true, but you guys look at it and speak up if you think there's even the remotest chance something funky could happen.

Easy enough to check. Take one of your TFs in the hex SW of Wakkanai and give it a destination of that hex SE of there. If it can go directly eastward to that hex, then it is in the same hex and presumably could engage ships on the other side of the isthmus.

But I think the game's designers probably considered this and made sure ships have to go to the East side of the peninsula to get to the shoreline.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/9/2018 10:30:33 PM

BillBrown

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A thought from way out in the peanut gallery for consideration.

Most Japanese players draw a number of combat units from Manchucko. I wonder if you could bomb ground troops
that are in Manchucko hexes with no terrain bonus enough to trigger the Soviet activation? Your B-29s should do a
good job against troops that have no terrain bonus and probably no fighter cover.

As I said, just a thought for consideration.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/9/2018 10:35:07 PM

Canoerebel

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quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

Easy enough to check. Take one of your TFs in the hex SW of Wakkanai and give it a destination of that hex SE of there. If it can go directly eastward to that hex, then it is in the same hex and presumably could engage ships on the other side of the isthmus.

But I think the game's designers probably considered this and made sure ships have to go to the East side of the peninsula to get to the shoreline.

I did just that earlier today. It does not appear that ships have access to that hex from the west side. I'm operating on that finding.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/9/2018 10:38:06 PM

Canoerebel

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quote:

ORIGINAL: BillBrown

A thought from way out in the peanut gallery for consideration.

Most Japanese players draw a number of combat units from Manchucko. I wonder if you could bomb ground troops
that are in Manchucko hexes with no terrain bonus enough to trigger the Soviet activation? Your B-29s should do a
good job against troops that have no terrain bonus and probably no fighter cover.

As I said, just a thought for consideration.

Thanks for putting forth a clever idea, Bill. But I don't think it would have a prayer of working within any our lifetimes. From my experience in my game with John III, triggering Russian activation is an imprecise thing that may well not take place even if Japan falls considerably under the ratio/AV required. And even if the B-29s managed to disrupt enough troops to trigger such, it would take months and Erik would have plenty of time to adapt his air defenses.

I can wait for Russian activation in August. In the meantime, the best use of the B-29s will be strat bombing and, very occasionally, ground support or airfield suppression or port strikes.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/9/2018 10:50:48 PM

Canoerebel

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After the movie today, I had some early ideas as to how to deploy and employ the Allied forces tomorrow, but really didn't like the overall feel. So I went for a long run on a quiet mountain road in a moderate rain. Voila! Eventually the ideas coalesced into a plan I think is best. Here's some of the notions:

1. Erik is likely to flood Wakkanai with riff-raff (including xAKs) to deplete ammo of my patrolling combat fleet. He would then send in his combat vessels and fast transport/transport vessels to bring in reinforcements. I am allowing for this to happen as soon as tomorrow, though I think it will be later. I will take countermeasures, but I think Erik may need time to better understand Wakkanai's situation and to get his reinforcements aboard ship and in place.
2. Erik knows how many Hellcats I've lost. Ordinarily, I think he'd pounce on that by ordering an all-out air attack, probably tomorrow, so I am taking the best countermeasures I can think of (primarily, puliing strike aircraft off the carriers and replacing them with Navy and Marine fighter squadrons. But I think his fighter squadrons are probably fatigued. For instance, he probably lost most of his new Ki-83s today. He can order that all-out attack, but his forces would come from multiple airfields. Some might be socked in by weather. Some tired squadrons might not fly. His strikes could be fragmented and chewed alive by Death Star. So I think he's more likely to continue sweeping for a awhile yet.
3. My first notion was to pull Death Star back a bit but decided instead to leave it in place to cover the mass of reinforcements coming ashore in that very hex today. From this position, DS can efficient CAP the inbound reinforcements and also strike any enemy ships that spend all or part of the turn at Wakkanai. There is risk here, but I think this is the best time to get the reinforcements in. The longer I wait, the more time he has to put together countermeasures. He will have a very hard time taking that woods hex if the US Army divisions lands there in decent shape tomorrow.
4. The Japanese could inflict a decisive defeat on the Allies, but I think that is unlikely. A trade-off is more likely. It is more likely that the Japanese air force would be gutted in an all-out attack.

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