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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/14/2018 8:33:47 PM   
Canoerebel


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L+5




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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/14/2018 8:35:28 PM   
Canoerebel


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L+5: There were another six or eight fragmented raids against Wakkanai, of little or no effect, like this one.




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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/14/2018 8:36:02 PM   
Lokasenna


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

12/26/44

L+5: There's no accounting for pure dumb luck, sometimes.





You say dumb luck, I say absurd late-44 USN flak levels.

And possibly pilot quality.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/14/2018 8:40:14 PM   
Canoerebel


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L+5: A select few B-29 squadrons participate in ground strikes.




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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/14/2018 8:41:02 PM   
Canoerebel


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna
...
You say dumb luck, I say absurd late-44 USN flak levels.

And possibly pilot quality.


Keep reading (from the point that you quoted me), and you'll see why I referred to it as dumb luck.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/14/2018 8:42:26 PM   
Canoerebel


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L+5




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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/14/2018 8:43:34 PM   
Canoerebel


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L+5




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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/14/2018 8:44:29 PM   
Canoerebel


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L+5: It's finally afternoon.




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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/14/2018 8:44:45 PM   
mind_messing

 

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Status: offline 		Late war flak is murderous, especially on IJ dive bombers that go right in to the envelope of the close-range stuff.

Even without that, the abundance of 5" and 6" DP guns that the Allied get in abundance, it ain't as much fun to be in a IJ dive bomber as it was in '42.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/14/2018 8:45:29 PM   
Canoerebel


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L+5




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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/14/2018 8:46:24 PM   
Canoerebel


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L+5




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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/14/2018 8:46:57 PM   
Anachro


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quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

Late war flak is murderous, especially on IJ dive bombers that go right in to the envelope of the close-range stuff.

Even without that, the abundance of 5" and 6" DP guns that the Allied get in abundance, it ain't as much fun to be in a IJ dive bomber as it was in '42.


Yeah, I don't think it would've been fun at all.


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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/14/2018 8:47:28 PM   
Canoerebel


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L+5: Might end up with some Reserve Marianas Turkey Shoot-like numbers here. Oof.




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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/14/2018 8:56:43 PM   
Canoerebel


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L+5: Each side has lost seven DDs, by my count.




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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/14/2018 8:59:19 PM   
Canoerebel


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L+5: Japanese losses continue to mount. Japan took an early decided advantage in this contest. The fighting was hard and prolonged and losses to both sides noteworthy. In the end, the layers and depths of the Allies defenses eventually took control and wore down the attackers.




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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/14/2018 9:05:27 PM   
Canoerebel


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L+5: Turn beginning to wind down now. Only the land battles remain.




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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/14/2018 9:14:06 PM   
Canoerebel


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L+5: Japanese fail to dislodge loan Allied armor unit blocking advance to the key wooded hex. Erik may bomb and attack again tomorrow. I think the next attack will dislodge my armor, but it bought at least one more day.

Can I get the reinforcing infantry division to that wooded hex tomorrow (or is it possible it arrived today, despite the various messages that suggested it didn't)?




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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/14/2018 9:19:01 PM   
Canoerebel


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L+5: Decent Allied bombardment today. Enemy AVs remain suppressed after yesterday's attack.

Allied army likely to attack again tomorrow.

A reinforcing Allied division is inbound from the wooded hex. But I may have to halt it - keep it in the wooded hex - if the transports carrying that other division don't unload in time. I want at least one US Army division in the woods hex when Erik's army arrives in four to six days.

I think the timing will work out so that the Allies get at least two more attacks at Wakkanai before Erik can begin contesting the woods hex.

And his objectives may change after today's fighting. His air force remains very strong but his navy is hurting badly.




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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/14/2018 9:23:40 PM   
Canoerebel


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Intel Screen: Air losses heavy but not as one-sided as I figured. I feared that my lost strike aircraft totals might be through the roof.






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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/14/2018 9:30:26 PM   
Canoerebel


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Air Losses: Nearly all Allied strike aircraft losses were LBA. Death Star strike aircraft weren't involved, so Death Star should be just as dangerous as ever.

Japanese fighter losses look to be mainly second-tier fighters?

The Rex losses might represent three BBs - Ise (confirmed sunk) and Yamato + Hyuga (both likely).

Allied sea and air losses will be felt. It's hard to replace and sustain these kinds of numbers...and yet, I think the Allies can continue the fight. Japanese air losses are material and have been pretty high the past week but the air force remains extremely powerful. But I think the Japanese navy is really hurting. I thought it was really hurting before this battle but capable of delivering one strong punch. This was that punch.

Erik has remaining a number of undamaged CAs and BBs and whatever KB consists of at this point.

Defending the Home Island with a strong air force and a cobbled-together force of sea assets is challenging but possible.

But the dire state of the IJN, as I reckon it, means that the ability of the Allied navy to move is enhanced, and missions like bombardment should be more and more possible.






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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/14/2018 9:36:59 PM   
Canoerebel


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Ships Sunk: The sea battle was fairly even except for BBs...and the fact that the Allies could (mostly) afford what they lost, Japan (mostly) can't.






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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/14/2018 9:38:37 PM   
Canoerebel


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Status: offline 		I'll post a few more screens tonight, especially regarding the land campaign at and near Wakkanai.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/14/2018 9:52:32 PM   
Canoerebel


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L+5: Arleigh Burke is alive.

Richelieu isn't badly damaged, but I'll probably send her back to the West Coast with the next egressers, including BB Alabama and CA Boston.

In the past ten days, the Allies have lost one BB (Idaho) with two others suffering modest damage. The Japanese have lost at least one (Ise) and probably two more (Yamato and Hyuga). BB Wisconsin is inbound.




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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/14/2018 9:58:53 PM   
RangerJoe


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Status: offline 		A bloody day for both sides but I think that in the long run, you came out ahead. You can still perform offensive operations. Most of his cripples should end up in Sapporo, so maybe some night port bombing as well as laying a few extra mines?

For that wooded hex, especially if that US division can make it for the defense, maybe dropping the paratroopers? That way, if he shock attacks the armor, an infantry division, and an airborne division, he could be gutted and then subjected to the airborne shock attack. That probably would end his chances of reinforcing by land and his best chance to reinforce by sea is probably gone. Of course, with all of that AAA there and fighter CAP/LRCAP it might just be too risky.

Do you have any mines at Wakkanai? That could slow any IJN SSTs as well as any nuisance raids.

With so much of the IJN surface fleet gone, you might start planning for some Sapparo bombardments as well. That could put a few holes in his fighter force there.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/14/2018 10:06:18 PM   
Lokasenna


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna
...
You say dumb luck, I say absurd late-44 USN flak levels.

And possibly pilot quality.


Keep reading (from the point that you quoted me), and you'll see why I referred to it as dumb luck.



I did, but I didn't see why else it could be.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/14/2018 10:35:26 PM   
JohnDillworth


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Status: offline 		Well, you hold the field and the attack did not result with the fox in the hen-house. Your opponent may look at those air loses and assume the Death Stars offensive capabilities are diminished and follow up with the KB..........or not. You guys are throwing haymakers. Clearly not sustainable. Pity your drydocks are so far away. Once you send a ship back it may never return. Well, it's 1945. Go look at your new ship queue. Should have a whole bunch of DD's and other stuff coming on line.

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Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/14/2018 10:56:21 PM   
Canoerebel


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Status: offline 		I graded this as a significant Allied victory. Judging by body language, I think Erik did too (he plays things close to his vest).

My first time through the map confirms the general impression I formed during the turn. The Allies air force (even the LBA squadrons that suffered losses) is fine going forward. I suffered a few losses at sea but had enough "surplus" to cover that and perhaps one more similar engagement. And Death Star was basically untouched.

The Allies will continue doing what they were doing - working the Wakkanai campaign to its end - and perhaps undertake other missions.


To answer a few questions:
1. I won't sow mines at Wakkanai because that's an enemy base. I'd be as likely to hit the mines as he would be.
2. I probably won't commit combat ships or my air force against Sapporo until Wakkanai is done or nearly so. Sapporo is no doubt heavily mined and will have other defenses. I'd have to LRCAP my ships, which would further dilute my LRCAP that is currently stretched to cover the ground units at Wakkanai and the adjacent wooded hex plus various TFs.
3. As usual, there is a great deal going on beneath the hood, some of which you'll see near-term and others medium-term. Finishing off Wakkanai is key to triggering other operations.

Erik can continue to defend against ops using his air force and cobbled-together naval forces, so forays against Hokkaido proper or points south will still be very dangerous. But his outposts in the Kuriles are basically defenseless now (allowing for subs and mines and MTBs). I think he'll consider withdrawing as much of his garrisons as possible by air transport or sub, but first he has his air transports committed to Wakkanai. I have the same issue - I'd like to LRCAP his Kuriles bases but have higher needs for my fighters.

As 1944 draws to a close, the Allied have seemingly taken control in the Kuriles, are probably going to take Wakkanai in a week or so, and have reduced the Imperial Navy considerably. Looking into the beginning of 1945, I should be able to batter coastal bases by sea.

The key to everything remains to try to break the enemy fighter corps. If and when that's done, the Allies will be able to engage in strategic bombing efficiently.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/14/2018 11:49:51 PM   
BBfanboy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Anachro

Please, a mournful silence for the death of the Pride of the Japanese navy, or so we hope. A sad event in every PBEM. Fun fact: I had one sub luckily place 4+ torpedoes (might have been 6, not sure if possible in one attack event) in the Yamato in one PBEM. No duds. Reported sunk and then later reported incorrectly listed sunk. That thing is a beast.

It was before your time on the forum, but the inimitable Greyjoy sank Yamato with a single torpedo ... from a PT Boat! Magazine hit of course.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/15/2018 12:04:57 AM   
JohnDillworth


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quote:

I graded this as a significant Allied victory. Judging by body language, I think Erik did too (he plays things close to his vest).


I can't blame Erik for being down. That was a well coordinated strike with just about everything he had. You played it well but it could have gone more his way or at least more evenly. The multiple DD task force is a tactic you employ well and and you have had continued success with it. It is so hard to get through those multiple screens and still have some punch left

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/15/2018 12:06:19 AM   
JohnDillworth


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quote:

It was before your time on the forum, but the inimitable Greyjoy sank Yamato with a single torpedo ... from a PT Boat! Magazine hit of course.


The man is now a legend.....or a myth......some doubt he ever existed...but I remember the time when gods walked the earth.........

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Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly

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