RE: Notes from a Small Island

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/15/2018 12:31:27 AM

Canoerebel

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Remember the Titans. Remember Greyjoy.

(in reply to JohnDillworth)

Post #: 2311

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/15/2018 12:38:54 AM

Canoerebel

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quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth
�Pity your drydocks are so far away. Once you send a ship back it may never return. Well, it's 1945. Go look at your new ship queue. Should have a whole bunch of DD's and other stuff coming on line.

Compared to my game with John III, the shipyards aren't that far away. Shikuka to Prince Rupert (size 10) is 73 hexes; Seattle is 90 hexes. The threat of enemy action is largely restricted to the vicinity of the Kuriles, and that should continue to diminish. Once the ships are 20 hexes east of Paramushiro, they are usually in the clear.

In my game with John III, from the DEI campaign through the opening months of the Philippines campaign, my closest shipyard was Brisbane at 78 hexes and Sydney at 85. But those were straight line distances and there were many enemy-held airfields along my LOC; also enemy combat TFs and sometimes carriers. I didn't bother sending the biggest ships home, hoping I could take Manila, Hong Kong, etc., and open up repair facilities that way.

I think Richelieu and Alabama may need two months in yards; Boston perhaps more.

(in reply to JohnDillworth)

Post #: 2312

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/15/2018 12:42:32 AM

Canoerebel

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quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

quote:

I graded this as a significant Allied victory. Judging by body language, I think Erik did too (he plays things close to his vest).

I can't blame Erik for being down. That was a well coordinated strike with just about everything he had. You played it well but it could have gone more his way or at least more evenly. The multiple DD task force is a tactic you employ well and and you have had continued success with it. It is so hard to get through those multiple screens and still have some punch left

We both got lucky and unlucky. Had my carriers moved the one hex assigned, or had I set strike aircraft range to two, he wouldn've lost alot more ships.

But I got lucky that a majority of my ships at the wooded hex didn't get hit - I could've lost Missouri and Pasadena and plenty of assault shipping.

I'd like to know why the Kates from KB that hit Missouri with three bombs weren't carrying torpedoes. Very lucky there, I think. Dumb luck, even if Lokasenna doesn't see it that way.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 8/15/2018 12:43:00 AM >

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Post #: 2313

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/15/2018 1:25:18 AM

Lokasenna

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Could have been a range issue. Kates can't carry torpedoes out past 7 hexes.

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Post #: 2314

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/15/2018 1:30:01 AM

Canoerebel

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That's the answer. Range was 8.

(in reply to Lokasenna)

Post #: 2315

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/15/2018 1:52:58 AM

jwolf

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Many kudos to Erik for a thrilling game here. He made the decision -- rightly IMHO -- that this is the hill to die on, and he is throwing everything he's got at you. The only thing missing, I guess, are kamikazes which apparently are just about to get triggered?

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Post #: 2316

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/15/2018 2:32:37 AM

Canoerebel

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I don't think Wakkanai triggers kamikazes. I think anywhere else on Hokkaido, or any island closer to Tokyo than Uruppu, will do so.

I agree with you. Erik's best chances are the ones he has taken - to attack at Shikuka and to attack here. His attacks are always dense and intricately planned. The problem is that the Allies have so much in such proximity to his vitals. Things might've gone the other way, especially early on, but now the snowball seems to be gathering momentum and rolling downhill against Japan.

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Post #: 2317

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/15/2018 2:37:45 AM

JeffroK

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I don't think Wakkanai triggers kamikazes. I think anywhere else on Hokkaido, or any island closer to Tokyo than Uruppu, will do so.

But you landed south of Wakkanai, do non base hexes count??

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(in reply to Canoerebel)

Post #: 2318

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/15/2018 2:43:43 AM

Canoerebel

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There will be a temptation to see what happened as inevitable. That recent events are primarily because it is late in the game and the Allies have too much firepower.

I don't think so, any more than an Allied victory at Normandy was "inevitable." Eisenhower prepared a speech in case the Allies had to withdraw; one of the air commanders strongly recommended that they not use the airborne troops, lest they incur 80% casualties; the Allies were concerned that an Allied defeat might prod Russia into seeking a separate peace, etc. In hindsight, D-Day has that air of inevitability. IN foresight, it didn't.

The same thing here. Erik is gifted and crafty. HIs air force seems immensely strong and large. Until the October naval battle at Shikuka, his navy seemed overpowering, given it was fighting defensively in its own territory and had incurred few losses during the game. His army is untouched. His points lead big. He had months or years to craft his defenses in depth and to prepare forts. As far as I know, he is flush with supply.

Against that, the Allies had to penetrate, take, establish, hold, withstand, and eventually attack. Attacking is almost always more costly then defending (part of the reason why Allied losses in Western Europe were always higher than Wermacht losses). Taking over the game in March 1944, the tasks to perform seemed insurmountable, especially given Erik's abilities as a player.

There is much fighting left and Erik will sting many times. He still has a large points lead and it will be tough for me to reach 2x anytime in 1945. But no longer does it seem like the Allies cannot prevail. There's a chance now.

(in reply to Canoerebel)

Post #: 2319

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/15/2018 2:44:13 AM

Canoerebel

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quote:

ORIGINAL: JeffroK

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I don't think Wakkanai triggers kamikazes. I think anywhere else on Hokkaido, or any island closer to Tokyo than Uruppu, will do so.

But you landed south of Wakkanai, do non base hexes count??

I don't believe so, Jeff.

(in reply to JeffroK)

Post #: 2320

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/15/2018 5:14:15 AM

JeffroK

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I had a read of the manual, you are right.

Any HR against ignoring japanese bases and occupying the rest of the Home Islands

Plus, if I read correctly, he can only change 1 unit per turn.

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(in reply to Canoerebel)

Post #: 2321

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/15/2018 11:05:52 PM

Canoerebel

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12/27/44

L+6: The night begins with enemy subs laying mines, fresh Allied DDs trying to engage tuckered out enemy CAs, and other little items of note.

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< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 8/15/2018 11:53:23 PM >

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Post #: 2322

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/15/2018 11:10:40 PM

Canoerebel

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12/27/44

Strategic Bombing: All B-29-25s (the nighttime version) target the Jack factory at Maebashi. This is only the second raid of the war against that base, the first strat bombing raid in perhaps ten days, and the first max effort raid...but naturally Erik has his defenses in place.

The raid nets a single hit on the Jack factory. I probably will have lost a half-dozen or so of these bombers.

Erik will have the aircraft and engine factories protected, so I'll have to consider other targets.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/15/2018 11:17:30 PM

Canoerebel

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12/27/44

L+6: Confound it, Erik has found another stash of subs to deploy. Here he's targeting the hex Death Star is heading to (I hope). Kill these buggers, boys! Kill 'em!

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Post #: 2324

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/15/2018 11:24:16 PM

Canoerebel

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12/27/44

L+6: This bombardment TF is fully replenished (bear that in mind) and does a decent job in targeting enemy ground units, a prelude to the ground attack to take place at the end of the day.

P.S. Erik forgot to turn on Combat Messages again, so the screen shots will be haphazard during this turn.

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< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 8/15/2018 11:53:08 PM >

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/15/2018 11:27:52 PM

Canoerebel

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12/27/44

L+6: In contrast, the Missouri TF cleans up during its bombardment run. That's ironic, because these vessels had expended a lot of ammo yesterday in fighting off enemy air attacks - not main gun ammo, but 5" and smaller. So much ammo was gone that I debated sending the TF back to Shikuka to replenish without bombarding. I'm glad I didn't.

Dice rolls are apparently huge.

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Post #: 2326

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/15/2018 11:31:16 PM

Canoerebel

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12/27/44

L+6: More effective ASW work bookending an enemy SC hitting a mine near Sapporo.

I think all my US naval mines (sub, DM, CM) are low now. I have four DMs fully stocked and on the scene, in case there's an opportunity. But my minelaying activity is going to be limited for awhile.

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Post #: 2327

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/15/2018 11:38:46 PM

Canoerebel

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12/27/44

L+6: Nasty nest of enemy subs.

Cumberland TF just formed at Shikuka and reported to Death Star to bolster the combat TF presence. At least I know that DS is where it's supposed to be.

In the past four days, IJN subs have put two TTs each into BB Alabama and CA Cumberland. Both ships will require yard time at Seattle.

Overall, the sub war has gone pretty well...I think. Erik has lost a lot of subs beginning Sept. 1. If his stockpile is running low, the what's going on has been worth it. But if he still has large stores of subs....well, darn it, will the shelves ever become empty?

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Post #: 2328

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/15/2018 11:44:15 PM

Canoerebel

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12/27/44

L+6: The morning search phase generates lots of messages that Allied search aircraft have spotted and bombed IJN subs at and near Wakkanai.

There are also lots of messages of IJ search aircraft downed over Death Star.

At this point, it's pretty clear that Erik isn't committing his surface forces today.

And the lingering thought for me continues to be: What happened to that TF carrying 77th Div.?

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/15/2018 11:52:28 PM

Canoerebel

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12/27/44

L+6: Erik sends in a dozen or more sizeable sweeps by excellent fighters against CAP over the wooded hex. So his crack LBA fighters are tangling with Death Star CAP. It's Georges and Jacks and Franks and Ki-83s against Corsairs and Hellcats. The latter generally aren't up to the task.

The fighting is fierce and lasts a long time. I think Eric comes out ahead about 1.1:1 or perhaps 1.25:1. I'll post overall losses later today.

This makes consecutive days that DS fighters are heavily engaged by excellent enemy fighters. I've taken enough losses that I don't think I want to risk a third day. That's why I'm so bumfuzzled by the apparent absence of 77th Div. I need to find it and get it ashore, but I don't want to commit DS to another day of CAP.

Too, Erik is getting a better and better feel for my CAP and his capabilities of penetrating for a strike. A few strikes try this turn, including one fairly large one by escorted Jills that gets chewed up (and thus should help balance overall air losses on the day).

I'm going to be giving a lot of thought to what this means, when I open the turn file.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/16/2018 12:04:31 AM

Canoerebel

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12/27/44

L+6: Good to handle this raid....and, yet, some bombers get through to drop on CVLs. I can imagine what deductions Erik will draw from this. I don't want Death Star caught up in enemy sweeps tomorrow.

I think this raid comes from KB. That's important too, as that information will be helpful in coming days.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/16/2018 12:10:29 AM

Canoerebel

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12/27/44

L+6: Some Allied strike aircraft (mainly LBA) set to ranges that would allow them to take a crack at damaged enemy ships retiring to Sapporo. I knew Erik would employ LRCAP and figured I might take more heavy losses. But only a few strikes sortie and losses are manageable.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/16/2018 12:14:42 AM

Canoerebel

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12/27/44

L+6: Erik doesn't post CAP over Wakkanai today. Allied sweepers find no targets, but the escorted bombers come in and, undisturbed, hammer the enemy garrison. This is a good sign, given the pending ground assault.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/16/2018 12:34:48 AM

Canoerebel

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12/27/44

L+6: This is the sub that torpedoed CA Cumberland.

A patrol aircraft spotting BB Yamato during the PM search phase. That mighty ship took 7 torpedo hits yesterday, plus plenty of gunfire hits, albeit small caliber.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/16/2018 12:42:05 AM

Canoerebel

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12/27/44

L+6: Allied tank unit still blocking the hex south of the woods hex. It should fold tomorrow, which will allow Erik's army to advance to the wooded hex. It should be about five days before his army can attack, perhaps longer.

I will do whatever I have to do to hold the wooded hex, preventing Erik from reinforcing Wakkanai by land. He may pull out all stops to win. But yesterday's action went a long way towards limiting what he can do and what he's willing to do.

The odds favor the Allies, but I won't rest easy until Wakkanai falls...and until I know where 77th Division went today.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/16/2018 12:46:20 AM

Canoerebel

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12/27/44

Uruppu-Jima: Enemy resistance collapsing now.

The Uruppu campaign sent a shiver through the Japanese high command, I think. Erik did a superb job setting up his Kuriles defenses - big garrisons, lots of forts, good defensive terrain. But in just two months, Ketoi and Uruppu fell. The latter despite 3x terrain. It became clear that Allied bombardment TFs and 4EB are sufficient to batter even strongly entrenched defenses, at least in the absence of Japanese CAP.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/16/2018 12:56:30 AM

Canoerebel

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12/27/44

L+6: Allied attack comes off at 3:1 and drops forts to 4. The Japanese suffer higher losses, but the figures seem a bit distorted.

It's clear that Wakkanai is going to fall. How will Erik interpret that?

I'd really like to get a reinforcing division to Wakkanai to seal the deal. I'll evaluate my options as soon as I know where 77th Div. is and how Death Star fighter squadrons look.

P.S. I tried to get a screenie of final IJA unit AVs, but missed-clicked. The drops were pretty dramatic.

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Post #: 2337

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/16/2018 1:05:54 AM

Canoerebel

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12/27/44

L+6: 77th Division is aboard ships at Toyohara, unloading! The TF was correctly set (IE, Unload was properly set) and set to unload at the wooded hex, but for some reason retired...and is now mostly unloaded! Augh!

How to reinforce the wooded hex? 2nd Marine Division is freshly loaded at Toyohara aboard assault shipping. It can reach the beach tomorrow, though I have to think through things - do I keep DS on station? If I don't, there's a chance Erik will order an all-out strike, hoping to score vs. DS.

I will also order APDs forward to Toyohara. Tomorrow, they can begin loading 77th Div. to make the run.

I think I'll figure something out to get the troops to the wooded hex. Unfortunately, they won't have as much time to rest up and dig in before the enemy arrives. And whatever ships are lost will be as a result of this snafu.

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Post #: 2338

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/16/2018 1:08:10 AM

Canoerebel

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Well, good news: none of 77th Division came ashore. The transports show about 28% capacity loads, but that's because I ordered "load troops only" in order to speed up things, a few days ago at Shikuka. So there's that.

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Post #: 2339

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/16/2018 1:18:51 AM

Canoerebel

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12/27/44

L+6: Allied army at Wakkanai has 1700 AV post attack. The Japanese army is probably down to about 800. So Allies maintain that key 2:1 advantage in raw numbers.

25th Div. landed at the wooded hex three days ago and is 20 miles towards Wakkanai - probably three days out. A big combat engineer unit is the same.

If 77th Div. and/or 2nd Marine Div. comes ashore in the wooded hex in the next two days, then I'll allow 25th Div. to vacate the hex to reinforce the attack at Wakkanai. But if those divisions don't come ashore, 25th will remain in the hex to anchor the defenses against the likely coming storm.

Allied bombardment TFs and 4EB will continue their work in reducing Wakkanai's defenses. Next attack probably in two days (or possibly I'll wait for 25th Div. to arrive).