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RE: Notes from a Small Island

 
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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/5/2017 7:18:14 AM   
morejeffs

 

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Status: offline 		How did the night bombing followed by daytime sweeps go?

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Post #: 211
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/16/2017 12:38:55 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		4/25/44

All is quiet everywhere on the board. I think Erik is "bored" to death. This is purposeful. He's very engaged in his game with Lowpe. He knows I'm very engaged in my game with John III. We're flipping turns that involve not a single engagement of any kind anywhere on the map. He sees little things - Chinese units moving cross country in the westernmost jungle hexes on the Burma border. He knows I've pulled back from the SWPac frontier. He's sending subs to sniff out things. But by and large he appears to be bored to death.

Under the hood, there's not a thing boring about this game. There is a great deal of preparation going on. Everything is rounding into shape. SigInt whispers the things I had hoped and expected. In fact, with Eric (probably) distracted, I'd pull the trigger now.

The one thing keeping me from seriously considering that option is prep. I still need at least 30 days of additional prep. Maybe 45.

In the meantime, a few small things are underway. Just enough to tweak his interest a bit; the kind of thing like the Chinese creeping through the jungles.

...and I'll continue to monitor SigInt every day to see if the slumbering behemoth has stirring or suspicions.

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Post #: 212
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/16/2017 8:38:39 AM   
Drakanel

 

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Joined: 4/6/2015
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

4/25/44

All is quiet everywhere on the board. I think Erik is "bored" to death. This is purposeful. He's very engaged in his game with Lowpe. He knows I'm very engaged in my game with John III.



Just as long as he doesn't completely fall asleep and forgets to flip the turns

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Post #: 213
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/16/2017 12:40:43 PM   
Chickenboy


Posts: 24520
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
He knows I've pulled back from the SWPac frontier.


All this 'game within a game' is amusing. As Judge Judy will sometimes say: "Don't tell me what you think he knew. That's hearsay."


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Post #: 214
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/16/2017 1:17:48 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Judge Judy is wrong. That's not hearsay. That's speculation.

Obvert may be six steps ahead of me. My game within a game may be way wrong or ineffective. But it's all I have to talk about right now.

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Post #: 215
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/21/2017 8:56:17 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		4/30/44

Marshalls: Allis invade and take Mili after a brief firefight. This little action is a marked departure from recent weeks, which have seen day after day pass without a single confrontation anywhere on the map.

There will be several other fights to follow. I don't think Erik will contest this area: Catcher's Indifference, as I've said before. Even so, I don't want to lose any decent ships out here, so there's a bit of tension.

behind it all, I wonder what Erik is thinking.




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Post #: 216
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/21/2017 11:06:33 PM   
Chickenboy


Posts: 24520
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
Status: offline 		Where on New Guinea is Priority #1?

ETA: I'm a little baffled about the non-defense of the Marshalls. I'd at least have token resistance to a base so near his LOS as Roi-Namur for goodness' sake. Is Eniwetok garrisoned?

< Message edited by Chickenboy -- 10/21/2017 11:07:57 PM >

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Post #: 217
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/21/2017 11:29:03 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		I think Eniwetok is lightly garrisoned.

I'm surprised too at the Catcher's Indifference. I know that John III would've had at least modest air presence - search aircraft with the ability to bring in strike aircraft; plus at least a small DD TF. But Erik knows what he's doing, no doubt.

SigInt shows no holes "deep." Places that should be garrisoned are - Hokkaido, Coastal China, the Ryukus, Taiwan, Luzon, Borneo, Java, Sumatra, etc. So no freebies out there. But the good thing is that his defenses seem appropriately dispersed. He's doesn't show any signs of leaning one way or another, as though he smelled something coming.

So no freebies but possibly an opportunity to overwhelm at a point of attack.

I bet there will be a big carrier battle around that time.

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Post #: 218
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/22/2017 6:01:13 AM   
Lokasenna


Posts: 9297
Joined: 3/3/2012
From: Iowan in MD/DC
Status: offline 		I'm pretty sure Roi has a small fort unit that is static?

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Post #: 219
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/22/2017 1:49:34 PM   
Chickenboy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

I'm pretty sure Roi has a small fort unit that is static?


Yes. Without looking at the game OOB, I recall that too. Don't remember the level of / number of CD units and their fill out though.

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Post #: 220
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/22/2017 4:31:22 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		I don't remember if Roi gets a static CD unit in the game, but I know that several other islands in the Marshalls do. I think Wotje gets one. Apparently Mili does too, given what I just experienced. But repeated recon shows no enemy units at Roi. I'll monitor and report back, both with recon and, when the time comes, invasion results.

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Post #: 221
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/22/2017 4:33:38 PM   
BBfanboy


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From: Winnipeg, MB
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

I'm pretty sure Roi has a small fort unit that is static?


Yes. Without looking at the game OOB, I recall that too. Don't remember the level of / number of CD units and their fill out though.

As I recall, Kwaj, Roi-N, Wotje and Maloelap all have small forts with about 10 AV and 8-12 guns of 12 cm caliber (4.7"). Embed a couple of CAs or BBs and they will not be a problem. Even CLs will suppress them quite a bit.

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Post #: 222
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/22/2017 11:07:12 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		5/2/44

Roi-Namur: Here's the recon report - 9/10 detection - for Roi-Namur. It looks vacant, though FOW may enter into this just a bit.

P.S. This isn't a major thing. What's going on here is small potatoes in the scheme of things. But it's interesting, at least in comparison to the utter apparently languor everywhere else on the map. :)





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Post #: 223
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/23/2017 3:54:57 AM   
Lokasenna


Posts: 9297
Joined: 3/3/2012
From: Iowan in MD/DC
Status: offline 		If you have 9/10 and it says vacant, it's vacant. For now.

Maybe Kwaj is the only half of that atoll that has the static fort, then. Odd.

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Post #: 224
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/23/2017 6:08:38 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		5/2/44

Invasion Taongi: The Allies invade and take, thanks to Catcher's Indifference. All of this is meaningless - a chasing after the wind. Or is it?




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Post #: 225
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/23/2017 8:15:01 PM   
MakeeLearn


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quote:


"... does it really matter if whether one bayonet is sharp or not?"

Lee Marvin would say "Yes, if it's the one you're holding in your hand."




quote:

All of this is meaningless - a chasing after the wind. Or is it?


Saving up for the big one.

< Message edited by MakeeLearn -- 10/23/2017 10:12:13 PM >

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Post #: 226
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/23/2017 9:47:52 PM   
BBfanboy


Posts: 18046
Joined: 8/4/2010
From: Winnipeg, MB
Status: offline 		Obvert has probably read your other current AAR, so he will be aware that you can strike deep once you have everything in order. I doubt he will think that a plodding advance to the northwest from the Marshalls is the only possibility. Still, he cannot cover everything well against the Allied 1944 juggernaut.

Looking forward to the big reveal. If it devolves like Obvert's game against Lowpe it will be fascinating to watch!




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Post #: 227
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/4/2017 4:56:33 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		5/9/44

SqzMyLemon: While preparing for the future, I'm reminded time and time again to thank Joseph for the tremendous work he did. The greatest bequests I inherited from him: robust Allied army OOB (lots of big, strong divisions in good places); massive merchant shipping (the lift capacity is beyond anything I've ever dealt with); very strong combat ship OOB; pools flush with fighters and bombers and patrol aircraft; engineers scattered all about have built bases very big, providing wonderful infrastructure and maximum victory points); and taking some high value enemy bases including Port Moresby, Rabaul, Lunga and Luganville.

My chief job has been to correctly assess these attributes in measuring possibilities for advancing. It's been complicated, challenging and a lot of fun.

Thank you, Joseph.

Burma: The Chinese are filtering through the jungle to the Japanese frontier just inside the Chinese border. Erik is monitoring this carefully. Other than that it's a false war in Burma. Neither side is outwardly belligerent. Behind the curtain, I'm shuffling supply. I'm also shuffling the big infantry units into bases to upgrade. A lot of the units were still equipped with 1941 or 1942 squads and equipment. This is going pretty well.

The Pacific: Prep continues going well. I probably need about 25-30 days to get the core of the big infantry units assigned to Target Priority One to 100%.

Most of the carriers in the shipyards have completed repairs. The last needs eight more days. A big fleet CV arrives at Balboa tomorrow and some other fleet carriers are in transit to distant reporting stations.

My invasion of lightly held Malolap didn't go well. The shoreguns sank several ships - an xAK, and xAP, and an LCI, I think. The troops landed but the supply didn't come ashore well. The enemy counterattack was feeble, but the Allied shock attack was feeble-r. My guys are ashore and recuperating and should take the base eventually. Meanwhile, APDs carrying assault troops are inbound to vacant (I believe) Roi-Namur. Erik isn't actively defending out here. Catcher's indifference.

SigInt: I have a strong picture of the distribution of Eriks' infantry and tank divsions and HQ units. As you'd expect, there are no holes. But as I've said before, I think there's potential to overwhelm at a single point or tightly grouped points.

If the Allies handle any enemy opposition (carriers, combat ships, and LBA), I'm pretty confident the initial invasions will succeed. I know Erik is clever and creative beyond my own experience. I'm trying to think through things. Mainly, though, I have to think through my own prep: commander quality, TF makeup, and overwhelming force.

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Post #: 228
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/4/2017 6:18:33 PM   
Bullwinkle58


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

5/2/44

Invasion Taongi: The Allies invade and take, thanks to Catcher's Indifference. All of this is meaningless - a chasing after the wind. Or is it?



Opponents differ. Given your opponent here I would not ever assume he is not noticing something. I would put Obvert in the Top 5 Japan players active on the forum. Possibly Top 3.

< Message edited by Bullwinkle58 -- 11/4/2017 6:19:35 PM >

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Post #: 229
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/4/2017 6:21:49 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		That's why I called it Catcher's Indifference. He sees what I'm going but actively opposing little expeditions in the Marshalls isn't part of his plan.

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Post #: 230
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/4/2017 7:12:52 PM   
Chickenboy


Posts: 24520
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From: San Antonio, TX
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

That's why I called it Catcher's Indifference. He sees what I'm going but actively opposing little expeditions in the Marshalls isn't part of his plan.


Or...he could be biding his time waiting for an opportunity to actively oppose a not-so-little expedition as soon as you offer it up.

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Post #: 231
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/4/2017 7:19:21 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Oh, yeah. He's going to hit me with everything within reach when the time comes.

I'm assuming he has all carriers now. I'll outnumber him but not by much.

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Post #: 232
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/5/2017 7:50:06 AM   
Lokasenna


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From: Iowan in MD/DC
Status: offline 		OR....

He would have liked to oppose, but wasn't able to due to being too slow. That happens too.

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Post #: 233
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/16/2017 5:41:05 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		5/16/44

The game is moving along a bit slowly. I think Erik is pouring most of his time into his game with Jeff. That's understandable since that game has reached a level of sustained frenzy.

In this game, Erik suddenly has had a long string of high detection (5/5 and 5/6) on Pearl Harbor, where the American carriers are stationed. I assume he knows what's happening even though he's occupied with his other game.

The main Allied plan is developing. A fast transport TF will drop assault troops at Bikini (ungarrisoned) in a few days. And the US RCT that invaded Maloelap rather unspectacularly is recovering steadily and should be able to renew the assault soon.

To build upon all the action in the Marshalls, Death Star leaves port tonight with a large but bogus invasion fleet. The armada will move a steady five or six hexes a day. I'm hoping Erik will notice, conclude that Eniwetok or Marcus is the target, and elect to try for an eight-hex strike. At some point, Death Star will shed the mock invasion TFs and move forward much more rapidly in hopes of spoiling Erik's attack strategy. I'll have 50+ carriers. He'll have plenty of his own but not that much.

This has been a key part of the plan since Day 1, as noted way back then. The idea is to try for a favorable carrier clash while the ground troops continue prepping. All of this to culminate in a large and deep invasion sometime thereafter.

I'm continuing to monitor SigInt closely. There are some moves going on. Nothing of concern but a few of them are consistent with what he'd do if he caught wind of DS at Pearl Harbor.

I probably won't post again unless and until something major happens. I don't want a sudden heating up of the AAR to further arouse Erik's suspicions.

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Post #: 234
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/16/2017 8:12:12 PM   
Chickenboy


Posts: 24520
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From: San Antonio, TX
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
I don't want a sudden heating up of the AAR to further arouse Erik's suspicions.


Does that mean that you don't want us to post in the AAR for fear of arousing Erik's suspicions?

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Post #: 235
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/16/2017 9:48:51 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Nah. You guys post to your heart's content. It's just moi that shall lay low until something merits discussion.

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Post #: 236
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/16/2017 10:13:03 PM   
Chickenboy


Posts: 24520
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Nah. You guys post to your heart's content. It's just moi that shall lay low until something merits discussion.


OK.

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Post #: 237
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/17/2017 5:08:24 AM   
JeffroK


Posts: 6391
Joined: 1/26/2005
Status: offline 		I was hoping for some pics or poetry, we could double the hits overnight!!!!

or start a survey.

Who's relative can claimed the earliest arrive in what is now the USA??
I know of a 1716 arrival, and maybe as early as 1670.

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Post #: 238
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/17/2017 12:46:17 PM   
Chickenboy


Posts: 24520
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: JeffK

I was hoping for some pics or poetry, we could double the hits overnight!!!!

or start a survey.

Who's relative can claimed the earliest arrive in what is now the USA??
I know of a 1716 arrival, and maybe as early as 1670.


My mother was a direct descendant of one of the filles du roi or "King's Daughters" brought to Quebec from France between 1663 and 1673. Then again, so is about 70% of the current Quebecois population. I know-that only gets me to North America (and then the U.S. by emigration)-but it's a start.

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Post #: 239
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/17/2017 12:54:14 PM   
Chickenboy


Posts: 24520
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
Status: offline 		Courtesy of the Vogon Poetry Generator found here:

http://tonybaldwin.me/pages/vogon.php

See, see the nervous sky
Marvel at its big yellow depths.
Tell me, Warspite1 do you
Wonder why the camel ignores you?
Why its foobly stare
makes you feel toxic.
I can tell you, it is
Worried by your clindiforous facial growth
That looks like
A wet, clingy powder
What's more, it knows
Your micturate potting shed
Smells of aphid.
Everything under the big nervous sky
Asks why, why do I even bother?
You only charm sulfur.

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Post #: 240
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