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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/24/2018 9:18:36 PM

Canoerebel

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1/4/45

Toyohara: Erik's only sweep missions today are against Toyohara, an important Allied base with about 200 fighters available.

The results are pretty good - roughly 1.5:1 in favor of the Allies. I'll take that against the vaunted Ki-38.

Erik is flying sweeps at max altitude consistently with this plane. My guys are the same. I may bring in some P-51Ds to fly at 42k and drop the others to perhaps 20k, to see if that has any effect.

I had somewhat expected max Japanese sweeps and escorted bombing runs vs. Wakkanai and/or the woods hex. None materialize.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/24/2018 9:44:54 PM

Canoerebel

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1/4/45

Shimishura: One of two Allied air missions today is for all 2EB from Toyohara to hit this airfield, supported by a handful of 4EB squadrons from Shikuka. The damage done is impressive, especially suppyly hits. It appears that flak is unusually light here.

Suppressing this airfield, which Erik uses on occasion, is a worthwile objective. But the real purpose is to give him something to chew over: "Why Shimishura?"

Weather prevented the other Allied air mission (sweeps of Kushiro, to see if Erik reinforced after yesterday's battle).

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< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 8/24/2018 9:46:20 PM >

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/24/2018 9:49:10 PM

Canoerebel

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1/4/45

Ketoi: I figured this was coming. I have several cripples disbanded here, and Erik has been paying close attention to the island. Yesterday, I ordered the two cripples that could make decent speed (9 and 7 knots) to head east, to the Aleutians. Three heavily damaged ships remained, including DD Tjerk Hiddes. Fortunately, these Helens picked on a measely LST.

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< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 8/24/2018 9:51:57 PM >

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/24/2018 9:52:10 PM

BillBrown

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No image showing on the last post, then it shows up, forums again.

< Message edited by BillBrown -- 8/24/2018 9:53:19 PM >

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Post #: 2464

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/24/2018 9:55:30 PM

Canoerebel

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1/4/45

Wakkanai: All assault-units, except one armored, rested today. These results are good. Tomorrow, most of the infantry will attack.

No enemy attack in the woods hex today. That's very good. If Erik has designs (he may not), time is not his friend here.

How he handles this hex should reveal alot about his intentions - whether he intends to block or attack. I need that info. It will take a few more days to get it.

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< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 8/24/2018 9:59:35 PM >

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/24/2018 10:09:58 PM

Canoerebel

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1/4/45

NoPac: The damaged ships that made a break from Ketoi.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/24/2018 11:09:50 PM

BBfanboy

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Looking at that map a couple of things occurred to me:

1. If I was Eric right now, I would consider putting together an invasion of Uruppu Jima and Ketoi Jima to take away your LOC protection in that area. If he can sneak in and dump the troops with KB support and then vamoose, he might just pull it off (once you move troops to invade other islands).

2. From Toyohara to Sapporo is nine hexes by sea. Your fast BBs could probably pull off a bombardment and be back under cover before he could respond. I know there will be mines, SSX and PTs but you can have leading DD TFs deal with them. Might be worth some damage to chew up a bunch of his newest fighters.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/24/2018 11:18:49 PM

BillBrown

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And I have found that CL based Bombardment TFs can be very effective, they get a lot of shots.

< Message edited by BillBrown -- 8/24/2018 11:19:04 PM >

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/24/2018 11:21:45 PM

Canoerebel

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I am a paranoid player. You readers know that. I worry about all kinds of things, but I'm not worried about a counter-invasion of those islands. Both are strongly defended. Erik wouldn't have a prayer. Even when I remove some units for other invasions, there will be strong garrisons remaining. It would be futile with 2x terrain, fort building ongoing, the disruption that would be incurred, and DS probably never more than a couple of days away.

The bombardment routine is one, big, fat, ugly, risky routine at max range or near max range. A slight hiccup - somebody pauses to refuel, and encounter with an enemy sub, a mine, the wind is blowing out of the wrong direction, somebody spots a whale - and the TF gets hung up...within range of enemy subs, combat TFs, and well over a thousand aircraft. Then, as you note, there would be mines, etc. Odds are the mission would devolve into a snafu of epic proportions.

Getting Wakkanai built up, staffed by adequate base forces, and robustly supplied are the prerequisites to some kind of move on Sapporo. Probably the best move would be to park DS a hex or two from the base and see what Erik does. With DS and LBA attacking, the place wouldn't be safe for his aircraft and ships.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/25/2018 4:28:42 AM

HansBolter

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quote:

ORIGINAL: BillBrown

And I have found that CL based Bombardment TFs can be very effective, they get a lot of shots.

And if I were you I would be stocking Ketoi and Uruppu with some AKEs, fuel and some of those CL TFs to make daily runs on all the Kurile airbases and shut down one dimension of his threat to your LOC.

He shouldn't be able to operate from any of those bases. With two in your possession a group of CL/DD TFs would be making short range runs.
Presuming you place enough air on them to allow you to operate the ships from them, you would also be able to cover supply and fuel deliveries and your navy, using multiple light bombardment TFs aggressively could shut down the Kurile bases completely, without distracting your capital ships from their focus.

CL/DD and even pure DD TFs make great bombardment TFs in '45 and you get enough DDs by now to escort everything and have plenty for independent operations. Don't reserve bombardment for the big boys. Don't waste those five inch guns and hit every airfield, port and troop bivouac you can reach with them.

Don't forget that you can rearm your carrier and bombardment TFs at sea now that it's '45. Form up your AEs in a Replenishment TF and send them out with your AO TFs to serve your carriers.

< Message edited by HansBolter -- 8/25/2018 5:00:45 AM >

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/25/2018 5:06:27 AM

Canoerebel

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No you wouldn't. If you were me, you'd know you'd have to continuously protect any AKEs at Uruppu and Ketoi, employing heavy CAP. Those fighters are desperately needed to protect your big bases. You'd know that AKEs at the islands are unnecessary since bombardment TFs can easily reach the Kuriles from Shikuka or Toyohara. You wouldn't consider diluting your forces, especially your CAP, thus making it that much easier for Erik to overwhelm the defenses at any one point, thus exacerbating the strain on your fighter pools and fighter pilot reserves.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/25/2018 5:36:20 AM

Canoerebel

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quote:

ORIGINAL: HansBolter

Don't forget that you can rearm your carrier and bombardment TFs at sea now that it's '45. Form up your AEs in a Replenishment TF and send them out with your AO TFs to serve your carriers.

Thanks for the timely reminder, Hans. I had overlooked forming an AE TF until I read your post. It's formed now and on its way to join Death Star.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/25/2018 9:58:27 AM

JohnDillworth

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quote:

And I have found that CL based Bombardment TFs can be very effective, they get a lot of shots.

Knowing the risks I think this is one worth taking. I know your surface fleets has been whittled down a bit including DD's and BB's but you still have much much more than your opponent. I'm not sure what the secret sauce is for long range fool, proof night bombardments but other players have done them. Heck, John III was a master at this sort of stuff. Has to be some kind of commander rating and TF setting that would keep them on mission and not distracted. Don't know if them following a DD TF makes things better or worse. 700 air-frames sitting on a tarmac and no appreciable surface fleet to tangle with is an opportunity worth exploring

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Post #: 2473

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/25/2018 11:59:07 AM

HansBolter

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Well if you don't have enough fighters to cover at least one of those bases then the kind of daily run bombardments I recommended really aren't bpractical as your other bases are too far away, even though they are technically in range for long distance runs.

It's being able to set up the 3-5 hex runs that make viable an effort at daily runs that can keep the bases shut down.

Of course I also glossed over the complications of minefields and coastal guns. Minesweepers on short daily runs would also be necessary and ships would get beat up by coastal guns.

All in all, an effort as I described wouldn't be without cost, but I believe the benefit makes it worth all that effort.

The fighter cover to make it all possible be the first requesit.

< Message edited by HansBolter -- 8/25/2018 12:00:22 PM >

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/25/2018 1:02:52 PM

Canoerebel

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quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth
Heck, John III was a master at this sort of stuff....

John, your memory has failed you in this one instance. Go back to John's last AAR (in his game with me). Check out how many capital ships he lost in flubbed long-range bombardments. The tally included two CAs on a single mission against Medan and two BBs at Sorong, to name a few. Note how many times he swears he will never use a long-range bombardment mission again.

I'd already given this alot of thought, and I am privy to a great deal more information about the situation. There is no way at present to start bombarding Sapporo without a significant risk of losing far more in ship value than Erik will lose in plane value. Under the present circumstnaces, the only two possibilities would be to employ Death Star or to set up Wakkanai as a major base with all-out CAP. Both of those options basically require freezing action elsewhere. There are more important missions going on elsewhere.

The time will come to neutralize Sapporo. For now, I want to focus on other things, and I'd like for Erik to remain comfortable at Sapporo so that he dosn't spend alot of time giving thought to Sapporo (more so than he already has). So I'll largely ignore the place unti the time comes to give it full attention.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 8/25/2018 1:04:09 PM >

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/25/2018 3:26:37 PM

Lokasenna

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Once you have Wakkanai... you can begin bombarding Sapporo on the regular. Even if it's just with Fletchers. Or you could if you had at least 1 USN Base Force there.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/25/2018 3:42:06 PM

Canoerebel

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Yup. I took Wakkanai a couple of days ago. It'll take a few weeks to get things sorted there - repair damage, build the airfield up from level six, and get in the supplies and base forces to support appropriate defensive and offensive operations. Eventually, Wakkanai will be the key to unlocking Sapporo.

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Post #: 2477

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/25/2018 6:09:54 PM

Canoerebel

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1/5/45

NoPac: Weather shut down most Allied air operations today, and the navy wasn't engaged in combat. I don't know if Erik stood down his airforce or if weather affected it, too. It wasn't seen today.

The Allies resumed attacking at Wakkanai, with good effect.

Erik's stack in the woods hex didn't attack. He had only a slight chance of prevailing in this hex, and that little chance should be about gone now, since reinforcements are arriving daily and digging in.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/25/2018 6:49:30 PM

Lokasenna

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Ah, I couldn't tell because in the screenshots the base icon is always covered with a crosshair

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/25/2018 8:19:02 PM

JohnDillworth

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quote:

John, your memory has failed you in this one instance

Just this one instance?

My memory has all kind of holes in it and I'm sitting at the beach with my head in the sun so I'm doubly stupid
Yup, I'm sure your correct. Actually, I don't think you have impeded his resources, oil or production much so air frames is not the only problem. you have to thin out his pilot ranks too

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/25/2018 8:48:40 PM

Canoerebel

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I've been mowing the grass this afternoon, my head in the sun and my thoughts somewhere far away, generally in the past. Seems like you found a good way to spend a late summer day.

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Post #: 2481

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/25/2018 8:49:29 PM

Canoerebel

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1/5/45

NoPac: A wide-angle view.

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< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 8/25/2018 8:51:06 PM >

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/26/2018 4:45:34 PM

Canoerebel

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1/5/45

Achieving Victory: The long-term Allied plan is to seize high-value enemy Home Island bases, preceded by harvesting all available strategic bombing points from those bases.

The first major target for invasion hasn't been set yet, but Hokkaido is a logical choice and will serves as the example.

The Allies can score 8,150 points by capturing and building out each of the base. Far more points are available by strategic bombing of Hokkaido's bases.

Wakkanai, worth 1,250, has just fallen. Months ago, Allied bombers knocked out the few strategic targets there.

Kushiro's resources have been whittled down, and Sapporo was an early target that Erik now heavily defends. Before taking either, the industry must be wiped out. That, in turn, requires air superiority, which is why Wakkanai was an important step forward.

The focus of the strategic bombing campaign is and will be strictly direct - scoring victory points - rather than indirect - targetinga specific industry.

I'd also target Erik's airplane factories, but he has them heavily guarded. This leads me to believe that that target is the one he most fears. As the Allies advance in coming months, I hope to acheive the air superiority that will permit effective bombing of those factories.

Resources is the largest single industry and offers the most points and is somewhat dispersed, so that's received most of the attention thus far. I do not know (due to lack of experience from the Japanese side) whether targeting resources will impact Erik. There's one thing that makes me wonder.

Toyohara produces in excess of 500 resources. That's massive in comparison to most of the DEI resource producers and many of the China ones. A quick glance around the map this a.m. (not exhaustive) indicated the some of the Korean bases are significant producers.

The Allies took Toyohara in late June of '44, depriving Erik of that source for half a year now. In addition, Kushiro's resources have been impacted significantly via strategic bombing.

I'm going to target the Korean bases over the next few days, in part to see whether Erik responds vigorously. Evidence that he is concerned about resource production is what I'm looking for. That may help in fine-tuning the strategic bombing objectives.

Short term plan is to finish off Kushiro resources and begin working on Sapporo's. Those two bases plus Toyohara represent 2250 resources.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/26/2018 4:56:31 PM

BBfanboy

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When you took over the game you remarked at how few losses had been suffered on both sides - I presume that to include shipping.
With almost intact shipping he should have been able to haul resources from Sakhalin and Hokkaido right up to the time you invaded Shikuka.
So I am guessing he stockpiled 5 million resources or so, which will feed his industry for the rest of the war.

Still, there are a lot of reports to be had bombing Resource centres and he may react to that. Good luck with your strategy.

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Post #: 2484

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/26/2018 5:08:26 PM

Canoerebel

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Erik probably had through June of '44 to bring in oil and resources basically without opposition, so you may be right.

Allied 4EB hit Harbin and Chinmapo resources effectivley in July '44, shortly after taking Sikhalin. Erik hasn't bothered to repair those, so perhaps resources aren't an issue.

I'll target Keijo, Heijo, Mudken and Anshan a few times, and see how he reponds.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/26/2018 5:32:54 PM

BBfanboy

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Erik probably had through June of '44 to bring in oil and resources basically without opposition, so you may be right.

Allied 4EB hit Harbin and Chinmapo resources effectivley in July '44, shortly after taking Sikhalin. Erik hasn't bothered to repair those, so perhaps resources aren't an issue.

I'll target Keijo, Heijo, Mudken and Anshan a few times, and see how he reponds.

At this stage in the war he is unlikely to expend 1000 supply repairing anything! Perhaps one of his best fighter plants, but not much else.
It has to be costing him a lot of accumulated supply to build the aircraft you are destroying!.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/27/2018 2:43:12 AM

Lokasenna

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It's a waste of time to bomb Resource centers outside of Japan. They are only worthwhile to bomb for points, which only come from those in Japan.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/27/2018 4:14:47 AM

Lovejoy

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quote:

ORIGINAL: jwolf

quote:

ORIGINAL: HansBolter

Can't ARs repair engine damage? I always combine both ARs and ARDs at whatever port I allocate for forward repairs.

I have almost all of mine at Agrihan where my fleet is prepping for a leap to the PI and Okinawa.

I believe an AR will only repair up to 5 points of engine and/or float damage. Nothing but a shipyard will repair engine damage greater than that.

A level 7 port can repair up to 5 points of Engine or float damage. An AR combined with sufficiently sized ARD can repair damage greater than that. Here's a screenshot from one of my games. Adak is a level 7 port with an ARD (3,000 tone lift capacity) and an AR.

< Message edited by Lovejoy -- 8/27/2018 9:02:42 PM >

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/27/2018 8:03:20 AM

adarbrauner

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lovejoy

quote:

ORIGINAL: jwolf

quote:

ORIGINAL: HansBolter

Can't ARs repair engine damage? I always combine both ARs and ARDs at whatever port I allocate for forward repairs.

I have almost all of mine at Agrihan where my fleet is prepping for a leap to the PI and Okinawa.

I believe an AR will only repair up to 5 points of engine and/or float damage. Nothing but a shipyard will repair engine damage greater than that.

A level 7 port can repair up to 5 points of Engine or float damage. An AR combined with sufficiently sized ARD can repair damage greater than that. As proof, here's a screenshot from one of my games. Adak is a level 7 port with an ARD (3,000 tone lift capacity) and an AR.

Float damage shall be repaired by the ARD even without AR ship, but not major engine damage;

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/27/2018 2:25:02 PM

Canoerebel

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1/6/45

NoPac: The only major action today was a tough aerial battle over Kushiro that favored the Japanese, in modest numbers. Air Loss screen to follow in another post.

Events on the map have come together in such a way as to trigger an all-out Allied air and sea attack on Sapporo tomorrow. I think Erik is expecting the Allies to land reinforcements at Wakkanai or the adjacent woods hex. I don't think he anticipates Death Star suddenly springing into action to close on Sapporo tomorrow. But there are such huge forces, both sides, in proximity that things could quickly go crazy.