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Hurricane Harvey - 8/26/2017 11:01:43 PM

Canoerebel

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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
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It looks like coastal Texas and the hill country and vicinity are getting whacked by Hurricane Harvey. The rainfall in particular may take on biblical proportions. Best wishes to forumites and folks in Texas.

Looking at the radar a moment ago it seemed like the core of the rain was inland a bit further than expected. That means heavy rain for the hill country which sounds like huge flooding.

And the storm is going to loiter in the area for day after day. Misery and despair kinda stuff.

Good luck, Texas. We're pulling for you even while fearful of what's forecast.

Post #: 1

RE: Hurricane Harvey - 8/26/2017 11:10:26 PM

btd64

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Plus ONE. Hang in there....GP

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Post #: 2

RE: Hurricane Harvey - 8/27/2017 12:25:51 AM

Mikawa

Posts: 63
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From: From Bridge Chokai
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In San Antonio and it's not too bad. Houston is getting feet of rain. Feel very sorry for folks on the coast. Sad.

There is still power so there is War in the Pacific. What else would you do?

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Post #: 3

RE: Hurricane Harvey - 8/27/2017 12:51:05 AM

geofflambert

Posts: 14863
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From: St. Louis
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Mikawa

In San Antonio and it's not too bad. Houston is getting feet of rain. Feel very sorry for folks on the coast. Sad.

There is still power so there is War in the Pacific. What else would you do?

Paddle a canoe to Timbuktu?

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Post #: 4

RE: Hurricane Harvey - 8/27/2017 1:57:55 AM

Chickenboy

Posts: 24520
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From: San Antonio, TX
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Northern ring of San Antonio here. Steady and light to moderate rain here. The counter-clockwise spin of the hurricane is depositing most of the rain on Houston and the south central coast. Even though we're a lot closer to the breaking up hurricane / tropical storm than Houston and Galveston, they're going to get it in the neck moreso than we are.

I feel for those poor SOBs in Port Aransas and Rockport. They really got hammered.

Port Aransas will be heavily affected by the storm surge, winds and waves. We vacationed there in June and really enjoyed it. I suspect there will be catastrophic damage to much of the town due to the low-lying topography.

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Post #: 5

RE: Hurricane Harvey - 8/27/2017 3:47:17 AM

Mikawa

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From: From Bridge Chokai
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Hi Chickenboy, I'm on the north side San Antonio and it's still blowing fairly hard. This thing will never leave!

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Post #: 6

RE: Hurricane Harvey - 8/27/2017 4:15:19 AM

InfiniteMonkey

Posts: 355
Joined: 9/16/2016
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South Austin here. I have refugees from Houston at my house and a long time friend probably lost her house in Rockport. My brother in law and his wife flew back in today. We might have them at our house too, since they are out in Bastrop and they are getting hit hard by rain (expected accumulation in the 40" range over next couple days). It is likely we will get off lightly, but a ton of low water crossings are closed right now: https://www.atxfloods.com/

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Post #: 7

RE: Hurricane Harvey - 8/27/2017 8:23:50 AM

wdolson

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From: Near Portland, OR
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A friend was here last week who lives in Sugar Land near the Brazos River. He stayed here a couple of nights and then was off to do some other things in the region, but cut it short to try and get home. His wife is home alone with the dogs. He said a couple of tornadoes have touched down in the neighborhood, one very close to his house. He's in Denver tonight hoping his flight home won't get canceled tomorrow morning. Once he gets back he's going to have to get from Houston Hobby home, it's iffy if his wife is going to feel brave enough to venture out.

He hates Houston. He's only there because he was a petroleum Geophysicist and his company kept downsizing and closing whatever office he was in to a point where he either had to live in Houston or the Middle East. He chose Houston as the slightly better choice. He's retired now and his kids are out and both are gainfully employed in New York. He'd love to leave, but his wife refused. Maybe she'll change her mind after going through Harvey. He's not sure how he'd handle the cloudiness here in the winter, but he otherwise loves Portland's climate and culture.

Hope he still has a house to go back to.

Bill

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Post #: 8

RE: Hurricane Harvey - 8/27/2017 5:23:37 PM

Bullwinkle58

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Report I read this morning (fast changing situation) said Hobby was closed. Two feet of water on or flowing over runways. Said loss of Hobby was hurting Life Flights and general helo SAR efforts.

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Post #: 9

RE: Hurricane Harvey - 8/27/2017 5:28:01 PM

Aurorus

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Best wishes for Texas from South America.

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Post #: 10

RE: Hurricane Harvey - 8/27/2017 11:30:05 PM

LST Express

Posts: 571
Joined: 3/1/2005
From: Texas
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I'm in central Texas and have family staying with us from the Houston area. I think their place will be ok but with small kids they didn't want to chance it.

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Post #: 11

RE: Hurricane Harvey - 8/28/2017 2:11:20 AM

Shark7

Posts: 7937
Joined: 7/24/2007
From: The Big Nowhere
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quote:

ORIGINAL: LST Express

I'm in central Texas and have family staying with us from the Houston area. I think their place will be ok but with small kids they didn't want to chance it.

That is definitely the best policy.

I'm in the North Central part of Texas and we've not had a drop of rain here. In fact it was a bright, sunny hot day. In other words, typical August day for me.

I've already been through two 100 year floods in my lifetime (which is not 100 years I assure you) and don't care to experience it again. I was having to do rescue the last time it happened. It is hard, tiring work trying to get people to safety, you have to keep going back until the job is done or until it is just too unsafe to keep trying. And there are never enough people to do the job. Keep all those folks doing the rescue work in your thoughts.

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Post #: 12

RE: Hurricane Harvey - 8/28/2017 2:23:53 AM

InfiniteMonkey

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After this ends, we should get together a WitP:AE Texas convention. :P

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Post #: 13

RE: Hurricane Harvey - 8/28/2017 6:08:36 AM

Orm

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From: Sweden
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Looks like the tough weather has continued. As they warned.

The people suffering from Harvey will be in my thoughts and prayers.

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Post #: 14

RE: Hurricane Harvey - 8/28/2017 8:30:53 AM

wdolson

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From: Near Portland, OR
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If Harvey goes back out to the Gulf as is now predicted, it could come back on land revitalized. Houston could end up as devastated as New Orleans from Katrina. My SO was saying today that New Orleans has a core of people who deeply love the city and wanted to restore it, but few feel that way about Houston. I'm sure there are people who love Houston, but there isn't the passion about the place New Orlanders hold for their city.

Houston exists for commerce, if the place is too badly damaged to do commerce, the merchants will pick up and go someplace where they can do business.

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Post #: 15

RE: Hurricane Harvey - 8/28/2017 9:44:04 AM

Apollo11

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Hi all,

Stay safe guys - fingers crossed!

Leo "Apollo11"

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Post #: 16

RE: Hurricane Harvey - 8/28/2017 1:54:21 PM

Chickenboy

Posts: 24520
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From: San Antonio, TX
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quote:

ORIGINAL: wdolson

If Harvey goes back out to the Gulf as is now predicted, it could come back on land revitalized. Houston could end up as devastated as New Orleans from Katrina. My SO was saying today that New Orleans has a core of people who deeply love the city and wanted to restore it, but few feel that way about Houston. I'm sure there are people who love Houston, but there isn't the passion about the place New Orlanders hold for their city.

Houston exists for commerce, if the place is too badly damaged to do commerce, the merchants will pick up and go someplace where they can do business.

Aye. But, again where they differ is the presence of concentrated world-class industries and transportation centers in Houston. It will be-up to a point-worthwhile for them to repair their home base of operations in North America and support the community's efforts to do the same.

With all due respect to New Orleanders, their city (particularly the 9th and 5th wards) is still a complete mess economically, structurally, infrastructurally, etc. The passionate core is insufficient to revitalize a major metropolitan area. Houston's oft-besmirched industrial might has some significant advantages that New Orleans never has had and never will.

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Post #: 17

RE: Hurricane Harvey - 8/28/2017 1:58:15 PM

BBfanboy

Posts: 18046
Joined: 8/4/2010
From: Winnipeg, MB
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

quote:

ORIGINAL: wdolson

If Harvey goes back out to the Gulf as is now predicted, it could come back on land revitalized. Houston could end up as devastated as New Orleans from Katrina. My SO was saying today that New Orleans has a core of people who deeply love the city and wanted to restore it, but few feel that way about Houston. I'm sure there are people who love Houston, but there isn't the passion about the place New Orlanders hold for their city.

Houston exists for commerce, if the place is too badly damaged to do commerce, the merchants will pick up and go someplace where they can do business.

Aye. But, again where they differ is the presence of concentrated world-class industries and transportation centers in Houston. It will be-up to a point-worthwhile for them to repair their home base of operations in North America and support the community's efforts to do the same.

With all due respect to New Orleanders, their city (particularly the 9th and 5th wards) is still a complete mess economically, structurally, infrastructurally, etc. The passionate core is insufficient to revitalize a major metropolitan area. Houston's oft-besmirched industrial might has some significant advantages that New Orleans never has had and never will.

We are feeling the effects all the way up in Canada as the refineries in the Houston area shut down 30% of US capacity, increasing demand for Canadian supplies. I can't imagine the oil companies moving those refineries but they might be able to build some protection for them in future.

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Post #: 18

RE: Hurricane Harvey - 8/28/2017 2:02:39 PM

Chickenboy

Posts: 24520
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
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quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

quote:

ORIGINAL: wdolson

If Harvey goes back out to the Gulf as is now predicted, it could come back on land revitalized. Houston could end up as devastated as New Orleans from Katrina. My SO was saying today that New Orleans has a core of people who deeply love the city and wanted to restore it, but few feel that way about Houston. I'm sure there are people who love Houston, but there isn't the passion about the place New Orlanders hold for their city.

Houston exists for commerce, if the place is too badly damaged to do commerce, the merchants will pick up and go someplace where they can do business.

Aye. But, again where they differ is the presence of concentrated world-class industries and transportation centers in Houston. It will be-up to a point-worthwhile for them to repair their home base of operations in North America and support the community's efforts to do the same.

With all due respect to New Orleanders, their city (particularly the 9th and 5th wards) is still a complete mess economically, structurally, infrastructurally, etc. The passionate core is insufficient to revitalize a major metropolitan area. Houston's oft-besmirched industrial might has some significant advantages that New Orleans never has had and never will.

We are feeling the effects all the way up in Canada as the refineries in the Houston area shut down 30% of US capacity, increasing demand for Canadian supplies. I can't imagine the oil companies moving those refineries but they might be able to build some protection for them in future.

By protection do you mean redundancies (i.e., more refineries) or did you mean levees, dikes, earthworks and industrial pumps to evacuate any spillover? The former has been unpalatable for most states in the union. Only one new refinery in the lower 48 in the last 25+ years-crazy NIMBY-ism. The latter would make a lot of sense.

I'm not sure that the refineries have been damaged at this point. Dunno. They were shut down pre-emptively to avoid any accidents and should be able to reopen after (when? if?) the waters recede. The 30% offline will be temporary.

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Post #: 19

RE: Hurricane Harvey - 8/28/2017 3:22:03 PM

witpqs

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From: Argleton
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Here is what they think at the moment.

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Post #: 20

RE: Hurricane Harvey - 8/28/2017 3:30:39 PM

Chickenboy

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From: San Antonio, TX
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That storm track is some crazy s***. Never seen one or heard of one linger for over a week in one area before.

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Post #: 21

RE: Hurricane Harvey - 8/28/2017 3:40:52 PM

btd64

Posts: 9973
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From: Mass. USA. now in Lancaster, OHIO
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

That storm track is some crazy s***. Never seen one or heard of one linger for over a week in one area before.

That makes two of us....GP

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Post #: 22

RE: Hurricane Harvey - 8/28/2017 3:44:49 PM

witpqs

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quote:

ORIGINAL: General Patton

quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

That storm track is some crazy s***. Never seen one or heard of one linger for over a week in one area before.

That makes two of us....GP

I've heard of it, it's just unusual. The basic explanation given in the past is that there are usually other weather systems -
high pressure and low pressure systems - that wind up steering a cyclone along a front line. Some times the steering forces are not so strong, and much less often are practically absent.

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RE: Hurricane Harvey - 8/28/2017 4:01:48 PM

Chickenboy

Posts: 24520
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From: San Antonio, TX
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quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs

quote:

ORIGINAL: General Patton

quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

That storm track is some crazy s***. Never seen one or heard of one linger for over a week in one area before.

That makes two of us....GP

I've heard of it, it's just unusual. The basic explanation given in the past is that there are usually other weather systems -
high pressure and low pressure systems - that wind up steering a cyclone along a front line. Some times the steering forces are not so strong, and much less often are practically absent.

Yes. That's the explanation I've heard any number of times from the meteorologists on the various news / weather channels too.

Where have you heard of another CAT 4 hurricane lingering, back tracking and re-engaging the same coastline a week later?

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Post #: 24

RE: Hurricane Harvey - 8/28/2017 4:14:45 PM

BBfanboy

Posts: 18046
Joined: 8/4/2010
From: Winnipeg, MB
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

quote:

ORIGINAL: wdolson

If Harvey goes back out to the Gulf as is now predicted, it could come back on land revitalized. Houston could end up as devastated as New Orleans from Katrina. My SO was saying today that New Orleans has a core of people who deeply love the city and wanted to restore it, but few feel that way about Houston. I'm sure there are people who love Houston, but there isn't the passion about the place New Orlanders hold for their city.

Houston exists for commerce, if the place is too badly damaged to do commerce, the merchants will pick up and go someplace where they can do business.

Aye. But, again where they differ is the presence of concentrated world-class industries and transportation centers in Houston. It will be-up to a point-worthwhile for them to repair their home base of operations in North America and support the community's efforts to do the same.

With all due respect to New Orleanders, their city (particularly the 9th and 5th wards) is still a complete mess economically, structurally, infrastructurally, etc. The passionate core is insufficient to revitalize a major metropolitan area. Houston's oft-besmirched industrial might has some significant advantages that New Orleans never has had and never will.

We are feeling the effects all the way up in Canada as the refineries in the Houston area shut down 30% of US capacity, increasing demand for Canadian supplies. I can't imagine the oil companies moving those refineries but they might be able to build some protection for them in future.

By protection do you mean redundancies (i.e., more refineries) or did you mean levees, dikes, earthworks and industrial pumps to evacuate any spillover? The former has been unpalatable for most states in the union. Only one new refinery in the lower 48 in the last 25+ years-crazy NIMBY-ism. The latter would make a lot of sense.

I'm not sure that the refineries have been damaged at this point. Dunno. They were shut down pre-emptively to avoid any accidents and should be able to reopen after (when? if?) the waters recede. The 30% offline will be temporary.

Was thinking of the levees/dikes/pumps/closable Watergates. But I don't know how they could handle the fuel leaving the refinery - submerged roads preclude trucks and pipelines might be too risky given flash floods and landslides triggered by rains. UPS drones, anyone?

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Post #: 25

RE: Hurricane Harvey - 8/28/2017 4:47:08 PM

dox44

Posts: 668
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From: the woodlands, texas
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the water is 4 inches from coming in my house. we have no way out as streets are flooded. we are told the river will crest in a couple of hours. our yards and fields are lakes. surreal experience.

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Post #: 26

RE: Hurricane Harvey - 8/28/2017 5:05:58 PM

Chickenboy

Posts: 24520
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From: San Antonio, TX
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quote:

ORIGINAL: casebier

the water is 4 inches from coming in my house. we have no way out as streets are flooded. we are told the river will crest in a couple of hours. our yards and fields are lakes. surreal experience.

Be safe man.

I hope you get a few hours respite...

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Post #: 27

RE: Hurricane Harvey - 8/28/2017 5:33:33 PM

witpqs

Posts: 26087
Joined: 10/4/2004
From: Argleton
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs

quote:

ORIGINAL: General Patton

quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

That storm track is some crazy s***. Never seen one or heard of one linger for over a week in one area before.

That makes two of us....GP

I've heard of it, it's just unusual. The basic explanation given in the past is that there are usually other weather systems -
high pressure and low pressure systems - that wind up steering a cyclone along a front line. Some times the steering forces are not so strong, and much less often are practically absent.

Yes. That's the explanation I've heard any number of times from the meteorologists on the various news / weather channels too.

Where have you heard of another CAT 4 hurricane lingering, back tracking and re-engaging the same coastline a week later?

Long ago I heard about that with some (few) storms. Whether any were cat 4 or a pack of lions I do not know.

Since we have seen lingering before and are seeing it again it's a safe bet that prior to the detailed records we have now it happened with Cat 4 storms.

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Post #: 28

RE: Hurricane Harvey - 8/28/2017 9:19:04 PM

wdolson

Posts: 10398
Joined: 6/28/2006
From: Near Portland, OR
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quote:

ORIGINAL: wdolson

If Harvey goes back out to the Gulf as is now predicted, it could come back on land revitalized. Houston could end up as devastated as New Orleans from Katrina. My SO was saying today that New Orleans has a core of people who deeply love the city and wanted to restore it, but few feel that way about Houston. I'm sure there are people who love Houston, but there isn't the passion about the place New Orlanders hold for their city.

Houston exists for commerce, if the place is too badly damaged to do commerce, the merchants will pick up and go someplace where they can do business.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy
Aye. But, again where they differ is the presence of concentrated world-class industries and transportation centers in Houston. It will be-up to a point-worthwhile for them to repair their home base of operations in North America and support the community's efforts to do the same.

With all due respect to New Orleanders, their city (particularly the 9th and 5th wards) is still a complete mess economically, structurally, infrastructurally, etc. The passionate core is insufficient to revitalize a major metropolitan area. Houston's oft-besmirched industrial might has some significant advantages that New Orleans never has had and never will.

Yes, there are still parts of New Orleans that is a mess. Good old fashioned Louisiana corruption hasn't helped any.

A lot depends on how much the industries of Houston want to bring back the city. Some industries like the refining can't realistically move, but a lot of the white collar industries could be done anywhere. Houston has been home to the world's oil industry for over 100 years, but few people in it like living in Houston. I've known a fair number of people in the oil industry (including my sister) and all of them felt that having to move to Houston was like being sent to Siberia in the old USSR.

The white collar oil jobs is a huge part of Houston's economy. Starting salary for a Geologist right out of school is around $130K, an establish geo-professional can make $300K a year before bonuses. My friend who was here last week retired two years ago and what finally got him to pull the rip cord was when he looked over his financials and realized he could live indefinitely on his investments, even though the $300K a year was enticing, it wasn't worth the politics and other BS anymore.

If the oil business moves a lot of their offices, the top end of Houston's economy will collapse.

I give it 50/50 odds they will. A large percentage of the workers would be happy to live somewhere else, the requirement everything be concentrated in one geographic location has been gone for a generation, and if the different companies had their offices further apart there would be less poaching of talent.

The refineries are kind of stuck where they are and a lot of the other industrial plants too, though many of them might be out of service for a long time to come. Latest news is chemicals stored at the industrial plants are leaking into the air and water. People exposed to them are getting sick.

This is a very weird hurricane, just about the perfect storm to do the maximum damage to the region with the highest GDP in the hurricane zone. Hurricanes will occasionally go back out to sea, but I have never seen one backtrack and go back out to sea pretty much along the track it came in on. Conditions over the continent were just about perfect to hold the hurricane near the shore. The tropical depression off Florida also helped steer Harvey in where it hit.

Economically, this is going to be a big hit to the American economy. I'm glad I drive an electric car now, no worries about gas prices and my cost of "fuel" is unaffected.

Bill

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Post #: 29

RE: Hurricane Harvey - 8/29/2017 1:49:37 AM

Chickenboy

Posts: 24520
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From: San Antonio, TX
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Meh. I think your "50/50" odds of economic collapse are ridiculously / exorbitantly high. You're not giving any credence to Texan pluck and how much the state pulls together in times of crisis. Texans are very resilient and cohesive. I know a number of Houstonians and they are not as bitter and repulsed by the experience of living in Houston as you suggest your contacts are. Guess we're sampling different folks, but you're entitled to your opinion. But let's try not to poison the well any more than we have to for Texans right about now, shall we?

The Houston economy is heavily reliant on the oil and gas industry for a number of reasons that aren't going away any time soon. As more and more states (particularly those on the left coast) deny their reliance on fossil fuels and continue their cloudcuckooland NIMBY-ism about refineries, offshore oil drilling and natural gas production and transportation systems, they are-by default-allowing those states that are willing and able to do so. Texas has no problem providing that which is needed both domestically and internationally.

The chemical leaching is a problem to be sure. But I've heard reports that the lack of hurricane-specific storm force damage will ensure a more speedy return to normal function than expected. Many many people's homes are flood damaged. The businesses and industries (particularly the oil and gas industry) much less so.

San Antonio's economy used to be more reliant on the oil and natural gas industry than it is now. It has admirably diversified to avoid the typical oil and gas boom and bust cycles that constantly occur. To a lesser extent, Houston can do the same.

I propose a wager, Bill. If, in 5 years time, Houston hasn't recovered much better than, say, New Orleans 5 years post-Katrina then I'll pay up. If it has done a much better job of avoid the economic Armageddon that you predict even odds for, then you'll pay up. Say $100 to the American Red Cross in the winner's name?

Lastly, congratulations on your electric car. I presume that the electricity that you charge it comes from some place other than the conventional grid? You know, the one that generates large proportions of its electricity from large hydroelectric, natural gas, nuclear and coal? The one that loses upwards of 9.2% of the generated electricity in CA from transmission. (Oregon is somewhat better at 6.4%, WA at 5.9%) Many people with electric cars forget that much of the electricity they rely upon is fossil-fuel generated and, yes, is impacted by market prices accordingly. And don't get me started about the pending Lithium Ion battery disposal difficulties that will be a building concern.

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Post #: 30