wdolson
Posts: 10398
Joined: 6/28/2006
From: Near Portland, OR
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quote:
ORIGINAL: Chickenboy
Meh. I think your "50/50" odds of economic collapse are ridiculously / exorbitantly high. You're not giving any credence to Texan pluck and how much the state pulls together in times of crisis. Texans are very resilient and cohesive. I know a number of Houstonians and they are not as bitter and repulsed by the experience of living in Houston as you suggest your contacts are. Guess we're sampling different folks, but you're entitled to your opinion. But let's try not to poison the well any more than we have to for Texans right about now, shall we?
The Houston economy is heavily reliant on the oil and gas industry for a number of reasons that aren't going away any time soon. As more and more states (particularly those on the left coast) deny their reliance on fossil fuels and continue their cloudcuckooland NIMBY-ism about refineries, offshore oil drilling and natural gas production and transportation systems, they are-by default-allowing those states that are willing and able to do so. Texas has no problem providing that which is needed both domestically and internationally.
There is a fair bit of NIMBY all over, not just on the west coast. My sister is a petroleum Geologist and I have seen the industry up close. I'm not as hair on fire about that sort of stuff as most people.
It's also a little known fact California is one of the top oil producing states in the US (#3 in production and #4 in proven reserves). Texas production has bounced back from the brink in recent years in part because of secondary recovery technologies perfected in California. Though there have been some new fields opened up in Texas because of new fracking techniques developed for fields like the Bakkan.
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The chemical leaching is a problem to be sure. But I've heard reports that the lack of hurricane-specific storm force damage will ensure a more speedy return to normal function than expected. Many many people's homes are flood damaged. The businesses and industries (particularly the oil and gas industry) much less so.
San Antonio's economy used to be more reliant on the oil and natural gas industry than it is now. It has admirably diversified to avoid the typical oil and gas boom and bust cycles that constantly occur. To a lesser extent, Houston can do the same.
I propose a wager, Bill. If, in 5 years time, Houston hasn't recovered much better than, say, New Orleans 5 years post-Katrina then I'll pay up. If it has done a much better job of avoid the economic Armageddon that you predict even odds for, then you'll pay up. Say $100 to the American Red Cross in the winner's name?
I am not normally one to make bets, nor am I certain Houston will struggle severely to recover, I did give it 50/50 odds. Though for a charity like the Red Cross, I can go for that.
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Lastly, congratulations on your electric car. I presume that the electricity that you charge it comes from some place other than the conventional grid? You know, the one that generates large proportions of its electricity from large hydroelectric, natural gas, nuclear and coal? The one that loses upwards of 9.2% of the generated electricity in CA from transmission. (Oregon is somewhat better at 6.4%, WA at 5.9%) Many people with electric cars forget that much of the electricity they rely upon is fossil-fuel generated and, yes, is impacted by market prices accordingly. And don't get me started about the pending Lithium Ion battery disposal difficulties that will be a building concern.
First off, I didn't buy the car because I'm an eco type. I wanted better fuel economy than my 1992 Buick, but I was only looking for about a 20% improvement. I bought my car because it's a vastly superior car to anything else out there. It has the acceleration of a Corvette, the cargo space of a Subaru Forester, is very quiet, and happens to get the equivalent of over 100 miles to the gallon.
My power is from hydro, but I live 10 miles from the dam. The energy lost in transmission is very small here. That's probably why our electricity is only $0.08/KWH.
Since I did go electric I have done a lot of reading about the infrastructure and impact. For one thing even using the dirtiest source of electricity generation (coal), it's still better to fuel an electric car that way than via gasoline. Gasoline is an amazingly compact energy source, it has 33+ KWh/gal (the EPA uses 33.7, but the actual energy varies depending on the type of blend used), but ICE engines are terribly inefficient. For the average car, only about 20% of the energy in the fuel ends up turning the wheels. Most of the rest is wasted creating heat. The most efficient hybrids get up around 30%.
If you consider transmission losses, losses charging the batteries, and losses converting the DC battery power to AC to drive the motor, electric cars are around 70% efficient. If you charge from a source with no transmission losses (like solar on your house), that can go up to around 80%.
The primary fuel for electricity generation in the US these days is natural gas and it will likely continue to be for the next decade or two at least. Because of all the oil and gas exploration in the last 20 years, North America has a huge glut of natural gas. So it's cheap and has the advantage of being cleaner burning that other fuels of the past. Solar and wind power might surpass natural gas at some point, they are the fastest growing segments of the energy economy, but natural gas is going to continue to be king for the near future.
The battery disposal problem is a myth created by people trying to scare people away from electric cars. And there is a difference between li-ion and lithium batteries. Lithium batteries are like alkaline batteries, they are use once and throw away. Most are in the hands of consumers and recycling post consumer is a hit and miss thing.
Li-ion batteries actually don't have much lithium in them. They are actually a class of batteries with different chemistries, but all have small particles of lithium for the one electrode. The type of batteries used by Tesla use a lot of nickel and cobalt. The Nissan Leaf, Chevy Bolt, etc. use a different chemistry with different materials. All of them use a fair bit of graphite too.
Industrial recycling is a lot easier to do than post consumer and most of the batteries will be recycled through industrial channels rather than consumer. Car mechanics, car dealers, etc. will be sending the batteries into the recycling channel just like lead acid batteries from cars are put through now. It will be essentially be a very similar process to recycling lead acid batteries, just on a little larger scale. The handling is a bit different, but lead acid batteries are chemically pretty nasty and the recycling plants are able to handle that.
Very few li-ion batteries from cars have been recycled to date because very few have reached end of life. Early Nissan Leafs had poor battery management software and they saw some sharp declines in capacity over their first few years, but a lot of 2012 Tesla drivers still have 90-95% of their original capacity 5 years later. Even earlier Tesla Roadsters see close to their original capacities too. With good battery management software, battery degradation is very slow. I've seen 0% in 15 months.
Before end of life recycling, some companies like BMW are turning used battery packs into stationary storage for solar and wind systems. There are debates back and forth about the efficiency of that approach, but battery recycling is a well known thing and anyone who actually knows the business isn't concerned. Today very little lead is newly mined for lead acid batteries, almost all of it is reclaimed from existing sources, mostly old batteries. A large percentage of steel that goes into cars is recycled from old cars too.
Bill
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RE: Hurricane Harvey - 
I'm going through Xanax like Good & Plenty. Bright side is the local infrastructure is starting to recover. But man, the damage 
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