RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice)

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 5/5/2019 10:24:55 AM

HansBolter

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In NoPac I give preference to developing Shemya over Attu as it can be built just marginally to a 4E usage level and B24s can reach Paramashiro from it.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 5/5/2019 11:07:13 AM

Canoerebel

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The gaps will be filled later. For now, it was more important to have a redoubt at the end of the chain of islands.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 5/5/2019 11:33:34 AM >

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 5/5/2019 2:57:46 PM

T Rav

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In my old unit the phrase was "You can't land at Shemya until you land at Shemya." I never went there, but apparently it is a tough windy place.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 5/5/2019 4:44:30 PM

BBfanboy

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quote:

ORIGINAL: T Rav

In my old unit the phrase was "You can't land at Shemya until you land at Shemya." I never went there, but apparently it is a tough windy place.

That pretty much describes all of the Aleutians, doesn't it?

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 5/7/2019 7:41:37 PM

Canoerebel

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1/26/43 to 2/9/43

Singers: The fortress meekly surrendered around 1/29, overcome by a 3:1 attack. Over the last six months, I lost 18 subs involved in the bucket brigade, plus many others damaged. I didn't enjoy the long scrolling message of units that surrendered nor Axis Sally's broadcast.

China: No attacks on the MLR. Dave seems to have pulled back a bit from the Sian front. I wonder if he's moving towards the Kukong front, far to the SW, but have no confirmation yet. I'll know in two or three turns if the fourth and last of the Wenchow corps is going to make good its unlikely escape.

The IO Theater: Allied troops are prepping. I think Dave is expecting a move somewhere in this theater, so I won't take any major action unless KB shows up far away (or until the date when the Allies have the advantage in carriers).

The Oz Theater: No enemy action. Allied units are dispersed and preparing for small moves, here and there. Engineers are finally moving to occupy and build Coen and Portland Roads. Torres Island is still mine, though the garrison has long been out of supply.

SWPac: No enemy moves, so the Allies continue to work on infrastructure/garrisons at Luganville, Efate and New Caledonia.

SoPac: In the month since the invasion of Tarawa, no enemy carrier force has appeared. Based on recon and enemy ship movements it looks like the Marshalls are woefully defended. He's trying to address that now. In the meantime, I've built up Tarawa and Tabituea substantially and hope to occupy Makin in a day or two. I have troops prepping for the Marshalls, but expect Dave to bring in sufficient assets to turn this into a tough meeting engagement that should take many months. I want to fight out here, even while I try to avoid stumbling blindly into an ambush.

CenPac: Midway port to level 3. I've pulled out the Bobcats. A tank battalion will arrive in two days.

NoPac: The long winter objective to occupy, garrison and build a long string of islands is complete. Ships will try to deliver more supplies while things remain quiet. I don't have near-term offensive plans here. I wonder if Dave does?

SigInt: Every indication is that he's building his defenses in depth. Reports of troops at a base near Kaeving, at Kendari, at this interior place and that interior place. But no reports that would suggest a looming offensive. That doesn't mean he's not planning one - but it's unlikely that extensive prep is involved, meaning he'd likely have a hard time against the many defensive redoubts built during the past year.

Allied Plans: I hope to pick off some exposed enemy bases over the coming months, but mainly I'm looking for Dave to come out and fight somewhere where the odds are even - the Guadalcanal stage of the game. It's time to attack and attrition in someplace like the Aleutians or Marshalls.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 5/8/2019 12:57:46 AM

T Rav

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Runway at Shemya was a factor as well, with some aircraft landing, but due to weather, running off the runway. But as you say, the Aleutians have hard weather much of the time.

T Rav

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 5/8/2019 1:19:33 PM

Encircled

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Running B-29s out of Shemya in my current game.

Got to be careful with the fatigue though (more a B-29 problem than Shemya to be fair) but it does mean holding it you can hit Japan properly as soon as B-29s arrive

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 5/8/2019 2:02:11 PM

Canoerebel

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Having a B-29 base in the Aleutians or the Marianas should persuade your opponent to attend to his defenses in depth. And that's about all it does. A strat bombing campaign from either location (or locations of similar distance) would lose far more aircraft than it would gain points, at least against an experienced player. In order to strat bomb effectively, you've gotta get close. Formosa is "okay." Parts of China are "okay." Sikhalin Island is "pretty good, especially against Hokkaido." Korea and vicinity is best.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 5/8/2019 3:19:28 PM

Canoerebel

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2/10/43 to 2/14/43

Tarawa & Vicinity: I think a meeting engagement will develop here. The invasion caught Dave by surprise, as his Marshalls islands are lightly garrisoned. The early battle in which Takoa was clobbered apparently left him without a decent surface combat force in the vicinity, and his airfields are small. Since Allied engineers built Tarawa large, he's being cautious at the moment. Two USN DDs savaged a bunch of xAKLs and PBs at Jaulit on the 10th, probably making him more reluctant to take chances. USN sub near Truk reported enemy carrier plans, which might be carriers inbound. Tarawa is very strongly held and the Allies are about to re-invade Makin, which is very weakly defended. The invasion force is strong enough but poorly prepped. A well-prepped RCT will assault Abemama in a few days. The Allied carrier force is hanging around on the periphery. I'll fight here, though he may come in overwhelming numbers.

China: The fourth and last of the old Wenchow corps made it to the Chinese MLR. These escapes were small matters but quite unexpected. No enemy assaults on the MLR. Daily enemy bombings at Kukong and Changsha.

Bay of Bengal/DEI: No enemy offensive stirrings, that I can detect.

Oz: No enemy stirrings, that I can detect.

SoPac: Luganville has about 180 AV behind nearly 7 forts with 65k supply. Dave shows no sign of venturing further forward, but if he does, this is the primary speed bump.

CenPac: Allies have pulled Bobcats out of Midway (going to Wallis Island) and are about to transfer the Midway base force to Kure dot hex. Armored battalion replaced them, creating the max-anticipated garrison.

NoPac: Trying to get as much supply to forward bases as possible, on the chance that Dave triggers a spring offensive. None of the Allies garrisons are impregnable, but the overall defensive scheme is solid.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 5/8/2019 3:46:30 PM

jwolf

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Kudos for saving all of the survivors from Wenchow. For the big strategic picture that may or may not really matter, but it's a nice morale boost both for you and your e-troops in China.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 5/8/2019 5:25:30 PM

BBfanboy

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You disrupted his early invasion plans, especially with Singapore. Feb. 1943 is much too late for the Japanese to contemplate new conquests - it will cost them more than they can gain. Dave seems loss-averse and therefore risk-averse. Hard to win (or even fight) a war without risking stuff.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 5/9/2019 7:14:38 AM

Encircled

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Oh definitely

Forces him to commit more than he'd wanted to Northern Japan, and weakens him elsewhere.

As a partial consequence of that, my B-29s are now based on Formosa.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 5/9/2019 12:51:54 PM

HansBolter

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Having a B-29 base in the Aleutians or the Marianas should persuade your opponent to attend to his defenses in depth. And that's about all it does. A strat bombing campaign from either location (or locations of similar distance) would lose far more aircraft than it would gain points, at least against an experienced player. In order to strat bomb effectively, you've gotta get close. Formosa is "okay." Parts of China are "okay." Sikhalin Island is "pretty good, especially against Hokkaido." Korea and vicinity is best.

Are Japan's night fighters really that much better in the hands of a player compared to the AI?

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 5/9/2019 12:56:26 PM

Canoerebel

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My expectation would be that any asset will be better employed by an experienced and gifted player than it would be by a less experienced player or by the AI. Night fighters are only one aspect of defense - flak, House Rules, distribution, pilot training, etc. will each have an impact. Players should be better able to utilize these effectively than is the AI.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 5/9/2019 3:01:28 PM

HansBolter

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

My expectation would be that any asset will be better employed by an experienced and gifted player than it would be by a less experienced player or by the AI. Night fighters are only one aspect of defense - flak, House Rules, distribution, pilot training, etc. will each have an impact. Players should be better able to utilize these effectively than is the AI.

I understand all of that, but is the difference in efficacy so great as to make a night bombing campaign from distance ineffective?

Any bombing campaign launched from the Marianas or China, as I have done from Tinian and Hangchow for a year, must be conducted at night, even against the AI, as the AI is no slouch at placing multiple hundreds of multiple fighter types at HI bases.

My B-29s have to fight their way through dozens upon dozens of radar equipped night fighters, yet sill managed to run up 32k+ victory points and come near to completely destroying the industrial complexes in Nagasaki and Hiroshima.

Is this something that truly can't be done against a thinking opponent? It would seem to me that the only discernable difference between a night fighter squadron assigned a night cap mission by the AI and one by a player would potentially be the experience and skill levels of the pilots.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 5/9/2019 3:12:41 PM

Anachro

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quote:

ORIGINAL: HansBolter

My B-29s have to fight their way through dozens upon dozens of radar equipped night fighters, yet sill managed to run up 32k+ victory points and come near to completely destroying the industrial complexes in Nagasaki and Hiroshima.

I haven't gotten to this point yet in a campaign, but wouldn't it be hundreds instead of dozens if going against a human opponent, especially if PDU is on? That's a big difference. Dozens of fighters is nothing for massed 4Es.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 5/9/2019 3:43:18 PM

BBfanboy

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Anachro

quote:

ORIGINAL: HansBolter

My B-29s have to fight their way through dozens upon dozens of radar equipped night fighters, yet sill managed to run up 32k+ victory points and come near to completely destroying the industrial complexes in Nagasaki and Hiroshima.

I haven't gotten to this point yet in a campaign, but wouldn't it be hundreds instead of dozens if going against a human opponent, especially if PDU is on? That's a big difference. Dozens of fighters is nothing for massed 4Es.

Night fighters cannot fight en masse like day fighters so I am not sure you can effectively employ hundreds of NFs in one place. Anytime I have seen Combat Reports of NF intercepts only a few are shown attacking the raid. Anyone see anything different?

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 5/9/2019 3:45:14 PM

Anachro

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Accepting that, I was taking Hans to mean all he sees is dozens and dozens of fighters in CAP over one place. If he means hundreds but dozens at a time in any given combat event, then I withdraw my earlier statement. Also, strange that you can't employ large numbers of NF's. Does that mean you can have 100 on CAP but only 15 would appear in the combat? Seems somewhat strange, but useful to know for my Japan game.

< Message edited by Anachro -- 5/9/2019 3:46:59 PM >

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 5/9/2019 3:50:03 PM

Canoerebel

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I've never seen hundreds of night fighters over a single base. I have seen a couple of dozen. That and flak and balloons and distance are enough to do bad things to B-29s properly crewed. No way a player would score 32k Strat points by bombing from the Marianas or Shemya. And whatever he did manage to score would be partly offset by lost-bomber points.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 5/9/2019 3:51:25 PM

Anachro

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Balloons can be avoided by staying at 6k altitude or above, so no reason to do 5k runs as I think marginally effective over 6k.

quote:

Baloons
The Balloon effect is determined by maximum value of (a) plus (b) below. The overall maximum of the sum is 9.
(a) Balloons are present in a base if the AF + port > 6. The value is the fort level of the hex.
(b) Balloons can be added to a base/LCU by creating a device of type BALLOON. The value is the number of devices. [not currently in use]

They affect aircraft flying below 6000'.

< Message edited by Anachro -- 5/9/2019 4:01:56 PM >

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 5/9/2019 4:47:54 PM

BBfanboy

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Anachro

Accepting that, I was taking Hans to mean all he sees is dozens and dozens of fighters in CAP over one place. If he means hundreds but dozens at a time in any given combat event, then I withdraw my earlier statement. Also, strange that you can't employ large numbers of NF's. Does that mean you can have 100 on CAP but only 15 would appear in the combat? Seems somewhat strange, but useful to know for my Japan game.

You can have hundreds in the air but only a few can be vectored onto the enemy raid. Don't want your NFs crashing into each other. My understanding is that they would be vectored in series so one engages, and when it breaks off the next one engages. Even if the NF has it's own radar it can't get an overall picture of what is happening so ground radars must vector the fighters to avoid conflicts. The limited number of radars and controllers would limit the NF employment. I think that is the problem abstracted by the NF algorithms.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 5/9/2019 5:18:09 PM

HansBolter

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Yes I meant hundreds of fighters stationed at the bases with dozens of night fighters of varying types encountered in strategic bombing missions.

The array of different airframe types the IronMan AI throws at me is staggering.

The large bases in the HI have anywhere from 300-500 fighters stationed at them.

I didn't dare fly day missions from ranges outside fighter escort range so my strategic bombing campaign was a night campaign.

Anywhere from 60% to 80% of the bombers 'strayed due to night' on any given mission. I would typically get one coordinated mission ranging from 60-90 bombers and the remainder trickle in by 2s, 3s and 5s.

All told a years worth of this kind of effort netted reasonable results.

This effort started in late '44 with a few hundred B29s after securing the Mariana's and Hangchow.

By October '45 I have over 1,200 B29s on Tinian, about 350 more on Guam and about 500 in Hanchow.

I'm currently investing Nagasaki while reducing forts and am adjacent to Hiroshima to I have recently backed off the campaigns against those targets and am resting the bomber force before unleashing them on Osaka.

I also bomb from either 20k or 25k to minimize flak losses and force fighters to come up to meet me. In spite of the high altitude the campaign netted good results.

p.s. Sorry, it wasn't my intent to derail the AAR with a strat bombing discussion.

< Message edited by HansBolter -- 5/9/2019 5:40:13 PM >

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 5/9/2019 8:08:33 PM

Canoerebel

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2/15/43 to 2/20/43

Tarawa: Dave springs KB and achieves surprise, despite Allied patrols and subs covering the likely (and, as it develops, utilized) vectors of approach.

On the 19th, KB arrives just as an Allied amphib TF moves from Tarawa to Makin. LRCAP from Tarawa wards off Bettys but can't handle a series of large carrier strikes. I lose about five xAP (with more the next day). The balance retire to Tarawa, heavily damaged, after dropping off only a scattering of troops.

The enemy carrier force is to the NW, eight hexes from Makin. Yorktown and her CVE compatriots are down near Canton. I move some carrier fighter squadrons to Tarawa to supplement and order TFs to disperse in all directions. There's all kinds of stuff, mainly small.

On the 20th, it appears that the KB force used flank speed and moved due E, ending up well to the NE of Tarawa. From there carrier air sank AM Vireo, which was retiring to Palmyra from it's scouting mission. There's another enemy carrier TF in the same position as yesterday but with half the aircraft. Some of its scout planes do modest damage to CL Montpelier, at Tarawa.

Now the eastern KB force is too close to Yorktown and friends for comfort - 13 hexes. And if Dave uses flank speed, as is his practice, he can position his carriers amidst my carriers or other TFs that are scattering SW, S, SE or ESE. Yorktown is ordered to follow a combat TF at flank speed. The CVEs are ordered to Canton at regular speed, to take position under decent LBA.

I knew he was coming. I had good screens and search arcs in place. But Dave has still managed to get in amongst my shipping. Drat him.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 5/9/2019 8:49:42 PM

Canoerebel

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2/23/45

Tarawa: KB east moves southwesterly at flank speed and finds four empty AK in range, sinking three. He also has eyes on a small APD TF. He apparently had no information about the whereabouts of my carriers. York moved E from Canton and is well out of range now. The CVEs are at Canton, just 13 hexes from KB and will move out tonight. There's some risk but I think I prefer to go mobile rather than hole up.

Enemy DD TF raided Tarawa, taking on five USN DD. His TF sank two of my DDs. His carrier air targeted the remaining DDs and whiffed. Allied CAP performed pretty well.

Tarawa has 500 AV, four forts, and 50k supply. I can't imagine Dave working an amphibious op successfully, at least in the short run. Any campaign would involved sustained bombardments and bombing for awhile. And that may be his plan.

With most of his carriers accounted for (I think), Allied ops elsewhere will commence or accelerate.

P-39G squadron from Akyab downed 10 Jacks over Rangoon with no losses. I think the Jap pilots must be less than the best, because a Tojo squadron at Magwe had given the Lightnings fits, from time to time.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 5/9/2019 9:24:01 PM

BBfanboy

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One post says Feb 43 and the next says Feb 45. Time warp? Pacific war savings time?

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 5/9/2019 9:31:38 PM

Canoerebel

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Erik-tile dysfunction.

It's '45 in my game with Erik (Obvert).

It's '43 in this, my game with Dave.

I apologize for the cross pollination.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 5/14/2019 4:31:00 PM

Canoerebel

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2/24/43 to 2/28/43

CenPac: Dave's bigger carrier TF showed up near Wake, a day after loitering near Roi. His smaller carrier TF pulled away about four days ago and hasn't been seen. I'm not positive, but I think the Wake-area TF is the bigger one, though he might've changed carrier TF configurations or otherwise shuffled the deck in ways I'm not aware of. I don't think he knows the whereabouts of my CenPac carriers but it playing hunches. His frequent use of flank speed runs is effective, giving him a 1,000 mile striking radius in a single day (movement plus aircraft range) and nearly 2k in two days. It's impossible to guard all shipping against such tactics (which are a fun and nerve-jangling part of the game but so contrary to the real war). He did a good job sinking some ships (AM, two DDs, a few xAPs, four AKs) but I did a good job of pulling off a major invasion, keeping patrols up, and not losing anything more significant in the process.

Tarawa and Vicinity: Both sides have weak forces at Makin after a series of contested landings, etc., and the Allies finally managed to take the base. I hold it weakly but am satisfied, as any Jap invasion is fairly complicated at this point. Tarawa forts to 4.50. SigInt continually shows an engineer unit aboard a maru bound here, but I'm skeptical. The base is strongly held and will have to be reduced before he can counterinvade. I'll fight here, though he can easily bring more to the fight; but there are other things in the works elsewhere, as long as his main carrier force is committed here.

NoPac: With so many IJ carriers in CenPac, the odds of activity up here are low. I'm still stuffing each base with supply, to the extent possible. Lots of bases have RCT but there's only one division in theater and it's at Anchorage.

China: No major action along the MLR, except for frequent bombing in the Changsha to Kukong area. I don't know if Dave is moving a big force to hit a point...or not. I dread the thought of all the arty he employed at Singers showing up here. And it could well happen.

Bay of Bengal: Recon shows pretty weak garrisons in some interesting places. A P-38F squadron keeps ripping CAP over Rangoon. Dave has 175 fighters at Magwe, defending the last 35 oil points.

Oz: He's not active here.

SwPac: He's not active here either. I continue to work on infrastructre and supply at New Caledonia, Efate and Luganville.

Picket Ships: I've apparently abandoned my old practice of using xAKs and other low-value ships as pickets. I haven't done so in my game with Obvert nor in this one. The tactic is a valid one IMO, given the constraints of the game, but as time has gone on, I've found better ways (I think) to provide security, including use of YMS TFs and subs. Thus far I haven't considered employing the old strategy, even as Dave hops his carriers around like a cricket on a griddle. He reminds me of John III in that regard.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 5/14/2019 4:53:33 PM

jwolf

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quote:

Dave hops his carriers around like a cricket on a griddle.

That's an ... interesting metaphor. I wonder if you're just now getting a real taste of what Dave's defense will be like, at least as long as he has a good carrier force.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 5/14/2019 5:18:53 PM

Canoerebel

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jwolf, my goodness! That's a simile!

My working interpretation is that he's giving vigorous attention to defense and using his carriers as a strong, mobile reaction force. (More about that in a following post.) I don't think he has major offensive plans anywhere, at this point, but that's not set in stone (as you'll see in that post).

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 5/14/2019 5:22:12 PM

jwolf

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Rats, you busted me -- simile indeed! Mea culpa!

As for Dave's "strong mobile reaction force" he is certainly emphasizing the "mobile" part.

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