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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 5/14/2019 5:30:00 PM   
Canoerebel


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CenPac: The surprise I felt at the enemy carrier force's rapid, aggressive movement yesterday is doubled today. It continues moving north, apparently at flank speed (unless there's an impossible to follow shell game going on with multiple carrier TFs, which I don't think is the case). At this point, I'm wondering if he isn't hoping to spring a sudden offensive in NoPac, hoping that I was lured to sleep over the long winter and with his carriers committed elsewhere. His subs have been monitoring merchant traffic moving hither and yon, and perhaps its whetted his appetite. A spring offensive after the long quietness might be a clever idea and the plan may be well-thought-out, but I don't think he'll catch too much. I only have modest shipping here. Adak has 500 AV with 6.96 forts and about 75k supply. Some other key bases have about 150 to 180 AV. Several smaller ones have roughly 120 AV. Anchorage and its two satellite bases are the cornerstones of the defenses. Dave can overwhelm here but it'll take time and a lot of effort, if my planning was on target.

I've picked up some great info on enemy garrisons in one sector. I have troops prepped for that sector...but my amphib ships and carriers had already loaded and departed for a different sector. Curse the timing!





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< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 5/14/2019 5:31:48 PM >

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 5/14/2019 5:48:36 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
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NoPac: Since early in the game, I've been working to establish a chain of decent fortified positions. The result is decent but by no means impregnable. Attu, Adak, Kodiak and Anchorage are strongest redoubts. Supply could be a lot better at most of these places, but the first order of business is to build forts, then to build the port/airfields to raise supply limits enough to hold more than 8k or 17k. All of that takes time, especially during wintertime. I attended to this pretty diligently but now wish I had done more and better.

It's possible but unlikely he has a full offensive aimed this way. There's been no SigInt of enemy troop preparation. Dave has showed little interest in this theater and has little info on what I've done and where. To accomplish anything he'd need to devote his carriers and combat vessels for weeks or longer, which would suit me. So this is more likely just a raid.




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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 5/14/2019 6:51:19 PM   
BBfanboy


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Status: offline 		Why do I have the feeling that any IJ invasion of the Aleutians in March 1943 will play into your hands and plans?

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 5/14/2019 7:34:51 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
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Status: offline 		Perhaps I'll get lucky and people will think I know what I'm doing.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 5/14/2019 7:40:14 PM   
Canoerebel


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KB: 50 hexes in three days.

From my chair, the only thing that makes sense is that he's craft a surprise massive invasion in the Aleutians. He must hope the sudden, drastic, vast change in direction would work a tremendous advantage. There's merit in that kind of thinking, only in this case I never deviated from the planning and prep in NoPac. All that planning and prep hasn't left me with an impregnable position, as you can see from the previous graphic, but it does mean that decent defenses are in place.

In a turn or two, I'd expect my patrols to pick up an invasion armada inbound, while SigInt whispers its own tales.

A mere raid makes no sense because he hasn't seen any ships worth coming for.

As for KBs fuel expenditures, that shouldn't be an issue. Both sides have used carriers rarely during the war. But perhaps Sys damage will impact his options in the short and medium term. 'Cause this particular carrier force isn't going to be in the IO or Bay of Bengal anytime soon.




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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 5/14/2019 9:37:54 PM   
Canoerebel


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NoPac: KB moves 13 more hexes, for a total of 63 in four days. The TF is near Attu. My updated assessment is that, perhaps, Dave wants Attu and saw something that led him to believe I was about to garrison or otherwise bolster the island's defenses.

SigInt hasn't given any insights, and Nav Search doesn't show any other TFs in the vicinity or inbound.

Attu forts are 4.91. Defenses include a Marine CD unit with eight 155mm guns. That unit is 100% prepped. A Canadian brigade 70% prepped provides most of the infantry. It has "real" but early squads (IE, its not militia) that I hope will update to '43 squads shortly, but I haven't checked the pools for availability.




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< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 5/14/2019 9:41:11 PM >

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 5/15/2019 11:30:55 AM   
HansBolter


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Status: offline 		Strange direction for so many high speed moves in a row.

One would think that if he was looking to sweep in quickly and catch fleeing shipping his final move would have been a break to the east, not a move toward Attu.

A series of moves like this, that will likely result in a need for some yard time, would be better saved for a decisive use.

I don't see anything decisive about this move.

Strangely curious deployment, unless there is an unspotted invasion force inbound from due west that he needed to arrive in time to cover.

< Message edited by HansBolter -- 5/15/2019 11:32:05 AM >

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 5/15/2019 3:33:42 PM   
Bif1961


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Status: offline 		Maybe a whale watching tour. Japanese do love their whales.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 5/15/2019 4:06:12 PM   
Canoerebel


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I still haven't figured it out - it was one of the standout sprints by KB that I've ever seen, but I don't know why he did it.

NoPac: On the 4th, KB just simply vanished - probably steaming W or SW to the Home Islands. No sign of enemy vessels approaching. Just quietness.

KB: Based upon what I saw, I think that was most or all of his fast carriers - 450 aircraft on ships capable of sustaining 17 hexes per day at flank speed. I think those ships will need at least some yard time. No matter what, I should have a few weeks before they could conceivably appear in the IO or around Tarawa, to intercept ongoing Allied ops.

Indian Ocean: Japanese patrols out of Siberoet (just off Sumatra's west coast) picked up Allied carriers and transports further west (partly a mistake on my part to not steer them further offshore). This invasion force is heading for Cocos Island, which doesn't have an airfield (still). The core of the invasion is 9th Aussie Div. (49% prepped). Lagging a bit behind because it started at Capetown, a Brit brigade 100% prepped is two days further back. I have a lot of carriers but not Yorktown or the USN CVEs. I think Dave's fast carriers are in NoPac. He'll likely have some slower carriers. I don't know what kind of garrison is at this base, which has a 30k stacking limit. I'm hoping/expecting no more than a mixed brigade and possibly only a regiment. I may not have enough to make this work, but Allied BBs may make a difference. I don't know whether Dave will contest or not. It probably depends on whether I've misperceived what's where and what he can bring to the event.

Tarawa: Yorktown and a number of related TFs are just offshore. Partly this is to stir Dave's thoughts in this direction, partly its to cover the insertion of additional supply in about ten days, as a bunch of xAKs are inbound.

China: No stirrings along the MLR.

Burma: P-38s dealt with modest CAP over Rangoon. Then about 25 4EB from Chittagong hammered the airfield destroying about 63 aircraft on the ground. That was a good mission.

SigInt: For better than a week, SigInt kept reporting 19th Engineering Reg't inbound to Tarawa; yesterday, the reported target changed to Yap. This is one of dozens of reports showing prep at mostly interior bases.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 5/15/2019 4:37:04 PM   
Grollub


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Status: offline 		Could it be that his CV's are heading back for refit/upgrades anyway and he's trying to catch something on the way home?

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 5/15/2019 6:09:28 PM   
Canoerebel


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Status: offline 		Could be, though that seems like a lot of effort knowing there might well be little or no return. I think it must have something to do with his plans for Attu.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 5/15/2019 6:31:14 PM   
Canoerebel


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Battle of Tarawa: Dave commits combat vessels against Allied shipping at Tarawa and sends Mini KB after Mini DS. The result is an interesting clash that should leave the Allies with the upper hand in this area temporarily.

Two weeks ago, Dave revealed two carrier forces here - the big one, which sprinted south, and a smaller one that eventually moved off to the NW and vanished. As we know, the big one then sprinted all the way to NoPac. So it wasn't a factor in deciding whether and how to commit my forces here. I wasn't sure where the smaller enemy carrier TF had gone, but I figured this was the most likely spot, even while allowing for the possibility Dave might've sent it back towards Singers.

I configured my carriers defensively, with mostly fighters and all of them set to zero range and high CAP %s. This worked out fairly well. Dave's carrier wings took heavy losses (about 50%, I think), which should render him unable to stand toe-to-toe for awhile. On the debit side, I likely lose CVE Chenango (but not the fighters aboard, which diverted to Tarawa), two DDs, three xAPs, and damage here and there.

The Allied fighter corps is in excellent condition. Mini DS will move NE, willing to seek battle. TBFs and SBDs are set to range six, with a few F4F squadrons set to escort (most set to CAP).

I don't think Dave will pursue, yet he's very aggressive with his carriers. A surface clash is certainly a possibility.






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< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 5/15/2019 6:36:31 PM >

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 5/15/2019 6:46:59 PM   
Canoerebel


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Battle of Tarawa: Mini KB launches morning and afternoon strikes against Mini DS and against Allied shipping at Tarawa.

The CAP performs pretty well. Damage incurred by the fleet is probably equivalent in points to what Dave lost in the air. The decisive factor will be if I retain control of the field while he has to retire to replenish/regroup. I think that's what's happened.




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< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 5/15/2019 6:52:20 PM >

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 5/15/2019 7:31:48 PM   
Canoerebel


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Status: offline 		Another oddity of this game - during this cruise, CVE Long Island has taken two bombs from good enemy strike aircraft and shows but minor damage. The first hit came several weeks back, during the invasion. Since then, she's steamed around, going with DS nearly to Palmyra, then coming back to Tarawa to take this second hit. She's good to go, barring enemy subs. That's unusual.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 5/15/2019 7:32:56 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
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Battle of Tarawa: The Japanese incur 6x air losses.




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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 5/15/2019 7:40:40 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
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Cocos Island: An Allied invasion force is two days out. Dave has eyes on them but many/most of his carriers are far, far away.

I have good troops prepped for targets in the Bay of Bengal, West Coast Oz, and Cocos. When KB showed up near Tarawa two weeks back, I chose to go with Cocos. The core of the force was a UK brigade 100% prepped at Capetown. As KB continued to dally and then began moving north, I wanted to move more quickly. 9th Oz Div. 49% prepped was at Colombo with supporting troops. They commenced loading. That armada passed Diego a few turns before the UK brigade arrived on map, which is how this invasion got spread out.




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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 5/15/2019 8:45:13 PM   
BBfanboy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

3/7/43

Battle of Tarawa: The Japanese incur 6x air losses.




IIRC the right hand side is accurate. Whenever I see discrepancies in reports I just assume the result least favourable to me is more accurate.

Good result though, and your action here might draw TBs away from the ones approaching Cocos Is.
As for Hermes, she gets hit fairly easily because she is slow, but the armoured deck helps a lot so keeping her as a bomb magnet might help other ships avoid hits.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 5/15/2019 10:35:03 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		I hadn't thought of that, though the main carrier TF does have three or four RN CVs. So ironclads are embedded.

For reasons I can't articulate, yet, I like having Hermes a bit behind the others. She has two small torpedo bomber squadrons. If Dave commits ships, Hermes might be able to slide around without having to wade through any subs that go after DS. Or something like that. Or perhaps nothing like that at all. She might just get overwhelmed or blunder into bad luck.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 5/15/2019 10:40:50 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
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Status: offline 		3/8/43

Battle of Tarawa: Dave pulls his carrier TF back but sends in a small CA/DD TF that skirmishes with two small USN DDs. His subs sink two wounded APDs. Tambor puts one TT into CA Nachi (continuing my long, long, long record of damaging enemy ships while the enemy sinks mine). Mini DS slides forward without hostile encounters. Dave might be back, and he might bring back Fast KB, but for the next few days, the Allies should have the advantage here (subject to enemy subs turning the tables).

Invasion of Cocos Island: The invasion TF is two hexes "north" of Cocos. There's no sign of enemy opposition other than patrols D-Day takes place tomorrow. DS and Escorts will take post one hex "east" of Cocos.

SigInt: Heavy signals traffic west of Sapporo, which might be KB returning to port...or not. Those carriers shouldn't be able to come to the IO for at least ten days, unless Dave has some magic way of moving at flank speed without incurring SYS damage.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 5/16/2019 10:25:43 AM   
tarkalak

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

3/7/43

Battle of Tarawa: The Japanese incur 6x air losses.




IIRC the right hand side is accurate. Whenever I see discrepancies in reports I just assume the result least favourable to me is more accurate.

Good result though, and your action here might draw TBs away from the ones approaching Cocos Is.
As for Hermes, she gets hit fairly easily because she is slow, but the armoured deck helps a lot so keeping her as a bomb magnet might help other ships avoid hits.


Both are inflated.

From looking at my AI games and comparing AARs where bot players show such scores the actual enemy losses are inflated with about 50% of the actual losses.

So remove about 1/3 and that is a better guesstimate. 80-100.

< Message edited by tarkalak -- 5/16/2019 10:26:52 AM >

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 5/16/2019 2:04:46 PM   
Canoerebel


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Status: offline 		3/9/43 and 3/10/43

Cocos Island: D-Day takes place on the 9th, with the Allies overwhelming the defenses and taking the island on the auto-shock attack. The defense consisted of a naval guard unit and no forts. The Allied troops were fairly disrupted. 9th Aussie Div. took about 50% disablements. (My island invasion skills need much more refinement.) No enemy opposition, thus far. I hope to have enough time to re-load some of the units even as the Brit brigade and a construction regiment come ashore tomorrow. I'd like to withdraw most of my shipping in about three days.

Tarawa: The Allied carriers are loitering in big circles well SE of the base. Dave's carrier force isn't "visible" at the moment. CVE Sangamon has 24 SYS damage, so I'd like to pull the carrier TFs out in a day or two for a visit to Pearl. But they'll linger until at least one of the cargo TFs can deliver supply (the first is about two days away).

CVE Chenango: She took to TTs from Kates a few days back but somehow lived to limp into a dot hex near Tabituea. That's remarkable. She'll try to hide right there for the next year or two. I won't count on her surviving enemy attention, but it's great that she has a chance. To this point, the Allies haven't lost any vessels involved in the carrier vs. carrier clash.

Indian Ocean: Dave is invading vacant Car Nicobar. CM Abdiel will try to fast-transport land a small detachment at Allied-owned Trinkat tonight.

Magwe: A concerted Allied effort to finish off the last of the oil production here. Sacrificial Hurricanes sacrificed themselves. P-38Gs did very well. And perhaps three dozen Forts and Liberators hit the base, destroying a dozen aircraft on the ground and scoring 24 hits on the oil. Those 24 hits apparently translated into just four damage! Arg! (My last mission, about three weeks ago, scored 10 hits that translated into zero damage.)

China: No major action on the MLR. Dave has a bunch of arty at Changsha that's bombarding. My garrison there isn't impregnable but it is decent.

NoPac: No sign of enemy ships of any kind. Lots of small Allied TFs trying to avoid known enemy sub locations to make important supply deliveries.




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< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 5/16/2019 2:06:31 PM >

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 5/16/2019 2:46:55 PM   
jwolf

 

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Status: offline 		How much of that 81 Flt damage is major? You just might be able to take this ship to Auckland via Suva. Would be cool to save it even if the big picture isn't really changed either way.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 5/16/2019 2:57:08 PM   
Canoerebel


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Status: offline 		Her major FLT damage is 53. Dave is good with his subs, which flood each active zone, so Chenago probably has to remain hidden until the front moves on to distant locales, eventually rendering this a quiet backwater.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 5/16/2019 3:16:54 PM   
BBfanboy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Her major FLT damage is 53. Dave is good with his subs, which flood each active zone, so Chenago probably has to remain hidden until the front moves on to distant locales, eventually rendering this a quiet backwater.

I agree - moving a ship with 53 Floatation Damage before System Damage is worked down to 0 is just too risky. But if it really has a two year repair timeline, you might just have an ARD floating drydock you can send there by then!

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 5/16/2019 7:41:47 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
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Status: offline 		3/12/43 and 3/13/43

Battle of Cocos Island: Dave commits a carrier TF against the invasion force, and a large air battle takes place with DS. The results are mixed but, I think, leave the Allies in control of the field. So this is the second Antietam this month.

I didn't see the enemy carriers coming but based all my orders on the assumption they might. My Cocos patrols didn't pick them up. Typically, my carrier strike aircraft are set to short range and search/ASW. I only issue offensive orders when conditions warrant. In this case, I had set my guys to offensive missions five or six turns back, thinking that anything they'd bump up against would be manageable. Then, two turns back and after Cocos fell, I decided to revert to defensive setting. The escort fighters were switched over to CAP....but I forgot to change the strike aircraft settings! As a result, I lost about 160 of them. Arg.

And even then, my CAP was less than expected. CV Hornet somehow had 104 aircraft and thus couldn't handle flight ops (this was due to squadron size increasing automatically or some such - I never put more than 100 aircraft on a big CV). So none of Hornet's squadrons flew, costing me about 20% of my CAP but saving her strike aircraft from destruction.

Despite those mishaps, Allied CAP performed quite well. The enemy alpha strike got through and did some damage, but not enough to halt flight ops.

I think Dave shot his wad on this attack, so my guys will pull back, but that's mainly organizational - I want to lasso all the TFs into a single hex. He'll probably withdraw but that's not a certainty. He might think more damage was done than was.

Cocos has two forts and the airfield should go to level 1 in about two days. 11k supply is ashore and 400 AV. That's pretty good, but getting supply in will be an issue going forward. He'll have carrier superiority for quite some time to come, as two of mine will go to Capetown.




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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 5/16/2019 8:33:19 PM   
Canoerebel


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Battle of Cocos Island: Thinking my guys are retiring, Dave presses the attack. But his guys are fagged. His alpha strike on the 14th consist of 68 Zeros and 13 strike aircraft, which get mauled by 140 Allied fighters on CAP. A smaller enemy strikes damages two of three DDs that tried and failed to intercept KB. One of those two (Farragut class) will sink. On the 15th, he commits bombardment TFs against Cocos - they manage modest port damage. My carriers and his are just four hexes apart, with Cocos in between. His bombardment TF hung up at the island. Four Fletchers will try for an intercept tonight on the supposition the enemy is low on ammo. Unbelievably, what looks to be a counterinvasion force is inbound. One of us doesn't know this battle is (temporarily) over! He think I have about 130 AV ashore, but it's 400. Supply will be the issue. I think he will pull back, but I've thought that before. My guys will hang around - at least for three or four more days (or until I begin to fear that somehow that big carrier TF recently in NoPac might show up).

Battle of Tarawa: Mini KB shows up eight or nine hexes NW of the island and launches a series of strikes against a small CL/DD TF. My CAP handles things well and Dave loses 70 aircraft to my six.

NoPac: No sign of the enemy. Missions to augment supply at most bases have been successful.

Bay of Bengal: Dave took unoccupied Car Nicobar but Abdiel inserted a small infantry force at Trinkat. His little detachment then came ashore in bad shape. He'll take it soon, as I'm just messing with his mind around here. He has some real weaknesses here but I won't be able to exploit them anytime soon. Unless nearly all of his carriers show up far, far away, I'll be limited in what I can do until my carriers are fixed.

The Year of Attrition: is off to a rousing start. The invasions of Tarawa and Cocos have provoked sharp reactions. Both sides are fighting hard. Both sides are inflicting and taking measurable losses. Overall, I feel like this has gone pretty well.

On the debit side, I've lost a handful of low-value DDs and a bunch of xAPs. Three CVEs have been damaged (one badly), as have three CVs. One BB and one CA have suffered torpedo hits. I lost a bunch of strike aircraft.

On the credit side, Dave's lost CA Takao (confirmed), CA Nachi took a TT, and CA Kumano just hit a mine at Cocos. Dave's aircraft losses are 2x or 2.5x mine. His carrier air has really taken a hit. The Allied position around Tarawa is strong. The position at Cocos isn't so strong, mainly because it's so exposed. I think Dave will give these areas so much attention that others will receive less.

The fighting has been fun and furious.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 5/16/2019 11:09:29 PM   
BBfanboy


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Status: offline 		Is Japan's experienced Naval Pilot pool as thin in Scenario 2 as it is in Scenario 1?
How does your pool of experienced DB and TB pilots look?

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 5/17/2019 3:17:12 AM   
CaptBeefheart


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Status: offline 		Why not go for the jugular (i.e. his CVs) in the IO? What's your assessment of his ships and aircraft vs. yours?

Cheers,
CB

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 5/17/2019 4:32:48 AM   
Canoerebel


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quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

Is Japan's experienced Naval Pilot pool as thin in Scenario 2 as it is in Scenario 1?
How does your pool of experienced DB and TB pilots look?


We've had three carrier engagements in the last 30 days, but those are the first of the entire war. So neither side had suffered any carrier pilots losses until now.

Two-thirds of his carrier pilots have been involved in heavy fighting, taking a lot of losses. The other third - the big carrier TF recently in NoPac - should be in good shape.

I've committed all my carriers. Yorktown and Hornet haven't suffered any losses (fighters or strikers). Wasp, Ent, and Sara's fighter pilots are in great shape but their striker pilots have been a bit roughed up.

My pools are deep. Dave's should be too.

He's lost 1.75x strike pilots and probably 4x fighter pilots in the past month.

(in reply to BBfanboy)
Post #: 659
RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 5/17/2019 4:34:28 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: CaptBeefheart

Why not go for the jugular (i.e. his CVs) in the IO? What's your assessment of his ships and aircraft vs. yours?

Cheers,
CB


If I hadn't lost 70% of my strike pilots, I would. But, if that were the case, Dave would've sent his carriers back to Java at flank speed.

(in reply to CaptBeefheart)
Post #: 660
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