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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 8/10/2019 3:25:22 PM   
Crackaces


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

2/1/44

Battle of Rabaul: The daylight phase ends on a high note.

….wait, that means South Dakota avoided air strikes! But she's way out in Indian country now.





That picture I think is before the torps made their mark? I deduce fires between 21-40, and systems damage 21-40 before those torps hit. Clearly 2 small torpedoes are not going to sink the Mutsu, but she is on fire and has major systems damage. (Forget the flooding damage unless CR noted messages of "Major engine damage" or something like that ..) But this picture shows in my worldview that the Mutsu has to find a port and put the fires out, with some probability due to the systems damage that things could spin out of control.

To verify this .. go into the directory with the animations and you will see animation overlays for fires and systems damage. I do not have my game handly .. but I think each increase by 20% is represented by an animation. so 1%-20%, 21%-40% etc. Smoke animation is representative of systems damage and fires jumping toward the sky is of course fire damage. The more smoke and fire the more systems and current fires. The keen WITP AE player does not gloss over the animations, but uses this information to a strategic and operational advantage. (Over the player that hits the escape key to get into the combat reports.)

The Mutsu is going to eventually need Yokohama .. if she can make it without burning to the water line. There is a higher level of systems damage needed to put out fires and now control flooding. I have to think the IJ will pullout DD's to escort her to a safe haven to extinguish the fires. All the Allies need is a couple of "pumps fail" and conflagration messages, and the Mutsu is history

_____________________________

"What gets us into trouble is not what we don't know. It's what we know for sure that just ain't so"

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 931
RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 8/10/2019 4:08:30 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Well, yer telling me a lot more than I knew. I'm still amazed at how many people know so much more than I do. I've only been playing this game (and it's ancestors) for 17 years!

IIRC, Mutsu showed a message of critical engine damage but no ammo storage explosion. I don't recall if this graphic was before or after the torp hits, but I do think you're estimate on her pre-sub damage is probably about right.

(in reply to Crackaces)
Post #: 932
RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 8/10/2019 5:10:04 PM   
Crackaces


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Joined: 7/9/2011
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Well, yer telling me a lot more than I knew. I'm still amazed at how many people know so much more than I do. I've only been playing this game (and it's ancestors) for 17 years!

IIRC, Mutsu showed a message of critical engine damage but no ammo storage explosion. I don't recall if this graphic was before or after the torp hits, but I do think you're estimate on her pre-sub damage is probably about right.


That critical engine hit means at least 1 engine major damage .. maybe 10! [I would not expect more from a 'S' class submarine]. We can hope she is not only on fire and venting to the sea ..but limping a bit as well!

_____________________________

"What gets us into trouble is not what we don't know. It's what we know for sure that just ain't so"

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 933
RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 8/10/2019 6:17:02 PM   
BBfanboy


Posts: 18046
Joined: 8/4/2010
From: Winnipeg, MB
Status: offline 		Getting that ARD at Truk is a coup - I don't think Japan has any others. Any IJN flotation damage (on subs or DDs or smaller) over 5 will now require leaving the theatre for a distant shipyard.

No D/L on your TFs in the IO/Bay of Bengal?

_____________________________

No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 934
RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 8/10/2019 6:20:28 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Ten turns back, Dave got 1/0 detection on a TF in the IO on back-to-back turns. It was a troop transport convoy toating units from one end to the other. As best I can tell, he didn't sortie anything to intercept. He mightn't have even noticed.

But to answer your larger question, no detection on the main force in the IO. But Dave is expecting something here, so I'll be surprised if I achieve surprise. It may be that this serves as nothing more than a diversion, allowing Allied moves elsewhere (as a short-term purpose).

(in reply to BBfanboy)
Post #: 935
RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 8/11/2019 12:37:57 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		2/6/44

Rabaul: Allied attack takes this key base. Patrols come forward. Units switch prep to distant targets.

Lunga: D-Day tomorrow.

R&R: BB Colorado TF will break for Pearl tomorrow. BB South Dakota broke several days back. Some DDs with elevated SYS damage break off and make for Sydney. Other than those guys, the rest should be good to go. Next stop Townsville to take on replacement aircraft, to deal with whatever SYS issues there are, and to then go on the next adventure (as soon as I decide exactly where that will be).

KB: I'll know exactly where as soon as KB is located.




Attachment (1)

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 936
RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 8/11/2019 2:35:19 AM   
BBfanboy


Posts: 18046
Joined: 8/4/2010
From: Winnipeg, MB
Status: offline 		What a whirlwind you have thrown at him! Kudos on making it all come together so well!

_____________________________

No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 937
RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 8/11/2019 1:02:28 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		It sure has been fun. A series of nights with very little sleep.

(in reply to BBfanboy)
Post #: 938
RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 8/11/2019 1:05:12 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		2/7/44 and 2/8/44

Guadalcanal: D-Day goes without a hitch. D+1 Allied general assault shows 8 forts (!), comes off at 1:2, and doesn't touch those forts. But enemy AV drops markedly and the outlook is promising. DS will remain on station one more day. The troops will rest a day. Then, on D+3, a BB TF will bombard followed by another attack. On that day, DS will retire towards Tonwsville.

KB: No sign of it. Effective work by Dave.

China: MLR intact.




Attachment (1)

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 939
RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 8/11/2019 1:13:44 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		If Lunga was his Gibraltar, he was counting on it to stop a linear Allied advance from Luganville or the Gilberts. But the non-linear Allied attack came in behind Lunga, leading Dave to withdraw most of his garrison.

Here's to non-linear attacks!

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 940
RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 8/11/2019 2:30:28 PM   
T Rav

 

Posts: 387
Joined: 5/29/2004
Status: offline 		Forts are only scary if there is someone in them. That defines island "hopping" not island "grinding." Well Done and BZ.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 941
RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 8/11/2019 2:33:01 PM   
T Rav

 

Posts: 387
Joined: 5/29/2004
Status: offline 		Well Done and BZ are redundant, but not everyone knows BZ...

(in reply to T Rav)
Post #: 942
RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 8/11/2019 4:15:59 PM   
BBfanboy


Posts: 18046
Joined: 8/4/2010
From: Winnipeg, MB
Status: offline 		I know BZ from my readings about the RN and RCN, but always wondered what the antonym is for that when you want to say "You Dunderhead!" ?

_____________________________

No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

(in reply to T Rav)
Post #: 943
RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 8/11/2019 8:59:33 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Does "BZ" mean "Bravo Zulu"? Is that military for "good job" or "well done" or "get your toes out of my succotash?"

(in reply to BBfanboy)
Post #: 944
RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 8/11/2019 9:04:42 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		2/9/44 and 2/10/44

Lunga: The defenses collapse and the Allies take the base on the 10th. The victors will prep for a distant target. DS and most of the Herd will now retire to Townsville.

KB: A difficult-to-pin-down "spotted enemy carriers announcement somewhere around Hollandia or Wolei. I might have to watch the replay again and watch more carefully.

Allied Invasion Armadas: Because of the configuration of the map and the likely location of KB, two of the Allied invasion armadas - at sea, loitering, and very far apart - cannot proceed until KB's location is confirmed or actionable intel is available. A third invasion TF has unloaded to make sure disruption doesn't climb. A fourth might can be handled by fast transport, as Dave seems to have withdrawn most of his garrison, leaving only a handful. It'll take DS about four turns to reach Townsville and perhaps three or four turns to refuel, replace aircraft and deal with a bit of SYS damage. Then it'll be available for offensive or feinting actions.




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(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 945
RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 8/11/2019 9:52:21 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		In the fierce naval fighting at Rabaul, it's confirmed that Japan lost CA Maya. The only large ship the Allies lost was a CL. The two damaged CAs (moderate or less) are at Sydney. BB South Dakota took light damage, 8 or less in each category. And BB Colorado, which took a torp during an air raid, suffered light-moderate damage and is en route to Pearl. With BB Mutsu taking two TTs and incurring decent damage to gunnery, this was an Allied victory.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 946
RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 8/11/2019 10:07:32 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Change in Victory Points over the Past Five Weeks

January 3, 1944: Japan 28.1k, Allies 19.8k
February 10, 1944: Japan 28.1k, Allies 21.8k

The Japanese score hasn't changed due to losing several high-value bases, including Rabaul and Port Moresby. The Allied score has changed due mainly to enemy ships sunk.

The auto-victory denominator (Japanese Points) hasn't changed.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 947
RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 8/12/2019 4:12:37 AM   
Capt. Harlock


Posts: 5358
Joined: 9/15/2001
From: Los Angeles
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Crackaces


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel


That picture I think is before the torps made their mark? I deduce fires between 21-40, and systems damage 21-40 before those torps hit. Clearly 2 small torpedoes are not going to sink the Mutsu,



Remember that IRL the Mutsu didn't need any torpedoes at all!

_____________________________

Civil war? What does that mean? Is there any foreign war? Isn't every war fought between men, between brothers?

--Victor Hugo

(in reply to Crackaces)
Post #: 948
RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 8/12/2019 5:00:49 AM   
CaptBeefheart


Posts: 2301
Joined: 7/4/2003
From: Seoul, Korea
Status: offline 		Love the play-by-play format! Keep up the good work.

Cheers,
CB

_____________________________

Beer, because barley makes lousy bread.

(in reply to Capt. Harlock)
Post #: 949
RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 8/12/2019 1:55:54 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		2/11/44

Enemy Carriers: Whatever Dave's doing with KB, he has me tied up a bit. Once DS is rested and ready to go again (about a week), I think I can prod a reveal, as happened during the invasion of Rabaul.






Attachment (1)

(in reply to CaptBeefheart)
Post #: 950
RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 8/12/2019 2:01:04 PM   
T Rav

 

Posts: 387
Joined: 5/29/2004
Status: offline 		BZ, Bravo Zulu and Well Done are all synonymous. About as good a compliment as you will hear from a Captain or Admiral. I'm neither BTW...

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 951
RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 8/12/2019 4:45:55 PM   
Crackaces


Posts: 3858
Joined: 7/9/2011
Status: offline 		This is scenario #2 no withdrawal. I understand you have had a bad CV exchange sometime in the past, but don't you start getting a plethora of Essex class carriers with air groups? At what point do you think you can match up with the KB and start the attrition? Or is the plan to always keep hitting where the IJ are not?

_____________________________

"What gets us into trouble is not what we don't know. It's what we know for sure that just ain't so"

(in reply to T Rav)
Post #: 952
RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 8/12/2019 5:10:15 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		The KB seen of late has about 900 aircraft. Dave may have other carriers around or about to come online.

DS has about 1,050 aircraft, with other carriers operating separately in distant locales, looking for targets of opportunity.

I don't want to fight at 900 (or so) to 1,050, especially if the battlefield is distant from Allied shipyards and/or close to big enemy airfields. As new Allied carriers arrive, or as KB suffers attrition, that will eventually change.

Right now, good things can be accomplished whenever Dave is prodded into committing or revealing KB at any fixed point.


(in reply to Crackaces)
Post #: 953
RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 8/12/2019 6:00:19 PM   
BillBrown


Posts: 2335
Joined: 6/15/2002
Status: offline 		Attriting the enemy CV fleet is fun. I just put 7 torpedoes into my opponents CV Shokaku. He needs to rename her from Soaring Crane to Sinking Crane.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 954
RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 8/12/2019 6:08:12 PM   
Anachro


Posts: 2506
Joined: 11/23/2015
From: The Coastal Elite
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
The KB seen of late has about 900 aircraft. Dave may have other carriers around or about to come online.


Wow, that sounds nice...hehe.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 955
RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 8/12/2019 7:19:15 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		2/12/44 and 2/13/44

KB: Still reports of CVEs with a couple dozen aircraft at Wolei, but information remains stubbornly sketchy about the makeup of the carrier TF, whether it might be KB, and where KB might be if this ain't it.

Feinting and Closing: To force the issue, I moved a bunch of scouting ships forward towards Timor and the islands to the "north" and ordered a couple of bomber squadrons to target Port Headland. I get the feeling that Dave is skeptical, as one of his subs sank an xAK that didn't have troops aboard. I am trying to lure him out, but there's also "the real thing" hanging back a bit. It turns out Port Headland is defended only by a regiment.

Elsewhere, another invasion armada is loitering, hoping for an all-clear or orders to retire. I'd better fish or cut bait soon, else fate is going to frown on me, and Dave's going to get some licks in.

DS & Friends: My carriers will reach Townsville on the 14th. Lots of troops and transports there and nearby. So it won't be long before the Allies go hunting again. In the meantime, a fast transport TF is loading and eying weakly-defended Merauke.

(in reply to Anachro)
Post #: 956
RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 8/12/2019 8:53:10 PM   
Anachro


Posts: 2506
Joined: 11/23/2015
From: The Coastal Elite
Status: offline 		Out of curiosity, have you ever made the decision to quickly land at a weakly-defended target of opportunity using troops without any or minimal (25 prep)? What were the results in disablements?

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 957
RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 8/12/2019 9:57:00 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		I do it all the time. Oft times speed and surprise against a poorly garrisoned or vacant base is far more preferable than foregoing the opportunity or taking the time to prep.

Of course, judicious consideration of all the circumstances are necessary. Using a raider or paratroop battalion or all or part of a RCT is certainly much less risky than using a division, which may suffer enough disablements to affect other important plans.

Generally, disablements when landing at a vacant or weakly garrisoned base might be 10% to 50%, usually on the lower end.

In the invasion of Port Moresby, which was garrisoned by an enemy division but no CD or Arty, I dropped two 100%-prepped divisions and one that was 100% prepped for another target. That was an accident/oversight but it worked out just fine. The unprepped division only suffered modestly more disablements - barely enough to register at all. All three divisions were ready to fight at near full-strength.

(in reply to Anachro)
Post #: 958
RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 8/13/2019 11:34:11 AM   
HansBolter


Posts: 7704
Joined: 7/6/2006
From: United States
Status: offline 		In January '46 I am taking the Kuriles as targets of opportunity for the force build up that arrives at Vancouver in late '45.

To get things rolling I cobbled together invasion forces consisting of regiments and battalions with little to no prep.

Landings found most islands garrisoned by mixed brigades. Two regiments and two battalions land with as much as 80-85 percent disabled squads. I quickly bring in another regiment with little to no prep only to see it suffer 60 percent disablement.

I had to sit and rest for two weeks while constantly bombing and bombarding to get things to a point where my marginally recovered units could succeed in taking the base.

I'm working on some decent prep for Bihoro for the assault on Hokkaido in February.

Taking marginally defended bases with little to no prep can be done, but its slow going due to the recovery time needed.

_____________________________

Hans


(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 959
RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 8/13/2019 12:58:23 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		My Allied army that came ashore on D-Day at Rabaul included three Aussie divisions about 55% prepped. That turned out to be adequate for the job. Had it not been, another TF was loaded with 1st Cav. Division, which was 100% prepped for Lunga. I wouldn't have hesitated to land that unit had it been needed. I knew there weren't tough CD guns at the base nor other uber defenses, so probably disablements would've been about 25%. And since Dave was busy withdrawing his army from Lunga, and since 2nd Marine Div. was also 100% prepped for that target, I knew that any disablements to 1st Cav. wouldn't have ripple effects.

So, yes, I go with low or zero prep quite often but it's based on consideration of all the circumstances.

And if it was an unoccupied base, I'd break off a single troop transport with a modest amount of AV and let them handle it.

(in reply to HansBolter)
Post #: 960
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