RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice)

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 9/2/2019 12:37:59 PM

Canoerebel

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4/7/44

Battle of Timor Sea: Another wolf sniped...but what in the world is the TF doing SW of Koepang. It's part of DS, and DS is supposed to be two hexes NW of the base, in a strong blocking position.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 9/2/2019 12:40:11 PM

Canoerebel

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4/7/44

Battle of Timor Sea: Keep on wolf-sniping, boys!

This is before the a.m. air search phase begins, but thus far no indications that there might be enemy combat ships or carriers about to pounce.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 9/2/2019 12:46:51 PM

Canoerebel

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4/7/44

Battle of Timor Sea: The a.m. air phase opens with Japanese search, and this suggest that Allied naval deployment is proceeding according to plan. DS to the NW of Koepang, with patrolling combat TFs between DS and the enemy.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 9/2/2019 12:52:58 PM

Canoerebel

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4/7/44

Invasion of Koepang: The morning and afternoon phases unfold quietly - no enemy air attacks, no enemy TFs nearby, no further sub altercations. As the day draws to a close, more troops and supplies come ashore.

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< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 9/2/2019 12:53:09 PM >

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 9/2/2019 12:59:55 PM

Canoerebel

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4/7/44

Invasion of Koepang: Enemy garrison at Koepang is modest. Few engineers, so forts shouldn't be more than six. This looks manageable.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 9/2/2019 1:14:13 PM

Canoerebel

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4/7/44

Battle of Timor Sea: The map looks good. No proximate enemy threats. Good distribution of Allied subs and combat TFs around DS.

But the separation of the CV/CVL TFs from the CVE TFs is troubling. There was nothing to cause it, that I know of. The ability to confidently arrange carriers (and combat TFs) is critical to a player, so I'll give this close scrutiny. At this point, I thin there's an anomaly here or some failure in issuing orders - i.e., I still have confidence in the ability to keep carriers together, barring only the unpredictable react routine that's hardwired into the game.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 9/2/2019 2:37:30 PM

jwolf

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I think Dave was right in his summary of the big fight: close but edge goes to you. Strategically, it looks (so far) like a major victory since you are able to continue operations and the enemy has (so far) withdrawn to lick his wounds. Kudos to both of you for a really great game.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 9/2/2019 6:31:03 PM

SuluSea

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Congrats Dan,

Looking at the battle it looks like it's victory for you, at this stage 50/50 results or in the neighborhood are a win.

Your engineers are better, your damage control is better, your land troops have better firepower, you're able to replenish from the air replenishment CV's, etc.

Your presentation of the battle has been very entertaining and informative.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 9/2/2019 7:27:53 PM

Canoerebel

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Thanks for reading, gents. I'm glad you're enjoying it. I am too.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 9/2/2019 7:35:03 PM

Canoerebel

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4/7/44

Battle of Timor Sea: SigInt reports a Taiho class CV at Culion, which is a small island SW of Manila. The working hypothesis is that this could be CV Aso, gravely damaged and disbanded as an emergency measure.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 9/2/2019 8:10:08 PM

Canoerebel

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4/7/44

Allied Carriers: Reconciliation of Allied carriers damaged, and carriers received as reinforcements since the Battle of Timor Sea, is important in deciding how hard to push and where.

In a week, DS will be stronger, in terms of aircraft numbers, than it as before the battle.

What about KB? I think that Dave lost a CVL and possibly a CV. I think at least one CV and one CVL suffered enough damage to require yard time. There may be others that are damaged but that he'd reluctantly commit if pressed.

Whether he received/will receive carrier reinforcements, I don't know.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 9/2/2019 8:22:56 PM

Canoerebel

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How hard to push and where?

Right now, the key base of Ternate is vacant. There are many Japanese bases vacant or lightly defended to the west, NW and N of Timor. There are major Japanese bases at Soerabaja, Ambon, Kendari, Sorong, maybe Moranado.

When the plan now unfolding/culminating was planned a 9 months back, it envisioned (and had troops prepping for) points from Lunga to Milne Bay to Port Moresby to Merauke to Koepang. The notion was to seek a carrier battle after Merauke by creating a "Fake Herd" bound for the DEI, then suddenly springing DS forward to engage KB. As that plan unfolded, there were modfiications, including the invasions of Rabaul, Manus, Kaeving, etc.

As the plan was being put into affect, units that had been prepping for bases in and near Java concentrated at Perth, including many units from Ceylon. Coinciding with Allied moves into the Arafura Sea and then towards Timor, Allied invasions took place at Port Headland and Broome, both of which have fallen. The units prepped for those places are now prepping for the DEI. And the units prepped for Java and vicinity are aboard ship and moving to Darwin.

I think the Allies can and should move forward. They've repeatedly pierced layers of Japanese MLRs over the past few months. In that regard, Koepang is key. Even if the Allies were to get a bloody nose while moving further forward, Timor gives them a major base inside the MLR. It would be feasible to island hop towards Java, meaning a defeat wouldn't stop me cold. But right now Japan is reeling a bit, the interior is open, and pushing seems desirable.

With that in mind, 3rd Marine Div. (Dili prep at 44%) began loading today and will move forward. There is an APD with an Aussie paratroop detachment at sea, nearing a dot base NE of Timor. I'll take a look at holding it, letting the Marine ships come up, and then sending DS & The Herd to Ternate.

All of that is contingent on things at Koepang being in order, with conquest accomplished or a sure thing, short term.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 9/2/2019 9:54:37 PM

BBfanboy

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

4/7/44

Allied Carriers: Reconciliation of Allied carriers damaged, and carriers received as reinforcements since the Battle of Timor Sea, is important in deciding how hard to push and where.

In a week, DS will be stronger, in terms of aircraft numbers, than it as before the battle.

What about KB? I think that Dave lost a CVL and possibly a CV. I think at least one CV and one CVL suffered enough damage to require yard time. There may be others that are damaged but that he'd reluctantly commit if pressed.

Whether he received/will receive carrier reinforcements, I don't know.

Ships assigned to an AR are severed from the repair assistance of the port itself, so it is often the case that leaving them for the AR to repair everything takes longer than if you detach from the AR after the Float and Engineering damage is repaired. Do a tentative removal from the AR every turn and if the repair time goes up, just cancel the removal. I am betting that repair should take no more than 18 days total - 12 for the float damage and six for the port to repair the system damage. When only system damage remains, the AR does nothing for you and your crew repair the damage without assistance.

< Message edited by BBfanboy -- 9/2/2019 9:56:45 PM >

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 9/2/2019 10:38:33 PM

JohnDillworth

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Ternate is an excellent pick up..............Soerabaja is the real prize. I'm sure it is being heavily reinforced. If you were to get a foothold in Java it will turn into a battle of attrition. Both of you would have to bring everything. You have lots of stuff and will get more and more................you opponent has the advantage of lots of bases and interior lines and would not likely have supply issues. Interior lines will be hard, if not impossible to cut. Hard to be "cute" here. You have made some impressive advances, but running any misdirection is not really possible here. Something else might be open or you could just go head on. Interesting game

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 9/2/2019 10:53:57 PM

BBfanboy

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quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

Ternate is an excellent pick up..............Soerabaja is the real prize. I'm sure it is being heavily reinforced. If you were to get a foothold in Java it will turn into a battle of attrition. Both of you would have to bring everything. You have lots of stuff and will get more and more................you opponent has the advantage of lots of bases and interior lines and would not likely have supply issues. Interior lines will be hard, if not impossible to cut. Hard to be "cute" here. You have made some impressive advances, but running any misdirection is not really possible here. Something else might be open or you could just go head on. Interesting game

Great advice as usual!

I think the channel to the north toward Mindanao would be less developed and harder for Dave to defend because you can also support it from north NG. He only has about four or five bases left on NG. From Koepang/Ternate his oil in Java and Borneo will be in jeopardy.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 9/2/2019 11:02:59 PM

RangerJoe

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My understanding that with the AR in port, if needed they will be used to repair damage even if not specifically called upon.

Shutting the supply lines and/or making them vulnerable to interdiction is also a good thing to do if you don't want to get bogged down in a long and costly land campaign. Strategic bombing can also make Java less valuable.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 9/3/2019 12:31:13 AM

Canoerebel

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Just in from a long mountain bike ride, during which I mulled over the options. My thoughts are pretty similar to yours.

Ternate is open. If I go that way, I might as well go "whole hog," up to Mindanao and north. There are, no doubt, lots of vacant bases. The downside to this is that my route of advance is narrow and subject to counterattack. Maintaining supply levels, etc., will be challenging.

Soerabaja is a level 9 airfield with 90k troops. SigInt reported 18th Div. is inbound to Batavia. To the extent there are openings in Java now, that window might be closing quickly. But, as JohnD notes, Soerabaja (level 65 or something shipyard) is the prize. Rather than trying to leap that far forward, taking on KB and that big airfield, I think the better course of action would be to take intermediate bases - there are lots of them vacant. They'd be used for PBY navsearch, short term, and bigger things, long term.

It'll be another 10 days or so before the CVEs and CV Wasp II reach Darwin. In the meantime, 3rd Marine Div. will land at Dili and APDs will land detachments at some of the dot hexes north of Timor, towards Java. Then, when the reinforcing carriers arrive, I can make a final decision.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 9/3/2019 12:45:14 AM

BBfanboy

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quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

My understanding that with the AR in port, if needed they will be used to repair damage even if not specifically called upon.

Shutting the supply lines and/or making them vulnerable to interdiction is also a good thing to do if you don't want to get bogged down in a long and costly land campaign. Strategic bombing can also make Java less valuable.

True, if no ship is assigned to them. If a ship is assigned to the AR that is its sole focus.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 9/3/2019 7:57:39 AM

CaptBeefheart

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In semi-OT news, it looks like the current Indonesian government is planning to move the capital to Samarinda or Balikpapan. [Link]

Whatever you do, it seems like you have a great window of opportunity to press some medium-ranged objectives in the DEI area. I wouldn't sweat a few prep points one way or the other.

EDIT: Maybe a feint toward Seorabaja is in order. If he's got 90,000 troops there, Balikpapan, Tarakan and like oil centers are probably under garrisoned.

Cheers,
CB

< Message edited by CaptBeefheart -- 9/3/2019 8:00:30 AM >

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 9/3/2019 11:00:46 AM

jdsrae

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I�m thinking fake left but go north too. If you can get him to commit some more troops to defend Java you could neutralise it from the air and turn it into a pow camp.
Somewhere like Denpasar/ Mataram/ Bima might be a good spot to build a big bomber base that would neutralise Java and Borneo.
If there are ships at Bima that might have some land units defending it already though.
If you choose to go north it will be narrow initially, but you can widen the axis fairly quickly by building up bases a few hexes from his bases.
Places like Mataram, Biak, Boela and Talaud can be built to size 8 airfields which I�ve noticed doubles air support, and those places might not have a garrison yet.
Have fun deciding!

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 9/3/2019 12:03:25 PM

RangerJoe

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You could also hook around and work on the North side of New Guinea and set up supply runs that way after that.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 9/3/2019 1:14:39 PM

jwolf

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Soerabaja is certainly a great base to have, especially in your game since the shipyard has been expanded so much. Even if you can't take it for yourself, perhaps you can make sure it is ruined for the enemy so he can't use it either.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 9/3/2019 1:42:19 PM

Canoerebel

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In my game vs. John III, the Allies went north, through Talaud, the islands north of Mindanao, Luzon, China, then Formosa. It worked but it was always a challenge to bring in supply convoys. When the way forward is open, diverting time and resources to widening the shoulder become secondary and, in that game, didn't get done.

In my game with Obvert, I did the same thing in a different location.

This time, the plan has been to avoid supply/reinforcement issues by using a broad-shoulders approach - taking Java/Sumatra/Singapore before heading north. Another advantage is that it allows the British and America/Kiwi/Aussie forces to unite earlier. It looks like that plan also dovetails best with the current "low Japanese score denominator" strategy.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 9/3/2019 2:09:26 PM

Canoerebel

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4/8/44

At the time I viewed this "movie" and issued most orders for the 9th, the focus was totally on Koepang - could the Allies take it short term and would the Japanese intervene. When I took a break for a long bike ride to mull over things, including whether to focus on Ternate or Soerabaja, that the focus shifted.

Battle of Timor Sea: Good start to the day.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 9/3/2019 2:13:37 PM

Canoerebel

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4/8/44

Battle of Timor Sea: A beneficial exchange at Broome.

Except for this sub, Dave has largely ignored the west coast of Oz once things went crazy in the Timor Sea. A huge number of TFs are moving from Perth up to Darwin, mainly carrying troops prepped for Java and vicinity.

Broome was vacant, so a detachment of a West African division took it.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 9/3/2019 2:15:27 PM

Canoerebel

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4/8/44

Battle of Timor Sea: Thus far in the game, Dave has lost about 50 subs. I think that's roughly 33% of what he'll get in the game. About 7-8 of those losses have come in the last week.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 9/3/2019 2:16:47 PM

Canoerebel

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4/8/44

Battle of Koepang: The 4EB at Darwin target the Japanese garrison.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 9/3/2019 2:18:24 PM

Canoerebel

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4/8/44

Battle of Koepang: Japanese auto-bombardment.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 9/3/2019 2:20:03 PM

Canoerebel

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4/8/44

Battle of Koepang: A probing deliberate attack by just two of the armored units comes off at a surprising 1:1. This base will fall soon.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 9/3/2019 2:22:35 PM

Canoerebel

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4/8/44

Battle of Timor Sea: Japanese fleet carrier (probably disbanded) at Culion, a dot hex near Manila. If CV Aso is a Taiho class, then this is here, probably pumping out water. If Aso isn't a Taiho class, then I have no idea what a fleet carrier might be doing at this island.

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