RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice)

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 9/7/2019 11:34:56 AM

Canoerebel

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4/16/44

Celebes: The dark hours end and a new day dawns. There are a lot of enemy patrols up. More than usual, so Dave is working his notions hard. There are a lot of Allied patrols up, but they don't find anything large enough to prompt one of the two types of audio announcements.

My hypothesis is that Dave is leery of committing KB and combat TFs directly against DS - that his forces are still too weak, with a meaningful number undergoing repair. So LBA and subs are his weapons of choice.

I think the Allied carrier merger took place, so I can consider possible offensive options...but now I have a damaged CVE to manage, too.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 9/7/2019 11:41:54 AM

Canoerebel

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4/16/44

Celebes: P.M. search phase. No "spotted enemy carriers" audio, but there are enemy carriers just NE of Watampone.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 9/7/2019 11:45:37 AM

Canoerebel

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4/16/44

Celebes: The p.m. search/air phase has ended. The turn is drawing to a close.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 9/7/2019 12:00:06 PM

Canoerebel

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4/16/44

Celebes: Dave's released enough chaff to clutter the radar screen. I'm uncertain as to what his intentions are.

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< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 9/7/2019 12:01:50 PM >

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 9/7/2019 12:28:39 PM

Canoerebel

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4/16/44

Celebes: Chenango developed a bad limp but isn't mortally wounded.

I'm mulling over three options. I've entered all the other orders around the map, and now I'm just staring at the screen, waiting for inspiration.

1. Retire a bit, both to provide escort to Chenago and to see what develops - to get a better feel for what Dave's up to. He's clearly adopted an aggressive posture. What am I getting into?

2. Remain in or close to the current position, for basically the same reasons.

3. Move more aggressively NE or ENE, creating some separation from KB but setting up a possible move on Ternate. I would detach Chenango with strong escort (the sub threat hasn't spread to points SE, as best I can tell). Part of this would be to try to draw some of Sorong's massive air power into DS CAP.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 9/7/2019 12:50:23 PM

Canoerebel

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Decision: CVE Chenango to split off, escorted towards Darwin. DS & The Herd to move ENE to near Ambon, in position to move on Ternate the day after tomorrow. If things get hairy, the APDs would divert to several of the many dot hexes near Ambon. I hope this move and position will give me another day to watch Dave's deployments and figure out his intentions, keep applying pressure, and perhaps draw a costly LBA attack that DS CAP can chew on. The most important mission of the day might be continued work against enemy subs.

CV Wasp and the seven CVEs rendezvoused with DS, so the absence of Chenango won't be markedly missed.

CV Hornet leaves Darwin today, bound for Sydney. CVE Altamah is near Townsville and bound for Sydney. The two damaged CVLs are east of Luganville and bound for Pearl.

There is an inbound CVL nearing Luganville. CV Bunker Hill at Townsville is about 15 days from being ready. CV Yorktown at Darwin is about 10 days away.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 9/7/2019 3:01:29 PM

RangerJoe

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Chenango - the ship that refuses to die!

Some of those "single ship task forces" also appear to be two ships. Could those be midget subs being carried to look into ports?

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Post #: 1267

RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 9/7/2019 3:42:55 PM

Canoerebel

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Could be.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 9/7/2019 5:42:06 PM

BBfanboy

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Re: those Judys over Koepang - Japan gets some recon versions of the Judy by 1944. I would suspect that was recon missions. Your DL on the base should tell if he managed other successful recons.

Re: the horde of single ship TFs - I kinda doubt he had that many subs to bring in from one direction and I don't think there are that many subs that can carry mini-subs. My suspicion would be small fry to use up your ammo, both SCTF and carrier sorties. The ships near Waigeo would be in good position to follow up if they are SCTFs.

No matter what his actual intentions are, he is playing the "Mind game" part very well but your moves are surprising him too. Great entertainment and instructional too!

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No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 9/7/2019 8:54:27 PM

JohnDillworth

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I think you might have your head stuck in the fence here. You are surrounded on 3 sides and your opponent wants to contest the threat. Don't discount the possibly that his posture is not so much as to confront you but to provide protection for reinforcing his current potion. The most likely outcome of this is standoff with both of you racing to reinforce your current positions and lots of planes and ships lost doing just that. Hard to see how either one of you could throw the other off. Grabbing something else is a good play here and Ternate will take some pressure off. This is going to be fun and expensive me thinks

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Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 9/8/2019 3:24:13 AM

Canoerebel

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The fighting should be fierce and decisive. Dave has the advantage of his large network of big airfields plus proximity to shipyards. The Allies have the advantage in numbers of capital ships and carriers. The recent attrition of enemy subs should be a help. Timor is strongly held by the Allies - a place of safety that's nearby. Oz is filled to capacity with supply, fuel and reinforcements. It's nearing mid-44, and this is Scenario 2 with "normal" capital ships present, so the Allies aren't outclassed. This should be a good place and time to fight.

Knowing how vigorously to push forward without getting whacked by overextending is a balancing act that often doesn't balance. Here, helpful tidbits of information and a decent amount of experience gave me enough to work with, so that the front was extended, creating problems for Japan. The opportunities weren't frittered away through excessive timidity.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 9/8/2019 12:02:04 PM

Canoerebel

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4/17/44

Celebes: DS & The Herd move ENE, towards Namlea. ASW nibbles against more subs. As for getting a bead on enemy intentions, Dave is working hard. His focus is on Watampone (with the exception of his subs, which are vectored against DS and, I think, Koepang).

DS & The Herd, from their current position, will send fast transports to land detachments at Taberfane and an enemy dot hex. Even while that happens, DS & The Herd will retire WSW, to a point near where it started yesterday. Partly this is to keep Dave off-balance (it is hoped), partly to set up opportunities to land at Kolaka to move on Kendari (only if things somehow go well, beyond expectations), partly to offer proximity to Watampone, and partly to give me another day to gauge Dave's plan - which I think will be to counterland at or near Watampone.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 9/8/2019 4:54:25 PM

Canoerebel

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4/19/44

Celebes: A quick post. The graphic shows the tremendous number of enemy subs flooding the area.

The turn opened with an unusually long series of sub/ASW interactions. Subs fired on destroyers, DEs, APDs, but not on any of the big boys. Partly that's because DS & The Herd took station in one of the few hexes where the subs weren't concentrated. A USN sub sank a I-boat near Watampone, and ASW sank another near Kendari.

It's important to keep ASW cycling in and out of Lautum to replenish ammo.

The APDs landed their detachments at Taberfane and the dot hex.

More late this afternoon.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 9/8/2019 7:25:05 PM

BBfanboy

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I can't take the credit for calling that cluster for single/2 ship TFs subs - that was Ranger Joe. I thought it unlikely that your nav search would pick up so many subs so I was suggesting maybe small ships like AMcs and small PBs to use up your ammo and sorties before an intercept attempt by his surface forces. Looks like I need to study the recognition manual again!

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 9/8/2019 7:47:13 PM

RangerJoe

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quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

I can't take the credit for calling that cluster for single/2 ship TFs subs - that was Ranger Joe. I thought it unlikely that your nav search would pick up so many subs so I was suggesting maybe small ships like AMcs and small PBs to use up your ammo and sorties before an intercept attempt by his surface forces. Looks like I need to study the recognition manual again!

Apparently you are/were not a Scout. Observe and report is what a Scout does. "Sargent, there is a pretty blonde over there." "There is a pretty blonde and a brunette over there." "Oh, you want coffee, hop in your jeep and follow me!" To the bakery we went.

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

�Illegitemus non carborundum est (�Don�t let the bastards grind you down�).�
― Julia Child

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 9/8/2019 7:49:16 PM

Lovejoy

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Looking forward to seeing how your plan unfolds. DEI campaigns are like knife fights: close quarters and bloody. I think you're in a pretty solid position. You've got interlocking bases that you can stuff with fighters to boost DS CAP, and he's gonna be forcing his subs into pretty confined waters with your ASW TFs. Once your new bases are built up, heavy bombers should make basing ships at Soerabaja dangerous for him or force him to bring in more fighter squadrons that are needed elsewhere.

Good luck!

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 9/9/2019 2:41:28 AM

Canoerebel

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Thanks for setting the record straight, BBfanboy. Kudos to Ranger Joe, as I think he nabbed the id of that weird group of TFs.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 9/9/2019 2:50:58 AM

Canoerebel

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Did you know there are intercollegiate forestry and wildlife competitions? Schools from Texas to Virginia, Kentucky to Florida, compete each year. The events range from highly academic to the purely physical. Natural history of the vertebrates (identifying critters by a single bone or feather, for instance), wood technology (identifying a species of tree from a transparent slice of wood), log burling (staying upright on a log in water), archery, ax-throwing, tree felling, chain throwing, compass & pacing, and on and on.

In 1983, Conclave was held in the Ocala National Forest. The University of Florida was the host school. I competed in two events: wood technology and estimating tree diameter.

In diameter estimating, I placed second (to a dude from Clemson, of all things). My method was to begin by mentally positing a diameter clearly far too big, and another far too small. Then I'd work "in" from both margins. So, for instance, if we were positioned ten feet from a massive loblolly pine, I'd take a look and ponder. Clearly it was much bigger than 10 inches but notably smaller than 30 inches. That helped me get a feel for things, and I would go from there.

Today I spent about six hours mulling over "what's next." On the low side was, "Do nothing." On the high side was, "Invade Java!" I'm not comfortable, at this moment under these circumstances, with either. I fiddled with different ideas and positions, none with major ramifications (from my perspective) for tomorrow but trying for something that presented possibilities for the day after. I never came up with "just the right fit," but the eventual orders continue mostly to aim at two goals: (1) offensive and defense against enemy subs, and (2) getting a better feel for what Dave is thinking and what he might be capable of.

DS & The Herd are good on ammo but will probably need to refuel at Koepang in three or four days.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 9/9/2019 3:21:41 AM

T Rav

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I learned Ax throwing at my son's Boy Scout event. It needed an 8-hex (12 Feet) range, or you just end up losing your Ax.

T-Rav

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 9/9/2019 2:58:13 PM

Canoerebel

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I don't know if I ever tried ax throwing. Like everything else, there's considerably more skill and strategy involved than an observer might think.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 9/9/2019 3:08:43 PM

Canoerebel

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4/20/44

Celebes: DS & The Herd remain stationary, allowing ASW to work and sending an APD TF to land an infantry detachment at vacant Kolaka.

What's next? The Allies have a tremendous army 100% prepped for Java and vicinity bases. Originally, this was to be an "out-of the blue" strike timed to take place when KB was far away. But events have brought the Allies to the very doorstep. The problem is that there's no element of surprise, and I'm not going to take on KB plus Soerabaja (level 9 airfield) until the Allies have a reasonable sense of local supremacy. Without surprise, it'll take awhile to reach that point (by defeating major elements of the IJN and/or by building up the dot hexes now in Allied hands).

There are slightly better prospects for moves on Makassar or Kendari. My guys have the key landing bases (Watampone and Kolako). However, either op needs a fair amount of time to not only land troops but also to off-load supply. DS is currently positioned for either or both moves, but they are dependent on getting a better feel for KBs location and composition over the next few days.

Diverting to land in strength at Ternate is a possibility. The worry there is that nearby Sorong is a level 8 airfield that would be an issue in combination with KB.

All of these notions are operational and tactical planning. They are important, but its even more important to keep in mind the umbrella strategy: "Its the points, stupid!"

While in this state of flux, attending to DS & Herd fueling needs, and damaging or sinking enemy subs are worthwhile activities.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 9/9/2019 7:01:19 PM

Canoerebel

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4/21/44

Superforts: First raids of the year have wildly different results. Nighttime raid on Soerabaja whiffs completely. Daytime raid on Hong Kong scores all kinds of hits on enemy ships. Enemy shipping targeted? Tactical use of a strategic weapon? Yup. A score vs. enemy combat vessels at Soerabaja might've had an affect on the outcome of the critical battle forthcoming, and both raids (should) lead Dave to re-evaluate threats to key inner bases, spreading out his CAP some. So sorta a strategic use.

Celebes: No sign of KB or combat TFs. Two more enemy subs sunk. DS refueling. Dave isn't showing signs of reinforcing landings in the hot zones. I may try to force the issue in a couple of turns.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 9/9/2019 8:37:54 PM

RangerJoe

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Trying to get all of those dot bases is like stomping on cockroaches.

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

�Illegitemus non carborundum est (�Don�t let the bastards grind you down�).�
― Julia Child

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 9/9/2019 9:11:39 PM

Canoerebel

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Yup. A fair number of them auto-flip, so it's not a big deal. But I like to target enemy dot hexes, if nothing more than to create the appearance of Allied momentum and the walls "closing in."

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 9/9/2019 9:13:30 PM

Gridley380

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Yup. A fair number of them auto-flip, so it's not a big deal. But I like to target enemy dot hexes, if nothing more than to create the appearance of Allied momentum and the walls "closing in."

Yeah, it is fun to see the map fill up with your flags. :-)

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 9/9/2019 9:21:26 PM

Canoerebel

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In my game with John III, I think the Allies were invading Luzon by April 1944. That was a different game altogether: John pushing hard in lots of places, an Allied army getting extinguished on Sumatra, John losing a big Mini KB near the Marshalls, big naval battles off Assam's coast, and much more. The Allies drew even in the score August 1, 1944, at roughly 56k each (I'm going from distant memory). That was a fun grudge match, and the Allies did pretty well to achieve 2x auto-victory on May 11, 1945, especially considering it was a John III mod with Japan getting a bunch of extra carriers.

In this game, the fighting has been less fierce, though not tame. Here the Allies are behind 29.9k to 27.3k. Barring catastrophe (and catastrophe is very much in the picture, for either side), the score should be knotted-up perhaps in May, about three months ahead of the John III game. And, barring the unexpected, I think the Allies can achieve AV considerably sooner than May 1945.

The difference is, as noted previously, the denominator (Japanese points). It's even possible that strategic bombing won't be necessary to achieve AV, or if so only to a modest extent. Points for bases, ground units, ships, and the air war may be sufficient to fully fund victory.

All that terrific fighting I did in my game vs. John III (and ditto vs. Erik) to get into position to engage in strategic bombing may be counterproductive to AV (but not to having fun). A lot of that fighting tends to be on a 1:1 or thereabouts ratio. Keep that up long enough, and the denominator climbs to 60k or 80k, making strat bombing essential to AV.

This is not necessarily under the Allied player's control. In this game, Dave sorta did a Sir Robin defense, which kept scoring low. The game may favor the aggressive Jap player - the one who keeps the pressure up, seeking or forcing 1:1 fights that push the denominator up and up and up.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 9/9/2019 9:25:53 PM

Canoerebel

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On a side note, two turns back I paid 120 points (about 10% of what I have available) to switch Darwin from American to Australian. I have a bunch of permanent-restricted Aussie fighters that I wanted forward, defending the key base and freeing up some Darwin fighters to move to Koepang, which is the front line.

I don't have enough fighters stationed in Oz/Timor/New Guinea and vicinity. I have too many back at Pearl, West Coast, and Ceylon, engaged in training or devoted to possible offensive ideas that have been mostly scrubbed. Steps are being taken to remedy the shortage, but it'll take awhile.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 9/10/2019 2:26:04 PM

Canoerebel

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4/23/44

Celebes: It was an uneventful day at sea and on land, but an unsatisfactory air battle over Watampone led me to reconsider the situation. This led to a revised plan. Until I get some of these new bases built up, the Allies will have to rely on speed, agility, and unpredictability to maintain order in the Banda/Java seas.

Far away, I now have two new Mini Ds - one at Ceylon and one at Pearl. They're not quite strong enough, yet, to take on major risks, but the time isn't too far off in which it'll be feasible to move independently of ops in the DEI.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 9/10/2019 3:03:11 PM

Canoerebel

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4/24/44

Celebes: DS & The Herd will be transiting dangerous waters during the nighttime and early morning hours, on the way to Bima. The turn opens with ASW skirmishing.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 9/10/2019 3:06:32 PM

Canoerebel

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4/24/44

Celebes: As the turn begins to develop, there are a bunch of ASW reactions to enemy subs. It seems apparent that Dave's plan is to cordon off the mouth of the bay into with DS & The Herd have ventured.

And he deploys MTBs from Kendari, too (my PT boats failed to deal with these a few turns back).

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