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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 9/13/2019 2:26:22 PM   
Canoerebel


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Sorong: Keeping Dave's big airfields suppressed will be a key mission in the coming weeks.

Thus far, Dave hasn't organized any strong counterinvasions or landings to deal with Bima, Watampone, Kolaka, Ternate, Morotai (and he has no chance at Timor and Taberfane). I don't know if he'll decide he has to come for these or if he'll be satisfied to treat this as a new MLR. I'll be watching for clues.





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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 9/13/2019 2:30:26 PM   
Canoerebel


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Celebes: This hit adds to one scored yesterday, so the DD should be a confirmed kill.




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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 9/13/2019 2:33:32 PM   
Canoerebel


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Celebes: This is the first bombardment mission by the IJN in weeks. A clue, perhaps, that Dave considers Ternate a real issue. The Allies landed 200+ AV a few days ago, but only 5k supply. It'll be pretty strong, and I think the Allies can successfully defend the base if the Japanese come for it.




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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 9/13/2019 2:42:54 PM   
Canoerebel


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Celebes: Heavy sub warfare during the day. The enemy subs appear to be one day behind DS, including heavily damaged CV Intrepid. There's a chance Dave won't send them into the Arafura Sea, which he long ago withdrew from. There's a chance he'll send them, hoping to pick off cripples.




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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 9/13/2019 2:50:25 PM   
Canoerebel


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Celebes: The rearguard under attack.




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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 9/13/2019 3:35:30 PM   
Crackaces


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Status: offline 		Just a couple of thoughts ..

This is a stock scenario #2 .. not a DBB off shoot .. I would propose this has many ramifications. But one for sure .. the refineries are producing supply, where as in the DBB scenarios supply is not produced and the IJ have to ship it ... There should be the supplies in the area (and fuel) to support the IJ offensive. Now that brings up the question ..

the Allies have more stuff than the IJ. The IJ might score some moral victories but unless they seize the initiative ... they lose a straight up war of attrition. If you think about the whole Timor Sea campaign the IJ have lost 2 CV's (and more) they can ill afford to lose and have lost the use of main ports on Java . The current Allied position is one of great leverage ..

One thing that struck me was the damage inflected at Hong Kong .. were these ships taking stuff to the Home Islands or bringing stuff to China for an offense here?


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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 9/13/2019 4:07:12 PM   
Canoerebel


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Celebes: The big picture.




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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 9/13/2019 4:25:48 PM   
Canoerebel


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Intel Screen: Japanese lead just nudged below the 1,000-point threshold.

All the categories look pretty good, except Army Losses. That's typical and usually evens out later in the game, when Japanese armies get trapped and destroyed on big land masses like Luzon, Formosa or China.

As noted yesterday, in my game with John III, the score was tied on August 2, 1945 at 56k each. Here the score may be tied sometime in May 1945, possibly around 31k. "It's the denominator, stupid."




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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 9/13/2019 5:41:25 PM   
HansBolter


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Status: offline 		Do you really think it will take a year to flip 800 points?

Think you probably meant May 1944.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 9/13/2019 5:49:23 PM   
Canoerebel


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Status: offline 		Yes, I meant this month (May '44).

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 9/13/2019 6:01:51 PM   
BBfanboy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

5/7/44

Celebes: This hit adds to one scored yesterday, so the DD should be a confirmed kill.




Hayate was part of Hyuga's escort when your DDs ran into them a couple of days ago. Maybe Queenfish can now get a shot at the big boy as it retires.

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Post #: 1421
RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 9/14/2019 1:31:15 PM   
Canoerebel


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Celebes: The walking wounded stayed just ahead of Dave's subs. He didn't send the subs into the Arafura Sea, so the wounded accomplished separation. Most of them are now in the Coral Sea. As for the undamaged carriers that took part in the battle, all are disbanded at Darwin.

So now the campaign transitions a bit, as the Allies focus on defending the newly-acquired bases and building select ones as quickly and as large as possible.

Dave will likely be active in taking countermeasures, with the Moluccas possibly his priority target.




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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 9/14/2019 4:15:15 PM   
BBfanboy


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Status: offline 		If any aircraft are still stuck on Suwanee you should probably send all the pilots to the General Reserve rather than lose them if the ship gets sunk.
Same for Pensacola's FPs and pilots if they cannot operate from the ship.

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Post #: 1423
RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 9/14/2019 4:22:33 PM   
Canoerebel


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Status: offline 		That's a good idea. Thanks.

I considered offloading Suwanee's aircraft (you can do that at a dot hex), but decided an aircraft icon would be a telltale drawing Dave's attention.

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Post #: 1424
RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 9/15/2019 12:10:12 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
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The Lucky Ship: Turned out she wasn't so lucky. Dave ordered Judy's to bomb a number of dot hexes, commencing on the 10th. They found and finished off Suwannee quickly. The next day, they further damaged CA Pensacola, so that her slim hopes are slimmer. They've continued since, searching for cripples as far south as Dobo. Given all the hits his strike aircraft scored - like four TTs on Intrepid - he'd naturally think there're more holed up nearby.

The Convalescing Fleet: All except those bound for Pearl (BB New Jersey and a CVL) are in port now. Repairs will take some time. The rest of the fleet is at Darwin in good order, ready to move when called on. They may be called on soon, for the Ambon invasion.

Dave on the Attack: By his reckoning, the Allies have taken a punch and are reeling, so that it's time for him to counterattack. He sent some small combat TFs down his fight flank, towards Koepang. One TF of four DDs, including Hibiki, couldn't be stopped. They just ate right through a series of Allied combat TFs. Even when low on ammo, fresh Allied TFs were powerless to stop them. They sank CA Louisville with three TTs. Some SBDs scored some hits on CL Natori, but she'll likely make Soerabaja.

Over on his left flank, a large transport TF arrived at Moratai to unload a big infantry group. Allied subs and SBDs got involved. All the Japanese ships were sunk (perhaps 7-8 xAKs). 10k men got ashore. They're in pretty bad shape and lack heavy weapons, but the Allied garrison is a small Commonwealth armored squadron of about 25 AV. Allied 4EB are hitting the enemy here daily.

Dan on the Attack Maybe: Even while the focus was getting ships where they needed to go, the Allies were sending forward engineers to key bases. DS is about ready to go to sea again. I don't want to get in a shooting match with KB anytime soon, so ops will be limited to "within the new perimeter." Places like Ambon aren't "safe" but they are attainable, with the proper planning. I think.

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Post #: 1425
RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 9/15/2019 12:40:00 PM   
Canoerebel


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Hibiki's Run: No Allied TF could stop the evil interlopers.




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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 9/16/2019 3:58:26 PM   
Canoerebel


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DEI: I think Dave thinks the Allies are back on their heals, retreating in disarray after taking heavy losses. He's gone on the offensive, a bit. His troops re-claimed Morotai from an armored detachment (losing a small transport fleet, as detailed previously). On the other flank, he's had a bunch of combat and ASW TFs nosing pretty far forward. He got CA Louisville but he's lost a handful of PBs and about six DDs and a CL have taken heavy damage from SBDs.

In the middle, he still has strike aircraft targeting dot hexes, trying to find cripples that are holed up. He already got the Suwannee and has a bead on Pensacola, but there's nothing further south.

Most of the damaged Allied ships are in port now; triage for the mildly wounded is complete; the Allies are ready to resume offensive activities. I don't want a full-on engagement with KB right now. I think there are some opportunities within the perimeter but there's always the chance of bumping into his forces, since he probably views himself as on the offensive right now.

This has been a really fun stage of the game. There's a lot going on, a lot at risk, and both sides are fighting hard.

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Post #: 1427
RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 9/16/2019 8:00:02 PM   
Crackaces


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Status: offline 		The last turn you have not discussed leveling his airfields and ports .. I assume this next turn you will turn loose the 4EB?

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Post #: 1428
RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 9/16/2019 8:13:56 PM   
Canoerebel


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Roti: Aussie armored brigade lands at occupied Roti (a Forumite inquired about this some time back; I said I didn't have enough troops for that base, but it turned out there was a unit already 55% prepped at the time). The enemy garrison is weak but it will take a few days of bombardments and bombing to soften them up, as my guys are weak too.

Airfield Suppression (for Crackaces): Allied 4EB (and some 2EB) are rotating night missions between Kendari, Ambon and Sorong. Ambon seems shut down; Sorong (the elephant in the room) is about 70% damaged; Kendari is only modestly suppressed. On the 16th, two Dutch DDs bombarded Sorong, destroying a dozen aircraft. This type of activity will increase tomorrow.

Ambon: Trigger the invasion or not? As the big amphibious TF carrying a fresh USA division made its way from Townsville to Darwin, I tested Dave's nav search by deploying small TFs NE of Timor, along the projected invasion path. They could get three or four hexes from Lautem without detection, which is about six hexes from Ambon. When the amphibs arrived, the carriers and other warships were ready to go, so the invasion armada departed on the 15th and made good time. By the 16th, the TFs were just 4 or 5 hexes from Ambon. Dave's nav search caught wind of them. If KB is within 25 hexes, there could be problems. I mulled over things and, after much thought, elected to proceed. DS is stout, though (as I've said before) I don't want a carrier battle now. I think that the Allies will have a window of one day to land the American division, which will then allow reduction of the base by bomber and bombardment TF. This was a close call, and I'm not real at ease with the decision I made.

Points: Japanese lead is under 800 now.


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Post #: 1429
RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 9/16/2019 11:05:27 PM   
BBfanboy


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Status: offline 		If KB does get in range, it will likely have to split its strike between DS and the Amphib transports.
Questions are:
- where do you position DS to avoid the 8 hex strike?
- if you want to protect the amphibs and strike back at KB if it approaches, what Nav Attack range do you set for your aircraft

On the day of landing it might be useful to set a SCTF of 3 or 4 good DDs with a low threat tolerance routing and send them NW of Ambon about 8 hexes with orders to return same day. That just might mess up some of his plans and get some good intel on what's approaching.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 9/16/2019 11:30:56 PM   
Crackaces


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Status: offline 		Well I hope you post a map once the festivities go into full bloom

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 9/17/2019 6:31:24 PM   
Canoerebel


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D-Day Ambon: The day opens with noisy action at and near the beachhead - lots of interactions between enemy MTB TFs and Allied combat, ASW and bombardment TFs. The skirmishing continues throughout the turn. The MTBs don't score any hits, but they drain ammo and ops points. A half-dozen of the MTBs are sunk. The bombardment TFs go in without incident, doing modest damage.

Allied bombers target enemy airfields, mainly Sorong, destroying a dozen aircraft.

The landings finally commence at the end of the turn. The men are aboard APAs, AKAs and the like, so despite the late hour the entire division comes ashore. But disablements are very high - 40% - which is more than I'd expected for a unit with 57% prep.
More importantly, the enemy garrison is strong - including an infantry division. This is more than I had bargained for.

There's no sign of KB nor enemy combat TFs. No enemy air sorties. But the unease I felt as I issued orders for the turn increases as I watch the turn unfold. I was left with an unsettled feeling that something bad was imminent, so I decided to issue orders for DS & The Herd to pull back tomorrow - to the proximity of Lautem, where LBA fighters can lend a hand. A few LSTs and one AK with supply will remain to unload supply.

A distinctly uneasy feeling that things aren't quite right.

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Post #: 1432
RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 9/17/2019 6:36:24 PM   
Canoerebel


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Ambon: The turn opens with a few small MTB clashes (a USN DD TF went north, to test the waters, as BBfanboy suggested). Then a big enemy combat TF, including a BB, ran over a USN sub near Morotai. Then this:




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Post #: 1433
RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 9/17/2019 6:53:01 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
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DEI: Dave steered KB towards a possible 8-hex strike, but DS & The Herd had already bugged out.

Just how aggressive is Dave? It's likely he'll pull KB back...but there's a chance he thinks DS is weak after last week's battles. So I'll err on the side of caution, moving DS just a bit further south.




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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 9/17/2019 6:54:07 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 13450
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Status: offline 		Well, there is one CV going to the body and fender shop at a minimum . . .

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Post #: 1435
RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 9/17/2019 7:16:13 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
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DEI: The Allied division at Ambon is in a precarious position, threatened with annihilation.

I like the overall situation in the DEI. This is good fighting ground. The Allies are the overall aggressors, which always favors the defenders. But there are time when Dave decides to attack, or is prodded to do so, which then favors the Allies.

DS isn't engaged in a major operation right now, so it'll continue moving provocatively, hoping to draw enemy fire under circumstances that don't favor the enemy. I hope.




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Post #: 1436
RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 9/17/2019 8:08:28 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 13450
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From: My Mother, although my Father had some small part.
Status: offline 		The question is this:

Do you have the enemy by the nose or do you have the tiger by the tail?

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Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1437
RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 9/17/2019 8:19:51 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
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Status: offline 		5/20/44 and 5/21/44

DEI: KB having withdrawn, momentarily, DS is moving north. The objective is to vulnerable draw enemy LBA raids that CAP can chew on. There's a variety of risks in doing so. It's also possible that the move will provoke a strong reaction that works against Dave.

Over the past week, the Allies haven't lost any ships in the theater, which is remarkable given the level of activity and the risk involved. The only Allied ship lost in the past ten days was a sub (to air ASW) way off near Port Blair.




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Post #: 1438
RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 9/17/2019 8:21:24 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Yup, that's always the question.

Dave is strong, but I really like the configurations in this theater. It's good ground to fight for and, by and large, the Allies have the high ground.

quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

The question is this:

Do you have the enemy by the nose or do you have the tiger by the tail?


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Post #: 1439
RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 9/17/2019 8:30:17 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
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Townsville: Graphic showing the work on Allied three CVs and a CA in port at Townsville - how SYS has lowered over four turns ending on the 22nd. Currently, these ships are addressing SYS damage. When Chicago and Intrepid hit 0 SYS, they'll move on to Sydney (or Pearl, if Sydney is still too busy).

ARDs can handle Enterprise and Lexington II.

There are 5 ARs and 3 ARDs here. Only 30 Naval Support, though (most of the support has moved forward to Darwin and Koepang, with one big unit at Normanton).

Sydney has CV Hornet, CV Formidable, a CVL and two or three CVEs. Pearl currently has two CVLs, nearly ready to go.

CVs Illustrious and Wasp II are six days out of Pearl.

CV Franklin is inbound, nearing Christmas Island.

None of these carriers has major damage. If I avoid frittering away carriers in the DEI, DS will become mammoth in about four to six weeks.




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