Courtenay
Posts: 4003
Joined: 11/12/2008 Status: offline
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A key thing to look at is US production. It was 10. The US has not yet picked Gear Up (option 22). It is clear that the US is really hurting for tension, and is picking every option they can trying to get tension. If the US has not picked option 22, they are a long way away from picking 34. Generally, the Japanese want to declare war the turn that the US would pick option 34; otherwise they are in a race for who declares war first. Right now, the Axis does not have to worry. Unless the US has played some insane game of sandbagging, they did not have 11 tension in at least one of the tension pools. Since they did move chits, and they clearly have enough US entry, I would expect Gear Up next turn. War appropriations (34) is at least two turns after that, but might only be two turns after that; it depends on how much tension the US is able to move. US entry is not the US's problem in this game; tension is. Even if US entry is not quite there yet, the capture of Paris will probably put them over the top as far as US entry goes. To repeat, the US is doing fine as far as US entry goes, but they are hurting for tension. The US will not be able to declare war in 1941, but may be able to do so very early in 1942. If they get unlucky with tension, it might take quite a while before they declare war. With ordinary luck, they should do Gear Up this turn, Fleet to Pearl the next turn, some random options to get tension the next turn, with war appropriations J/F 42. With good luck, that schedule could happen one turn faster, with poor luck a turn or two slower, and with disastrous luck, who knows? Then, of course, if you wait for them to declare war, they could roll nothing but high numbers on the It's War chart. Relying on that happening has never struck me as a good idea for the Axis. If they were unlucky this turn, they might not be able to pick Gear Up next turn; if that is the case, shift the whole schedule back one turn for each turn Gear Up is delayed.
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I thought I knew how to play this game....
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