Courtenay
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Joined: 11/12/2008
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A dispatch from Switzerland, analyzing the timing of the US entry into the war:
History:
M/A: Chit to Japan pool, DD's to CW, no chit, Burma Rd reopened, no chit, Reources to WA, chit moved (Ge)
M/J: Chit to Japan pool, Oil Embargo, chit moved (Ja).
J/A: Chit to Ge, Gear Up, chit moved (Ge)
S/O: Chit to Ge, Fleet to Pearl, chit moved (Ja), Lend Lease to WA, chit moved Ge
Thus we know that the US was desperate for tension M/A, and finally got enough M/J. The chit that moved from the Oil Embargo seems to have been a big one, since they moved a German chit for Gear up. Fleet to Pearl had to be picked, so that doesn't tell anyone anything, but the US still needed tension, and moved a German chit.
The Americans probably have enough tension in the pool for War Appropriations, but might not. I give them about a 75% chance of having enough tension. Everyone will find out this turn; if the US doesn't pick anything, they have enough tension.
Known Minimum Entry totals:
M/A: 24 Ja, 16 Ge Chit moved from German pool. Japanese tension was too low.
M/J: 31 Ja, Ge ? Chit moved from Japanese pool, both tensions >= 11.
J/A: 22 Ja, 22 Ge, Chit moved from German pool
S/O: 26 Ja, 27 Ge, Chits moved from both.
What this means for War Appropriations:
Those two chits have to be replaced, and a chit added to both pools, and probably one more. Maybe no more, maybe two or more. Since only one chit is being added N/D, War Appropriations is not being passed N/D. The US gets two chits J/F '42. They probably need three or, more likely, four, but could pick very well. It would have to be extremely well. If the Germans do not take Paris, I give the US about a 10% chance of picking War Appropriations J/F. The chance of picking War Appropriations goes up dramatically M/A; about 70% would be my guess.
What this means for declaring war?
The turn the US passes War Appropriations they will have 17 tension in both pools, and 34 entry. These are minimum figures; the actual totals will probably be a little higher. After the tension moves, the US will probably be on the 35/17 square against one country, or a 30% chance of war, and the 31/17 or 31/24 square for the other, a 20% or 0% chance. These are chances only a desperate US player would take. The US is not desperate, so the US will probably not declare war with these chances. If the Germans take Paris, that adds two chits to the Ge pool (probably; 1.8 chit move). This will move the US up to the 44/17 line, if they move the chit from War appropriations to the Japanese pool. This is a 50%, and is possible.
So the turn after the US passes War Appropriations, if the the Germans don't take Paris the US would have a low chance of declaring War the next turn, and a good one the turn thereafter. If the Germans do take Paris, the US will have a good chance any time after Vichy is declared. The US could attempt to declare war before the fall of Paris the turn after they pass War Appropriations, but their chances would not be good, and a failure would hurt, so they would probably not attempt to rescue the French. If the Germans don't take Paris in the turn after War Appropriations, the US will very likely try to declare war as soon as possible the next turn.
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I thought I knew how to play this game....
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RE: Folly a deux: AllenK vs Warspite1 AAR - 
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