thedoctorking
Posts: 2297
Joined: 4/29/2017 Status: offline
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I found the results of the attack on Riga, by the combined strength of 18th Army, surprisingly close. The final odds were exactly 2.00:1, just what was needed to take the city. Looking at the detailed battle results, a few things stand out. First, the Soviet commander, Ksenofontov, is second-rate: 5 Morale, 4 Infantry, 4 Initiative. He’s also a long way away, back in Pskov. This meant that the Soviets effectively got no bonus from leadership other than a 5 in 12 chance of making a morale roll – Morale is not affected by range. Also, the HQ could not send any support units to the fight, being more than five hexes distant. The only Soviet SU in the fight are the AA units assigned to the city itself. The Soviet units were also under different commands. One division was under 27th Army, which was Ksenofontov’s parent formation, and only suffered a 3% subtraction for divided command, though it was additionally penalized for not being under the lowest possible command level. This is a feature of the very earliest turns until the corps HQ’s are automatically disbanded, something that Soviet players often ignore in the interest of putting their units under superior commanders at the Army level. The other Soviet division, the 90th Rifle, was under a different corps and suffered a 16% subtraction. On the other hand, the extremely powerful German artillery and air support had a limited effect. I think this is a result of the terrain effects. In open country, 79 bombing missions plus a half-dozen artillery SU would have disrupted far more than 208 elements of the defenders. If you look at the final CV totals, it is 2640 to 1316. The Soviets took somewhat less than a 50% hit from their initial CV, probably because they made their morale roll, failed their infantry roll (almost impossible to make at that distance) and then suffered considerable reductions from German artillery, air support and (most importantly) casualties (Soviet casualties are increased during the first several turns as part of the initial surprise effect). The Germans apparently made one of their two rolls. Their commander, Model, is the best the Germans have with 9 morale, 9 infantry, but that still gives him only a 4/9 chance of making both rolls. They suffered a small reduction from their limited casualties and had a few elements disrupted, by that city-based AAA and maybe intrinsic artillery in the Soviet divisions. I loaded the game up as the Axis, tried to duplicate the German moves, and made the attack five times. The Soviet defenses held three out of five times, meaning that there is something going on here that I don’t understand. Results ranged from 3.49:1 (easy Axis victory) to 1:1.29 (humiliating defeat). As foreshadowed, the Soviet defenders did retreat to the still-Soviet controlled hex to the northeast, instead of taking ship for Leningrad, leaving them almost certainly doomed next turn.
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