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RE: Always with them negative waves... Aaffins/Cheesesteak v. RADM Yamaguchi

 
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RE: Always with them negative waves... Aaffins/Cheesest... - 9/20/2019 9:15:49 PM   
aaffins

 

Posts: 254
Joined: 3/7/2010
From: Richmond, VA
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quote:

ORIGINAL: CaptBeefheart

Tactical McClellan, Strategic Sherman? That might bode very well later if you can get him to over commit. Hans is right about Lord Howe.

SNLFs are basically battalions, right? I'd think he would have to bring some followup army units to take Suva. I've noticed from AARs that some people try to track IJA divisions. Any idea if any are available in SoPac?

Cheers,
CB


Typical AV for an SNLF is 60 AV, so it's really halfway between a battalion and a regiment if you're looking at typical US Army unit sizes. So reinforced marine battalion or understrength regiment depending on your viewpoint. I think of the four he has on Fiji as a reinforced brigade.

I'm definitely keeping an eye on IJA divisions. As someone who typically plays Japan I'm familiar with how important their commitment can be. So far we have not seen any in SoPac. In fact, we got some SigInt the 48th ID was moving to Mersing a few days ago. I'm interested if that's a move to try to finish Singapore or set up a move into Burma, or somewhere to the South. Singapore is hanging by a thread and he has a 6:1 AV advantage so I wouldn't think he'd need another division, but it seems odd to unload at Mersing when you could use a larger port like Batavia or Saigon as a transshipment point.

(in reply to CaptBeefheart)
Post #: 151
RE: Always with them negative waves... Aaffins/Cheesest... - 9/21/2019 2:36:00 PM   
Cheesesteak


Posts: 301
Joined: 11/8/2010
From: Richmond, VA
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quote:

ORIGINAL: aaffins


quote:

ORIGINAL: CaptBeefheart

Tactical McClellan, Strategic Sherman? That might bode very well later if you can get him to over commit. Hans is right about Lord Howe.

SNLFs are basically battalions, right? I'd think he would have to bring some followup army units to take Suva. I've noticed from AARs that some people try to track IJA divisions. Any idea if any are available in SoPac?

Cheers,
CB


Typical AV for an SNLF is 60 AV, so it's really halfway between a battalion and a regiment if you're looking at typical US Army unit sizes. So reinforced marine battalion or understrength regiment depending on your viewpoint. I think of the four he has on Fiji as a reinforced brigade.

I'm definitely keeping an eye on IJA divisions. As someone who typically plays Japan I'm familiar with how important their commitment can be. So far we have not seen any in SoPac. In fact, we got some SigInt the 48th ID was moving to Mersing a few days ago. I'm interested if that's a move to try to finish Singapore or set up a move into Burma, or somewhere to the South. Singapore is hanging by a thread and he has a 6:1 AV advantage so I wouldn't think he'd need another division, but it seems odd to unload at Mersing when you could use a larger port like Batavia or Saigon as a transshipment point.


We can't rule out a trixy IJN attempt to counter SigInt.

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Post #: 152
RE: Always with them negative waves... Aaffins/Cheesest... - 9/21/2019 3:04:09 PM   
BBfanboy


Posts: 18046
Joined: 8/4/2010
From: Winnipeg, MB
Status: offline 		.





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Post #: 153
RE: Always with them negative waves... Aaffins/Cheesest... - 9/21/2019 5:33:38 PM   
aaffins

 

Posts: 254
Joined: 3/7/2010
From: Richmond, VA
Status: offline 		He definitely plays SigInt games. Various AA units have been loaded on AKs moving to Cooktown for the last month.

That said, we've seen various units moving to locations in Malaysia a lot the last few days, so I'm more inclined to think something is up.


(in reply to BBfanboy)
Post #: 154
RE: Always with them negative waves... Aaffins/Cheesest... - 9/22/2019 11:17:40 PM   
aaffins

 

Posts: 254
Joined: 3/7/2010
From: Richmond, VA
Status: offline 		SigInt today says both the 48th and 16th Divisions are being shipped to Georgetown...kind of odd destination to me. Perhaps he is playing games.

(in reply to aaffins)
Post #: 155
RE: Always with them negative waves... Aaffins/Cheesest... - 9/24/2019 2:24:29 PM   
Cheesesteak


Posts: 301
Joined: 11/8/2010
From: Richmond, VA
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

.







+1 for being right
+10 for LotR reference



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Post #: 156
RE: Always with them negative waves... Aaffins/Cheesest... - 9/24/2019 2:50:53 PM   
Cheesesteak


Posts: 301
Joined: 11/8/2010
From: Richmond, VA
Status: offline 		In an series of all-day meetings, so updates have been slow.

China finally woke up. A 3300 AV strong hammer fell near Loyang, overwhelming a holding force of Chinese farmers and street urchins (~300AV). It seems he is following the new norm of hitting in the north, splitting the Chinese, then wiping them out. The Burma road is still open, though. We will take the small "500 supply a day" victory on this front. Every point into China will help it hold.

Additionally, SigInt gave away a pending NoPac move.

Non-SoPac theaters are finally lighting up.



_____________________________

"Knowledge is Good" - Emil Faber

(in reply to Cheesesteak)
Post #: 157
RE: Always with them negative waves... Aaffins/Cheesest... - 9/25/2019 2:45:13 AM   
BBfanboy


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From: Winnipeg, MB
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Cheesesteak

In an series of all-day meetings, so updates have been slow.



Oh, good! So you caught up on your sleep and can work on WITP-AE turns all night!

_____________________________

No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

(in reply to Cheesesteak)
Post #: 158
RE: Always with them negative waves... Aaffins/Cheesest... - 9/25/2019 3:19:36 AM   
aaffins

 

Posts: 254
Joined: 3/7/2010
From: Richmond, VA
Status: offline 		Tell me more about this fantasy world in which VAC actually works on turns, please, BBfanboy.

Apparently our opponent was awoken with thoughts of dread at 2:30 this morning that he had made an error. I presume this is how the conversation went.

RA Yamaguchi: Mother of God! Somebody a mistake, somebody made a big GD mistake (yes, that is a combined Hunt for Red October and Starship Troopers quote, what of it? Cheeseteak is not the only one around here with questionable movie taste)
Geisha: It ok, Mr. Guch, it ok
RAY: No, get me Yamamoto on the phone, right now!
Geisha: You mean your boss?
RAY: No, damnit, he's not my boss in this war!!!
Geisha: ???
RAY: We must cable the Americans, we need to turn back time!!!
Geisha: You want me to get Jon Bon Jovi on the line?
RAY: Is that the name of the Allied Supreme Leader?

At least we know he's committed to the game.

Anyway, some more interesting movement on major IJA formations today. The 2nd and 38th Inf. Divisions, creme de la creme of the IJA so to speak, landed along with 16th Army HQ at Semarang on Java. It seems probable that he is going to mop up the DEI and Singapore before pursuing serious combat ops elsewhere. I'm not complaining although he seems on target to have them handled by the end of February which I think is solid efficiency on his part, but does give us some time to get organized.

Seems to be some sort of carrier activity near Wake. We've evac'd everyone but the base force and PBYs at this point, but with all the activity from reinforcing and evacuating we're hoping he's fooled.

SigInt says we have a convoy moving to Tavoy. Dispatched some old RN C Class CLs to see if they can get lucky. He has air superiority over lower Burma, but no troop movement as yet north of Tavoy.

In response to expected attack in the Aleutians we are sending 138th Inf Regt to Adak to join the Combat Eng. regiment already there. That'll give us 200 AV behind some decent forts. Should be tough if he doesn't bring a serious invasion force.

Main CV group is off South tip of South Island (NZ), heading to Oz for gas. Yorktown is moving south towards Palmyra.

SigInt indicates 91st Nav Guard unit at Lord Howe Island. That would make sense but our daily B-17 raids from Sydney are causing tons of support disables but minimal combat squads disabled. Moving the Aussie CAs closer for a potential bombardment mission.

(in reply to BBfanboy)
Post #: 159
RE: Always with them negative waves... Aaffins/Cheesest... - 9/25/2019 3:33:14 AM   
BBfanboy


Posts: 18046
Joined: 8/4/2010
From: Winnipeg, MB
Status: offline 		I thought Cher sang "If I Could Turn Back Time"?

EDIT: BTW, bombing and bombardment nearly always hit the support troops and engineers first - the combat troops are "dug in". Eventually you will start to get combat disablements. Right now they are just getting fatigued and disrupted.

< Message edited by BBfanboy -- 9/25/2019 3:35:04 AM >

_____________________________

No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

(in reply to aaffins)
Post #: 160
RE: Always with them negative waves... Aaffins/Cheesest... - 9/25/2019 3:36:42 AM   
aaffins

 

Posts: 254
Joined: 3/7/2010
From: Richmond, VA
Status: offline 		Perhaps as a Canadian you missed the proliferation of this awful advertisement:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1vhoaORzYoU

(in reply to BBfanboy)
Post #: 161
RE: Always with them negative waves... Aaffins/Cheesest... - 9/25/2019 4:02:59 AM   
BBfanboy


Posts: 18046
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From: Winnipeg, MB
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quote:

ORIGINAL: aaffins

Perhaps as a Canadian you missed the proliferation of this awful advertisement:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1vhoaORzYoU

I wish I had, but I had to see what you were referring to - ick!

_____________________________

No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

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Post #: 162
RE: Always with them negative waves... Aaffins/Cheesest... - 9/25/2019 3:22:00 PM   
Cheesesteak


Posts: 301
Joined: 11/8/2010
From: Richmond, VA
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quote:

ORIGINAL: aaffins

Tell me more about this fantasy world in which VAC actually works on turns, please, BBfanboy.


Let the record show I've invited you over multiple times with the promise of drinks to fix my WITP version issue, and you're too lazy to drive the 1.9 miles.

I can't talk too much though, as I'll be on vacation for the next 2 1/2 weeks.


Don't know if the thread title keeps him at bay, but credit to CR for encouraging a Burma defense. While the position there could rapidly deteriorate, we have now created our first series of real obstacles. If/When Rangoon's forts hit 4, we can start turning it into Helm's Deep.




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"Knowledge is Good" - Emil Faber

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Post #: 163
RE: Always with them negative waves... Aaffins/Cheesest... - 9/26/2019 5:16:58 AM   
CaptBeefheart


Posts: 2301
Joined: 7/4/2003
From: Seoul, Korea
Status: offline 		What was the esteemed Japanese admiral's FUBAR?

Cheers,
CB

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Beer, because barley makes lousy bread.

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Post #: 164
RE: Always with them negative waves... Aaffins/Cheesest... - 9/26/2019 9:27:32 PM   
aaffins

 

Posts: 254
Joined: 3/7/2010
From: Richmond, VA
Status: offline 		We don't know although he claims it involves CVs getting hit. There is some sort of carrier force 7 hexes from wake, my guess would be he forgot to set his CAP properly or did not skirt dive bomber range.

(in reply to CaptBeefheart)
Post #: 165
RE: Always with them negative waves... Aaffins/Cheesest... - 9/27/2019 2:53:00 PM   
Cheesesteak


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From: Richmond, VA
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quote:

ORIGINAL: aaffins

We don't know although he claims it involves CVs getting hit. There is some sort of carrier force 7 hexes from wake, my guess would be he forgot to set his CAP properly or did not skirt dive bomber range.


Yep. Obviously if this becomes a consistent thing, we'll raise it as a concern. Everybody deaerves a Mulligan now and then.


_____________________________

"Knowledge is Good" - Emil Faber

(in reply to aaffins)
Post #: 166
RE: Always with them negative waves... Aaffins/Cheesest... - 9/27/2019 3:07:40 PM   
BBfanboy


Posts: 18046
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Cheesesteak


quote:

ORIGINAL: aaffins

We don't know although he claims it involves CVs getting hit. There is some sort of carrier force 7 hexes from wake, my guess would be he forgot to set his CAP properly or did not skirt dive bomber range.


Yep. Obviously if this becomes a consistent thing, we'll raise it as a concern. Everybody deaerves a Mulligan now and then.


Well ... maybe, if you think you might need to ask for one at some future date.

My own view is that re-dos should only be given if there were technical issues (the game did not run properly - very unlikely) or the opponent is a neophyte playing an experienced player. Otherwise, war does not forgive stupid mistakes, no matter how late at night it was when the tired commander gave the orders or failed to give orders.

_____________________________

No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

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Post #: 167
RE: Always with them negative waves... Aaffins/Cheesest... - 9/28/2019 4:47:04 PM   
aaffins

 

Posts: 254
Joined: 3/7/2010
From: Richmond, VA
Status: offline 		Things are starting to kick off a bit as we enter February.

That intel about the 16th and 48th Divisions heading to Georgetown was correct...sort of, they landed at Moulmein this turn. The RN CLs we sent out a few turns ago are in position and will attack the invasion force next turn.

He also captured Lashio with paras. Should be easy to dislodge them, but he could fly in av support, which would be problematic.

We have about 1,000 AV between Pegu and Rangoon, so I think we'll be able to stop this initial force. Rangoon is 24% of way to Lvl 4 forts, so I'm thinking we forward deploy the bulk of our troops to Pegu (Size 3 fort also) to force the shock attack across the river. Would the gallery agree with that call?

No activity today in the Pacific, but SigInt says the 7th Division is moving to Pago Pago. We just finished unloading another USMC Def Bn. there, so we're up to about 100 AV. Moving a SCTF into position to try to hit an invasion force.



(in reply to BBfanboy)
Post #: 168
RE: Always with them negative waves... Aaffins/Cheesest... - 9/28/2019 5:10:26 PM   
Alfred

 

Posts: 6685
Joined: 9/28/2006
Status: offline 		1000 AV per se means nothing.  You have to consider the quality of the units.

The IJA 16th and 48th divs are qualitatively far better than anything you start off with in Burma.  To these divs the units attached to the 15th Army need to be factored in.  They too are of superior quality to what you have.  Don't assume the raw Allied AV will be higher than the enemy's.  Once the shooting starts, the superior quality of the enemy LCUs will quickly result in disproportionate fire casualties.

The fact is that by bringing across significant reinforcements to the 15th Army, the enemy will overrun Burma, unless you can obtain air superiority and continue to sea lift in substantial supply.  Don't rely on fortification levels to save you.  They are too easily dismantled if enemy combat engineers are employed.

Alfred

(in reply to aaffins)
Post #: 169
RE: Always with them negative waves... Aaffins/Cheesest... - 9/28/2019 6:33:39 PM   
aaffins

 

Posts: 254
Joined: 3/7/2010
From: Richmond, VA
Status: offline 		Yes, my 1,000 AV is somewhat illusory because of the low quality of the units. However, we do have the 17th Indian Division assembled, which is a little bit better quality than the Burmese units and we will be fighting within Burma Command's HQ radius. I'm hoping those factors will help this force perform slightly better than abysmal.

I don't have any illusions about being able to hold Burma long term, my hope is to stop this initial attack and force him to commit additional forces. He appears to have deployed the 15th Army elsewhere, Malaysia I think. If we could force him to deploy 3-4 divisions to take Burma that would be a success to me.

(in reply to Alfred)
Post #: 170
RE: Always with them negative waves... Aaffins/Cheesest... - 9/29/2019 8:28:31 AM   
GetAssista

 

Posts: 2732
Joined: 9/19/2009
Status: offline 		Allies' best bet in the initial Burma is to put up some resistance in good terrain. Pegu is open. So a shock attack by 2 Japanese IDs will most likely overwhelm and decimate whatever you can scramble there. And Rangoon is not an obstacle, can be bypassed and grinded down a bit later. Japanese immediate goal is to severe Burma road, capturing Rangoon can wait some.

(in reply to aaffins)
Post #: 171
RE: Always with them negative waves... Aaffins/Cheesest... - 9/29/2019 1:25:03 PM   
aaffins

 

Posts: 254
Joined: 3/7/2010
From: Richmond, VA
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: GetAssista

Allies' best bet in the initial Burma is to put up some resistance in good terrain. Pegu is open. So a shock attack by 2 Japanese IDs will most likely overwhelm and decimate whatever you can scramble there. And Rangoon is not an obstacle, can be bypassed and grinded down a bit later. Japanese immediate goal is to severe Burma road, capturing Rangoon can wait some.


That's a great point, particularly considering he's brought a good amount of artillery support (2x FA Reg, 2x Mortar Bn) beyond the organic advantage he would have with his two divisions. Back to Rangoon it will be.

(in reply to GetAssista)
Post #: 172
RE: Always with them negative waves... Aaffins/Cheesest... - 9/29/2019 1:53:14 PM   
aaffins

 

Posts: 254
Joined: 3/7/2010
From: Richmond, VA
Status: offline 		2/2 and 2/3 brought a couple of nights of action on the Burmese coast. He does not have a supplied Air HQ in theater yet, so Japanese response to all the below attacks is ineffectual level bombing by Betties.

On 2/2 MTBs operating from Rangoon ran into his main landing force. Opponent continues to really favor the mega TFs - no less than 34 AK/AP escorted by six subchasers. Unfortunately our boys did not land any hits, but we did force two collisions.
Our RN CL force did not get at the landing force because they were intercepted by a covering force of 7 IJN DDs. Much gunfire was exchanged to little effect.

On 2/3 our MTBs ran into 4x CAs near Tavoy and we lost 3 of 4. A second RN SCTF with 2 CAs and 2 modern CLs ran into 10 IJN DDs (different ships from the previous night) and sank two. We also got a Kyushu-class xAK that had been involved in a collision the previous night. Unfortunately we'll most likely lose the DD Isis.

On the ground he appears to have flown a second unit into Lashio, likely AV support and now has Oscars operating. A sweep by a squadron of the AVG bagged a couple.

Blenheims from Mandalay hit the airfield he's operating the transports from (Chiang Mai) and destroyed 4 KI-56/7s on the ground.




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(in reply to aaffins)
Post #: 173
RE: Always with them negative waves... Aaffins/Cheesest... - 9/29/2019 2:18:17 PM   
aaffins

 

Posts: 254
Joined: 3/7/2010
From: Richmond, VA
Status: offline 		Action in other theaters:

PI/DEI
Last unit on Luzon was exterminated by IJA.
He still can't crack resistance at Bandoeng. He's wasted a lot of troops there.
Also still can't finish Singapore, although he's very close. This likely means all the ships he's sending into the IO are transiting around Sumatra.

Australia
4x IJN CA and 4x BB hammered Darwin again. Presumably an invasion here is coming soon. Tons of naval activity around Koepang, believe he's using AKEs to rearm there.
CAs Australia and Louisville hit Lord Howe. B-17s have been bombing for a week, so I think we've got the base pretty effectively suppressed. He's detecting some of my ASW patrols along the coast, but I think that's sub launched search planes, not search a/c from Lord Howe. Trying to use a B-17 unit to perform recon, but it's not effective so lack good intel.

Fiji
First attack at Suva went well for us - 1 to 2 with no fort reduction and 79 squads destroyed/disabled vs. 15 for us. He's got 6 SNLFs. He followed that up with a bombardment by 11 DDs. Main issue remains supply, we have just enough for a few more days of combat. Still can't repair our PBYs to conduct air ops (they were all damaged in a KB raid). A freighter is 3 hexes away but nearest air search is from Pago Pago so we're just hoping he doesn't have anything blockading the port.

China
Action has really picked up here. Five divisions from the Chengchow force knocked us out of Loyang on the first attack. He also assembled the bulk of his armor into one group and used that to clear Tsiatoso. In the south he committed several unrestricted units to clear the road to Nanning and is on the move. Still no movement on the Changsha front, but I think at this point it's pretty obvious our strategy of not moving and hoping he forgets about China is not going to work, so I've started actually arranging the Chinese units to offer some resistance and take advantage of terrain where possible.

(in reply to aaffins)
Post #: 174
RE: Always with them negative waves... Aaffins/Cheesest... - 10/1/2019 3:08:18 AM   
aaffins

 

Posts: 254
Joined: 3/7/2010
From: Richmond, VA
Status: offline 		Nothing earth shattering the last two days. He continues to heavily patrol with surface ships between Rangoon and Tavoy. I'm tempted to send in Royal Sovereign, but with a weak escort against 4 CAs I'm not sure that's a smart play. Would be nice if my torpedo planes from Rangoon would fly. Indomitable is in the neighborhood, might be able to get a shot in if he strays too far north.

We were able to get a few hundred supplies into Suva at the cost of an xAK and an AM. Ground units are fully supplied for the moment, but base is still low. One PBY operational. Something KB looking is 3 hexes south, the plane count is on the low side (110 planes) so I'm wondering if maybe he split the KB up?

We have something mini KB looking off Koepang. Last turn they appeared to be heading for Western Aus, but they turned back. Not sure what that's all about.

He captured Wake with the 90th Inf Regt.

Either he's incredibly diligent about SigInt countermeasures or it's not nearly as accurate as I thought. Have seen quite a few reports of units moving to Tavoy, so guessing he's bringing more to secure Burma. Apparently the 4th ID is also moving to Tricomalee. That seems far fetched considering he hasn't even secured Singapore, but I suppose it's possible.

(in reply to aaffins)
Post #: 175
RE: Always with them negative waves... Aaffins/Cheesest... - 10/1/2019 10:14:09 AM   
BBfanboy


Posts: 18046
Joined: 8/4/2010
From: Winnipeg, MB
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: aaffins

Nothing earth shattering the last two days. He continues to heavily patrol with surface ships between Rangoon and Tavoy. I'm tempted to send in Royal Sovereign, but with a weak escort against 4 CAs I'm not sure that's a smart play. Would be nice if my torpedo planes from Rangoon would fly. Indomitable is in the neighborhood, might be able to get a shot in if he strays too far north.

We were able to get a few hundred supplies into Suva at the cost of an xAK and an AM. Ground units are fully supplied for the moment, but base is still low. One PBY operational. Something KB looking is 3 hexes south, the plane count is on the low side (110 planes) so I'm wondering if maybe he split the KB up?

We have something mini KB looking off Koepang. Last turn they appeared to be heading for Western Aus, but they turned back. Not sure what that's all about.

He captured Wake with the 90th Inf Regt.

Either he's incredibly diligent about SigInt countermeasures or it's not nearly as accurate as I thought. Have seen quite a few reports of units moving to Tavoy, so guessing he's bringing more to secure Burma. Apparently the 4th ID is also moving to Tricomalee. That seems far fetched considering he hasn't even secured Singapore, but I suppose it's possible.

Old BBs are dead meat against cruisers and DDs armed with the Long Lance. The IJN has good FP search at night so their TFs can find yours and they have the advantage in spotting, which gives them first shots in a battle.

The mini-KB you saw was probably hunting refugees from the north heading for Australian ports.

4th ID prep for Trincomalee is quite likely - it takes about 75 days to prep 100%. In the meantime, while Japan has the landing bonus he can use 4th ID anywhere he wants. It won't get the combat advantage of prep at other targets but that ID is strong enough that it should succeed anyway. But the choice of Trincomalee is interesting - that hex has good defensive terrain, unlike Colombo. If you are considering resisting a Ceylon invasion, concentrating your main defence in Trincomalee would be a good idea.

BTW, it is hard for the reader to know how you are doing without knowing the game date - it should be at the top of each post.

_____________________________

No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

(in reply to aaffins)
Post #: 176
RE: Always with them negative waves... Aaffins/Cheesest... - 10/1/2019 11:35:18 AM   
aaffins

 

Posts: 254
Joined: 3/7/2010
From: Richmond, VA
Status: offline 		It's 2/6/42, I'll make sure that's in each post, thanks.

(in reply to BBfanboy)
Post #: 177
RE: Always with them negative waves... Aaffins/Cheesest... - 10/1/2019 10:44:15 PM   
aaffins

 

Posts: 254
Joined: 3/7/2010
From: Richmond, VA
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy
4th ID prep for Trincomalee is quite likely - it takes about 75 days to prep 100%. In the meantime, while Japan has the landing bonus he can use 4th ID anywhere he wants. It won't get the combat advantage of prep at other targets but that ID is strong enough that it should succeed anyway. But the choice of Trincomalee is interesting - that hex has good defensive terrain, unlike Colombo. If you are considering resisting a Ceylon invasion, concentrating your main defence in Trincomalee would be a good idea.


The SigInt actually says this is a move on Tricomalee:

5/4th Division is loaded on a Japanese CM moving to Trincomalee.

That said, my theory is that he's using plausible destinations for his major convoys that are on his way to actual destinations to confuse SigInt.
For example:
1. On 1/23 we got intel that 48th ID was moving to Mersing.
2. On the 26th that it was moving to Georgetown (presumably using waypoints to circumnavigate Sumatra)
3. 27th we got word again that it's headed to Georgetown (with 16th ID)
4. On 1/30 an engineer regiment in the convoy shows up as moving to Tavoy
5. On 2/1 the big landing at Moulmein happens

(Aside: this was a pain in the rear to assemble because of my lack of dating the AAR, lesson learned, cheers BBfanboy)

So to me that looks like he only uses the real destination once he gets close.

With that in mind perhaps the 4th ID is being sent to Burma but he's using Tricomalee as destination until he gets around Sumatra. Similarly, we got intel 7th ID was moving to Pago Pago a few days ago. It could simply have been transiting to Truk, Rabaul or New Caledonia, but he used PP as the destination. Certainly makes it difficult to use SigInt, although his propensity for massive TFs also increases the likelihood of them showing up on there.

(in reply to BBfanboy)
Post #: 178
RE: Always with them negative waves... Aaffins/Cheesest... - 10/2/2019 3:05:38 AM   
CaptBeefheart


Posts: 2301
Joined: 7/4/2003
From: Seoul, Korea
Status: offline 		I've heard some dastardly JFBs will set a destination somewhere (destinations, not waypoints, show up in SigInt as far as I know), and then set a waypoint near or at the actual intended destination. There seems to be some of that going on, although if you're going to do that, I'd think you'd set the fake destination somewhere far away, like Oosthaven, and not set up a fake Georgetown destination when the actual landing spot is as close as Moulmein. Either this is sloppy play, or it's brilliant. You'll find out eventually.

Cheers,
CB


_____________________________

Beer, because barley makes lousy bread.

(in reply to aaffins)
Post #: 179
RE: Always with them negative waves... Aaffins/Cheesest... - 10/3/2019 11:34:54 PM   
aaffins

 

Posts: 254
Joined: 3/7/2010
From: Richmond, VA
Status: offline 		Some more very interesting happenings today!

First backing up to the 2/7/42 Turn, only one noteworthy event:
He got the 34th JNAF AF Unit into Raoul I. Unlucky for us as we had the NZ CLs nearby. He capped the base on 2/8 so he'll air coverage over the whole area tomorrow (2/9) most likely.

Now the 2/8/42 turn:
Adak I. was hit by this:
A6M2 Zero x 48
B5N1 Kate x 17
B5N2 Kate x 92
The raid itself was largely inconsequential, but we're struggling to discern what mix of CVs this was. His TF is 9 hexes away, hence the lack of Vals. I think this could be the Kaga + all the CVLs, but could it be he's operating two CVs up here? Or this could easily be the bulk of the KB. Hopefully we'll find out more tomorrow. We had mentioned sending the 138th US Army Regiment to Adak awhile back - it just left Seattle so is not in danger. No other shipping in the neighborhood although we have had a good amount up here lately. If this is just a raid he's likely to end up disappointed. If it's more that'll be interesting.

Suva was hit by 4 CAs and 11 DDs, followed by a ground attack. He got 3 to 1 odds, but we held out. He suffered 70+ disabled/destroyed squads again while our losses were light, so I think the odds were down to the disruption rather than us starting to crack. Supplies remain a problem, but the LCUs are all fully supplied and we have PBY coverage now. That shows us both TFs plus a possible small CV force moving back to Noumea. That presents another question - is that actually the KB just poor air search, did he split the KB? Again, hope we find out more next turn.

He landed at Horn I. with an SNLF and 2 SNLF Cos. but got thrashed.

Singapore fell.

No major developments in Burma. SigInt also shows the 21st ID moving to Tricomalee. Per previous post it still seems probable this is deception and the 21st and 4th IDs are headed for Moulmein, unless he's taken all his carriers out of SoPac and he's about to launch a surprise attack on Ceylon. That seems farfectched...even if he did that he'd be incredibly spread out.





(in reply to CaptBeefheart)
Post #: 180
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