RE: Axis Only. Ronnie vs Composer99.

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RE: Axis Only. Ronnie vs Composer99. - 1/26/2020 4:54:42 PM

Courtenay

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Joined: 11/12/2008
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You might not have a good attack in southern China this impulse; it looks like you might have to spend the impulse moving units forward.

What does France look like? He had a strong French line, except that the hex north of Lille was completely empty. He had to do something about that, which would weaken his line elsewhere. If the Germans have an unflipped HQ, a half-flipped result this impulse is not that bad; you use the HQ to reorganize the flipped units. You are likely to get one more impulse. Two, while possible, is not likely.

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Post #: 271

RE: Axis Only. Ronnie vs Composer99. - 1/26/2020 5:25:34 PM

rkr1958

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Joined: 5/21/2009
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Turn 5. May/June 1940. Axis #7 (Pre-Impulse Assessment) The Western Front.

So far most of the heavy fighting on the Western Front has been between the Germans and the British. I really haven't had a chance to hurt the French army. One interesting consequent on focusing on the British and the BEF is that the northern coast of France is wide open for the Germans simply to march into and take.

As I argued a few posts back (impulse weather post), I don't feel this is the impulse to make the high risk attacker flip attacks. Even Lille, where I could get three stacks adjacent to it, I couldn't do much better than +3 or +4 on the assault table. And against the 3-stack defending Lillie, a +4 assault gives only a 15% chance of succeeding. So even if I expected this to be my last fine weather impulse of the turn, that attack is off the table. It's just too bad of odds.

I did look at blitz attack against the French 3-stack in hex D. Assuming offensive and defensive ground and HQ support I arrived at odds of around +6 on the blitz table. This gave me a PWIN of 64% but with only a 36% chance of shattering the defenders and an expected number of defenders killed less than 1/2. Also, there was only a 21% chance of remaining fully organized and a 34% chance of remaining 1/2 organized (i.e., 45% chance of all surviving attackers flipping).

I even considered an assault to take one or two Maginot line hexes. The best odds I could get were around +2 assault, which against a single defender would given a PWIN of 45% but almost guarantee all surviving attackers were flipped.

The bottom line to all this was this was not the time to make these types of attacks and risk massive flips. I'd rather use maneuver in order to force the French to react or risk the Germans pushing along the coast or even making a play against the single French corps hold Paris.

So here's what I've decided to do this impulse. The German 3-stack east of Calais will occupy that city. Germany will airdrop into Boulogne and the German 3-stack now in Calais, which includes a mech corps, will join in the attack if the French include the notionals in Boulogne. I doubt they will, but if they do the attack will be a Blitz with an opportunity of a breakthrough into Le Havre. Though such a breakthrough would thin the German line along Calais-Boulogne-Le Havre way too much for my liking. So I'd probably not exploit the breakthrough if the French included the Boulogne notionals, which I don't think they will.

The French have two organized fighter units, the first in hex D and the second in hex E. The one in hex D could intercept the airborne drop and the one in E could only intercept if it flew CAP. I don't think that's likely, but I'll (have to) ask my opponent if he wishes to fly CAP. I'll have to ask in such a way as not to give my airdrop plan away.

This leaves the French fighter in hex D, which could intercept. I will ground strike hex D with the German artillery division directly to the east and I will ground strike hex F with the organized Ju 87B (5 Tac) plane. I believe this will force my opponent to fly the French fighter in D to defend against the airstrike in F. This fighter will then be intercepted by the one remaining organized German fighter in the same hex as the German arty division.

All this leaves one German plane (LND2 w/4 TAC) organized. I will use von Bock to reorganize the artillery division and fighter for use next impulse. I will also have an organized von Rundsted HQ-A to provide +2 HQ support if necessary next impulse.

Attachment (1)

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Ronnie

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Post #: 272

RE: Axis Only. Ronnie vs Composer99. - 1/26/2020 5:33:59 PM

rkr1958

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Turn 5. May/June 1940. Axis #7 (Pre-Impulse Assessment). Northern/Central China.

My plans here are fairly simple: (1) strat bomb the Chinese oil in Chentgu. It's safe to assume that the Chinese will intercept. So, assuming the Japanese bomber, which will be escorted by the long range zero, gets through, this gives them a 10% chance of knocking out the only Chinese oil point. Low odds, but catastrophic for the Chinese Japan succeeds.

(2) Clear out Ichang in order to free up those troops to push north to defend against the encroaching communists.

(3) Shore up defense against the encroaching communists and wait for reinforcements from the south.

Also, I feel the Soviets are up to something. I feel they're planning to attack Japan, so I want to free up an HQ and some troops to bolster defenses there.

Attachment (1)

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Ronnie

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Post #: 273

RE: Axis Only. Ronnie vs Composer99. - 1/26/2020 5:41:09 PM

rkr1958

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Turn 5. May/June 1940. Axis #7 (Pre-Impulse Assessment). Southern China.

What to do here? At worse, I could have a 1 out of 5 shot of eliminating Chaing. If I wait, then I feel my opponent will move a 3rd unit (i.e., div) in with Chaing and I'll lose that opportunity. Forget about the weather.

Of course it's a non-brainer if the Japanese manage to take out the Chinese oil point (10% chance).

Also, Chaing's chance of survival, as well as Japan's PWIN, would increase significantly if my opponent chooses to fight on the blitz versus assault; but I expect him to choose assault. Though why, I don't know.

I've decided to take the shot (i.e., go for Chaing) no matter the outcome of the ground strike (2 Tac factors). I'm not sure when, or if, I'll ever get this chance again.

As I wrote in the screen cap, "It's time to make hay while the sun shines."

Don't you just love this game!

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Ronnie

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Post #: 274

RE: Axis Only. Ronnie vs Composer99. - 1/26/2020 8:01:15 PM

Centuur

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I would ignore the Soviets, if I were playing the Japanese.

If you withdraw units from China, you are reacting to your opponent. In early game, one should only react to your opponent if they do something. The presence of the enemy on the border isn't enough to react IMHO.

Let the Soviets declare war on Japan. That's good for US entry. But keep an HQ and a good INF in China on the raillines to respond immediately if Uncle Joe is stupid enough to go for a two front war.

Don't forget to take that one hex on the Birma Road (with Hunan under it) which you don't control at the moment. It's very important for supply reasons...

I don't think it is wise to attack Chiang if both units are not disorganised. Don't fritter away your army.

Also: use Yamamoto to reorganise your STRAT bomber. Next impulse the Chinese FTR can't intercept on a second attempt to kill the Chinese oil...

In France, I think you have to consider to use your second offensive next turn. And build FTR's with Germany. You need an awful lot of those.
And whatever happens: make sure your PARA survives when it drops in Boulogne (because you are absolutely right to do so, but make sure a Stuka is in range with FTR support to prevent a French counterattack).

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Peter

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Post #: 275

RE: Axis Only. Ronnie vs Composer99. - 1/26/2020 8:29:26 PM

Courtenay

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Centuur

I would ignore the Soviets, if I were playing the Japanese.

If you withdraw units from China, you are reacting to your opponent. In early game, one should only react to your opponent if they do something. The presence of the enemy on the border isn't enough to react IMHO.

Let the Soviets declare war on Japan. That's good for US entry. But keep an HQ and a good INF in China on the raillines to respond immediately if Uncle Joe is stupid enough to go for a two front war.

Don't forget to take that one hex on the Birma Road (with Hunan under it) which you don't control at the moment. It's very important for supply reasons...

I don't think it is wise to attack Chiang if both units are not disorganised. Don't fritter away your army.

Also: use Yamamoto to reorganise your STRAT bomber. Next impulse the Chinese FTR can't intercept on a second attempt to kill the Chinese oil...

In France, I think you have to consider to use your second offensive next turn. And build FTR's with Germany. You need an awful lot of those.
And whatever happens: make sure your PARA survives when it drops in Boulogne (because you are absolutely right to do so, but make sure a Stuka is in range with FTR support to prevent a French counterattack).

I am not at all sure of using a second offensive.

I did not know what hex Peter was talking about, until I noticed that the hex two hexes west of Chansha was still Chinese owned. That should be taken this turn.

The attack on Chiang strikes me as reasonable, certainly given one flip.

The backpedaling of the Chinese is remarkable.

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RE: Axis Only. Ronnie vs Composer99. - 1/26/2020 9:37:47 PM

rkr1958

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Turn 5. May/June 1940. Axis #7.

[ax] No Dow's. No special actions. No alignments.

[al] No special actions - just giving the French and Chinese bloody noses.

[ax] We'll see who gets the bloody noses. It may not be them.

[ax] But I have to try.

[ax] Any allied CAP?

[al] No, I think the French fighters can reach everywhere they need to on the front.

[ax] copy that.

[ax] All three axis take land actions.

[ax] There's a 10% chance that this will be the last impulse of the turn.

[al] I daresay we both have our fingers crossed for that roll, albeit for opposing reasons.

[ax] Yes, I would like the turn continue and continue with fine weather (for now at least).

[ax] Naval Air. None.

[ax] Strategic Bombing. Japan hits the Chengtu (1 RP, 1 saved oil) with Nell Bomber (2 strat) escorted by A6M2 (Zero, 5 a2a). Do the Chinese wish to intercept?

[al] Yes.

[ax] Chengtu. Air-to-Air. (+2 axis, -2 allied).
Allied=14, no effect.
Axis=17, Chinese P-36A fighter shot down, PIL killed.

[al] So passes the Chinese Air Force.

[ax] Baa Baa Black Sheep.

[ax] Chengtu. Strategic Bombing.
Nell Bomber (2 strat)=5, no effect.

{I thought I was rebasing the bomber in range of being able to be reorg in order to have another go at that oil point. But I miscalculated and was unable to reorg the bomber at the end of my impulse.}

Japan. Strategic Bombing. Chengtu, China.

Attachment (1)

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Ronnie

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RE: Axis Only. Ronnie vs Composer99. - 1/26/2020 9:43:45 PM

rkr1958

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Turn 5. May/June 1940. Axis #7. (continued).

[ax] Japan. 1 Ground Strike.
(1) Ki-51 (2 Tac) vs Nationalist 2-stack w/Chiang & MIL.

[ax] Germany. 2 Ground Strikes.
(1) 150 arty div (4 factors) vs French 4-stack (FTR2, arm, mech, AT gun) southeast of Lille.
(2) Ju 87B (5 factors) vs French 3-stack (Georges, VII inf, 105 mm arty div)
French intercept instructions?

[al] FTR2 in the stack getting bombarded by artillery intercepts the Stuka.

[ax] copy that.

[ax] Germany intercepts French fighter (France 54, 31).

[ax] Air-to-Air. France 54,31. (-1 axis, +1 allied).
MS 406=12, Ju 87B Stuka cleared.
Bf 109 E-4=3, French MS 406 shot down, PIL survives.

[ax] Ground Strike. Ju 87B Stuka vs 3-stack in France[54,31].
(1) vs VII Inf=8, missed.
(2) vs Georges HQ-I=5, flipped.
(3) vs 105 mm Arty div=7, missed.

[ax] Ground Strike. 150mm arty vs 3-stack in France[53,30].
(1) vs XIV Mech=8, missed.
(2) vs Chevalier armor=4, flipped.
(3) vs 47 mm A/T div=1, flipped.

Germany. France. Ground Strikes.

Attachment (1)

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Ronnie

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Post #: 278

RE: Axis Only. Ronnie vs Composer99. - 1/26/2020 9:50:35 PM

rkr1958

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Turn 5. May/June 1940. Axis #7. (continued).

[ax] Ground Strike. Japan. Ki-51 (2 Tac) vs 2-stack in China 86,136.
(1) vs Chiang=5, missed.
(2) vs Chungking MIL=2, flipped.

[ax] Rail. Japan x 1. Gar army from Chengchow to Wuhan.

[ax] Rail. Germany. None.

[ax] Rail. Italy. Milan MIL from Tranato to Turin, Italy.

[ax] Airborne Drop. Germany. II Para corps drops on Boulogue, France.

[ax] 37 mm AA div in Lille can fire. Lowest 1 of 6. Do you wish to fire?

[al] No thanks to AA on the paradrop.

[ax] Airborne drop made. German ATR returns to Calais, France.

[ax] Boulogne. Potential Land Combat. Include notionals. If you do, Germany can choose Blitz at +15.7.

[al] No notional.

[ax] copy that.

Western Front. German Airborne Drop. Boulogne, France.

Attachment (1)

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Ronnie

(in reply to rkr1958)

Post #: 279

RE: Axis Only. Ronnie vs Composer99. - 1/26/2020 10:08:41 PM

rkr1958

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Turn 5. May/June 1940. Axis #7. (continued).

[ax] Japan Land Combat vs Chaing HQ-I & MIL.
China 86, 136.
Current odds are +6.667.
Japan has no air units in range to provide ground support.
You have 2 decisions.
(1) Does Chaing provide -0.5 HQ support?
(2) Assault or Blitz?

[ax] Also, Japan will have a +10.833 attack on Ichang too. Your choice of Assault of Blitz?

[ax] Attack on Chiang - Chiang will use HQ support. Blitz, please.
Attack on Ichang - Assault, please.

[ax] copy that.

[ax] Germany has a +20.5 Blitz (40.5:4) on the Lyons MIL in Belgium woods (54,32). You have a 3-factor 105 mm arty div that can provide 2 factors in ground support. Do you wish too?

[al] No, thank you.

[ax] By the way, the final odds on Ichang after Japanese ground support is 11.833. Still wish assault?

[al] Yes, please.

[ax] copy that.

[ax] Land Combat. Japan vs Nationalist 2-stack. China 86,136. +6.167 Blitz.
Fractional(167)=355, no. 2D10=13, Result=19.
Shattered result converted to retreat.
Japan loses Osaka MIL and flips 11th inf army, SNLF marine corps.

[al] Feeling pretty good about calling the blitz there. I would have lost both units on an assault.

[ax] I really wanted Chaing. :(

[ax] Nice call on the Blitz. :(

Japan. Southern China.

Attachment (1)

< Message edited by rkr1958 -- 1/27/2020 1:05:22 AM >

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Ronnie

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RE: Axis Only. Ronnie vs Composer99. - 1/26/2020 10:11:05 PM

rkr1958

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Turn 5. May/June 1940. Axis #7. (continued).

[ax] Land Combat. Japan vs Ichang. +11.388 Assault.
Fractional(833)=433, yes. 2D10=12. Result=24.
Chinese inf army and garrison lost.
Ichang falls. USE=5, no chit added.

Japan. China. Central/Northern China.

Attachment (1)

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Ronnie

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Post #: 281

RE: Axis Only. Ronnie vs Composer99. - 1/26/2020 10:15:51 PM

rkr1958

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Turn 5. May/June 1940. Axis #7. (concluded).

[ax] Land Combat (last). Germany vs MIL in Belgium woods. +20.5 Blitz.
Outcome is automatic. MIL eliminated with no attacker losses or flips.

[ax] Air Rebase. Germany Ju 88A1 from Brussels to Belgium Woods 54,32.

[ax] Air Rebase. Italy. Ca.135 from Tripoli, Libya to Cagliari, Sardinia.

[ax] Air Rebase. Japan. None.

[ax] HQ Reorg. Germany. von Bock. 150 mm arty div, FTR2 at Belgium 53,31.

[ax] I'll leave it there and pass the game file to you.

The Western Front.

Attachment (1)

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Ronnie

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Post #: 282

RE: Axis Only. Ronnie vs Composer99. - 1/26/2020 11:06:06 PM

Courtenay

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Not bad. You didn't get the oil, but you did kill the Chinese FTR, as well as 7 BPs of Chinese troops. The Axis air force had good luck this turn, to get itself up to slightly below average for the game. The ground strikes were also about average, although you did get the most important unit.

The Allies have been giving up terrain to save units, but China does not have an infinite amount of space to give up, and France does not have much space at all. You are happy killing French units for free.

One thing you did not do is clear the Chihkiang-Changsha rail line. That should be a high priority, because that will shortly become your major supply route.

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RE: Axis Only. Ronnie vs Composer99. - 1/26/2020 11:28:11 PM

brian brian

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The Chinese FTR accomplishes far more by simply not intercepting until 1942. Otherwise it ties down the Zero every time Japanese bombers fly. Until...

I have always thought AA fire vs a PARA should really hurt by taking factors off the resulting land attack - but not be allowed into adjacent hexes, since a paradrop is a one time mission across 3-4 hours whereas things like Ground Strike or Strategic Bombing are sustained air operations across many days and air missions.

I also thought you built a German Parachute division to add to the eventual use of the PARA corps?

I have begun always doing that in Sep/Oct 39, sometimes adding the Italian one. It is a good way to break into Belgium while leaving Holland neutral, and hopefully denying the Dyle line to the Allies at the same time. The PARAs might have to survive a French counter-attack - but that counter-attack might also cripple the French. Not giving the Allies the 10 Dutch CP, with the potency of the SUBs in CE rules, is a big help in keeping the pressure on the CW - and off of the Axis.

(in reply to Courtenay)

Post #: 284

RE: Axis Only. Ronnie vs Composer99. - 1/27/2020 1:12:54 AM

rkr1958

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I must say that I'm really enjoying this contest. Thanks for talking me into playing against an opponent as opposed to another go at solitary. I find it's enjoyable not really knowing what the other side is thinking and having to infer from their actions.

< Message edited by rkr1958 -- 1/27/2020 1:13:06 AM >

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Ronnie

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Post #: 285

RE: Axis Only. Ronnie vs Composer99. - 1/29/2020 1:18:38 AM

rkr1958

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Turn 5. May/June 1940. Allied # 8.

[al] Rolling end of turn. {Rolling at the end of axis #7 for end of turn.}.

[al] Missed it by thaaaat much. {Turn ends on less than 2 and the roll was a 2}.

[ax] Wow ...

[ax] It's probably best that at end your impulse you handle end of turn roll and, if applicable, next impulse pair weather roll. If you don't mind of course.

[al] Allied Impulse 8
No DoWs, alignments, border demands, etc.

Actions
Fr & China land
CW & USSR combined
USA pass

[al] Port Attacks: CW has two port attacks. Axis can't CAP or intercept either of them (as far as I can determine).
(1) CW port attacks Kiel from North Sea.
(2) CW port attacks Tripoli, Libya, from Eastern Med.

[al] Port Strike Kiel
Germany does not commit subs (I felt safe making that assumption) - only targets are the old BBs.
Surprise rolls are Germany 7, CW 2. CW has 4 surprise, which it spends to boost damage from 1D, 1A to 2D, 3A.

[al] CW picks D on Schlesien: saving throw is 8 - aborted.

[al] How do you want to pick the next D?

[ax] Isn't just 1 BB left?

[al] It's just Schlesien and Schleswig-Holstein in port. Schleswig-Holstein is indeed the only target now that Schlesien has been aborted.

[ax] Copy that

[al] D on Schleswig_Holstein: saving throw is 9 - aborted.

[al] Port Strike Tripoli
Italy has 1 cp in port. Surprise rolls are Italy 7, CW 7. Neither side has enough surprise to do anything.

[al] Damage is 1A, which aborts the convoy point.

[al] No naval air missions.

[al] Naval Movement
- Royal Navy sails HMS Liverpool and HMAS Shropshire from Gibraltar to 4 box Eastern Med.
- Royal Navy sails TRS from Plymouth to 2 box North Sea, embarking the V Corps in London.

{Dangit! Looks like move British troops are on their way to France.}

[al] Naval Combat
CW initiates combats in Eastern Med and Italian Coast.

[al] Combat in Eastern Med.
No air support (CW won't, Axis can't).
Search rolls are CW 3, Italy 6.

[al] CW picks 0 box and so has 7 surprise points. CW picks a surface combat.

[al] Damage profiles before spending surprise are:
- It 8 surface vs 6 ships: 1D, 3A.
- CW 23 surface vs 2 ships: 1X, 2A.

[al] CW spends surprise to shift damage profiles to:
- Italy: original damage 1D, 3A becomes 1D.
- CW: original damage 1X, 2A becomes 1X, 1D, 2A.

[ax] Put X on CP. Then D, 2A on ship.

[ax] Please.

[al] I would, but I have 3 surprise left. You can guess where that's going.

[ax] Oh ... I did say please. 😁

[al] CW spends 3 surprise to pick a target, in order to pick the X on Italian battleship Vittorio Veneto.
X on VV: saving throw is a 1, and Vittoro Veneto is sunk.
That leaves D and 2A and only one target. The cp takes the D and is also sunk.
They're breaking out the champagne on the RN flagship.

[al] CW takes 1D damage.
D on cruiser HMS Sussex; saving throw is 4 - she's damaged

[al] RN stays, do the Italians want to stay?

[ax] Nice shooting.

[ax] Heck no, they flee (er ... retire) to Malta.

[al] Italian cruisers at sea... let's say, strategically redeploy to Malta. 😉

[ax] Back is sec ... Dogs of war are crying to go out. What whimps!

[al] They're French - they want to distract you.

[ax] They're really good at it too.

[al] I may have to start referring to them as the Fluffy Maquis once France is defeated.

[ax] At the rate I'm going that may be a while. :(

[al] I don't know... from my perspective the French look like they're one decent blitz combat away from the whole front collapsing. But I guess a lot will depend on how long this turn goes on.

[ax] Fingers crossed ... assume yours are too.

Fluffy Maquis

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Ronnie

(in reply to rkr1958)

Post #: 286

RE: Axis Only. Ronnie vs Composer99. - 1/29/2020 1:23:39 AM

rkr1958

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Turn 5. May/June 1940. Allied # 8. (continued).

[al] On to the combat in Italian Coast.
No air support (neither side has eligible planes).
CW commits subs
Search rolls are CW 8, Italy 10. Ain't nobody finding no one out there.

[al] Germany can initiate in the North Sea if it wants.

[ax] No thank you.

[al] Any CAP for strategic bombing or, more importantly, ground strikes?

[ax] Negative. No CAP.

[al] No strategic bombing.

Ground Strikes:
(1) CW atr3 'Harrow' to Boulogne, targeting the PARA.
(2) French artillery in hex [54,31] bombards the Germans in Belgum [53,31].

[ax] I thought you might do that ...

[ax] I really wished I'd flipped that French arty division!

[al] Strike results:
(1) CW strike on Boulogne: roll of 9 misses. {That was on the lone German airborne corps that dropped last impulse and took Boulogne without a fighter (i.e., no notionals)}
(2) French bombardment of [53,31]:
- roll of 7 misses ftr2 'Bf 109E-4 Emil'
- roll of 8 misses I Corps (9-4 INF)
- roll of 4 misses XLVIII Corps (7-5 ARM)
- roll of 4 misses 150 mm guns (4-2 art)

Not exactly stellar marksmanship. Oh, well.

[al] Now you've flipped it. 😀

[ax] Wow ... now watch the turn end.

French Artillery Ground Strike Flyout.

Attachment (1)

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Ronnie

(in reply to rkr1958)

Post #: 287

RE: Axis Only. Ronnie vs Composer99. - 1/29/2020 1:27:22 AM

rkr1958

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Turn 5. May/June 1940. Allied # 8. (concluded).

[al] Rail Moves
- USSR rails 3rd infantry division (1-4 inf) from Omsk to Chita.

[al] Land Moves
- USSR Siberian Corps in Blagyoveshchensk leaves the city.
- More adjustments by USSR in Ukraine.
- No Communist Chinese moves.
- KMT re-forms a line running through Kweiyang.
- British II Corps (7-3 INF) advances into the Egyptian desert along the coast from Alexandria.
- Glasgow MIL moves to Edinburgh, the troops doubtless complaining the entire time about being forced to endure sub-par Edinburgh pubs.
- French move Dakar MIL towards the front.
- French V Corps (6-4 INF) blocks the German advance out of Boulogne.
- British V Corps (5-4 INF) debarks into Rouen.

[al] I had actually planned out more French moves, but that was before I decided to land the Brits in Rouen.

[ax] Holiday is it. :)

[al] Well, the lads better not treat it like one. :)

[al] No land combats.

[ax] I hear Germany's offering free tours.

[al] Yes, in special all-inclusive resorts. Although I hear the accommodations aren't the best.

[al] A bit prison-ish, is what I'm told.

[ax] But, lodging and meals are furnished.

[al] Sweet. I've got... 1.2 million bookings to put in. When do I sign up?

[ax] Berlin. :)

[ax] Seriously though, why do the Brits want to complicate my life so?

[al] Sheer bloody-mindedness.

[ax] 🧐

[al] Rebases
- Soviet IL-4 rebases from the middle of bloody nowhere to Ulan Ude on the shores of Lake Baikal. (So... slightly less bloody nowhere.)
- RAF ftr2 in Alexandria flies to cover the advance through the desert.

[al] No reorg, so it's on to end of turn roll.

[al] End of turn roll is a 3. The turn just barely keeps going. {Turn would have ended on a 1 or 2; i.e., less than 3. Barely missed ending again.}

[ax] Close, now for the weather.

[al] Weather roll is 4 - fine everywhere except North Monsoon, which is rain.

[ax] I can live with that. :)

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RE: Axis Only. Ronnie vs Composer99. - 1/29/2020 1:56:35 AM

rkr1958

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Turn 5. May/June 1940. Axis #9. Weather.

The probability the axis get another impulse after this one is 0.7 x 0.6 = 0.42 (assuming at least two allied MP's don't pass).

The probability that given another impulse the weather is fine in the north temperate (i.e., on the Western Front) is 0.8.

The probability of getting another fine weather impulse on the western front is 0.42 x .8 = .336 (about 1 in 3).

So I'd say that this is likely the last fine weather impulse the axis will get this turn.

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RE: Axis Only. Ronnie vs Composer99. - 1/29/2020 2:01:30 AM

rkr1958

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Turn 5. May/June 1940. Axis #9. War Gaming (1/4).

So even though the Germans can get 4 full stacks adjacent to Lille, the best odds that they can get is +7.667 assault, which includes +2 HQ support from Rundstedt. These odds give the Germans on a 42% of taking the city. It's hard not to say heck and go for it, but I've decided to maintain combat discipline and turn Lille into a self-sustaining POW camp (for now at least).

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< Message edited by rkr1958 -- 1/29/2020 2:09:29 AM >

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RE: Axis Only. Ronnie vs Composer99. - 1/29/2020 2:04:27 AM

rkr1958

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Turn 5. May/June 1940. Axis #9. War Gaming (2/4).

I looked at trying to crack the Magnoit line and pushing into Strasbourg. Though only 1 defender the odds were so abysmal, attacker flips assure and chances of multiple attackers lost too great to carry through the land combat. Like Lille, I plan (for now) to turn the Magnoit line into a self-sustaining POW camp.

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< Message edited by rkr1958 -- 1/29/2020 2:09:42 AM >

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RE: Axis Only. Ronnie vs Composer99. - 1/29/2020 2:09:46 AM

rkr1958

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Turn 5. May/June 1940. Axis #9. War Gaming (3/4).

How I wanted to just "roll the dice" and let the Italians attack Nice. But again, the risks are too much for my tastes; especially given only 4 land units could attack and the dreaded 14 (8.5% chance) would wipe out a mountain ,mot corps and art division. Another no-go ...

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RE: Axis Only. Ronnie vs Composer99. - 1/29/2020 2:13:07 AM

rkr1958

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Turn 5. May/June 1940. Axis #9. War Gaming (4/4).

So the only go for land combat was a blitz against a French 3-stack containing Georges HQ-I, inf corps and art div. The only question was whether or not to add Rundstedt HQ support (+2).

In the end it was decided to include the +2 in HQ support which guaranteed a win, significantly increased the chance of not losing any attackers and remaining organized.

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RE: Axis Only. Ronnie vs Composer99. - 1/29/2020 2:50:50 AM

rkr1958

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Turn 5. May/June 1940. Axis #9.

[ax] Turn 5. May/June 1940. Axis #9.
No DOW's. No special actions. No alignments.
Japan - land, Germany - land, Italy - combine.

[ax] Chance turn ends after this impulse is 30%

[ax] Naval Air. None.

[ax] Naval Movement.
Italy moves CP from Trieste to East Med (reestablishing supply to the Italian forces in North Africa).
Assume RN in East Med wish to initiate?
If so, which ship initiates?

[al] Revenge in 2 box will initiate.

[ax] East Med.
RN Revenge initiates.
Search. RN=1, RM=2. RN finds and another Italian CP sent to the bottom.
And, supply to Balbo and his forces in Libya broken again.

East Med.

{I may be able to get the gun div and inf corps out of Libya and back to mainland Italy, but I'm afraid Balbo is toast. Without supply I won't be able to reorganized him}.

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RE: Axis Only. Ronnie vs Composer99. - 1/29/2020 2:53:22 AM

rkr1958

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Turn 5. May/June 1940. Axis #9. (continued)

[ax] Strategic Bombing. None.

[ax] Ground Strikes. Japan x 1.

[ax] Ki-27 F/B (1 Tac) vs Mao & 8th Rte army.
(1) vs 8th Rte army=5, missed.
(2) vs Mao=1, flipped.

[al] Wow. Nice shot.

[ax] Only 10% chance but why not?

{With both Mao and Chaing flipped and only 1 Chinese oil point, only one will Chinese HQ will be reorganized next turn}

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< Message edited by rkr1958 -- 1/29/2020 2:54:05 AM >

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RE: Axis Only. Ronnie vs Composer99. - 1/29/2020 2:56:10 AM

rkr1958

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Turn 5. May/June 1940. Axis #9. (continued)

[al] Rail. Japan. Man Terr. Port Arthur to Chengchow, China.

Southern China. Post Movement.

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RE: Axis Only. Ronnie vs Composer99. - 1/29/2020 2:56:50 AM

rkr1958

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Turn 5. May/June 1940. Axis #9. (continued)

Northern & Central China. Post Movement.

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RE: Axis Only. Ronnie vs Composer99. - 1/29/2020 2:58:55 AM

rkr1958

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Turn 5. May/June 1940. Axis #9. (continued)

[ax] Land Combat. Just One.
German Blitz vs 3-Stack, France 54,31 (Georges HQ-I, inf, art div).
Rundstedt providing +2 HQ support. No ground support. +14.3 Blitz.

[ax] Resolution.
Fractional=107, yes. 2D10=14. Result=29.
Germany converts the shatter/breakthrough into a retreat.
Assume you wish to save Georges' HQ-I?
If so, VII Inf corps and 105 mm art div lost.

[al] Yes, please save HQ Georges.

[ax] I guess I didn't have a choice where Georges was retreated. He was retreated to the hex directly east of Paris.

[ax] Air rebase. Ef 109 FTR from Bel 53,31 to France 54,31

[ax] Air rebase. Italy. Ca.135 Cagliari, Sardinia to Germany 56,35.

[ax] Air rebase. Japan. Ki-30. Canton to Ichang, China.

[ax] I'll end my impulse here at HQ reorg (Japan).

[ax] Game file 05-MAY-JUN-1940-AXIS-09-EOI.zip sent.
Turn ends on 3 or less.

The Western Front.

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RE: Axis Only. Ronnie vs Composer99. - 1/29/2020 3:05:31 AM

rkr1958

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Turn 5. May/June 1940. End of Turn.

[ax] Game file 05-MAY-JUN-1940-AXIS-09-EOI.zip sent.
Turn ends on 3 or less.

[al] Got it.

[al] Hrm.

[ax] Say again?

[al] Just looking over the map before ending the phase.

[ax] Is that a good Hrm or a bad Hrm?

[al] Since I was looking at the Western Front... we'll say bad.

[al] 'Tis not a pretty sight. IMO, one more hex gets mulched and the French are kaput.

[al] Okay, ending the phase.

[al] End of turn roll is a 2. Thus endeth the turn.

[al] Partisans:
Korea: 46
China: 58
Malaya: 56
NEI: 82
Burma: 13
India: 75
Indochina: 73

[al] No partisans.

[ax] That's always a good thing if you're the axis.

[al] I think you said earlier that both German chits should go offensive, yes?

[ax] Correct.

[al] Okay. German pact chits in the offensive pools.
- Chit #1 roll of 258, marker value 2.
- Chit #2 roll of 291, marker value 3.
- This message will self-destruct.

[al] USSR draws 1 marker and places it in the defensive pool. It's "face-up", so the marker value is 1 (roll of 128).

[al] US draws 1 marker versus Ge/It.

[al] US passes 4. Intern French aircraft carrier.
To "reveal markers", I will note there are two '1'-value markers in the Ge/It pool, and two "1"-value markers in the Ja pool, allowing the passage of this option.

Tension roll is 5. US moves 1 marker from Ge/It pool into tension.

US chooses not to replace B�arn with a transport, so it goes into the US Construction Pool.

[al] US does not choose any further US entry options.

[al] France, Italy, and China each lost 2 turns' worth of production in the destroyed pool. CW lost 1 turns' worth. Ge lost 1/2 a turn, and Ja lost 1/8th of a turn. (I'm not counting damaged ships, which if memory serves makes things worse for Italy and CW). Pretty good ratio overall for the Axis, save for Italy.

[ax] Interesting. Thanks for providing!

Destroyed and Repair Pools.

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Ronnie

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RE: Axis Only. Ronnie vs Composer99. - 1/29/2020 3:08:40 AM

rkr1958

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Turn 5. May/June 1940. End of Turn. (continued).

[ax] Axis Final Production (same as preliminary) is:
Germany. 22 PP's x 0.75 = 17 BP's. 2 sent to USSR. 4 oil RP saved.
Italy. 6 PP's x 0.75 = 5 BP's. 1 oil RP saved.
Japan. 17 x 1 = 17 PP's. 1 sent to USA. 1 oil RP saved.

[ax] Axis Stay at Sea/RTB.
(1) All axis CP's stay at sea.
(2) German sub North Sea returns to Kiel.
(3) Italy. Italian Coast. FTR2, CA 1 box to 0-box.
(4) Italian subs return to Malta.
(5) Both Italian Transports in Italian Coast return to Malta.

[al] Axis Prelim production confirmed, as is Axis stay-at-sea. (RTBs to come.)

[al] Allied Stay at Sea/RTB
(1) US/USSR/CW cps stay at sea.
(2) US TRS in Polynesia RTB to San Diego.
(3) Fr cps in Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal, and South China Sea RTB to
(4) Fr cruiser Suffren (in Gulf of Guinea) RTB to Libreville, Gabon.
(5) Fr TRS in Bay of Biscay RTB to Bingerville, C�te d'Ivoire.
(6) Dutch TRS in Bay of Bengal RTB to Bombay.
(7) Queens in Arabian Sea RTB to Gibraltar.
(8) HMS Rodney and Effingham (in Cape Verde Basin) RTB to Cape Town, South Africa.
(9) HMS Exeter and Edinburg stay at sea in North Atlantic, while Hermes, Ramilles, and Norfolk RTB to Liverpool and Terror RTBs to Halifax.
(10) HMS Belfast and Devonshire stay at sea in Cape St Vincent, while Resolution, Dorsetshire, and Erebus RTB to Gibraltar and the Polish destroyer flotilla RTBs to Freetown, Sierra Leone.
(11) HMS London and Glasgow stay at sea in Bay of Biscay, while Valiant, Southampton and Dutch cruiser Sumatra RTB to Liverpool and the NAV RTBs to Gibraltar.
(12) HMS Hawkins and Fiji stay at sea in North Sea. Remaining fleet there RTBs to Plymouth.
(13) Subs in Italian Coast RTB to Gibraltar.
(14) Dutch cruiser Java stays at sea in W Med, remaining fleet there RTBs to Gibraltar.
(15) HMS Liverpool and HMAS Shropshire stay at sea in E Med, while Eagle, Malaya, and Revenge RTB to Port Said.

[al] Oh, where do you want the stuff in the Italian Coast 0 box to go - Malta?

[ax] Yes please.

[al] Axis RTB completed as instructed.

[ax] copy that.

[al] Since I forgot to actually say where the French cps were going, they're going to Seychelles.

[al] Next up - oil!

[ax] Use Oil. Germany. 3.9 Need. All reorganized using saved oil: Prague, Hamburg, Warsaw x 2.

[ax] Use Oil. Italy. 1.3 Need. All reorg by spending 1 saved oil in Rome.

[ax] Japan. 1.2 Need. All reorg by spending 1 save oil in Tokyo.

[al] Allied Oil Use
USSR doesn't need to use oil.
China: spends 0 oil (0.4 to reorg HQ Chiang, leaving HQ Mao disorganised).
Commonwealth: Needs 4.6 oil. Expends 5 oil (Halifax, Cairo, Calcutta x2, Dehli).
France: Needs 1.75 oil. Expends 2 oil in Damascus.
USA: Needs 0.2 oil. Expends 0 oil to reorg 2x TRS.

Use Oil. Axis.