RE: Axis Only. Ronnie vs Composer99.

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RE: Axis Only. Ronnie vs Composer99. - 1/25/2020 8:26:01 PM

rkr1958

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Joined: 5/21/2009
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Turn 5. May/June 1940. Axis #1. (continued)

[ax] Naval Combat. Italian Coast.
BB Conte Di Cavour (0-box) initiates.
Italy reacts two FTR2's from Malta to 0- and 1-box.
No allied air reactions possible due to surprise impulse & no RN presence.
Search. Italy=5, French=4. Nobody finds.
Italians missed by 1!

[al] Il Duce can't be impressed with the performance of the RM this war.

[ax]

Italian Coast.

Attachment (1)

< Message edited by rkr1958 -- 1/25/2020 8:27:44 PM >

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Ronnie

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Post #: 241

RE: Axis Only. Ronnie vs Composer99. - 1/25/2020 8:28:56 PM

rkr1958

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Turn 5. May/June 1940. Axis #1. (continued)

[ax] Naval Combat. West Med.
Italian BB initiates.
No axis air reactions.
No allied air reactions possible (again because of surprised French only units present).
Italy commits her sub group.
Search. Italy=5, FR=7. Only the Italians find.

[ax] Wow ... II Duce must have heard you. 😀

[al] Guess he got tired of the grinding attrition fighting the Royal Navy, enabled by the "neutral" French spotting.

[ax] Italians include French CA in 2-box & 2 CP's in 0-box.
French get 12 surprise points and elect to fight a surface action.

[ax] Risk.
Italian RM (initial) risk is no-effect.
French (initial) risk is D,A.
French use 8 SP's to increase risk to X, D, 2A.
French then use 3 SP's to place X on 2 CP's sinking both.

[ax] D, 2A left for CA Primaguest.
D=7, damaged and with 2 A's left it's also aborted.

[ax] No French (or allied) units left in sea area

[al] Guess El Duce got tired of the grinding attrition fighting the Royal Navy, enabled by the "neutral" French spotting.

[ax] Yes he Did. 🤨

West Med.

Attachment (1)

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Ronnie

(in reply to rkr1958)

Post #: 242

RE: Axis Only. Ronnie vs Composer99. - 1/25/2020 8:30:22 PM

rkr1958

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Turn 5. May/June 1940. Axis #1. (continued)

[ax] Naval Combat. East Med.
No axis air reactions.
Again, no allied air reactions possible because of the surprise.
CA Zara (0-box) initiates.
Search. Italy=1, French=6. Only Italy finds and with 10 SP's.
It's another surface battle.

[al] Oh, and I just realised the RM are a pack of sneaky gits, attacking the French just when they have to start calling land impulses. Truly, Italy is the country that looks like a boot and behaves like a heel this war.

[ax] 😭

[ax] Risk.
Italy sticks with their initial risk of A.
Use 6 of 10 SP's to increase French risk from D, 2A to 2X.
Use 3 of 4 remaining SP's to put X on 2 CP's sinking both.

[ax] This leaves an X for CA Dugay Trouin.
X=8, sunk but just barley.
Italy puts A on CA Zara. A=1, aborted.
Thus, ends the naval battle in the West Med since no allied units are left.

East Med.

Attachment (1)

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Ronnie

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Post #: 243

RE: Axis Only. Ronnie vs Composer99. - 1/25/2020 8:32:52 PM

rkr1958

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Turn 5. May/June 1940. Axis #1. (continued)

[ax] CA Zara aborts to La Spezia through the Italian Coast.
The French can attempt to intercept if they wish.
But I doubt you will. Intercept?

[ax] Or maybe you wish to?

[ax] You need a 1 to intercept.

[al] No, the French are still surprised, so they won't get surprise points.

[al] So they won't intercept, is what I meant to finish that sentence with.

[ax] copy that.

[ax] I could have returned to La Spezia through the West Med without having to worry about the French intercepting but deliberately returned through the Italian Coast in the hopes that the French would attempt and succeed intercept. It was a long shot even if they had tried (1 required). But was fun trying.

[ax] CA Zara returns to La Spezia.

Italian Coast (again).

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Ronnie

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Post #: 244

RE: Axis Only. Ronnie vs Composer99. - 1/25/2020 8:35:00 PM

rkr1958

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Turn 5. May/June 1940. Axis #1. (continued)

[ax] Strategic Bombing. None.

[ax] Ground Strike CAP. RAF Spitfire I provides CAP over Gort and it will be needed because the Luftwaffe will ground strike that Gort's stack with 2 Stuka's escorted by 2 FTR2's.

[ax] Axis Ground Strikes x 2.
(1) Japan vs Ichang (Nationalist inf army & garrison).
(2) Germany vs Gort's stack.

[ax] IJN ground strike on Ichang.
D3A1 Val (2 TAC) vs 8 inf army=6, missed.
vs 13th gar army=8, missed.

IJN Ground Strike. Ichang.

Attachment (1)

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Ronnie

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Post #: 245

RE: Axis Only. Ronnie vs Composer99. - 1/25/2020 8:38:00 PM

rkr1958

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Turn 5. May/June 1940. Axis #1. (continued)

[ax] Rail. Japan - none.

[ax] Air Rebase. Japan. D3A2 Val from Hengyang to Wuhan.

{Odds just weren't there this early in the turn for Japan to carry out any land combats at modest odds and risk, at best, attackers flips. So, they used this impulse to push their troops around, using maneuver were possible to threaten flanking the Chinese.}

Japan. China.

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Ronnie

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Post #: 246

RE: Axis Only. Ronnie vs Composer99. - 1/25/2020 8:59:22 PM

rkr1958

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Turn 5. May/June 1940. Axis #1. (continued)

[ax] Ground Strike. vs BEF. Belgium 52,31.
Air-to-Air. Axis +1, Allied 0.
Allied=18. Lead Ge FTR2 shot down & PIL killed.

[ax] Axis=16. RAF spitfire shot down, PIL survives.
RAF fighters are wreaking havoc on the Luftwaffe!

[al] I think the RAF and Luftwaffe both practically destroyed each others' fighter arms. Guess I need to build some ftr2 stat.

[ax] At least your air crews are surviving. The Luftwaffe are losing both planes and pilots!

[al] Pretty sure Fighter Command has picked a winner with the Spitfires. Guess I had better crank some out now that I'm all out of them.

[ax] There's really no need. Germany has no design on Great Britain or wanting to control the air over the country. 😉

[al] Riiiiiiight.

[ax] Luftwaffe Ground Strike vs BEF.
(1) Stuka Ju 87B (5 TAC). Gort=7 missed, IV Mot=3, flipped, A/T div=9, missed.
(2) Stuka Ju 87B (5 TAC). Gort=8 missed (dang!), A/T div=7, missed.
Well, that didn't go as well as I'd hope; but could have been worse.

[ax] Another way to look at it is the 10-factors by flipping one corps (+2) contributed more than if used in ground support (+1.43). But no by much and at the cost of a fighter and pilot.

[ax] Rail. Germany - none.

[ax] Two land combats. Both by Germany.
(1) vs BEF in Belgium 52,31. +12.3 Blitz (raw)
(2) vs French stack, Belgium 54,32 woods. +3.941 Blitz (raw).
Note. (a) raw are the odds prior to the application of any HQ or ground support. (b) Germany has choice of CRT for both land combats and will choose blitz.

{This second, +3.941 Blitz is really a "soak off". I'm hoping the French commit one of their HQ's and artillery or air in ground support. At best, I'll have around a 30% chance of winning; but with Guderian used with the O-chit, I'll have him to reorg if the attack fails. I just hope that losses are kept at a minimum. Who knows, the land combat might succeed and that would be a bonus if it did! I really don't see a downside to this combat except for the possible loss of a mot div and, possibly MIL.}

[ax] Allies have some decision to make on HQ and ground support for both attacks.

[al] What sort of fighter support do the Germans have?

[ax] Ge +5 a2a & Italian +4 a2a fighters.

[ax] Does Gort will to apply -1 HQ support against the blitz on his stack?

[al] Yes, please.

{Dang it ... this was one of the 2 reasons I wanted to flip Gort. The second of course was the +2 I'd get from him being flipped. I had a 75% chance of doing so but missed him. So goes the fortunes of war.}

[ax] French can also apply HQ support.
(1) -1.5 by Georges
(2) -1 by Billotte
Do you wish either?

[al] Is there a German HQ participating in the attack in the woods?

[ax] Negative.

[ax] German armor corps & div provides the armor to overcome the French A/T div in order to force a blitz.

[al] OK. Bilotte will support the attack.

[ax] copy that.

[ax] Rundstedt HQ which is participating in the Blitz of the BEF elects NOT to contribute HQ support.

[ax] MB 152 in Paris can fly CAP against ground support over the French stack. The other two French fighters don't need too as they're 2-hexes away. Do you wish to fly MB 152 as CAP?

[al] No thanks.

[ax] copy that.

[ax] Ground Support. BEF Stack.
(1) Germany flies 5 planes (14 factors total) of offensive ground support.
(2) Ge +5 a2a & Italian +4 a2a fighter kept in reserve.
(3) RAF can fly unescorted ground support (Vildebeest, DB-7, Harrow ATR). Do you wish to?

[al] Hrm. Bomber Command flies the DB-7.

[ax] Wow ... brave .. Italian fighter intercepts.

[ax] French ground support options.
(1) 105 Atry div (3 factors / 2 for woods)
(2) LeO 451 (3 factors / 2 for woods)
(3) w/all 3 FTR2's in position to escort.
Instructions?

[al] LeO 451 flies and the ftr2 in Paris flies as an escort.

[ax] copy that. Luftwaffe declines to intecept.

[ax] Air to air. Skies over the BEF. Belgium 52,31.
(1) All Luftwaffe bombers cleared.
(2) Allied=13, no axis bombers left to clear.
(3) Axis=16, DB-7 shot down, PIL survives.

[al] Good job by the Italians. Yikes.

[ax] El Duce is definitely having his time in the sun.

[ax] The French bomber added +2 in defensive ground support.

[ax] Where do you wish to return the French fighter and bomber?

[al] Vichy, methinks.

[ax] Bomber can make it, fighter can't.

[al] Back to Paris for the fighter, then.

[ax] copy that.

[ax] Two land combats.
(1) +13 Blitz vs BEF
(2) +2.421 vs French stack in woods (Belgium 54,32)
Let's go ahead and take care of the big one first (i.e., blitz vs BEF)

[ax] Land Combat. Germany vs BEF. +13 Blitz.
No fractional.
2D10=10, result=23.
Germany decides to convert the breakthrough to a retreat.
Assume you wish to save Gort?

[al] Yes, since it's a retreat.

[ax] IV mot corps and A/T div destroyed.
Gort HQ-I retreated by Germany to hex northwest of Paris (54,30).

{I decided to retreat Gort instead of shattering him for two reasons. The obvious one is in the hopes of being able to finish him off. The second is a bit more subtle. I retreated him northeast of Paris in the hopes that he will clog up the French lines since they can't stack with him and since he can't be reorg until the end of the turn. Though the downside is that the CW can move two more units into France versus none if I had shattered him.}

German Combat vs BEF.

Attachment (1)

< Message edited by rkr1958 -- 1/25/2020 9:02:19 PM >

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Ronnie

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Post #: 247

RE: Axis Only. Ronnie vs Composer99. - 1/25/2020 9:04:36 PM

rkr1958

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Turn 5. May/June 1940. Axis #1. (continued)

[ax] Land Combat.
Germany vs French 3-stack, woods, Belgium 54,32. Blitz +2.421.
Fractional=651, no.
2D10=4, yuck!
Result=2+4=6. Germany loses 2 units. Mot div & 7-2 MIL.

[ax] And of course all surviving attackers are flipped.

[ax] Air rebase. Germany. Ju 52 ATR to Aachen.

[ax] Air rebase. Italy. none.

[al] Well, no one can say the British haven't been bleeding to keep France going this war.

[ax] I'm sure De Gaulle is most grateful and will return the favor one day. 😀

[ax] Germany HQ-Reorg.
(1) Guderian. Arm, mech, inf corps. Arm div. Stuka Ju 87B (5 TAC).
(2) von Leeb Ju 88A1 (4 TAC)

Germany Attack on French Stack in Belgium Woods.

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Ronnie

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Post #: 248

RE: Axis Only. Ronnie vs Composer99. - 1/25/2020 9:05:53 PM

rkr1958

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Turn 5. May/June 1940. Axis #1. (continued)

[ax] Italian CA in La Spezia is reorganzied using the 3-mover transport.

Italy. Italian Coast.

Attachment (1)

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Ronnie

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Post #: 249

RE: Axis Only. Ronnie vs Composer99. - 1/25/2020 9:06:25 PM

rkr1958

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Turn 5. May/June 1940. Axis #1. (continued)

West Med.

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Ronnie

(in reply to rkr1958)

Post #: 250

RE: Axis Only. Ronnie vs Composer99. - 1/25/2020 9:07:41 PM

rkr1958

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Turn 5. May/June 1940. Axis #1. (continued)

[ax] I'll end the axis impulse at Japan's HQ reorg phase.

[ax] 05-MAY-JUNE-1940-Axis-01-EOI.zip game turn sent. Back to you.

East Med.

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Ronnie

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Post #: 251

RE: Axis Only. Ronnie vs Composer99. - 1/25/2020 10:24:57 PM

Courtenay

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I am very surprised you did not attack the Chinese MIL. Now the Chinese will be able to make a decent line, and you won't get a good attack. Yes, attacking early can be bad, but when you have an opportunity, you should take it. Taking the Chinese MIL's hex would have compromised the whole Chinese line; now they can make a good one in the mountains. And a half flip would not have been that bad; that is what reorg is for.

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I thought I knew how to play this game....

(in reply to rkr1958)

Post #: 252

RE: Axis Only. Ronnie vs Composer99. - 1/26/2020 1:14:32 AM

rkr1958

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Turn 5. May/June 1940. Allied #2.

[al] Allied Impulse 2.
No DoWs, alignments, etc.

[al] Actions:
China & France land;
CW naval;
US & USSR combined.

[al] No port attacks.

[al] Naval air: CW flies Vildebeest to 0 box Bay of Biscay.

[al] US Naval Moves:
- US embarks LII Corps (5-1 GARR) and naval bombers in San Diego into transports, and sails the corps to Polynesia, and sails the naval bombers to Hawaiian Islands sea area.

[al] CW Naval Moves (convoy pipelines):
- HMS Exeter, London, and Belfast drop from 3 box to 1 box of the N Atlantic, Bay of Biscay, and Cape St Vincent, respectively.
- Dutch cruiser Sumatra and HMS Terror and Erebus sail to 0 box Bay of Biscay, North Atlantic, and Cape St Vincent, respectively.
- BBs HMS Ramilles, Resolution, and Valiant sail to 0 box North Atlantic, Cape St Vincent, and Bay of Biscay, respectively.
- CVL HMS Hermes sails to 0 box North Atlantic.
- HMS Edinburgh sails to 4 box North Atlantic.

[al] There are a few more moves related to convoys, but one of them requires your input once you're done dinner or otherwise have an opportunity. HMS Devonshire is sailing from Gibraltar through Cape St Vincent. Do the Italians wish to attempt to intercept?

[ax] No intercept.

[al] Okay. Devonshire sails through to 4 box Bay of Biscay.

[al] Oops, I clicked on the wrong button, and Devonshire is sailing to 4 box Cape St Vincent. Do the Italians want to intercept HMS Glasgow (cruiser)?

[ax] Negative

[al] CW Naval Moves (convoy pipelines):
- HMS Glasgow sails to 4 box Bay of Biscay.
- Polish destroyer flotilla sails to 4 box Cape St Vincent.

[al] CW North Sea blockade:
- CV HMS Glorious, BB HMS Queen Elizabeth, and CAs HMS Newcastle, Fiji, and Hawkins sail from Liverpool to 2 box North Sea, joining HMS Gloucester.
- BB HMS Royal Oak sails from Plymouth to 2 box North Sea.

[al] Mediterranean:
- CW HMS Courageous, BBs HMS Renown and Repulse, CA HMAS Canberra, and the Dutch cruiser Java sail to 3 box W Med from Gibraltar.
- RN and Dutch subs sail to 2 and 3 box, respectively, in Italian Coast.
- Cruisers HMS Birmingham, Cornwall, Kent, and HMAS Australia sail from Port Said to E Med 3 box.

[al] Transports & Misc naval moves:
- Dutch TRS in Adelaide sails to 0 box Bay of Bengal.
- Queens in French Somaliland sail to 0 box Arabian Sea and embarks 4-2 Bombay MIL.
- A small detachment of HMS Rodney and HMS Effingham sail from Plymouth. They enter Cape St Vincent.

[al] Rodney and Effingham want to sail through - do the Italians want to try to intercept?

[ax] Negative.

[al] Okay, they sail through to 0 box Cape Verde Basin.

[al] Whew!

[al] Now for naval combats.

{Interesting, no replacement BEF moved out to the North Sea or Bay of Biscay? Have the Brits given up on France, at least on the ground?}

Position of RN Transports and Lines at the end of the allied naval moves.

Attachment (1)

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Ronnie

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Post #: 253

RE: Axis Only. Ronnie vs Composer99. - 1/26/2020 1:19:03 AM

rkr1958

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Turn 5. May/June 1940. Allied #2. (continued).

[al] CW initiates in Eastern Med.

[al] CW won't send planes. I don't think Italy can, but if it can, will it?

[ax] I believe all of Italy's planes are already committed.

[al] Yes, I think so as well, and I don't think they can send the bombers in Egypt as they don't have naval bombing factors.

[al] The game agrees, and proceeds to search rolls after I click on the end phase button for CW air support. Search rolls are CW 3, Italy 3, so we're looking at a cruiser gunnery battle.

[al] Italy has all of 1 surprise point, so there's no way for either side to affect the combat.

[ax] Well at least the RM will be trading steel with the RN and not the French.

[al] Italy damage is 1D, 2A. How does Italy want to allocate damage?

[ax] D on the CA fiume and if damaged keep putting A's on it until aborted.

[ax] Then whatever is left goes on the CA Bolzano.

[al] D on Fiume; saving throw is 3 - Fiume is damaged.
A on Fiume; saving throw is 6 - Fiume is aborted.
A on Bolzano; saving throw is 7 - Bolzano stays at sea.

[al] CW takes 2D, 1A.
D on HMS Kent; saving throw is 10 - Kent is aborted.
D on HMS Cornwall; saving throw is 6 - Cornwall is damaged.
A on HMS Cornwall; saving throw is 1 - Cornwall is aborted.

[al] Royal Navy is staying, how about the Regia Marina?

[ax] Yes.

[al] Both sides stay. No new planes to send in. Search rolls for the 2nd round are CW 8, Italy 2. Italy 4 box finds with 7 surprise.

[ax] So that's 8 Italian surface factors (2 ships) vs 2 RN ships?

[al] Italy has 8 surface vs 2 ships for D,A. RN has 5 surface vs 2 ships for 2A.

[ax] Italy uses 4 SP's to shift RN risk from D, A to 2D, 3A.
They use 2 SP's to shift their risk from 2A to no effect.
Fire away. 🧐

[al] Okay. Italy takes no damage. CW takes 2D, 3A.
D on HMS Birmingham; saving throw is 5, she's damaged.
D on HMAS Australia; saving throw is 9, she's aborted.
3As guarantees that Birmingham is aborted.
All CW ships abort to Port Said.

[ax] copy that.

[al] Fiume aborts to Malta, and thence to the repair pool.

[al] The declaration of war on France and the ravaging of the BEF seems to have breathed new life into the Regia Marina.

[ax] For now at least ... we'll see how much breath they have left if a year or so.

[al] Indeed.

East Med. Initial Round. Post Search.

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Ronnie

(in reply to rkr1958)

Post #: 254

RE: Axis Only. Ronnie vs Composer99. - 1/26/2020 1:25:22 AM

rkr1958

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Turn 5. May/June 1940. Allied #2. (continued).

[al] On to the next combat. Royal Navy initiates in Western Med.

[al] Neither side has planes, so far as I am aware. Do the Italians wish to commit their subs in the 4 box?

[ax] Yes.

[al] Okay.

[al] Search rolls are CW 3, Italy 6. RN 3 box finds It 4 box with 2 surprise.

[al] Despite having Gladiator biplanes ready to fight in the air, RN picks "no" for naval air combat, so the choice is Italy's - naval air or surface.

Surface combat is Italy 9 surface vs 5 ships and RN 16 surface vs 2 ships.

Naval air depends on the result of the air combat.

[al] And CW has 2 surprise yet to spend.

[ax] How much air does the RN have?

[al] (+3/-3 air combat), and Swordfish with 3 naval bombing factors. (That's 1D, 1A)

[ax] Italy elects to fight air-to-air.

[al] Righty-o.

[al] Air combat round 1:
- no Axis fighters, so the Swordfish clears through.
- Italy roll 11 no result.
- CW roll 11 clears the Italians through.

[al] No Italian AA based on intersection of AA factors & enemy planes.

[al] CW does not spend surprise to boost damage.

[al] CW AA fire is 8, 1, 1, 10, 10, 1. Very lopsided. 1 Italian naval factor is suppressed.

[al] CW spends 2 surprise to reduce It damage to no effect.

[al] CW inflicts 1D, 1A.
CW picks D on SUB; saving throw is 4 - SUB is damaged.
How do you want to allocate the A?

[ax] A on sub.

[al] It picks A on SUB; saving throw is 10 - SUB stays at sea.

[al] Royal Navy is staying. What about the Italians?

[ax] Italians retire to Malta.

[al] Righty-o.

[al] Britain has at least one piece of good news to report in the papers.

[al] Last naval combat initiated by CW in Italian Coast.

[al] French have to commit by default. CW commits subs.
Search rolls are Allied 1, Italy 8.

[ax] Yikes.

[al] Allies all find and pick the Italians in the 4 box, getting 6 surprise.

[al] It's a surface combat.
Italians have 4 surface vs 4 ships for 2A, which the Allies reduce to 1A.
Allies have 8 surface vs 2 ships for 1D, 1A, which they increase to 2D, 3A.

[al] How do you want to allocate damage?

[ax] 1st D on CA Eugenio Di Savoia. 2nd D on CA Abruzzi. A's on Eugenio until aborted. Then remaining A's on Abruzzi.

[al] D on Eugenio Di Savoia; saving throw is 3 - she's damaged.
D on Abruzzi; saving throw is 9 - she's aborted.
With 3As left to apply Eugenio Di Savoia is definitely aborted.
Where do you want the Italians to abort? Malta?

[ax] Yes, Malta. Italians stay.

[al] Allies take 1A. A on French cruiser Tourville; saving throw is 3 - she's aborted.

[al] Allies also stay.

[al] 2nd round: RN and Dutch subs are committed. Search rolls are CW 7, Italy 3. The Allies' diligence in clearing out the picket first is rewarded as they don't get bushwhacked.

[al] Tourville aborts to Marseilles - she doesn't have the range to get to Morocco.

[ax] Aborts to Malta.

Italian Coast. First Round. Post Search.

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Ronnie

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Post #: 255

RE: Axis Only. Ronnie vs Composer99. - 1/26/2020 1:27:01 AM

rkr1958

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Turn 5. May/June 1940. Allied #2. (continued).

[al] Italian subs can initiate in Cape St Vincent. Will they?

[ax] Yes, Italians subs will initiate.

[al] Okay. CW has no planes to fly.

[al] Italians initiate in Cape St Vincent. Search rolls are Italy 6, CW 5, for no combat.

[ax] worth a try.

[al] Oh for sure, especially with no planes.

Cape St. Vincent. Pre-Search.

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Ronnie

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Post #: 256

RE: Axis Only. Ronnie vs Composer99. - 1/26/2020 1:29:08 AM

rkr1958

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Turn 5. May/June 1940. Allied #2. (concluded).

[al] I'm almost 100% sure I already know the answer, but any CAP for strat bombing or ground strikes?

[ax] No CAP.

[al] Okay. Allies don't fly any strat bombing or ground strike missions.

[al] Rail moves:
- France rails Bordeaux MIL to Paris.
- USSR rails 50th Army (4-3 INF) from Omsk to Chita.

{That's another Soviet army moved into Asia. I don't like this build-up.}

[al] Land moves:
- Communist China uses up all USSR land moves adjusting lines around Sian.
- KMT forces form up a line in Kweichow Province.
- France makes assorted adjustments to the line in France. Notable things:
(1) The position where the French mechanised & tank forces were is now being occupied by a rearguard - the Marseilles MIL, whose troops are, I am sure, none too pleased with the arrangement.
(2) The French formation in the Ardennes in Belgium is still fully stacked, although one of the units in the stack has been replaced with another.
(3) There is now a single GARR corps in Strasbourg.

[al] No land combats.

Debarks & Rebases:
- US debarks the LII Corps into Pago Pago.
- US naval bombers at sea (PBY-1 Catalina) rebase into Midway.
- USSR IL-4 LND3 rebases from just outside Odessa to just outside Kuybyshev.
- CW Hampden LND3 rebases from Tunisia to Alexandria in Egypt.

[al] Sent the game file.

[ax] got it.

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Ronnie

(in reply to rkr1958)

Post #: 257

RE: Axis Only. Ronnie vs Composer99. - 1/26/2020 1:32:14 AM

rkr1958

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Turn 5. May/June 1940. Axis #3.

[ax] Turn 5. May/June 1940. Axis #3. Weather= 1. Weather turns nasty.
(1) snow in arctic.
(2) storms in north temperate.
(3) rain in med.
(4) storms in north monsoon.
(5) storms in south monsoon.
(6) storms in south temperate.
Impulse advance is 2, +2 roll modifier.

[al] Ouch.

[ax] Well, I suspect this might be a quick impulse pair.

[al] Storms make the British nervous when Axis subs are still in port.

[ax] Funny you should say that ... was just looking at that.

[al] French are happy, though.

[ax] No DOW's. No special actions. No alignments.

[ax] Actions. Japan - land, Germany - combine, Italy - land.

[ax] Naval Air. None.

Weather.

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Ronnie

(in reply to rkr1958)

Post #: 258

RE: Axis Only. Ronnie vs Composer99. - 1/26/2020 1:33:46 AM

rkr1958

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Turn 5. May/June 1940. Axis #3.

[ax] German U-boat Moves:
(1) Bay of Biscay. 2-subs to 2 & 1-box. With storms only sub in 2-box has a chance of finding and then only on a 1.
(2) North Sea. sub to 3-box.

[ax] Bay of Biscay (storms). Sub in 2-box initiates.
Search. Axis=2, RN=2. Only the RN, CA Glasgow in 4-box finds.

[al] Glasgow will fight both boxes. I have 2 surprise by my reckoning. That gets me 2A versus the Germans, who will have 1A versus Glasgow, which I believe I can shift down to nothing (which is what I will do if possible).

[ax] Risk. RN no effect.
2 A on 2 German subs.
A on sub 1-box=1, aborted.
A on sub 2-box=4, aborted.
Bloodless naval battle ends.

[ax] Both subs aborted to Kiel. That ends the axis naval combat.

[ax] Axis could initiate with their sub in the North Sea but won't.

German U-boats. Bay-of-Biscay.

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Ronnie

(in reply to rkr1958)

Post #: 259

RE: Axis Only. Ronnie vs Composer99. - 1/26/2020 1:35:41 AM

rkr1958

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Turn 5. May/June 1940. Axis #3. (continued).

[ax] Rail. None.

[ax] Land Combat x 1. Germany vs Lone 4-2 Marseilles MIL. +21 Blitz.
Georges can provide -1.5 in HQ support.
Assume you don't want to?

[al] Correct assumption.

[ax] Land Combat is automatic at +21 B.

[ax] Air Rebase. Germany.
(1) Stuka Ju 87 B (5 Tac) to Belgium 52, 31.
(2) Bf 109 FTR2 (5 a2a, 2 Tac) to Belgium 53, 31.
(3) Ju 52 ATR to Brussels.
(4) Ju 88A1 (4 TAC, 3 SAC) to Brussels.

[ax] Air Rebase. Italy. Ca.135 (2 TAC, 3 SAC) to Tripoli from Bardia.

Western Front.

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Ronnie

(in reply to rkr1958)

Post #: 260

RE: Axis Only. Ronnie vs Composer99. - 1/26/2020 1:40:24 AM

rkr1958

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Turn 5. May/June 1940. Axis #3. (concluded).

[ax] Air Rebase. Japan.
(1) A6M2 (Zero) from Sasebo, Japan to Wuhan, China.
(2) Ki-51 (2 Tac) to Kweilin, China.

[ax] HQ Reorg. None.

[ax] I'll end my impulse here and pass the game file back. 05-MAY-JUNE-1940-Axis-03-EOI.zip sent.

Japanese Strategic Bombing Potential.

{Japan now has fighter unit in position that can escort the Japanese bomber to the Chinese oil point. That would be so nice to knock that out. It's time to start trying.}

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< Message edited by rkr1958 -- 1/26/2020 1:51:37 AM >

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Ronnie

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Post #: 261

RE: Axis Only. Ronnie vs Composer99. - 1/26/2020 3:29:05 AM

Courtenay

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Good grief. You were right not to attack the MIL. Your opponent abandoned the mountains. Unfortunately, he then activated the weather control device, but next impulse the weather should be good, and you will be able to attack Chinese units that aren't in mountains or behind rivers.

I have no idea why he abandoned the mountains. If he can't defend in mountains, he certainly can't defend in clear terrain.

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I thought I knew how to play this game....

(in reply to rkr1958)

Post #: 262

RE: Axis Only. Ronnie vs Composer99. - 1/26/2020 9:32:23 AM

Centuur

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Courtenay

Good grief. You were right not to attack the MIL. Your opponent abandoned the mountains. Unfortunately, he then activated the weather control device, but next impulse the weather should be good, and you will be able to attack Chinese units that aren't in mountains or behind rivers.

I have no idea why he abandoned the mountains. If he can't defend in mountains, he certainly can't defend in clear terrain.

Very surprising move by the Chinese indeed. And I would have attacked that MIL too...

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Peter

(in reply to Courtenay)

Post #: 263

RE: Axis Only. Ronnie vs Composer99. - 1/26/2020 3:35:20 PM

brian brian

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Did the Germans use an Offensive Chit and then not double any units on the first impulse, or did I miss something?

(in reply to Centuur)

Post #: 264

RE: Axis Only. Ronnie vs Composer99. - 1/26/2020 4:11:45 PM

rkr1958

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Turn 5. May/June 1940. Allied #5.

[al] Allied Impulse 5.

[al] No DoWs, alignments, or border claims.

[al] Actions:
China land
CW, France & USSR combined
USA passes

[al] Port Attacks. CW bombs Malta.

[al] Surprise rolls are Italy 1, CW 1. Italy has 1 surprise, so no effect.

[al] No AA result (not enough AA for 1 bomber)

[al] 2 naval bombing factors vs 2 ships is 2 aborts, which isn't particularly helpful.

[ax] Not since they're already flipped. But I guess it's good to make sure. 😀

[al] Well, one can always hope for a good split. The potential was there at any rate.

[ax] absolutely.

[al] No naval air.

[al] Naval Moves:
- HMS Eagle (CVL), Malaya (BB), and Revenge (BB) sail from Port Said to 2 box Eastern Med, where they are joined by HMS Sussex sailing out of Gibraltar.
- French TRS sails from Dakar with Senegalese Dakar MIL embarked to 0 box Bay of Biscay.

[al] Naval Combats
CW can initiate in North Sea & Cape St Vincent, but won't.
CW can initiate in It Coast and Eastern Med, and will

[al] First up, naval combat in the Eastern Med.

[al] CW won't fly any planes, and Axis still don't have any to fly.

[al] Search rolls are CW 6, Italy 8. No combat.

[al] Next up, naval combat in Italian Coast.

[al] CW commits subs, there are no planes to fly.

[al] (Apart from those already at sea, that is.)

[al] Search rolls are CW 4, Italy 1. Both sides' top boxes would have found in fine weather.

[al] But no dice this time.

[al] Ground Strikes
The newly-arrived RAF bombers in Alexandria are striking the Italians near Bardia. Do you want to fire AA?

[ax] I'll pass.

[al] Righty-o.

[al] Hampden hits on 3s. Rolls are:
20 mm (AA gun): 3 hit
CCNN Corps (3-3 INF): 9 miss
HQ Balbo: 3 hit

[ax] Ouch.

[al] Bombers return to Alexandria.

[al] Indeed. I'm not sure the British can make anything of it since they can't call a blitz, but we'll see as the turn goes on I suppose.

[ax] Have you reestablished supply through the East Med?

[al] Not yet. That's another fly in the ointment.

[ax] Ok. Thanks.

[al] Rail Moves:
- CW rails the Sierra Leone TERR from Plymouth to Aberdeen. Poor chaps.
- USSR rails the 4-2 ART gun (stacked with HQ Timoshenko) to Stalino.

[al] Land Moves:
- Sian MIL moves to hex just northeast, stacked with 5th Army (4-1 GARR).
- USSR adjusts positions around Bessarabia & Lvov.
- KMT forces withdraw further into Kweichow Province.
- HQ Wavell and forces stacked with it advance and are adjacent to the hapless Libyan rearguard.
- V Corps (6-4 INF) and 3-2 AT gun leave the French positions in the Ardennes, leaving the Lyons MIL as the sole occupant.
- Dakar MIL disembarks into St-Nazaire.

[al] Land Combats:
Only one combat - the British attack the Libyan rearguard in Egypt.

[al] The combat in Egypt is 13:1 before any modifiers, so no HQ support or shore bombardment.

[al] It's a +21 blitz, so automatically a /-2B result.

[al] MWiF rolls a 12 for the combat die roll.

{I miscalculated here. I thought because of the British supply problems in the East Med that this 1-4 Libyan Terr was save. How wrong I was.}

[al] Rebases:
- None for CW.
- Fr ftr2 in France [55,32] rebases to France [55,31].
- USSR lnd3 near Kyubyshev rebases to not far from Novosibirsk.

[al] No reorg. Sending the game file at French HQ reorg.

[ax] Ok. Will open and made weather roll, but I think that's it for me tonight. Getting tired. We've had a good, but long, day of gaming. 😀

[al] You're telling me! Whew.

[ax] With +2 weather roll modifier at least the axis will get at least one more impulse of fine weather in the north temperate.

[al] Indeed.

[ax] Turn 5. May/June 1940. Axis #7. Weather=9+2=11. Fine everywhere.

[ax] Impulse advance = 1, die roll modifier = 0.

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Ronnie

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Post #: 265

RE: Axis Only. Ronnie vs Composer99. - 1/26/2020 4:33:13 PM

rkr1958

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Turn 5. May/June 1940. Axis #7 (Pre-Impulse Assessment) Weather.

We stopped here last night and I took that break to do an in-depth assessment of where I am and how I should proceed in my next impulse. Before I get to that impulse, which will be shortly, I wanted to provide you with that assessment in the hopes that it will future clarify in my mind how I am to proceed.

First off there are three major theaters of combat that I'm currently focusing on: (1) France, (2) Northern/Central China and (3) Southern China. Theaters (1) & (2) are in the north temperate weather zone and theater 3 is in north monsoon.

So, is this impulse likely to be my last of this turn? I'd say no; i.e., that I'm likely, but not guaranteed, to get another impulse. The chance of getting another impulse is somewhere between 54 to 72%, dependent upon what pass options my opponent takes during his impulse. Though I can't imagine my opponent passing with all (54%) or even all but one (63%) of the allied major powers. That would seem just too risky in that it would effectively give the axis two adjacent impulses in France or China, or both. So my estimate is that I have a 72% chance of getting at least one more impulse (after this one).

Next is weather. Assuming the turn does continue to my next impulse (i.e., Axis #9), there's an 80% chance for fine weather in the north temperate and a 40% chance for fine in the north monsoon. For the north temperate (France and Northern/Central China) this gives me 57.6% chance of getting another impulse with fine weather. While not great, this means that I don't have to, and won't make low probability, high risk of flipping attackers, attacks in France. Likely next axis impulse (if I get one) is the time for that but not this current impulse.

Now, that's not the case for Southern China (i.e., north monsoon). The chance of getting another impulse with fine weather there is 28.8%. So if I have a chance for something but with risk, this seems like the impulse to do that before that chance is wiped by bad weather. In other words, in southern China it's time to make hay while the sun shines!

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Ronnie

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Post #: 266

RE: Axis Only. Ronnie vs Composer99. - 1/26/2020 4:34:42 PM

rkr1958

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quote:

ORIGINAL: brian brian

Did the Germans use an Offensive Chit and then not double any units on the first impulse, or did I miss something?

Yes, they doubled 8 units across the two land combats they made.

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Ronnie

(in reply to brian brian)

Post #: 267

RE: Axis Only. Ronnie vs Composer99. - 1/26/2020 4:35:40 PM

brian brian

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farewell to the "Camel Corps" (which also does not exist in the WIFCE counter mix). A better use for it than the front lines with the British Army is for it to run around elsewhere in Africa in hopes that the Allies eventually have to do something about it. Perhaps with an initial air drop of re-supply if the Italians have a LND3 with a white range circle. After that, maybe 4-5 turns later it might start to threaten something, somewhere.

(in reply to rkr1958)

Post #: 268

RE: Axis Only. Ronnie vs Composer99. - 1/26/2020 4:41:30 PM

rkr1958

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Turn 5. May/June 1940. Axis #7 (Pre-Impulse Assessment) East Med.

Before I get to my three theaters of focus (e.g., France, Northern/Central China, Southern China), I want to cover the East Med/Libya and Egypt.

It's time to get Balbo and the AA gun out if I can. Unfortunately both units were flipped by an effective RAF ground strike last impulse and even if they weren't, both Italian transports are tied up in the Italian Coast. So Balbo is just going to have to hold on and see if he can be rescued next impulse. With nothing to really go on but gut, I give it 50/50 on whether or not Bablo and the AA gun division can successfully be evacuated back to mainland Europe.

The upside is that my feint worked. That is, it drew a heck of a lot of interest, actions and units away from the defense of France and looks like it has ensured no second BEF in France led by Wavell.

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Ronnie

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Post #: 269

RE: Axis Only. Ronnie vs Composer99. - 1/26/2020 4:50:30 PM

rkr1958

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Turn 5. May/June 1940. Axis #7 (Pre-Impulse Assessment) Italian-Franco Border.

I looked at the possibility of the Italians making a push to capture Nice, which would then given them a chance to push on Toulon and Marsellies. While I will almost certainly accept the armistice and Vichy France, this would have the benefit of drawing more French units away from the main battle to the north against the Germans. That is, if the Italian attack on Nice was to succeed.

While a PWIN of 70% looks promising, the 8.5% chance that the Italians would have to lose 3 of the 4 attackers isn't. Also, this result (i.e., the dreaded 14) would give France an opening into Italy and possibly force the Germans to divert resources to shoring that situation up. Even if the attack succeeds without the dreaded 14 there's only a 26% that some of the surviving attackers will not be flipped.

While I considered this attack, I really didn't consider it that seriously given the risk. For the foreseeable future, the Italians on the Italian-Franco border will continue to be a threat in being.