UK out of Merchant Marine by U Boat campaign

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UK out of Merchant Marine by U Boat campaign - 12/28/2019 11:33:21 AM

PanzerMike

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Check this out (playing the AI at historical):

The UK is out Merchant marine if these number are correct. I currently have 11 U bots units operting almost around the clock with occasional rest for repair. This has cost me considerable U boat losses but still very much manageable. And it cost me oil. Together with a pretty active Italian Navy which I supply with 25 oil every turn, this did cause me oil troubles in Barbarossa in the fall of 1941.

Germany at his point has a stockpile of 187 oil and Italy 202. I have 12 Armor and Mech units for Germany (1 Mech is in Africa). Italy has 1 Armor and 2 Mech units (the Armor and 1 Mech are in Africa). Germany has 18 air units, 15 of which operate on the Eastern Front. Italy has 4 air units, all in the Med.

So the U boat campaign did make itself felt on the Eastern Front, but the UK is out of Merchant marine. What does this mean for the UK (I have not played the Allies yet)? And was it worth it?

I thinkI can finish the USSR off in 1942. If I have the oil...

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RE: UK out of Merchant Marine by U Boat campaign - 12/28/2019 3:40:01 PM

AlvaroSousa

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Then you fulfilled Karl D�nitz's dream. He said you needed ~300 subs to bring the UK to her knees and you did it.

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RE: UK out of Merchant Marine by U Boat campaign - 12/28/2019 3:40:26 PM

AlvaroSousa

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If you can send me that save. I want to take a look at it to see if the A.I. is doing something wrong.

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RE: UK out of Merchant Marine by U Boat campaign - 12/28/2019 6:04:44 PM

Chocolino

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quote:

So the U boat campaign did make itself felt on the Eastern Front, but the UK is out of Merchant marine. What does this mean for the UK (I have not played the Allies yet)? And was it worth it?

First of all - a great exercise. Most games in this genre don't allow for a meaningful U-boat campaign (meaning you can do it but it does not pay off). Would be great if War Plan is the exception. If there is a strong trade-off then this is only fair.

But I was also wondering if the lack of merchant marine actually hurts the British. As German - when I lack merchant marine for the Swedish Iron Ore transport - the Swedes make up the difference. If that is the case for the British as well then the sub war does obviously not pay off. I hope this "making up" is only available for a small missing quantity of merchantmen. (So far then biggest discrepancy I have experienced was 3 short - which is not much).

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RE: UK out of Merchant Marine by U Boat campaign - 12/28/2019 7:11:56 PM

AlvaroSousa

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It does hurt them.

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RE: UK out of Merchant Marine by U Boat campaign - 12/28/2019 8:03:57 PM

PanzerMike

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Alvaro Sousa

If you can send me that save. I want to take a look at it to see if the A.I. is doing something wrong.

https://www.dropbox.com/s/oo48s0qijpuqvc4/4d_Barbarossa26.sav?dl=0

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RE: UK out of Merchant Marine by U Boat campaign - 12/28/2019 8:04:55 PM

PanzerMike

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Alvaro Sousa

It does hurt them.

Care to elaborate on that?

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RE: UK out of Merchant Marine by U Boat campaign - 12/28/2019 9:58:18 PM

AlvaroSousa

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Someone asked if the lack of MM hurts the UK. Of course it does. They get resources from Canada and the Pacific.

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RE: UK out of Merchant Marine by U Boat campaign - 12/29/2019 6:51:38 AM

Meteor2

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The following describes the situation of the UK import end of 1942:

https://history.army.mil/books/70-7_08.htm (U.S. Merchant Shipping and the British Import Crisis, page 204 and 205)

"During the last quarter of 1942 imports came in at an annual rate of only about 20 million tons, which was at least 6 million tons less than the total consumption for that year. In January 1943 imports fell to the lowest point, as it proved, of the whole war-less than half the level of January 1941, nearly 42 percent less than in January 1942-and by February the British had to revise downward their estimate of the amount of imports they could expect to carry in their own shipping. ...
Food stocks had fallen by the end of 1942 to a level that would support wartime consumption for only three or four months, and for certain important items the level was even lower."

That means obviously, that at the end of 1942 the british economy was hurted seriously.
So, I think, in game dimensions the mentioned situation with only 10 merchants left should have cripped the UK long before this situation (10 of 254 is 4% left).

The question that Alvaro has not answered is, how much imports (merchants groups) are needed to maintain the UK industry and keep the population alive.
3 month of food remaining is a crisis indeed.

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RE: UK out of Merchant Marine by U Boat campaign - 12/29/2019 12:03:30 PM

AlvaroSousa

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Look at the MM theu need to what they have extra. Look at the resources they get overseas. If you wipe it all out they get what's in England that's it and no oil

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RE: UK out of Merchant Marine by U Boat campaign - 12/29/2019 12:42:41 PM

aspqrz02

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Historically England had a domestic Oil Shale production capacity equal to about 5 OIL in WarPlan terms according to League of Nations 1939 data.

So, bugger all oil, but not NO oil.

That's what my Historical Map Mod shows, anyway!

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RE: UK out of Merchant Marine by U Boat campaign - 12/29/2019 2:42:37 PM

AlvaroSousa

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Shale in England?

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RE: UK out of Merchant Marine by U Boat campaign - 12/29/2019 2:47:29 PM

tyronec

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If we are getting pedantic, how about no oil use for the early coal driven battleships !

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RE: UK out of Merchant Marine by U Boat campaign - 12/29/2019 3:31:18 PM

AlvaroSousa

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Now I need to make a coal resource to accumulate.

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RE: UK out of Merchant Marine by U Boat campaign - 12/29/2019 7:13:44 PM

Journier

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Alvaro Sousa

Now I need to make a coal resource to accumulate.

hah I wish.

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RE: UK out of Merchant Marine by U Boat campaign - 12/29/2019 9:06:03 PM

battlevonwar

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Great thread, love the fact, "Battle of the Atlantic could be simulated."

5 oil won't go far for the British but a syn. oil plant down the road could be nice for her? She had the same industrial capacity as Germany or close to it? Advanced as well...coal abundant...

My Grand Dad was in the UK Merchant Marine they took the highest losses if I'm not mistaken of any branch in the UK Military. That's how effective U-boats were. I like this thread.

It proves it can be done. Similar to what the US Silent Service did to the Japanese(destroyed most of their shipping).

quote:

ORIGINAL: aspqrz02

Historically England had a domestic Oil Shale production capacity equal to about 5 OIL in WarPlan terms according to League of Nations 1939 data.

So, bugger all oil, but not NO oil.

That's what my Historical Map Mod shows, anyway!

Phil McGregor

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RE: UK out of Merchant Marine by U Boat campaign - 12/29/2019 10:22:11 PM

aspqrz02

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Alvaro Sousa
Shale in England?

According to the League of Nations statistical Report for 1939 the UK produced 218,000 metric tons of Benzol, some of which was used for petrol additives as an anti knock agent AND ALSO produced ~150,000 tons of oil from coal hydrogenation PLUS 131,000 tons of oil from Oil Shale ... around half of what Germany produced ... hence 5 OIL compared to Germany's 10 OIL from synthetic sources.

The link to the LoN document can be found close to the top of ...

https://history.stackexchange.com/questions/33809/circa-1940-what-was-the-oil-production-of-each-nation

Phil McGregor

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RE: UK out of Merchant Marine by U Boat campaign - 12/29/2019 10:45:57 PM

Flaviusx

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Well, I'm glad it is possible to do this. I am less sure it is worth it, but at least the option is there now.

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RE: UK out of Merchant Marine by U Boat campaign - 1/8/2020 4:19:49 AM

JagWars

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This game like most WW2 games puts too much emphasis on the U-boat war. Approximately 10% of the convoys crossing the Atlantic Ocean was attacked by U-boats and of those only about 10% of the ships were sunk. More than 99% of all Merchant shipping to and from the UK reached their destination (Blair, Clay, Jr. (1996a). Hitler's U-Boat War: The Hunters 1939�1942. V.I. Cassell. ISBN 978-0-304-35260-9; Hitler's U-Boat War: The Hunted 1942�1945. V.II. Cassell. ISBN 978-0-304-35261-6)

If the UK production was entirely dependent upon imports, then total production would have been reduced by only 1%. The following link is a good analysis of the ration between imports and domestic production [link=https://jmss.org/article/download/57815/43489]

The myth that U-boats came close to crippling UK production was championed by post-war German authors, who wanted to create heroes and a sense or pride for a defeated nation, exaggerated and glorified the success of the German submariners and by during the war by Allied leaders to create a common enemy and garner sympathy from the US population in order to sway their government into joining the war (Levine, Alan J. (1991). "Was World War II a near-run thing?". In Lee, Loyd E. (ed.). World War II: crucible of the contemporary world. M. E. Sharpe. ISBN 978-0-87332-731-2).

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RE: UK out of Merchant Marine by U Boat campaign - 1/8/2020 5:26:20 AM

abulbulian

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quote:

ORIGINAL: JagWars

This game like most WW2 games puts too much emphasis on the U-boat war. Approximately 10% of the convoys crossing the Atlantic Ocean was attacked by U-boats and of those only about 10% of the ships were sunk. More than 99% of all Merchant shipping to and from the UK reached their destination (Blair, Clay, Jr. (1996a). Hitler's U-Boat War: The Hunters 1939�1942. V.I. Cassell. ISBN 978-0-304-35260-9; Hitler's U-Boat War: The Hunted 1942�1945. V.II. Cassell. ISBN 978-0-304-35261-6)

If the UK production was entirely dependent upon imports, then total production would have been reduced by only 1%. The following link is a good analysis of the ration between imports and domestic production [link=https://jmss.org/article/download/57815/43489]

The myth that U-boats came close to crippling UK production was championed by post-war German authors, who wanted to create heroes and a sense or pride for a defeated nation, exaggerated and glorified the success of the German submariners and by during the war by Allied leaders to create a common enemy and garner sympathy from the US population in order to sway their government into joining the war (Levine, Alan J. (1991). "Was World War II a near-run thing?". In Lee, Loyd E. (ed.). World War II: crucible of the contemporary world. M. E. Sharpe. ISBN 978-0-87332-731-2).

Sorry Jag, but you are drinking some sort of crazy fictional cool-aide. First of all it was no myth and it's almost always the winners that write the history, not the loser. Case and point most of the east front battles. There's a reason why the stats on the battles of Rzhev we left out for many decades after WW2. So get this fact right in your brain to start. This is so blatantly false " More than 99% of all Merchant shipping to and from the UK reached their destination" for the period of 1939-1945. If it had not been for the monumental effort of US ship building, Ultra, and the development of ASW tech, the allies merchant marine would have almost cease to be a factor. Britain was down to very low levels of oil reserves a few years into the u-boat campaign / battle of the Atlantic. You can't win a modern war without oil.

Please expand your knowledge by reading up with a few more books/authors

Terraine, John. Business in Great Waters: The U-Boat Wars, 1916-1945, London: Leo Cooper, 1989
Miller, Nathan. War at Sea - A Naval History of World War II, New York: Scribner, 1995
Hitler's U-Boat War: The Hunted. 1942-1945, Clay Blair, New York: Random House, 1998
Jonathan Dimbleby - The Battle of the Atlantic: How the Allies Won the War, 2015

I can get you more too if needed.

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< Message edited by abulbulian -- 1/8/2020 5:39:01 AM >

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RE: UK out of Merchant Marine by U Boat campaign - 1/8/2020 3:51:25 PM

AlvaroSousa

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In a game there is history and there is game play. You kind of have to mix the two.

If I really wanted history I would have a power plant resource and allow the Allies to bomb it.

Now the problem with that is that they did bomb power plan facilities. I forgot which year but the Germans were 1 city being fire bombed away from not having enough power because the power plants got blown up. So if the Allies exclusively focused on power plants in Germany they would have brought them to their knees. But you can't do that in a game.

Anyways the A.I. isn't as good as a human in dealing with this. I had to add some extra code to compensate for this attack so the A.I. does better.

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RE: UK out of Merchant Marine by U Boat campaign - 1/8/2020 9:59:29 PM

aspqrz02

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The story I heard is that the Allies (the US?) were told by a special (interest) working party that the German electric network was vulnerable to attacks against major electrical switching facilities and that, if a significant number of these were damaged/destroyed it would KO large portions of the electric net ... to prevent the remaining isolated transmission areas from being overloaded (like that huge power outage in the NE US several years ago due to ice storms? or whatever!).

The problem that the working party didn't mention was that it required precision targeting at a level quite impossible to achieve for the allies in WW2 (and possibly even today) ... the Allies were never able to KO German Synthetic (and other) Oil plants permanently either, for the same reason, and their attacks against THEM only became more effective as the war wore on because the existing damage couldn't be fully repaired to 'as new' status and increasingly distant 'near misses' were able to do damage to the more fragile repaired parts ... the accuracy of the attacks against them did NOT increase.

The 'power switching plan' was rejected, as I understand it, because it was deemed too uncertain ... no one, not even the experts who proposed it, was certain (until after the war, and maybe not even then) how many thousands of tons of bombs would have had to have been dumped on the general area of such a target to actually knock it out* permanently and, indeed, they weren't even certain as to how many of these switching plants existed or exactly where all of them were.

* Many German factories supposedly 'destroyed' by allied bombing ... weren't ... the Germans found that factory *buildings* were very vulnerable, but that the heavy machinery was *much* less so, and many plants could be put back into operation by simply clearing away the rubble and keeping the plant running 'in the open' so to speak.

The Strategic Bombing Campaign didn't win the war single-handedly as its supporters claim, but it wasn't the complete waste of space its detractors claim either ... it certainly helped win the war, significantly, but only by application of force over several years.

Phil McGregor

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RE: UK out of Merchant Marine by U Boat campaign - 1/8/2020 10:22:55 PM

battlevonwar

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I read the Allies had issues with accuracy repeatedly. To back up Phil, one instance of the Americans and British trying to knock out a rail line took somewhere like 2 fleets of American and British Bombers of hundreds or more and both missed it entirely. Saw a lovely photograph and don't remember the precise numbers. But the notorious inaccuracy of the Allied Strategic Bombing Campaign cannot be understated.
However, 353,000�635,000 civilians killed, including foreign workers in Germany in alone. 60k-100k in Italy... I think that Eventually some of the saturation was effective and at least the workers were killed which would slow down production if the bombings did not. ~Wiki

< Message edited by battlevonwar -- 1/8/2020 10:23:38 PM >

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RE: UK out of Merchant Marine by U Boat campaign - 1/9/2020 6:27:17 AM

aspqrz02

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The thing is, the Bomber lobby in both the UK and the US WAY oversold the capabilities of their aircraft ... shades of Douhetism!

The accuracy of the Bombers in typical northern European weather (bad) was as bad as night-time bombing (or very close to it) ... only on those days where there was good weather (a minority) was the accuracy OK, but still nowhere near as good as it was claimed it was going to be.

The problem was that the loss rate was really unsustainable for the RAF and close to it for the USAAF (the number of required missions before rotation home kept rising, and some crews were sent back for a second tour before the end of the war) ... the RAF went over to night bombing and the USAAF tried all sorts of dodges, but never managed to get their accuracy up.

"An example of the difficulties of precision bombing was a raid in the Northern Hemisphere summer of 1944 by 47 B-29's on Japan's Yawata Steel Works from bases in China. Only one plane actually hit the target area, and only with one of its bombs. This single 500 lb (230 kg) general-purpose bomb represented one quarter of one percent of the 376 bombs dropped over Yawata on that mission. It took 108 B-17 bombers, crewed by 1,080 airmen, dropping 648 bombs to guarantee a 96 percent chance of getting just two hits inside a 400 x 500 ft (150 m) German power-generation plant."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Precision_bombing#World_War_II

That's why the Power Plant/Switching Plant plan didn't go anywhere.

The thing was, a lot of the damage was actually CUMULATIVE. The oil plants could be repaired quickly when seals and valves were ruptured, but the repairs could only be slap and patch and, eventually, there were repairs on repairs and the repairs became more and more vulnerable to more and more distant 'near misses' ... likewise, a lot of the pipe in such plants which, early in the war, was unaffected by near misses became more and more stressed and, eventually, would rupture from less and less distant near misses.

The thing that killed the Germans was the Transportation Campaign of 1944-45 ... the allied Strategic AND Tactical Air Forces targeted not only bridges, but tracks, repair and maintenance facilities and, counterintuitively, switching yards.

Switching Yards were large open areas full of nothing much but a network of tracks and switches that allowed train consists to be broken down or made up with minimum effort, often by the use of gravity ... but they were LARGE areas ... so even piss poor accuracy could KO more and more of the tracks and, more importantly, the switching and signalling gear.

By early 1945 the Germans were actually reduced to pushing currently un-needed RR rolling stock OFF THE TRACKS (effectively rendering them useless without extensive repairs) to make up new train consists ... they were THAT desperate.

According to Strategic Bombing Survey by early 1945 trains in Germany could only 'safely' run at night and could travel only an average of 12 miles (~20 klicks) before running into an obstacle (downed bridge, bombed track, destroyed train etc.) that prevented further movement.

The TAFs were set to basically strafing any train they saw, even Fighters got in the act ... and MG bullets will happily blow a boiler on a steam train (and probably won't do the diesel or electrics on diesel or diesel electric any good either) ... and they even began strafing and bombing the River Barges that moved a HUGE percentage of German industrial goods.

IF they'd done some or all of that earlier, then the Germans would have had a hard time of it.

Of course, you don't seem to be able to bomb RR capacity in WarPlan.

Phil McGregor

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RE: UK out of Merchant Marine by U Boat campaign - 1/9/2020 11:25:54 PM

AlvaroSousa

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Ok so I found where the problem was.

The sub war is fine if the Germans use small groups per lane. The issue comes when they use large groups per lane. Stacking 9 subs in the North Atlantic even in 1943 will cause havoc.

So let me come up with a solution to this on Friday and hopefully have a beta patch.

Probably what happened was no one was spending money on subs and now everyone is and this flaw was in there before.

I am thinking of limiting 3 subs per hex just like 3 CVs per hex.

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RE: UK out of Merchant Marine by U Boat campaign - 1/10/2020 12:21:32 AM

aspqrz02

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It's not the number of Subs PER HEX but the NUMBER OF SUBS available.

The Construction time, especially now its reduced to 100 days, is WAY too short ...historically it was around 12 months and all the Subs available from September 1939 to August 1940 were actually pre-war starts ... they should be in the *reniforcement* queue ... and any 1939+ production should take 360 days ...

That way you don't, and probably cannot, have the ridiculous numbers of U-Boats early in the war.

I strongly suspect that both the number of Dockyards needed per sub group are too few and the cost of a Sub Group too little as well.

Increasing the number of Dockyards plus increased construction times would certainly force the Germans to take a longer view.

Phil

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RE: UK out of Merchant Marine by U Boat campaign - 1/10/2020 1:30:52 AM

ago1000

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The bottom line is the sub unit is being used in a gamey manner. Alvaro is right, it requires tweaking. I've duplicated PanzerMike's results with 15 subs. A group of 9 and 6 attacking the Arctic Route to Russia. I don't know much about history nor anything about Naval combat, especially in the Atlantic. But I would guess Search and Destroy (Allies) and Hide, Hit and Run(Axis) strategies are in play here in simple terms. If you take the Wolfpack unit, as is, 10-15 active subs and place 9 of them together, 90 to 135 active subs in a sea hex they would have been easily detected, hunted down and destroyed (Did that ever happen in history, 135 subs in a location? If so, how did it turn out?). If you're going to have 9 fleets together of any kind then their detection level should sky rocket. Even the compositions of fleets is very difficult to simulate because a US Carrier Group would be comprised of a total different number of supporting ships, escorts than a CV British, Japanese or Italian CV group. It could be that Alvaro may have to limit subs to be only one group at sea, and/or increase construction time and/or change the detection levels if you combine too many fleets together. After the changes are made, then game balance can be revisited. Very long process but still an Awesome game!!!!

< Message edited by ago1000 -- 1/10/2020 2:43:10 AM >

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RE: UK out of Merchant Marine by U Boat campaign - 1/10/2020 2:30:51 AM

battlevonwar

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Hmmm, ago1000, against the AI you achieved these results? Is there a human counter that you would choose to employ that could have any counter-play? How much production, oil maintenance and repair cost goes into that strategy vs how much it sinks? Got the math?

P.S. Checked the build times on convoys and escorts vs Subs. Wow ... nearly double the speed ... When they cost so much nobody built them.

< Message edited by battlevonwar -- 1/10/2020 2:48:36 AM >

(in reply to ago1000)

Post #: 28

RE: UK out of Merchant Marine by U Boat campaign - 1/10/2020 2:49:12 AM

ago1000

Posts: 856
Joined: 8/6/2004
From: Canada
Status: offline

Yes against the AI with Seasoned and Optimal AI Setting. I haven't done the Math. This game was started with 1.00.04f.

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< Message edited by ago1000 -- 1/10/2020 2:52:28 AM >

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(in reply to battlevonwar)

Post #: 29

RE: UK out of Merchant Marine by U Boat campaign - 1/10/2020 2:49:19 AM

AlvaroSousa

Posts: 9927
Joined: 7/29/2013
Status: offline

I tested the 1943 scenario and at this point the PP swing should be in the Allies favor and it is clearly in the Axis favor. The convoy lines try and mimic how it was really fought.

There was a limit on how many escorts were required to make convoy defense effective. In the game it is 10 for maximum effectiveness. The advancement improves their kill ratios. So if on the same convoy you have a 3 subs in 3 different hexes those escorts will defend and fight vs all 3 subs separately.

As it is now when 9 are stacked vs the max of 10 it is like 9 groups vs 2 groups and the escorts lose badly.

So I will work on this on Friday to try and get out a beta for the weekend try outs. Meanwhile I would suggest trying a 1, 2, or 3 sub house rule per hex.. except ports of course.

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Creator Kraken Studios
- WarPlan
- WarPlan Pacific

Designer Strategic Command
- Brute Force (mod) SC2
- Assault on Communism SC2
- Assault on Democracy SC2
- Map Image Importer SC3

(in reply to battlevonwar)

Post #: 30