Slitherine

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lobster

It's just that it's annoying to see people ganging up on others who have an opinion.

England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805

quote:

ORIGINAL: gamer78

Since both my parents +70 I did grocery shop for them also bought beer and rakı: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rak%C4%B1
Gaming while drinking for me.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Zovs

The problem is and what I am getting tired of is the false and fear mongering doom and gloom posts that Bob is posting and that Jack is radically defending and then calling anyone who opposes the viewpoints of Bob horrible names (i.e. personal attacks).

This is turning into a zoo because of this behavior.

There is absolutely nothing wrong with mature adults having a reasonable dialog and if they disagree on formulas or bad or incorrect math or data and then point it out.

What is wrong is when Bob keeps posting those incorrect and false speculations of mass death and someone points out his data and formulas are incorrect, and he just ignores you and says he is right and you are wrong (no used trying to talk to a brick-wall), and then Jack hopes in and calls or attacks the other person challenging the the bad data and incorrect formulas.

Hence this has turned into a zoo and play ground now instead of a decent place to have a conversation.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lobster

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lava

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lobster
Prove it.

In the one country which first started large scale testing (South Korea) and where the numbers published can be somewhat believable (almost certainly still lots of folks who had it but weren't confirmed)...

South Korea has 8961 confirmed cases and 111 deaths. That is a 0.012 death rate.

See right there you made an error. You are making an assumption that every case was tested.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Zovs

The problem is and what I am getting tired of is the false and fear mongering doom and gloom posts that Bob is posting and that Jack is radically defending and then calling anyone who opposes the viewpoints of Bob horrible names (i.e. personal attacks).

quote:

ORIGINAL: GaryChildress

One thing I haven't seen a lot of in the news is WHAT DO YOU DO IF YOU GET THE CORONA VIRUS?????

Suppose the hospitals are full, how do you fight it at home. Should you drink a lot of fluids, eat a lot of vitamin C foods, etc to build up your immune system? Or what is the best way to fight the disease if you get it????

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lobster

Really? When a group of people bash one individual what do you call that? Whether it's orchestrated or not the purpose is to silence someone.

And again you are approaching this like you live in Iceland and seeing that there is a volcanic eruption in Japan you evacuate off shore so it doesn't affect you. Or at least that's your argument.

Look at the numbers in your city. That is what you need to worry about. Not what is happening in another country. You can't do anything about them.

England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805

quote:

ORIGINAL: GaryChildress

One thing I haven't seen a lot of in the news is WHAT DO YOU DO IF YOU GET THE CORONA VIRUS?????

Suppose the hospitals are full, how do you fight it at home. Should you drink a lot of fluids, eat a lot of vitamin C foods, etc to build up your immune system? Or what is the best way to fight the disease if you get it????

quote:

Cytokine release syndrome (CRS) is a form of systemic inflammatory response syndrome that can be triggered by a variety of factors such as infections and certain drugs. It occurs when large numbers of white blood cells are activated and release inflammatory cytokines, which in turn activate yet more white blood cells. CRS is also an adverse effect of some monoclonal antibody drugs, as well as adoptive T-cell therapies. Severe cases have been called cytokine storms. When occurring as a result of drug administration, it is also known as an infusion reaction.

quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

I hate to sound crass, but you have to die from something unless you are immortal. That said, it might just aggravate existing conditions such as asthma, heart problems, and other issues. Live your life but take sensible precautions. Actually, the proper mask can help the non-infected stay that way by not breathing in the pathogens but you can still get sick from catching the various illness causing pathogens some other way.

quote:

ORIGINAL: ThunderLizard2

quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

I hate to sound crass, but you have to die from something unless you are immortal. That said, it might just aggravate existing conditions such as asthma, heart problems, and other issues. Live your life but take sensible precautions. Actually, the proper mask can help the non-infected stay that way by not breathing in the pathogens but you can still get sick from catching the various illness causing pathogens some other way.

Yeah but if Covid-19 gets you now you will have lost out on many hours of gaming...

quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

quote:

ORIGINAL: GaryChildress

One thing I haven't seen a lot of in the news is WHAT DO YOU DO IF YOU GET THE CORONA VIRUS?????

Suppose the hospitals are full, how do you fight it at home. Should you drink a lot of fluids, eat a lot of vitamin C foods, etc to build up your immune system? Or what is the best way to fight the disease if you get it????

Of you get sick, stay home.

I have posted these before, I suggest that you read them:

quote:

Cytokine release syndrome (CRS) is a form of systemic inflammatory response syndrome that can be triggered by a variety of factors such as infections and certain drugs. It occurs when large numbers of white blood cells are activated and release inflammatory cytokines, which in turn activate yet more white blood cells. CRS is also an adverse effect of some monoclonal antibody drugs, as well as adoptive T-cell therapies. Severe cases have been called cytokine storms. When occurring as a result of drug administration, it is also known as an infusion reaction.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cytokine_release_syndrome

Cytokine Storm and Herbs: Life or Death Information!

https://www.naturalmedicinemamas.com/nmm-blog/cytokine-storm-and-herbs-life-or-death-information

quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

quote:

ORIGINAL: GaryChildress

One thing I haven't seen a lot of in the news is WHAT DO YOU DO IF YOU GET THE CORONA VIRUS?????

Suppose the hospitals are full, how do you fight it at home. Should you drink a lot of fluids, eat a lot of vitamin C foods, etc to build up your immune system? Or what is the best way to fight the disease if you get it????

Of you get sick, stay home.

I have posted these before, I suggest that you read them:

quote:

Cytokine release syndrome (CRS) is a form of systemic inflammatory response syndrome that can be triggered by a variety of factors such as infections and certain drugs. It occurs when large numbers of white blood cells are activated and release inflammatory cytokines, which in turn activate yet more white blood cells. CRS is also an adverse effect of some monoclonal antibody drugs, as well as adoptive T-cell therapies. Severe cases have been called cytokine storms. When occurring as a result of drug administration, it is also known as an infusion reaction.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cytokine_release_syndrome

Cytokine Storm and Herbs: Life or Death Information!

https://www.naturalmedicinemamas.com/nmm-blog/cytokine-storm-and-herbs-life-or-death-information

Ranger Joe-the 'natural medicine' article you posted is entirely without peer review merit. Nobody thinks Tumeric is going to prevent cytokine cascade. Please don't post such unapproved home remedies here.

quote:

Curcumin suppression of cytokine release and cytokine storm. A potential therapy for patients with Ebola and other severe viral infections.

Abstract
BACKGROUND:

The terminal stage of Ebola and other viral diseases is often the onset of a cytokine storm, the massive overproduction of cytokines by the body's immune system.
MATERIALS AND METHODS:

The actions of curcumin in suppressing cytokine release and cytokine storm are discussed.
RESULTS:

Curcumin blocks cytokine release, most importantly the key pro-inflammatory cytokines, interleukin-1, interleukin-6 and tumor necrosis factor-α. The suppression of cytokine release by curcumin correlates with clinical improvement in experimental models of disease conditions where a cytokine storm plays a significant role in mortality.
CONCLUSION:

The use of curcumin should be investigated in patients with Ebola and cytokine storm. Intravenous formulations may allow achievement of therapeutic blood levels of curcumin.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

quote:

ORIGINAL: loki100

Bob's mindset is he doesn't understand two and half millenia of work in predictive/multivariate statistics (& as a field it is that old).

I'm pretty sure that pandemics weren't spread by jet aircraft 2.5 millennia ago. There has never been a pandemic like this one. Old models are just guesswork.

quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lobster

Really? When a group of people bash one individual what do you call that? Whether it's orchestrated or not the purpose is to silence someone.

And again you are approaching this like you live in Iceland and seeing that there is a volcanic eruption in Japan you evacuate off shore so it doesn't affect you. Or at least that's your argument.

Look at the numbers in your city. That is what you need to worry about. Not what is happening in another country. You can't do anything about them.

warspite1

a) it's not 'bashing' an individual - I have no reason or wish to 'bash' Curtis Lemay personally, but its pointing out just how wrong his posting of that 'calculation' is - and the number of people that have done so is perhaps a clue? There is a difference between 'bashing' and getting one's point across. It's called a debate and people are allowed to express an opinion. Or are you of the view that once one person (two? three?) voice their opinion, further comment by others is not allowed? Even though they may have different angles and different strands to the debate? What is the correct number of people that may voice an opinion? So when there was an interminable argument about time stamps in TOAW why did you feel the need to 'gang up' on the guy arguing with Curtis Lemay? He had it all covered so wasn't your input superfluous? Or were you just expressing your opinion as you are fully entitled to do, and which is what has happened here?

I don't seek to silence him, that is absurd. I hoped he would be sufficiently aware of the situation, take on board the cogent arguments against posting that data in isolation, but if not, at least to add an appropriate caveat to the limitations of his %. But he chooses not to. He prefers the big scary, meaningless numbers without context approach. This is a serious situation and I think that is irresponsible.

b) please don't tell me how I personally should be approaching this. Your Japan/Iceland eruption is as pertinent to the situation as his ridiculous coins in the air. I should be looking at the numbers in my city only should I? I look at the numbers in my county, city, country, Europe, the world. I seek to educate myself on this topic as much as I can. So thanks for telling me how I should be viewing this and what I need to worry about, but I'll pass if its all the same.

quote:

ORIGINAL: loki100

quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

quote:

ORIGINAL: loki100

Bob's mindset is he doesn't understand two and half millenia of work in predictive/multivariate statistics (& as a field it is that old).

I'm pretty sure that pandemics weren't spread by jet aircraft 2.5 millennia ago. There has never been a pandemic like this one. Old models are just guesswork.

sequence of blogs on some of the methodological issues in modelling the spread and impact of the virus.

the link is to #3 in the series but it contains links back to the first 2. Author makes no pretence to being right, reviews the main models adopted by policy makers and, using non-mathematical terms, works through the underlying assumptions.

https://sacswebsite.blogspot.com/2020/03/part-3-simulation-and-coronavirus.html

Its interesting what 2,500 years of methodological development (incl Archimedes counting cows) can get you to. Not so much the right answer but the tools to explore the underlying question.

quote:

ORIGINAL: loki100

sequence of blogs on some of the methodological issues in modelling the spread and impact of the virus.

the link is to #3 in the series but it contains links back to the first 2. Author makes no pretence to being right, reviews the main models adopted by policy makers and, using non-mathematical terms, works through the underlying assumptions.

https://sacswebsite.blogspot.com/2020/03/part-3-simulation-and-coronavirus.html

Its interesting what 2,500 years of methodological development (incl Archimedes counting cows) can get you to. Not so much the right answer but the tools to explore the underlying question.

quote:

If, for the most part, the wider health systems don't collapse 1-5% (pick a number you're going to be as wrong as anyone else), if they do then I'd go for 10-15% (possibly hugher) for all the reasons that Franciscus gives.