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July 1917: The fall of Austria-Hungary

 
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July 1917: The fall of Austria-Hungary - 3/1/2020 8:24:28 PM   
The Land

 

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Status: offline 		July 1917: The fall of Austria-Hungary

When the end came, it came quickly.

On 7 July Radoslavov, the Prime Minister of Bulgaria, met with General Dubail, commander-in-chief of Entente forces in the area. The Bulgarian army had been reduced to a small rump occupying Plevna on the Romanian border, and the 'die in the last ditch' attitude of the Bulgarian Tsar Ferdinand III had resulted in a palace coup forcing his abdication (not that he had a palace any more).

On hearing of the collapse of Austria-Hungary, German national morale collapsed to 5%. The last domino topples.
The news that Austria-Hungary's last ally in the area in the Balkans was finally capitulating was the signal every nationalist, socialist and liberal in every constituent nation of the old Empire was waiting for. The army collapsed with mass desertions, and in Poland, Hungary and Czechoslovakia new national governments formed militias from returning troops and declared war on Germany to secure legitimacy with the Entente powers.

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July 1917: Hinky-Dinky Parlez-Vous - 3/1/2020 8:32:40 PM   
The Land

 

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Germany might be on the ropes, but the war must still be won.

Below is the situation on the Western Front as of mid-July 1917. As you can see what was previously known as the Ardennes Front, now the Ruhr Front, lies wide open after British troops were able to secure the obstacle of Aachen. The city of Dusseldorf in the Ruhr is only screened by a cavalry corps and the British and Belgians should be able to threaten it next turn. There is also a planned French assault on the fortress at Metz.

Given the state of German National Morale, succeeding in either of these objectives will probably be enough to cause Germany to surrender.




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July 1917: The Fat Lady Sings - 3/1/2020 8:44:19 PM   
The Land

 

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This is the end of the 14 July 1917 turn. The Belgian Army has managed to take Dusseldorf at the far end of a general advance of the northern section of the front, anchored on Luxemburg which is now in French hands. The Front has advanced further in one month than in the previous two years of warfare. Metz has been taken.

The German position is now dire with their trench-lines outflanked, the industrial heartland of the Ruhr a battlezone, and not the slightest sign of the German army being able to slow down the pace of the Entente advance. Not to mention the imminent arrival of Russian and Romanian forces into Bohemia, Moravia and Poland.

The Kaiser surrenders.




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RE: July 1917: The Fat Lady Sings - 3/1/2020 10:05:19 PM   
eightroomofelixir

 

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Status: offline 		Congratulations to your victory! This is the most beautiful AAR I ever seen.

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RE: July 1917: The Fat Lady Sings - 3/2/2020 7:25:36 AM   
FOARP

 

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Status: offline 		Good AAR. The German AI seems particularly vulnerable to a collapse in morale - historically they held on until late 1918, but (in game terms) the CP had by then conquered large parts of Russia, Poland, Ukraine, Romania, Serbia, Montenegro and most of Albania and would have had morale boosts from each sufficient to fight another year.

Another issue is the way the German AI throws away its navy, which really impacts German morale.

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RE: July 1917: The Fat Lady Sings - 3/2/2020 12:23:30 PM   
The Land

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: eightroomofelixir

Congratulations to your victory! This is the most beautiful AAR I ever seen.


Thank you! Glad you've enjoyed it :)

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RE: July 1917: The Fat Lady Sings - 3/2/2020 12:34:12 PM   
The Land

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: FOARP

Good AAR. The German AI seems particularly vulnerable to a collapse in morale - historically they held on until late 1918, but (in game terms) the CP had by then conquered large parts of Russia, Poland, Ukraine, Romania, Serbia, Montenegro and most of Albania and would have had morale boosts from each sufficient to fight another year.

Another issue is the way the German AI throws away its navy, which really impacts German morale.


Thanks!

And yes, there's a few things going on with the morale collapse.

1) I was surprised just how much of a loss there was from the Ottomans and then Bulgarians dropping out. I was expecting some, for sure. But it felt massive.
2) The AI's ongoing temptation to conduct low-odds attacks, throwing away its strength and NM. In terms of strength this is mainly compensated for by giving the AI extra MPP
3) Navies - actually, the Germans didn't lose a huge amount of their navy - most of it was intact at the end of the war!

If I was doing this again, I would set the difficulty to Intermediate or higher the difficulty settings trigger AI helper events, including NM bonuses as well as free units.

I also wonder whether the penalty for an allied nation being defeated should be lower. As everyone's NM falls perpetually through the game, you already get a large benefit from the bonus from conquering somewhere. If your opponent gets a penalty as well then the whole effect has twice the magnitude.


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RE: July 1917: The Fat Lady Sings - 3/2/2020 8:42:23 PM   
eightroomofelixir

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: The Land
3) Navies - actually, the Germans didn't lose a huge amount of their navy - most of it was intact at the end of the war!


Interesting. In my several Entente playthroughs (the difficulty is Intermediate), the German AI always move their entire fleet into the North Sea in summer 1916.
First they move along the Norway convoy line, and once they reach the NM hexs, the entire fleet will launch a suicide attack against the British fleets in the Scapa Flow, get eliminated in the process.
I wish the German AI (at least in the Intermediate difficulty) can take the idea of Fleet In Being seriously, because the end of High Sea Fleet equals huge moral lost (although not as huge as continuing blockade, but still).

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RE: July 1917: The Fat Lady Sings - 3/3/2020 6:39:49 AM   
The Land

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: eightroomofelixir

Interesting. In my several Entente playthroughs (the difficulty is Intermediate), the German AI always move their entire fleet into the North Sea in summer 1916.
First they move along the Norway convoy line, and once they reach the NM hexs, the entire fleet will launch a suicide attack against the British fleets in the Scapa Flow, get eliminated in the process.
I wish the German AI (at least in the Intermediate difficulty) can take the idea of Fleet In Being seriously, because the end of High Sea Fleet equals huge moral lost (although not as huge as continuing blockade, but still).


I believe the AI was updated in the latest patch to stop it doing this :)

Actually in this game the Germans did exactly that, but only with destroyers - so they lost 8 destroyer units. Their capital ships were largely intact though.


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RE: July 1917: The Fat Lady Sings - 3/3/2020 8:37:02 PM   
eightroomofelixir

 

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Status: offline 		That will be really nice. I did finished my playthough before the latest patch so Germans were still invested in suicidal attacks.

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RE: July 1917: The Fat Lady Sings - 3/5/2020 11:00:44 AM   
FOARP

 

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Status: offline 		Playing the latest patch (1.04) and the AI still did this.

I guess it’s tricky as if the German AI never attacks with its fleet then the UK can just move their fleet of dreadnoughts elsewhere, but if it attacks and loses then German has progressed massively towards losing the war.

One additional comment: Spain, the Netherlands, Sweden etc. joining either side should give them a small (2-5%) morale boost. As it is you can attack a minor with no real penalty other than delaying/advancing US war entry. You’d think getting a country like Spain on your side would raise morale anyway - it’s close to Great Power status.

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RE: July 1917: The Fat Lady Sings - 3/5/2020 4:31:55 PM   
BillRunacre

 

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Status: offline 		Thanks for the AAR, I've enjoyed following it too!

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