AndrewJ
Posts: 2318
Joined: 1/5/2014
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Well, here's how it went for me.
EXECUTION
First Evening
As reconnaissance aircraft spread out, we start to get a better look at the enemy disposition.
The bad news is that the Iranians have plenty of SAMs, and good ones too. There are at least half a dozen SA-20 batteries, and numerous SA-15s guarding airfields and ports, plus some legacy HAWKs and Warpac era equipment. I expect that there are plenty of hidden MANPADs as well. Anti-shipping missile batteries dot the shoreline and islands around the straits, usually safely under cover of the watchful SAMs.
Drones flying offshore take a close look at the coastal airbases, finding two dozen F-14s and some F-4s in the Bandar Abbas region, but nothing shows up in other locations. Of course, anything in shelters and hangars remains a complete unknown. Surprisingly, the Iranians have nothing in the air. I had expected some light patrols and maybe some ELINT / AEW activity, but the skies are empty. And why not? Now I can't judge their deployment patterns.
The drones also find that, as feared, there are a large number of small boats poised in harbours on the islands in the straits. These range from little Boghammers and Boston Whalers to some Tir-class torpedo boats. There are also some of the small Iranian submarines docked in Bandar Abbas, which makes me worry about the ones that I don't see. Are they already at sea, creeping along the bottom, waiting to pounce on passing freighters?
There doesn't appear to be significant Iranian naval activity in the NW end of the Gulf, so my patrol and missile boat flotilla operating off Bahrain is ordered to hurry east towards the straits. The shortest ranged ships (the little Cyclones) dash towards the ports in the UAE, hoping to have a chance to refuel before pressing onwards again.
Mining
The main Iranian naval activity is in the straits themselves, where we soon get a picture of half a dozen Iranian LSTs and minelayers moving about, along with some patrolling frigates. As the evening progresses, we get a series of increasingly explicit intelligence reports that they are dropping mines (well, presumed mines) into the water. The radar crews aboard the AEW and E-8s start keeping a careful plot of their movements. If we know where they've been, we should be able to head directly to the mines and begin sweeping immediately. This is where my plan to keep the minesweepers tightly escorted begins to break down, as leading sweepers are ordered to detach and follow in the path of the minelayers. Immediate sweeping before hostilities would be superb, but the risk of losing minesweepers to attack is rising rapidly.
The problem is, although we know where the presumed minelayers have been, we don't know where along their routes they might have started laying mines, so we have to check the entire trail. It isn't until 22:30 that we find the first mines, resting inertly on the bottom. This raises a conundrum. We can't sweep an inactive mine, and we don't have any idea when they're going to activate. Should my ships hang around the first mines they found, hoping they'll be able to sweep soon, or go scouting for more of them? My minesweepers split up some more, with some scouting ahead, while others loiter near the start of the mine trail, ready to begin as soon as they can. Meanwhile, the Iranian minelayers continue on their way, laying more mines and generally heading towards Bandar Abbas. At the same time, another Iranian ship comes out of Bandar Abbas. It's an oiler, and is headed SW, all alone. It doesn't seem to be headed for thirsty ships. Is it laying mines too? It certainly has cargo capacity for it, but it seems a risky way to use a valuable ship.
First Attack Orders
By 1:00 in the morning the evidence of mine-laying becomes so strong that we are given clearance to attack Iranian forces involved in mine-laying, but that doesn't mean we can open fire immediately. My ships are spread all over the place, hunting for mines, and if the Iranians shoot back, they could pick off isolated units while they are weakest. Orders are sent for my ships to close up into task-groups for local defence, and get out of land-based missile range. While they’re doing this the P-8s will be scrambled, carrying loadouts of deadly and discrete SLAMs, and head for the straits.
It takes about an hour to get everything in place, and then the radar-silent SLAMs strike without warning through the darkness. All the minelayers are struck and sink, one of them just within sight of the docks at Bandar Abbas. The Iranian oiler is still headed south-west, alone, in the center of the shipping lane, occasionally making slight course changes as she proceeds. Is she a valid mine-laying target? I think she must be, so she is struck and sunk too. There is no response from the Iranians, other than a couple of distant SAMs. Their frigates continue to patrol, and their aircraft stay on the ground. What are they up to?
Second Attack Order
As patrolling continues, the presence of Iranian submarines becomes pronounced. Several have been spotted coming out of Bandar Abbas, and many of them seem to be travelling with their scopes and snorkels up, so we've been able to keep basic track on at least three of them in the straits. The fact that there are more around becomes very obvious when one of my Burkes, heading east at high speed, spots a periscope so close there's nearly a collision. So much for my fancy sonar! Clearly, the Iranians are not content to sit at home.
Not long afterwards, around 3:00 AM, we start getting radar contacts on small boats, first at Kish Island, and later around Siri, Abu Musa, and Bandar Abbas. But, after the initial deployment, they just sit there. Are they awaiting a go code? In the meantime, their frigates continue to be a hassle, patrolling back and forth through areas where I'd like to station my minesweepers, and I find myself continually pushed out of position. It's not that I wouldn't win a fight, but rather that they'd spot me for their shore batteries, and could do some nasty damage in their own initial salvo.
While I'm cursing the frigates again, fresh orders come in at 5:00 AM: sink anything Iranian in the Gulf, and hit facilities on the islands (but not the mainland). This is welcome news, and a barrage of Exocets heads for the infuriating frigates. This draws immediate return fire from the frigate east of the straits, but fortunately he's only got four missiles, which my SAMs can handle. His gunfire, however, has a bit more range than I had anticipated, and my trailing minesweeper gets a sudden drenching from shell splashes, but fortunately no direct hits. The other two frigates in the west get struck down before they can spot me, and suddenly I have a lot more breathing room. (One of the biggest problems here was preventing leftover Exocets from wandering off to hit distant merchant ships…)
The enemy subs get some attention too, and three of them are sunk in rapid succession in the western approaches to the straits. However, there are at least two more up in the “corner” of the straits, where they have long-ranged SAM cover, and are close to enemy airbases. I’m reluctant to send my P-8s up into that environment, so those subs will get a free ride for the moment.
Airstrikes and General Hostilities
My first airstrikes hit the western islands (Kish, Sirri, and Abu Musa) just before 6:00 AM, as I try to knock down the SAMs and get at the land-based anti-shipping missiles which have been keeping me at a distance. The pairing of SDBs and WCMDs turn out to be excellent SAM crackers, and my other aircraft are soon able to pummel the islands, as general hostilities erupt throughout the region.
Dozens of Iranian small boats have been lurking under cover near the islands, and I’ve been reluctant to close with them until the enemy missiles were gone. Now they’re alive and angry, and they have targets in easy reach. My F-16s swoop in with Mavericks to pick off the torpedo boats, but the smaller Boghammers rip into some passing freighters. My patrol boats come rushing in at top speed, but they were too far away to prevent the damage, and several freighters drift to a halt after being struck by rockets and HMG fire. When my ships finally do arrive, a combination of gunfire and those handy little Griffin missiles on the Cyclones make a mess of the enemy. (No way I was firing Exocets at Boghammers…)
The Iranian subs get their shots in too. Two merchants get badly hit by torpedoes up in the “windy corner” near Bandar Abbas, and another two get hit (one eventually burning out and sinking) near the armed platform at Farsi Island. At first I wonder if the torpedoes were on the platform itself, and a P-8 uses a pair of SLAMs to set it on fire, but passing planes spot the subs several hours later, and they are eventually sunk.
The Iranian air-force finally makes a showing too, surging numerous F-14s, F-4s, and even some missile-carrying P-3s from the Bandar Abbas bases. My patrolling F-22s, loitering off the tip of Oman, are startled to find that the powerful radars on the F-14s are quite capable of spotting them at this range, which leads to some embarrassing high-speed retreats until enough fighters can be brought in to deal with the situation. More air-to-air fighting happens between F-15E and F-22s and the MiG-29s coming down from Shiraz, but the radar situation is much better here, and the F-22s keep things well in hand.
In the brief pause which follows, my F-35s are able to push north and unleash a swarm of SDBs at the Bandar Abbas SA-20, drowning it in quantity, while some F-15Es come in low, and pop up to fling WCMDs at the open parking at Bandar Abbas airport. The precision guided cluster bombs are devastating, wrecking numerous F-14s and other aircraft, making things much safer for my remaining air strikes. These hit the three anti-shipping missile batteries in the area, giving my minesweepers the freedom to get to work.
Skirmishing, and mineclearing
As most of my strike planes return home for reloads, fighters dip low to strafe the Boghammers, sinking a few and damaging others, and forcing them to turn back to base. This gives my patrol boats the time they need to close with the enemy and complete their destruction.
While my smaller patrol boats (the Cyclones, and Al Riffas) are doing this, the larger ones are closing on Abu Musa island, in company with my frigates and destroyers. Abu Musa is packed with AAA and other units, which would take ages to clear with Mavericks or the like, but when seven automatic 76mm guns, and a pair of 127s open up, the storm of gunfire has immediate and effective results! Abu Musa is swept clean of soft targets, and the other islands get similar treatment in turn, as does the SAM battery at Bandar Lengeh.
The Iranian mines are finally starting to rise to the surface, and my minesweepers get to work on the long and dangerous process of clearing the fields. Fortunately, with the routes of the minelayers known in advance, and the minefields mostly surveyed, the minesweepers usually get to the mines very soon after they rise. Consequently, despite a couple of close calls, the mines are swept before the merchants can collide with them.
Second Wave
My second wave of strikes starts around 2:00 in the afternoon. After a few TLAM shots (my first so far) to clear out vulnerable radars in the Bandar Abbas area and elsewhere, I launch a two-pronged attack.
The first target set is the remaining forces in the Bandar Abbas area, where the SA-5 and short ranged SAMs are destroyed, and the runways and other facilities are smashed. A side-branch of the attack, delivered by heavily-laden Mirages, wrecks the oil infrastructure and other soft targets like piers and docks on the various islands.
The second target set lies to the NNW, where I’ve been eyeing the two distant IRBM sites in northern Iran. I’ve not seen any IRBM activity so far, but this may change at any time. If I need to go SCUD-hunting in that region, then there are a pair of SA-20s at Bushehr and in the Shiraz area which are blocking my path. F-35s and F-15Es bring in the SDB swarm again, destroying the SAM batteries, and then following up with cluster bombs on nearby radars.
It looked like Iranian forces had been destroyed, sunk, or grounded by this point, so I wrapped it up by about 7:00 PM.
PLAY IMPRESSIONS
This is a good scenario; topical, timely, and interesting.
I really liked the series of messages stepping you into the situation, clearly defining what was going on and what your ROEs and objectives are. Some scenarios only give vague indications of what you’re supposed to do or what your superiors want. Here it felt like I was part of a command structure, and was being given realistic information and objectives.
The small-unit naval forces I had were not what I normally use (frankly, I didn’t even recall the Cyclones existed), and they player is in the interesting conundrum of how to guard and deploy the weak minesweepers, while simultaneously covering merchant shipping with patrol boats. If you disperse you can easily get swatted by shore batteries or frigates. If you concentrate, you can’t cover much at all. Personally, I chickened out. I could probably have forced into the neck of the straits and closer to the islands, trusting to my SAMs, and maybe have saved some more merchants, but I conceded the space to the Iranians until the missiles were destroyed.
The player probably has a little more air power (and TLAMs) than they really need. If I had surged the B-52s and TLAMs together I could have put 200 cruise missiles into the air, in addition to what I did use, which probably would have made for a really short scenario. The player is also PGM-rich. I used nearly 200 SDBs and 64 WCMDs, and was in no danger of running out.
I have to admit, I kept looking over my shoulder at those two IRBM sites, and wondering when the barrage would come, and when the Iranians would put my Patriots to the test. Were my airfields about to be bombarded, like the ones in Iraq? Was I going to be ordered to go on a time-critical SCUD-hunting mission with an active SA-20 in the region? (That’s partly why I kept the B-52s down – wondering if there would be a pop-up special target deep in the interior.)
Anyway, thanks for writing it, and I’ll have assorted technical comments later.
< Message edited by AndrewJ -- 3/3/2020 1:06:37 AM >
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RE: Scenario for Play test: Hormuz 2020 - 
, the Soviets did it with bridges for real...
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