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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/6/2020 4:17:49 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
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Post #: 331
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/6/2020 4:18:57 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		I missed the chance to meet you that last time you came to Atlanta. Come on back. I'll greet thee with a big hug.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
*The first suspected case from my little town in Northwest Georgia is being evaluated by the CDC right now. So my thoughts aren't shared flippantly.


Is it you? C'mon Dan-you can tell us.


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Post #: 332
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/6/2020 4:20:20 PM   
Kull


Posts: 2625
Joined: 7/3/2007
From: El Paso, TX
Status: offline 		And a sloppy kiss, right on the beak?

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/6/2020 4:22:58 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
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From: PDX (and now) London, UK
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert
What is the risk in the media over-playing it other than being annoyed and running out of TP?


When the media doesn't walk back their 'worst case scenario' narrative as the facts on the ground change, it's irresponsible. We've heard a *LOT* about a 2-4% CFR. I've not heard major media organizations walk it back to 1/10th that. Why haven't they done so? Because [sigh...] the salacious sells. The novel sells. The torrid and breathless sells. Moderation, circumspection, counter-narratives that don't fit their sky is falling premise don't get any time. Unbridled fear-in part due to media distortions-becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. Socioeconomic impacts follow that can be laid squarely at the feet of the irresponsible fear mongers.

That's why.


I disagree. Very simply, the public have no trouble freakingnoit even with mild predictions. Profit oriented media is a problem, but more for deflecting public attention away from real issues at stake.

Currently there is differing opinion about mortality rates, and predictions, however educated, are still just predictions. The rate as stated from known cases is still fairly high, and until there is more widespread testing, knowledge about transmission and evidence from multiple areas now seeing widespread community derived cases those rates are the only ones that are actually relevant.

Even if they are lowered getting people worried about something like this is not bad in my opinion. However bad it gets, it’s definitely the most impactful new disease strain since HIV.

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Post #: 334
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/6/2020 4:28:20 PM   
Chickenboy


Posts: 24520
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
Status: offline 		My PSA for the day for this thread:

A large influx of RT-PCR primer 'test kits' has been released to myriad state labs and private labs here in the US. Washington and California state have as many as they asked for. Several million test kits will be available and distributed next week. State / private labs will run the test first and 'presumptive' positives will be sent to CDC for 'confirmation'.

Much like the Wuhan case spike when they changed their reporting standards mid-February, expect an artifactual spike in the number of cases domestically as more suspected cases are tested. Please remember that presumptive and confirmed cases will likely spike in the United States in the next week due to enhanced testing. I fully expect this to occur and I also fully expect that our media coverage will distort the rationale of spike in cases.

Good news would look like a doubling (a guess on my part) number of cases with widespread testing and a liberalization of the rationale for testing (e.g., looking at *any* travel history as opposed to just travel from China). "Only" having a few hundred cumulative cases in a country this size-one that's now doing lots of testing for it-would suggest that it's not ubiquitous, but still sporadic. We can continue to slow down the velocity by non-medical interventional strategies. Tincture of time and all that.

Bad news would be moving further to the right on the log scale of the epidemic curve. If >2000 cases are reported next week, that would suggest that the disease is more widespread than previously believed and that non-medical interventional strategies may have greater headwinds in reducing the spread of this disease than previously hoped.

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/6/2020 4:29:20 PM   
Chickenboy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert
However bad it gets, it’s definitely the most impactful new disease strain since HIV.


Nonsense.

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/6/2020 4:33:45 PM   
obvert


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert
However bad it gets, it’s definitely the most impactful new disease strain since HIV.


Nonsense.


Haha!

So many one icon or word responses. It’s all conjecture right now but if you don’t think this is changing the world in financial, medical, social and cultural arenas already then you’re not paying attention. Here in Europe everything is being cancelled including conferences and sporting events.

This is a big deal.

< Message edited by obvert -- 3/6/2020 4:49:46 PM >

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/6/2020 4:34:17 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
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Status: offline 		I think we'll see another trend over the next week - the number of reported "recoveries" should drop drastically. This is because the massive reservoir of existing cases in China is now almost dry, meaning there aren't that many positive cases remaining to keep up with the number of recoveries seen over the past few weeks.

Over the next week or two, we should see lots of new active cases in the West (generating alarm, as Chickenboy just pointed out) and a drop in recoveries (generating alarm). But thereafter, we should see data in the west (beginning in Europe and Iran) that tracks the data we've seen from China. I would guess the leveling off would begin in places like Italy and Iran. The USA would come later, as the virus outbreak started here later.


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Post #: 338
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/6/2020 4:35:39 PM   
Chickenboy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert
That is something to blame on the extremely wealthy that don’t want to lose their wealth, and pull out before things get too bad.


Nah. It's not retail investors or the extremely wealthy that are calling their 401(k) or IRA brokers and panic selling. There was a neat article in the WSJ that showed that since 2009, individual investors-in spite of media assumptions to the contrary are *less* likely to jump out of and panic sell stocks than larger brokerage houses and pension / hedge funds. It's not retail investors or the individual wealthy that are driving the 10-year Treasury down to 0.6% APR as of this morning. That's the rest of the globe buying the safety and security of sovereign notes-any sovereign notes will do-that have an increasingly rare positive yield in a deflationary environment.

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Post #: 339
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/6/2020 4:45:29 PM   
Kull


Posts: 2625
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From: El Paso, TX
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quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

Here in Europe everything is being cancelled including conferences and sprouting events.


That is the very definition of panic. In Europe, they are even shutting down the farms!!

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Post #: 340
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/6/2020 4:46:03 PM   
Chickenboy


Posts: 24520
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
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quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert


quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert
However bad it gets, it’s definitely the most impactful new disease strain since HIV.


Nonsense.


Haha!

So many one icon or word responses. It’s all conjecture right now but if you don’t think this is changing the world in financial, medical, social and cultural arenas already then you’re not paying attention. Here in Europe everything is being cancelled including conferences and sprouting events.

This is a big deal.


I disagree with your stated polemic. While I agree that there's a lot of concern and conjecture about it-and see the attendant changes in the financial, medical, etc. ways, I don't believe that this is the 'most impactful disease since HIV'.

How about worldwide spread of drug-resistant TB, particularly in the last decade? Drug-resistant TB killed more than 1.2MM people in 2012. MRSA has a lot of people worried-still. And if I wanted to cast a blanket of 40 years (the timeframe you identified), I'd also have to throw in drug-resistant malaria and cumulative Ebola mortality (several different outbreaks).

Now you are to forgiven if you don't remember those or have overlooked their public health importance. Western media doesn't cover those as much because they're not novel or sexy. It's mostly underdeveloped countries / middle income countries that have to content with these issues and, really, nobody in the West seems to care.

But to say that this iteration of COVID-19 is the most important disease since HIV is wrong. That sort of public health declarative, without context of the other underreported global ills that have prevailed for the last 40 years, is exactly what I'm talking about with an overfocus on the novel and a lack of perspective.

I hope that clears up my previous one word response.

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/6/2020 5:06:17 PM   
MakeeLearn


Posts: 4278
Joined: 9/11/2016
Status: offline 		Coronavirus + sexy + Google =




Attachment (1)

< Message edited by MakeeLearn -- 3/6/2020 5:09:13 PM >

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/6/2020 5:39:38 PM   
Kull


Posts: 2625
Joined: 7/3/2007
From: El Paso, TX
Status: offline 		The "Report of the WHO-China Joint Mission on Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)" is quite informative, especially the first 15 pages (where they concentrate on facts and science).

The contact tracing was particularly informative (although there's lots of other good stuff - read it, damn it!!) Here's one example:

As of 17 February, in Shenzhen City, among 2842 identified close contacts, 2842 (100%) were traced and 2240 (72%) have completed medical observation. Among the close contacts, 88 (2.8%) were found to be infected with COVID-19.

Let that sink in. Among CLOSE CONTACTS, the transmission rate was 2.8%. The other examples were similar. Good luck hearing that from the media.

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/6/2020 5:49:46 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Sorry for the potential hijack, but that is one unattractive female.


quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

Coronavirus + sexy + Google =





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Post #: 344
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/6/2020 5:58:13 PM   
Erik Rutins

 

Posts: 37503
Joined: 3/28/2000
From: Vermont, USA
Status: offline 		Some more information on the test situation:

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/03/how-many-americans-have-been-tested-coronavirus/607597/?preview=3-4FLneYp3QF4ooMLWUN_KtUiR8

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Post #: 345
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/6/2020 6:10:41 PM   
Kull


Posts: 2625
Joined: 7/3/2007
From: El Paso, TX
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Erik Rutins

I have dependents who are very vulnerable to this illness based on the information so far.


This might be the biggest concern for most people out there - at least for those who have taken the time to study up on this a bit. It certainly is mine, especially since 4 days ago I was on a plane for 6 hours, seated next to a Chinese couple (speaking mandarin or some dialect) while the woman gobbled Ricola like Pez and periodically coughed violently into the shoulder of her male companion. And now I sit in the same house with my 90+ year old parents for another week, wondering if my visit might prove fatal to one or both.

So, does the WHO report have anything that might offer solace...or incite worry? Well, yes:

Household transmission
In China, human-to-human transmission of the COVID-19 virus is largely occurring in families. The Joint Mission received detailed information from the investigation of clusters and some household transmission studies, which are ongoing in a number of Provinces. Among 344 clusters involving 1308 cases (out of a total 1836 cases reported) in Guangdong Province and Sichuan Province, most clusters (78%-85%) have occurred in families. Household transmission studies are currently underway, but preliminary studies ongoing in Guangdong estimate the secondary attack rate in households ranges from 3-10%.

Read that again. As much as 85% of transmission occurs within family households! Yikes! But the actual infection rate is a fraction of that. Whew! So simple precautions like lots of hand washing and no face hugs and no coughing into Dad's orange juice are probably going to be effective. And if I do start to run a fever, then isolate into a bedroom. This thing is scary, yes, but it's not the black death. Or even the flu.

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Post #: 346
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/6/2020 6:31:22 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert


quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert
However bad it gets, it’s definitely the most impactful new disease strain since HIV.


Nonsense.


Haha!

So many one icon or word responses. It’s all conjecture right now but if you don’t think this is changing the world in financial, medical, social and cultural arenas already then you’re not paying attention. Here in Europe everything is being cancelled including conferences and sprouting events.

This is a big deal.


I disagree with your stated polemic. While I agree that there's a lot of concern and conjecture about it-and see the attendant changes in the financial, medical, etc. ways, I don't believe that this is the 'most impactful disease since HIV'.

How about worldwide spread of drug-resistant TB, particularly in the last decade? Drug-resistant TB killed more than 1.2MM people in 2012. MRSA has a lot of people worried-still. And if I wanted to cast a blanket of 40 years (the timeframe you identified), I'd also have to throw in drug-resistant malaria and cumulative Ebola mortality (several different outbreaks).

Now you are to forgiven if you don't remember those or have overlooked their public health importance. Western media doesn't cover those as much because they're not novel or sexy. It's mostly underdeveloped countries / middle income countries that have to content with these issues and, really, nobody in the West seems to care.

But to say that this iteration of COVID-19 is the most important disease since HIV is wrong. That sort of public health declarative, without context of the other underreported global ills that have prevailed for the last 40 years, is exactly what I'm talking about with an overfocus on the novel and a lack of perspective.

I hope that clears up my previous one word response.


I’ll ignore the condescension of your post since you actually merit it by your expertise.

Interesting, but none of those diseases have impacted as many areas of our world culture as the current Covid-19. You forgot to mention Dengue which is a big problem in many areas a s well, or dissentery, or the rise of diabetics and heart disease among other problems caused by diet and behavior in affluent countries.

My thought may not have been stated well, but it is that this has already and will have a world impact greater than those diseases, as is playing out in multiple spheres right now.

The Chinese have reduced transmission RO below 1 for a time, but now everyone is going back to work after forced isolation. How long before a secondary spike in cases there?

We simply don’t know how this will play out, but indications are that it will influence all continents (minus Antarctica maybe) and may not simply go away. To continue downplaying the outcome won’t help us, but might hurt the most vulnerable more than if we took every precaution.

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/6/2020 6:34:55 PM   
obvert


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert
That is something to blame on the extremely wealthy that don’t want to lose their wealth, and pull out before things get too bad.


Nah. It's not retail investors or the extremely wealthy that are calling their 401(k) or IRA brokers and panic selling. There was a neat article in the WSJ that showed that since 2009, individual investors-in spite of media assumptions to the contrary are *less* likely to jump out of and panic sell stocks than larger brokerage houses and pension / hedge funds. It's not retail investors or the individual wealthy that are driving the 10-year Treasury down to 0.6% APR as of this morning. That's the rest of the globe buying the safety and security of sovereign notes-any sovereign notes will do-that have an increasingly rare positive yield in a deflationary environment.


Did you read my post?

The entire point is that the financial markets are not reacting to individual s panicking but to banks, hedge funds and very wealthy financial institutions and players who are selling (smartly) due to economic concerns, not emotional or panic driven selling.

< Message edited by obvert -- 3/6/2020 6:35:28 PM >

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/6/2020 7:08:46 PM   
Kull


Posts: 2625
Joined: 7/3/2007
From: El Paso, TX
Status: offline 		OK, the household transmission rate for Covid-19 ranges from 3-10%, so what? I mean it sounds low, but how does one evaluate that? Well, let's put those numbers in perspective, and compare them to a disease that's gone officially pandemic 4 times since 1918 - the Flu.

Fortunately there's a fairly recent NIH study which covers this in excruciating detail, but we'll just look at their opening statement:

We reviewed published studies and found that once one household member is infected with influenza, the risk of infection in a household contact can be up to 38%

In other words, the Flu is anywhere from 4 to 13 times more infectious than Covid-19. Isn't it curious that we aren't learning this from the media?

Edit: In fact, the flu infection rate is probably much more. As we know from the WHO Report, roughly 80% of Covid-19 transmission is through the household. So unless Flu transmission is also primarily through the household, it means you are more likely to get it from other sources, and thus the Flu infection rate is going to be even higher. Perhaps orders of magnitude higher (unfortunately I can't find data which breaks out the "where did you get the flu from" numbers).

< Message edited by Kull -- 3/6/2020 7:23:16 PM >

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/6/2020 7:19:00 PM   
MakeeLearn


Posts: 4278
Joined: 9/11/2016
Status: offline 		New Study Says “Best Case” Coronavirus Scenario Ends With 15 Million Dead
And a global GDP loss of $2.4 trillion.
6 March, 2020


https://summit.news/2020/03/06/new-study-says-best-case-coronavirus-scenario-ends-with-15-million-dead/




"A new study by The Australian National University finds that in the “best case scenario,” Coronavirus will claim 15 million lives worldwide and shave $2.4 trillion off the global GDP.

The paper examined seven different models of how COVID-19 could spread outside of China, ranging from low to high severity.

“But even in the low-severity model — or best-case scenario of the seven, which the paper acknowledged were not definitive — ANU researchers estimate a global GDP loss of $2.4 trillion, with an estimated death toll of 15 million,” reports Yahoo News.

The results were modeled on the 1968-1969 Hong Kong flu pandemic, which killed 1 million people.

Under the worst case scenario, modeled on the Spanish flu pandemic, which killed up to 50 million people from 1918 to 1920, the Coronavirus would kill more than 68 million people and slash $9 trillion from the global GDP."

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/6/2020 7:20:43 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
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Status: offline 		We discussed that at length, yesterday. I think that's poppycock, personally.

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Post #: 351
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/6/2020 7:34:33 PM   
Kull


Posts: 2625
Joined: 7/3/2007
From: El Paso, TX
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quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn
"A new study by The Australian National University finds that in the “best case scenario,” Coronavirus will claim 15 million lives worldwide and shave $2.4 trillion off the global GDP.

The results were modeled on the 1968-1969 Hong Kong flu pandemic, which killed 1 million people.


Modeling this on the flu - utter claptrap. Hopefully my recent postings have shown that's a completely inaccurate characterization. Might as well extrapolate based on Ebola.

"Oooh, oooh, but it must be real because it was a study and it came from a university and they modeled it!!"

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/6/2020 7:45:42 PM   
MakeeLearn


Posts: 4278
Joined: 9/11/2016
Status: offline 		Just had a Bald Eagle perch and watch me clean up some brush I cut. It looked to be smaller than the one that lives here full time. After several trips of throwing the brush in the river, I addressed the Eagle...

"What do you think of this Coronavirus?"
It looked at me and shifted it's weight.
It looked at the swimming hole, then back at me.
The wind picked up, the Eagle flapped a couple of times, then soared - over me- in circles until out of sight.
And I said out loud "Thank you."

< Message edited by MakeeLearn -- 3/6/2020 7:51:49 PM >

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/6/2020 8:23:03 PM   
MakeeLearn


Posts: 4278
Joined: 9/11/2016
Status: offline 		STEALTHY NANOROBOTS dress up as viruses, prepare to sneak into YOUR BODY
22 Apr 2014

https://www.theregister.co.uk/2014/04/22/us_virus_smuggle_research/



"US scientists have tackled two main stumbling blocks to the development of injectable nanomachines for medical and scientific use.

The breakthroughs were announced in a paper entitled "Virus-Inspired Membrane Encapsulation of DNA Nanostructures To Achieve In Vivo Stability", published in the journal ACS Nano on Tuesday."



"But as exciting as these breakthroughs are, they're worthless if the injectable nanomachines set off immune responses as they flow around the body – and it's that barrier which the Wyss researchers think they have overcome."

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/6/2020 8:25:02 PM   
RangerJoe


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

We discussed that at length, yesterday. I think that's poppycock, personally.


I like poppycock. Buttery, sweet pop corn with pecans . . .

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/6/2020 8:29:54 PM   
MakeeLearn


Posts: 4278
Joined: 9/11/2016
Status: offline 		Nanoviricides President Dr. Diwan Was Interviewed by The Varney Show on Fox Business News

Feb 10, 2020 6:41 AM CST

http://www.wicz.com/story/41679819/nanoviricides-president-dr-diwan-was-interviewed-by-the-varney-show-on-fox-business-news


"Mr. Varney further inquired if the nanoviricide drug would become ineffective when the virus mutates. Dr. Diwan explained that the magic of our technology is that we copy the human cell surface receptor to which the virus binds. No matter how much a virus mutates, it continues to bind to the same receptor at the same site, as has been established in numerous studies. Thus, it is highly unlikely that the virus mutations would lead to the nanoviricide drug becoming ineffective. Dr. Diwan also explained how the nanoviricide polymer with multiple virus-binding ligands attached to it would act like a "Venus-fly-trap" for the virus particle. "



http://www.nanoviricides.com/index.html


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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/6/2020 8:31:17 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 13450
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From: My Mother, although my Father had some small part.
Status: offline 		I went to town today and someone told me that the price of liquid hand soap refills went up $2 US. Now either people are hoarding elsewhere or they are finally bothering to wash their hands. One place had hand sanitizer out and asked people to use it. The bus had two color printed pages of the COVID-19 and how people get it and how to prevent it.

There appeared to be no shortage of important papers or liquid hand soap in this area.

The bus driver actually asked me for a bus ticket today. I showed him a card from the government that indicates that I don't have to pay for public transit where I am at.

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/6/2020 8:33:28 PM   
MakeeLearn


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

We discussed that at length, yesterday. I think that's poppycock, personally.



Yes, but this new source goes to 11.




Attachment (1)

< Message edited by MakeeLearn -- 3/6/2020 8:34:50 PM >

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/6/2020 9:30:53 PM   
MakeeLearn


Posts: 4278
Joined: 9/11/2016
Status: offline 		Russian expert is ready to comment on the coronavirus
25-Jan-2020

https://www.newswise.com/articles/russian-expert-is-ready-to-comment-on-the-coronavirus

"Pavel Volchkov heads the Genome Engineering Lab at the Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology (MIPT), that has several key projects, all of them involving genome editing mediated by the CRISPR/Cas technology. Discovered just a few years ago, CRISPR/Cas has emerged as one of the hottest scientific trends."


"A virus normally does not seek to kill its host. On the contrary, it is favorable for the virus to reproduce and use the host for as long as possible. However, besides endowing it with the ability to infect humans, the combination of mutations acquired by nCorona-2019 has made it highly immunogenic. This does not necessarily end well for the host, because the side effects of a runaway immune system might prove lethal.

Evidently, that can happen with the new coronavirus. Patients may get complications in the form of pneumonia. It is the response of the immune system to a respiratory infection, sometimes leading to lung failure and possibly death"

"Confirmed patients are treated by a well-timed suppression of the inflammatory processes, until the immune system can cope with the infection."

"As of now, quarantine isolation is the main measure for preventing the spread of the disease. "

< Message edited by MakeeLearn -- 3/6/2020 9:31:59 PM >

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(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 359
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/6/2020 9:37:18 PM   
DD696

 

Posts: 964
Joined: 7/9/2004
From: near Savannah, Ga
Status: offline 		I have to say, that on this issue, I agree with the Chickenboy. Edit, I am also in agreement with Canoerebel. Media panic is pretty much all it amounts to. I'm an old fart and if it gets me I will probably croak.

However, I will always believe that last years women's soccer team is the trashiest on record, and I still salute the better teams that respect the counties that they represent. Even though the Chickenboy called me a "hater" for saying so, I stand by my remarks.

< Message edited by DD696 -- 3/6/2020 9:42:57 PM >

_____________________________

USMC: 1970-1977. A United States Marine.
We don't take kindly to idjits.

(in reply to Chickenboy)
Post #: 360
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