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RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/11/2020 2:12:54 PM   
JohnDillworth


Posts: 3100
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quote:

Yes, that is one hypothesis.
Well gravity is still a theory too but but most modern scholarship points firmly at Kansas, and then it jumped to Fort Riley, and spread through other over crowded Army bases, boarded a ship with the troops and landed in Breast France, infected thousands there, went quite in the summer, mutated (they have a solid genetic chain of evidence, much of it cited in the footnotes of the article you posted including the accepted best book on the subject and the meticulously referenced and researched The Great Influenza by John Barry), came back in a more deadly, mutated strain, brought 4 great armies to their knees, halted the 1918 German offensive, came back across the Atlantic and killed tens of thousands in Army bases and millions in cities and traveled around the world, again, killing millions more. It's not hard to trace these things over time. Heck, scholars have used written records to track the progress of great plagues since Roman times.

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Post #: 4411
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/11/2020 2:53:26 PM   
witpqs


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This is a 15-minute interview with Dr Fauci. The title is a bit misleading, because only a little bit at the beginning is about the predictive models. The interview covered a wide range of Corona virus topics, mostly about what do we do now.

Dr. Fauci says coronavirus toll in China, Italy -- not models -- forced 'strong mitigation programs' in US

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Post #: 4412
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/11/2020 2:55:18 PM   
RFalvo69


Posts: 1380
Joined: 7/11/2013
From: Lamezia Terme (Italy)
Status: offline
Quarantine measures in Italy have been extended to May 3.

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"Oh dad... so you were a God-damned cook?"

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Post #: 4413
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/11/2020 3:51:18 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 13450
Joined: 11/16/2015
From: My Mother, although my Father had some small part.
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quote:

ORIGINAL: RFalvo69

Quarantine measures in Italy have been extended to May 3.


Be smart, stay safe, and be well. That is for everybody reading this.

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I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


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Post #: 4414
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/11/2020 5:28:21 PM   
Cap Mandrake


Posts: 23184
Joined: 11/15/2002
From: Southern California
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quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs

How to Make China Pay



I wonder who would win an asset-seizure war?

China is not a signatory to the ICC and neither is the US. Can't use UN sanctions because they can veto. Private citizens suing and seizing Chinese assets might work but they would have to identify guilty individuals or even Chinese corporations to blame.

(in reply to witpqs)
Post #: 4415
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/11/2020 5:40:06 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 13450
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From: My Mother, although my Father had some small part.
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Cut back on the number of Chinese students allowed in the US as well as encourage other countries to do so. Encourage compnies to move elsewhere. Pass laws/treaties that if the production of a certain product does not follow certain environmental standards, then add a tax to the product. HAVE CUSTOMS INSPECT EVERY SHIPMENT FROM CHINA. The delay on that will cost money. Inspect it on the ship before it unloads the cargo. Eliminate the mailing rate situation where it costs less to mail things from China to the US than it does from within the US.

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to Cap Mandrake)
Post #: 4416
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/11/2020 6:01:18 PM   
Lokasenna


Posts: 9297
Joined: 3/3/2012
From: Iowan in MD/DC
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quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

quote:

Yes, that is one hypothesis.
Well gravity is still a theory too but but most modern scholarship points firmly at Kansas, and then it jumped to Fort Riley, and spread through other over crowded Army bases, boarded a ship with the troops and landed in Breast France, infected thousands there, went quite in the summer, mutated (they have a solid genetic chain of evidence, much of it cited in the footnotes of the article you posted including the accepted best book on the subject and the meticulously referenced and researched The Great Influenza by John Barry), came back in a more deadly, mutated strain, brought 4 great armies to their knees, halted the 1918 German offensive, came back across the Atlantic and killed tens of thousands in Army bases and millions in cities and traveled around the world, again, killing millions more. It's not hard to trace these things over time. Heck, scholars have used written records to track the progress of great plagues since Roman times.


Just want to note that "theory" in science is not the same as "theory" in colloquial language. In science, it means a model that is proven and encompasses all the evidence and principles therein. In conversation, it means simply a hypothesis. I wasn't aware of the research you mention - I'll have to dig into that sometime... sometime.


PS - Breast France sounds like a swell place.

(in reply to JohnDillworth)
Post #: 4417
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/11/2020 6:02:24 PM   
Lokasenna


Posts: 9297
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From: Iowan in MD/DC
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quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

Eliminate the mailing rate situation where it costs less to mail things from China to the US than it does from within the US.


Does it?

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Post #: 4418
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/11/2020 10:21:28 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
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From: PDX (and now) London, UK
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It seems we’re forgetting the symbiosis of the China and US situations. Very simply, the US needs them to make things but also to invest in the US. China needs the US to buy things.

Neither can really get along without the other right now or the economic system doesn’t work.



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Post #: 4419
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/12/2020 12:07:21 AM   
Cap Mandrake


Posts: 23184
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From: Southern California
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quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

It seems we’re forgetting the symbiosis of the China and US situations. Very simply, the US needs them to make things but also to invest in the US. China needs the US to buy things.

Neither can really get along without the other right now or the economic system doesn’t work.




With a 10 year T-bill rate UNDER 1% it seems there are plenty of T bill buyers.

I think they Chicoms have more to lose than we do.

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 4420
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/12/2020 2:17:42 AM   
Ian R

 

Posts: 3420
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From: Cammeraygal Country
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The numbers in Australia are starting to decline on all measures (except, of course, there have unfortunately been 58 deaths).

New cases reported are tracking below 100 per day - there were only 51 yesterday, almost halved from a few days ago, and probably related to an enforceable lock down over Easter.

Total cases is now 6,289 on the dept of health website, but worldometers has slightly more at 6303, with a slightly less figure for deaths.

Worldometers also reports active cases have declined to 2982, with 3265 (98%) recovered and 56 deaths.

That means, over the last 24 hours, recoveries (yesterday's figure was 3141) have exceeded new cases by > 100%.

worldometers

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Post #: 4421
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/12/2020 2:22:26 AM   
Ian R

 

Posts: 3420
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Here is the Australia graph - the infection rate has just about halved since 10 April, over the Easter lockdown.




< Message edited by Ian R -- 4/12/2020 2:23:08 AM >


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Post #: 4422
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/12/2020 2:28:32 AM   
RangerJoe


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That is good news!

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― Julia Child


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Post #: 4423
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/12/2020 2:37:20 AM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 13450
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An interesting article, not just about him but about preparedness:

How Anthony Fauci Became America’s Doctor
An infectious-disease expert’s long crusade against some of humanity’s most virulent threats.
April 10, 2020
Anthony Fauci “You stay completely apolitical and non-ideological,” Fauci says. “I’m a scientist and I’m a physician. And that’s it.”

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2020/04/20/how-anthony-fauci-became-americas-doctor?utm_source=pocket-newtab

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to RangerJoe)
Post #: 4424
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/12/2020 3:11:17 AM   
Ian R

 

Posts: 3420
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From: Cammeraygal Country
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quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

That is good news!


What seems to be happening is that the surge from the cruise ships that sat off our coast and refused to leave while the crews got sicker has finished (Some of those crews are here under treatment, but many have now been repatriated, as is happening world wide).

Also, the lock down over Easter is being enforced with the police running vehicle plates on the database, and if you are not close to home, you get pulled over. If you do not have a good reason to be where you are (and things like shopping, or visiting you mother, are NOT good reasons) you get issued an infringement notice, i.e. a ticket with a fine, which you can challenge in Court if you like. Repeat offenders could potentially end up in gaol.

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Post #: 4425
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/12/2020 3:42:12 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
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I spent most of the day in the woods and then with family. A few notes about today's reports:

UK: 917 deaths; 1399 projected - so even though Univ. of Washington reduced the projections yesterday, still a markedly lower total. Assuming no glitches in reporting, that's good.
US: 1830 deaths; 1907 projected.
Spain: 526 deaths; 262 projected.
Italy: 619 deaths; 281 projected.
France: 635 deaths; 517 projected.
Germany: 135 deaths; 244 projected.
Belgium: 327 deaths; 205 projected.

The Univ of Washington projections still doing well for the US and most of the states but having trouble with most of Europe.

(in reply to Ian R)
Post #: 4426
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/12/2020 2:35:49 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
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This morning saw a news headline that the UK PM had been released from the hospital. That seemed surprising, because there was a blurb last night reporting he had been "at death's door." From news he had been put in ICU to reported "death's door" to purported release, all within about five days? That isn't the sort of speedy progression usually reported for people seriously ill with the virus.

I went back to find the source of the "at death's door" report. Apparently it was the Mirror. I' not familiar with it, nor with it's reputation for reliability.

Is that seemingly fast progression accurate?

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 4/12/2020 2:38:03 PM >

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 4427
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/12/2020 2:40:35 PM   
witpqs


Posts: 26087
Joined: 10/4/2004
From: Argleton
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake


quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs

How to Make China Pay



I wonder who would win an asset-seizure war?

China is not a signatory to the ICC and neither is the US. Can't use UN sanctions because they can veto. Private citizens suing and seizing Chinese assets might work but they would have to identify guilty individuals or even Chinese corporations to blame.

China has done plenty of seizures anyway. Owning/investing in a factory there is, in my mind, a huge gamble to begin with.

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Post #: 4428
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/12/2020 2:42:44 PM   
witpqs


Posts: 26087
Joined: 10/4/2004
From: Argleton
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

Cut back on the number of Chinese students allowed in the US as well as encourage other countries to do so. I prefer things which have greater impact on that government and less impact on ordinary people. I don't like this option. Encourage compnies to move elsewhere. Pass laws/treaties that if the production of a certain product does not follow certain environmental standards, then add a tax to the product. HAVE CUSTOMS INSPECT EVERY SHIPMENT FROM CHINA. Bad option. I think. The delay on that will cost money. Inspect it on the ship before it unloads the cargo. Eliminate the mailing rate situation where it costs less to mail things from China to the US than it does from within the US. Really? That one is news to me.



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Post #: 4429
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/12/2020 2:44:20 PM   
witpqs


Posts: 26087
Joined: 10/4/2004
From: Argleton
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

It seems we’re forgetting the symbiosis of the China and US situations. Very simply, the US needs them to make things but also to invest in the US. China needs the US to buy things.

Neither can really get along without the other right now or the economic system doesn’t work.



We are better off with each other but if either one did not exist the world would continue along. I think we've gone stupid far in one direction, and it's that we must correct. If you are saying (in my words) "don't go stupid far in the other direction", I quite agree.

< Message edited by witpqs -- 4/12/2020 2:46:43 PM >


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Post #: 4430
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/12/2020 2:44:21 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
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UK reporting 737 deaths today (Worldometers). That's half the Univ. of Washington projection of 1476.

That's another in an uninterrupted series of serious over-projections for UK. As discussed here two days ago, U.Wash. already revised its UK projection sharply downward once (from 66k to 37k). Another is likely if the trend holds another day or two.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 4/12/2020 2:48:46 PM >

(in reply to witpqs)
Post #: 4431
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/12/2020 2:46:16 PM   
witpqs


Posts: 26087
Joined: 10/4/2004
From: Argleton
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna


quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

quote:

Yes, that is one hypothesis.
Well gravity is still a theory too but but most modern scholarship points firmly at Kansas, and then it jumped to Fort Riley, and spread through other over crowded Army bases, boarded a ship with the troops and landed in Breast France, infected thousands there, went quite in the summer, mutated (they have a solid genetic chain of evidence, much of it cited in the footnotes of the article you posted including the accepted best book on the subject and the meticulously referenced and researched The Great Influenza by John Barry), came back in a more deadly, mutated strain, brought 4 great armies to their knees, halted the 1918 German offensive, came back across the Atlantic and killed tens of thousands in Army bases and millions in cities and traveled around the world, again, killing millions more. It's not hard to trace these things over time. Heck, scholars have used written records to track the progress of great plagues since Roman times.


Just want to note that "theory" in science is not the same as "theory" in colloquial language. In science, it means a model that is proven and encompasses all the evidence and principles therein. In conversation, it means simply a hypothesis. I wasn't aware of the research you mention - I'll have to dig into that sometime... sometime.


PS - Breast France sounds like a swell place.

Isn't it more like "not falsified", "consistent with the evidence"? In other words, no examples which contradict the theory have been identified?

_____________________________


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Post #: 4432
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/12/2020 2:49:04 PM   
witpqs


Posts: 26087
Joined: 10/4/2004
From: Argleton
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

This morning saw a news headline that the UK PM had been released from the hospital. That seemed surprising, because there was a blurb last night reporting he had been "at death's door." From news he had been put in ICU to reported "death's door" to purported release, all within about five days? That isn't the sort of speedy progression usually reported for people seriously ill with the virus.

I went back to find the source of the "at death's door" report. Apparently it was the Mirror. I' not familiar with it, nor with it's reputation for reliability.

Is that seemingly fast progression accurate?

I saw the headline about him being released - good news!

I imagine the "death's door" stuff was a bit of license. I know he was in ICU, but I assume (maybe I'm wrong?) if he had been on a respirator he would be in the hospital for at least a bit after coming off of it.

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Post #: 4433
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/12/2020 2:50:41 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 13450
Joined: 11/16/2015
From: My Mother, although my Father had some small part.
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna


quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

quote:

Yes, that is one hypothesis.
Well gravity is still a theory too but but most modern scholarship points firmly at Kansas, and then it jumped to Fort Riley, and spread through other over crowded Army bases, boarded a ship with the troops and landed in Breast France, infected thousands there, went quite in the summer, mutated (they have a solid genetic chain of evidence, much of it cited in the footnotes of the article you posted including the accepted best book on the subject and the meticulously referenced and researched The Great Influenza by John Barry), came back in a more deadly, mutated strain, brought 4 great armies to their knees, halted the 1918 German offensive, came back across the Atlantic and killed tens of thousands in Army bases and millions in cities and traveled around the world, again, killing millions more. It's not hard to trace these things over time. Heck, scholars have used written records to track the progress of great plagues since Roman times.


Just want to note that "theory" in science is not the same as "theory" in colloquial language. In science, it means a model that is proven and encompasses all the evidence and principles therein. In conversation, it means simply a hypothesis. I wasn't aware of the research you mention - I'll have to dig into that sometime... sometime.


PS - Breast France sounds like a swell place.

Isn't it more like "not falsified", "consistent with the evidence"? In other words, no examples which contradict the theory have been identified?


I agree, it is still not proven as a fact but it is consistent with all observations.

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to witpqs)
Post #: 4434
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/12/2020 2:50:41 PM   
Ian R

 

Posts: 3420
Joined: 8/1/2000
From: Cammeraygal Country
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

This morning saw a news headline that the UK PM had been released from the hospital. That seemed surprising, because there was a blurb last night reporting he had been "at death's door." From news he had been put in ICU to reported "death's door" to purported release, all within about five days? That isn't the sort of speedy progression usually reported for people seriously ill with the virus.

I went back to find the source of the "at death's door" report. Apparently it was the Mirror. I' not familiar with it, nor with it's reputation for reliability.

Is that seemingly fast progression accurate?


The Mirror is a pooh-ticket, or so my UK acquaintances tell me. It's a wonder they haven't reported Covid-19 as the opening salvo of an alien invasion.

_____________________________

"I am Alfred"

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 4435
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/12/2020 2:53:03 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
After being out all day yesterday, just catching up. Thanks, Cap, for answering this question.


quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Cap, I've heard secondhand stories of serious complications, etc. like lung issues. Those weren't reliable sources and didn't mention whether the issues were temporary or permanent.

Do you have a shorthand synopsis of side effects (preferably in reasonable layman lingo)?

Thanks.


Possible lung problems in recovered (or acutely ill) COVID patients:

1) Barotrauma (literally injury to the lung from positive pressure ventilation). A serious risk when the ventilatory support is prolonged or extreme. this may be permanent.

2) Lung scarring from the viral pneumonia and inflammatory processes itself. This may be permanent or take a long time to go away.

3) Pulmonary hypertension...elevation of pressure in the pulmonary arteries. Bad. Can cause "right to left shunting and severe depression or arterial oxygen levels. There is a trial in the US of Nitric Oxide gas during ventilation to reduce this.

4) Pulmonary embolism. Blood clots propagating in the extremity veins or even the heart and moving downstream to the lungs. Very, very bad.



(in reply to Cap Mandrake)
Post #: 4436
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/12/2020 2:53:56 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
Thanks, Ian. I know generally that some UK papers are highly regarded and some not. But I have no idea which is which.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Ian R


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

This morning saw a news headline that the UK PM had been released from the hospital. That seemed surprising, because there was a blurb last night reporting he had been "at death's door." From news he had been put in ICU to reported "death's door" to purported release, all within about five days? That isn't the sort of speedy progression usually reported for people seriously ill with the virus.

I went back to find the source of the "at death's door" report. Apparently it was the Mirror. I' not familiar with it, nor with it's reputation for reliability.

Is that seemingly fast progression accurate?


The Mirror is a pooh-ticket, or so my UK acquaintances tell me. It's a wonder they haven't reported Covid-19 as the opening salvo of an alien invasion.


(in reply to Ian R)
Post #: 4437
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/12/2020 2:58:08 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
Spain continues a marked downwards trend in new cases and mortalities. Worldometers reporting 366 deaths today. But the Univ. of Washington site projected 227 today. It consistently underprojects in Spain (and many European countries but not, as noted just above UK).

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 4438
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/12/2020 2:59:16 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 13450
Joined: 11/16/2015
From: My Mother, although my Father had some small part.
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs


quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

Cut back on the number of Chinese students allowed in the US as well as encourage other countries to do so. I prefer things which have greater impact on that government and less impact on ordinary people. I don't like this option. Encourage companies to move elsewhere. Pass laws/treaties that if the production of a certain product does not follow certain environmental standards, then add a tax to the product. HAVE CUSTOMS INSPECT EVERY SHIPMENT FROM CHINA. Bad option. I think. The delay on that will cost money. Inspect it on the ship before it unloads the cargo. Eliminate the mailing rate situation where it costs less to mail things from China to the US than it does from within the US. Really? That one is news to me.


One of those recent Chinese students was an officer in the Chicom's Army. I believe that the student was in Boston with that professor recently arrested along with the other Chinese student caught smuggling biological samples through US Customs.

Having customs inspect all shipments could help keep illegal and counterfeit goods out of the US.

From:
The eBay Community

quote:

Why is China to US shipping cost so much cheaper than US to China?

Jun 5, 2013 1:01:44 AM

I bought an item from a seller in Hong Kong for $6 and $1.50 shipping. The item was broken so the seller told me to return for refund.

The shipping weight is 5 ounces. To ship from the US to Hong Kong with the cheapest USPS service that has delivery confirmation (priority international) it will cost $34.87. To ship 1st class without tracking it will cost $11.48.

How in the world did the china seller pay for the product, pay ebay and paypal fees, pay for packing material and ship to me WITH TRACKING for 1/4 of the cost it would cost me just in shipping costs alone to send the item back?


https://community.ebay.com/t5/Archive-Shipping-Returns/Why-is-China-to-US-shipping-cost-so-much-cheaper-than-US-to/td-p/2838826

There are multiple answers given.

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to witpqs)
Post #: 4439
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/12/2020 4:09:12 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
Italy mortality continues to drop - to 431 today per Worldometers, the lowest since March 19 (nearly a month).

Univ. of Washington had projected 242 with a margin of error of 154 to 380.


(in reply to RangerJoe)
Post #: 4440
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