Slitherine

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Right, but most people do go. They go if they have a broken toe or a high fever or gunshot wound or a laceration. I see no reason the great majority wouldn't go if having serious coronavirus symptoms. Cap Mandrake and others are more likely to know for certain, but that's my experience here in Georgia and vicinity and anecdotally around the country.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

The "Theory of Everything" will have to explain why I put the lint trap in backwards EVERY time when I should get it right half the time. And what happens to the missing socks? I am suspicious there is an undiscovered particle called the "anti-sock"

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Read my previous post at the end of the last page. Projections don't call for big outbreaks elsewhere, moving forward.

I have a grave mistrust of the media, though I'm plugged in a lot due to my business. I have my finger on the pulse of Georgia, the 8th largest state in the US, due to my business and my interests. To an extent that bleeds over to adjacent regions, which are geographically near and where I have family and have lived. And I have many professional ties to the medical community, due to my legal background and friendships. I live in the medical center of northwest Georgia. That's not to say I'm an expert; but rather that I'm probably considerably more knowledgeable that the average citizen. But Cap Mandrake and others can provide far more insight than I can.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Right. That's where we have to use our best judgment, as discussed at length here, two days ago.

Thus far, the U. Wash. projections have been very good. When they've missed it's nearly always been by being too pessimistic, resulting in regular recalculations.

Most of the earliest projections by other sources that got it so very wrong assumed social distancing and countermeasures. The U. Washington site has been consistently more accurate and relied upon nearly universally, as best I can tell, including Dr. Fauci and the media.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I'm not sure what you mean, but hindsight is always better than foresight of course.

If you mean, "What do we do next?" That was discussed in here at length a few days back, with lots of different viewpoints. It was an interesting discussion. Capt. Beefheart's post just above kind of encapsulizes the train of thought that you have to move forward at some point. As I posted in here about a week ago, to me that comes when mortality drops to about 0 per day and the medical communities have the capacity to handle flair ups. Ease restrictions, protect the most vulnerable, and move forward.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I'm not sure what you mean, but hindsight is always better than foresight of course.

If you mean, "What do we do next?" That was discussed in here at length a few days back, with lots of different viewpoints. It was an interesting discussion. Capt. Beefheart's post just above kind of encapsulizes the train of thought that you have to move forward at some point. As I posted in here about a week ago, to me that comes when mortality drops to about 0 per day and the medical communities have the capacity to handle flair ups. Ease restrictions, protect the most vulnerable, and move forward.

quote:

ORIGINAL: CaptBeefheart

Mayo Clinic just laid off a bunch of people. Whether those people find work elsewhere will tell us if there's a medical personnel shortage in the U.S.

Medical tourism has also been hit hard here. My wife's hospital has lost a fair amount of revenue that used to come from Russians and Arabs.

Of the 25 new cases in Korea yesterday, 16 came from the airport. Most or all of those are returning Koreans. That's one way to keep the numbers up.

Cheers,
CB

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Spain reported 280 deaths today. The drop there has been remarkably sharp. Lowest mortality since March 20. Higher than projected by U. Wash. but well within the margin of error.

For some reason, Spain's mortality/day is dropping relatively quickly compared to Italy, where the struggle has been really tough.

England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805

quote:

As at 3:00pm on 13 April 2020, there have been 6,359 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Australia. There have been 46 new cases since 3:00pm yesterday.

quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

Hydroxychloroquine trial for COVID-19 begins amid political debate
Researchers aim to get clinical data on unproven treatments Trump has promoted.
4/10/2020

https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/04/malaria-drug-touted-by-trump-to-treat-covid-19-begins-nih-clinical-trial/

It seems that I am getting a lot of:

"502 Bad Gateway
nginx/1.16.1"

But only on the matrixgames.com/forums.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Sammy, given the level of scrutiny in place in the US, anyone who dies under any circumstances is likely being tested and counted. That is true whether they die in a hospital or at home or in a hotel. Coroners and other officials strive to assign an accurate cause of death in the US. I don't think that's changed. In fact, it's probably more likely given the spotlight on the coronavirus.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Reading the carefully articulated thoughts contributed by folks here gives a distinct impression that some are relying on the media for a sense of what's going on in the US. That's understandable but it's leading to grave misperceptions. The raw data and the projections by apparently reputable organizations seem to paint a much different picture. As noted a few days back, I'm thankful this forum worked to create a picture of what's going on. We got it righter sooner than the media. Sometimes dramatically so.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Right, but most people do go. They go if they have a broken toe or a high fever or gunshot wound or a laceration. I see no reason the great majority wouldn't go if having serious coronavirus symptoms. Cap Mandrake and others are more likely to know for certain, but that's my experience here in Georgia and vicinity and anecdotally around the country.

Regarding post-mortem testing there has been one case that I know of. More importantly, as noted above coroners and others have a duty to assign an accurate cause of death. If in NYC emergency conditions prevail so that testing can't be done yet it will be done later - from the bodies or preserved specimens, I'd guess. Most places are not that overwhelmed, however, so likely have the capacity to handle things as they occur. It wouldn't be surprising if they're temporarily having to let standards slide in NYC but it would be a surprise in most other places - North Carolina, for instance.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Sammy, given the level of scrutiny in place in the US, anyone who dies under any circumstances is likely being tested and counted. That is true whether they die in a hospital or at home or in a hotel. Coroners and other officials strive to assign an accurate cause of death in the US. I don't think that's changed. In fact, it's probably more likely given the spotlight on the coronavirus.

I don't share your confidence in this conjecture.

quote:

ORIGINAL: CaptBeefheart

Mayo Clinic just laid off a bunch of people. Whether those people find work elsewhere will tell us if there's a medical personnel shortage in the U.S.

quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Sammy, given the level of scrutiny in place in the US, anyone who dies under any circumstances is likely being tested and counted. That is true whether they die in a hospital or at home or in a hotel. Coroners and other officials strive to assign an accurate cause of death in the US. I don't think that's changed. In fact, it's probably more likely given the spotlight on the coronavirus.

I don't share your confidence in this conjecture.

Agreed. Accurate determination of cause of death is not as simple as would appear, and there's often a considerable time lag in order to reconcile the medical and government records.