Slitherine

quote:

ORIGINAL: Scott_USN

So South Korea has stopped the large numbers from growing. Good for them.

quote:

ORIGINAL: CaptBeefheart

quote:

ORIGINAL: Scott_USN

So South Korea has stopped the large numbers from growing. Good for them.

Yeah, touch wood. I'm hoping things can get back to normal within a few weeks (and by that I mean events stop being cancelled, my kid finally goes to pre-school, the British Embassy pub reopens, etc.).

Cheers,
CB

quote:

ORIGINAL: CaptBeefheart

As more people get tested, it's inevitable the Stateside numbers will grow quickly. Same thing happened here. Expect school closures just about everywhere.

Cheers,
CB

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Since I posted about 14 hours ago, three new cases have been reported in Mainland China. If the numbers are accurate, the virus has almost run its course there. There are still about 17,000 active cases, but few new ones per day, few deaths per day, and a sizeable number of "recoveries" per day. In China, the epidemic lasted about three months, from start to this point.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

There were 103 new cases in Mainland China from the morning of the 7th through late evening on the 9th. There were 900 new cases in the first nine day of March. In comparison, over five days in the middle of February, China reported a total of 8k new cases. So the average per day has tailed off dramatically. That's the point I'm making, not that there are necessarily 3 or 18 or 25 in a short-term period.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Chickenboy posted several pages back about one key reason we'll see a bump in positives in the coming week.

If the data coming from China is true, why would we have more than 1,000,000 cases when China has about 80,000, to this point?

As I noted a page or two back, the epidemic grew quickly in China for about a month, then dramatically leveled out and has remained there. IE, only a few hundred new cases per day.

If we follow that general curve, we should see an increase for about three more weeks, then a leveling out.

I can't envision how we'd have 10 times as many cases as China, or anything close.

I just don't see this happening.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

There were 103 new cases in Mainland China from the morning of the 7th through late evening on the 9th. There were 900 new cases in the first nine day of March. In comparison, over five days in the middle of February, China reported a total of 8k new cases. So the average per day has tailed off dramatically. That's the point I'm making, not that there are necessarily 3 or 18 or 25 in a short-term period.

quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

There were 103 new cases in Mainland China from the morning of the 7th through late evening on the 9th. There were 900 new cases in the first nine day of March. In comparison, over five days in the middle of February, China reported a total of 8k new cases. So the average per day has tailed off dramatically. That's the point I'm making, not that there are necessarily 3 or 18 or 25 in a short-term period.

The point I am making is you are using figures updated too infrequently to make the statements you are making about parts of a day, such as "from the morning of the 7th through late evening on the 9th". The other comparisons you are making are valid (IMO).

quote:

ORIGINAL: Erik Rutins

This is worth reading:

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/10/simple-math-alarming-answers-covid-19/

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I don't think so. I'm using the same source (Johns Hopkins), so the numbers are going to be relatively consistent. And if there's a lag in reporting in the first half of the day, the second half will balance it, etc. That's why I'm using only the one source.

quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

There were 103 new cases in Mainland China from the morning of the 7th through late evening on the 9th. There were 900 new cases in the first nine day of March. In comparison, over five days in the middle of February, China reported a total of 8k new cases. So the average per day has tailed off dramatically. That's the point I'm making, not that there are necessarily 3 or 18 or 25 in a short-term period.

The point I am making is you are using figures updated too infrequently to make the statements you are making about parts of a day, such as "from the morning of the 7th through late evening on the 9th". The other comparisons you are making are valid (IMO).

quote:

ORIGINAL: Kull

quote:

ORIGINAL: Erik Rutins

This is worth reading:

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/10/simple-math-alarming-answers-covid-19/

Since all the really scary stuff in that article starts with the premise that "infection counts double every 6 days", lets take a close look at that. First off, we have the South Korea numbers (posted earlier and updated through today). However, I've added a third column so you can see the % increase compared with the total 6 days earlier. A few things to keep in mind:

- The early counts are ludicrous in size (the totals were too small to be meaningful), so we'll start by comparing the total on 2/28 with the one on 2/20, and will maintain the 6-day comparison up through 3/10 (today)

- When looking at the percentages in the 3rd column, 100% means the numbers doubled, and anything higher means an even greater rate of increase.

OK, here we go:

2/18 - 31
2/19 - 58
2/20 - 111
2/21 - 209
2/22 - 436
2/23 - 602
2/24 - 833
2/25 - 893
2/26 - 1261
2/27 - 1766
2/28 - 2022 - 364%
2/29 - 3150 - 423%
3/1 - 3526 - 323%
3/2 - 4212 - 372%
3/3 - 4812 - 282%
3/4 - 5328 - 202%
3/5 - 6088 - 201%
3/6 - 6593 - 109%
3/7 - 7041 - 100%
3/8 - 7134 - 69%
3/9 - 7382 - 53%
3/10 - 7513 - 41%

Roughly 2 weeks into the epidemic, the 6-day comparisons are extremely high, 300%+. But starting with Day 15 (3/3), it's in the 200's and falling rapidly. To the extent that by today, it's down to 40%. Which means, barring something crazy, the "nightmare scenario" is not happening in South Korea.

OK then, do we have any other examples of relatively reliable data that's "mature" in numbers? (i.e. enough data so it's not just statistical noise) Well let's take a look at Italy. That would appear to be the textbook case (so far) in how NOT to handle this thing. The epidemic took off in Italy around 2/21, so we'll look at the same three columns of data, and will commence the 6-day percent tracking on 3/2 (looking back at 2/25), since it's 10 days in and roughly the same total case count we started with when examining South Korea:

2/21 - 20
2/22 - 79
2/23 - 150
2/24 - 227
2/25 - 320
2/26 - 445
2/27 - 650
2/28 - 888
2/29 - 1128
3/1 - 1694
3/2 - 2036 - 536%
3/3 - 2502 - 462%
3/4 - 3089 - 375%
3/5 - 3858 - 334%
3/6 - 4636 - 311%
3/7 - 5883 - 247%
3/8 - 7375 - 262%
3/9 - 9172 - 267%
3/10 - 10149 - 229%

The only good news is that the rate has dropped noticeably, but nothing like South Korea. In fact it's been stuck in the 200%+ range for 4 days now (which is a 4x increase, not 2x), so you can kind of see why they went uber-draconian today and shut down the whole country (the "China solution").

Anyway, for those interested in seeing how their country is handling this (at least in terms of rate of increase), that's how to analyze your national numbers.

quote:

ORIGINAL: CaptBeefheart

Korea has been doing a heck of a lot of testing, so the numbers reflect the testing catching up to those infected. I think we can say that 99% of anyone with any sort of symptoms, and probably a very high percentage of people with known exposure, have been tested here. That said, yesterday they discovered a patient who worked in a call center here in Seoul, and the number of cases attributed to that is now 90. Fingers crossed that the spike from that is minimal and others don't pop up.

If your part of the world hasn't had museum closures, school closures or the like yet I'd be planning on it.

By the way, I managed to buy a bag of 30 or so rolls of toilet paper at Costco on Sunday. We were actually quite low at home and there was plenty there. It was even on sale. More importantly, the 1.75l Kirkland Canadian Whiskey was only about $26. Also, Costco had a no mask, no entry policy.

Cheers,
CB

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ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

We are doubling detected infections every 3 days. So, 2,000 ... 16k, 32k, 64k, ????????????