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RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/25/2020 10:36:02 PM

Lowpe

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

For the moment I'd say that a herd immunity approach certainly wouldn't have resulted in less deaths and at this point the numbers would suggest (in hindsight) that the way to go was what they have done in Germany/S.Korea.

Some pretty decent biomedical statisticians disagree.

(in reply to Sammy5IsAlive)

Post #: 5821

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/25/2020 10:38:06 PM

Lowpe

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quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

This is a new one. For me anyway. Anyone heard of viruses traveling on polution particles?

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/apr/24/coronavirus-detected-particles-air-pollution?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

Especially in cooler climes...makes sense to me. Can you actually breath enough in to get it...or does it extend the cough radius so to speak.

(in reply to obvert)

Post #: 5822

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/25/2020 10:52:41 PM

Sammy5IsAlive

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

quote:

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

For the moment I'd say that a herd immunity approach certainly wouldn't have resulted in less deaths and at this point the numbers would suggest (in hindsight) that the way to go was what they have done in Germany/S.Korea.

Some pretty decent biomedical statisticians disagree.

They might be right over the long term.

Based on what we have now in terms of numbers the UK could either (in a best/worst case scenario where the lockdown has had no effect) be at where we are now on 299 deaths/M, likely to get up to where Spain and Italy are on about 450 deaths/M or we could be where Germany (70), Portugal (86 - with far less economic resources than we have in the UK) are at.

For the time being I know which position I'd rather we be in.

(in reply to Lowpe)

Post #: 5823

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/25/2020 11:15:55 PM

RangerJoe

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

quote:

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive
Ok that makes much more sense. I'm still not sure which careers have gone permanently so that people can't go back to them once the lockdown has lifted. In terms of the commitment in terms of training etc that would have put in to get going in their career I guess the big one would be airline pilots. Maybe chefs also? Finding it hard to think of other specific examples.

One of my college roommates also served as groomsman at my wedding. Good friend still. He worked for a very well known wafer fabrication design software company in silicon valley. 51 years old. Been with this company for 25 years. He and his entire team let go en masse last week. Since nobody is buying anything (including the largest companies in the world), they had no use for sales and service teams. They got a small severance package.

Ageism is rampant in silicon valley. An 'old timer' like him may be eventually replaced. But it won't be by a 51 year old. It'll be by a twenty-something from India most likely. The mature leavening he provided his teams won't be reproduced. He will look for something, but odds that he can get back to where he was are nil. So his career is effectively over in this industry. It's a hard pill to swallow, but it is what it is.

Maybe not:

Trump Halts New Green Cards, but Backs Off Broader Immigration Ban

After pledging on Twitter to end immigration during the pandemic, President Trump moved to block new green cards but stopped short of ending all work visas.

quote:

Mr. Trump said that his order would initially be in effect for 60 days, but that he might extend it �based on economic conditions at the time.�

�We can do that at a little bit different time if we want,� he said of a second executive order that could further restrict immigration.
.
.
.
�By pausing immigration, we will help put unemployed Americans first in line for jobs as America reopens. So important,� the president said. �It would be wrong and unjust for Americans laid off by the virus to be replaced with new immigrant labor flown in from abroad. We must first take care of the American worker.�

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/21/us/politics/coronavirus-trump-immigration-ban.html

Apparently, the immigrant farm workers are NOT affected. Maybe not technical specialists either, such as engineers.

_____________________________

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(in reply to Chickenboy)

Post #: 5824

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/25/2020 11:29:09 PM

mind_messing

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

quote:

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive
Ok that makes much more sense. I'm still not sure which careers have gone permanently so that people can't go back to them once the lockdown has lifted. In terms of the commitment in terms of training etc that would have put in to get going in their career I guess the big one would be airline pilots. Maybe chefs also? Finding it hard to think of other specific examples.

One of my college roommates also served as groomsman at my wedding. Good friend still. He worked for a very well known wafer fabrication design software company in silicon valley. 51 years old. Been with this company for 25 years. He and his entire team let go en masse last week. Since nobody is buying anything (including the largest companies in the world), they had no use for sales and service teams. They got a small severance package.

Ageism is rampant in silicon valley. An 'old timer' like him may be eventually replaced. But it won't be by a 51 year old. It'll be by a twenty-something from India most likely. The mature leavening he provided his teams won't be reproduced. He will look for something, but odds that he can get back to where he was are nil. So his career is effectively over in this industry. It's a hard pill to swallow, but it is what it is.

This should serve as a sombre reminder that the notion of "company loyalty" or "a company man" is not a mutually beneficial relationship.

This crisis should, I hope, have served as a wake-up call to the extent to which the bottom line trumps all other concerns.

(in reply to Chickenboy)

Post #: 5825

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/26/2020 12:07:21 AM

Lowpe

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This is an article from a Stanford Biomedical Statistician all the way back in March 30. I think many on the board will find it interesting.

https://www.stress.org/stanford-professor-data-indicates-were-severely-overreacting-to-coronavirus

(in reply to mind_messing)

Post #: 5826

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/26/2020 12:28:00 AM

Sammy5IsAlive

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

This is an article from a Stanford Biomedical Statistician all the way back in March 30. I think many on the board will find it interesting.

https://www.stress.org/stanford-professor-data-indicates-were-severely-overreacting-to-coronavirus

The full article is here https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/.

I think it is worth pointing out that the date the article was written was 17th March - more than a month ago. A lot of water has passed under the bridge since then.

The original article is much more nuanced than the stress.org headline (and to a lesser extent the content of their article) suggests.

You can see the jump just by comparing the respective headlines:

Stanford Professor: Data Indicates We�re Severely Overreacting To Coronavirus

vs

A fiasco in the making? As the coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data

Emphasis my own

I think the original article is very interesting and definitely gives food for thought. For me the overarching message is that we don't have the data to know where we are at but if it turns out that they are closer to the Diamond Princess we will have massively over-reacted. The problem is that we don't have the benefit of hindsight to know how representative those results are compared to 'normal' populations and healthcare systems.

From my perspective if there is not enough data to know what to do either way long term - the best thing to do is to be cautious and reduce deaths in the short term till you have more data. Until of course economies start approaching a state of collapse and it is clear that there is no other option than to open things up and take whatever happens in terms of deaths on the chin. I don't think we are quite at that point yet - at least in the UK. Maybe the US economy is taking more of a pasting and needs to take that 'jump into the unknown' sooner rather than later.

< Message edited by Sammy5IsAlive -- 4/26/2020 1:28:25 AM >

(in reply to Lowpe)

Post #: 5827

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/26/2020 1:43:03 AM

RangerJoe

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Certain sectors of the system will have to open soon. The farm work needs to be done. The harvesting and processing of the produce needs to get done, corona virus or not. Yes, the grain can be done without as many workers, but not the fruits and vegetables.

Of course, the barley most definitely needs to get taken care of so the barley pop can be produced . . .

_____________________________

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I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

�Illegitemus non carborundum est (�Don�t let the bastards grind you down�).�
― Julia Child

(in reply to Sammy5IsAlive)

Post #: 5828

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/26/2020 1:54:32 AM

RangerJoe

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Detroit health care worker dies after being denied coronavirus test 4 times, daughter says

quote:

Corrothers said what bothers her most is that her mother was not treated well at the hospital where she worked for 31 years. She hopes that people do not get discouraged from seeking help the way her mother did after being turned away multiple times.
"If people feel symptoms, go to the doctor. You're the only person who knows how you feel," Corrothers said. "If you can't get treated at one hospital, go to another."
When she thinks of her mother, Corrothers said there is one thought that lingers: "This did not have to happen this way."

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/detroit-health-care-worker-dies-after-being-denied-coronavirus-test-4-times-daughter-says/ar-BB13c4Sn

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

�Illegitemus non carborundum est (�Don�t let the bastards grind you down�).�
― Julia Child

(in reply to RangerJoe)

Post #: 5829

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/26/2020 2:28:09 AM

Canoerebel

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John Dillworth wrote that he's been busy and doing well.

(in reply to RangerJoe)

Post #: 5830

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/26/2020 2:43:04 AM

RangerJoe

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That is good.

_____________________________

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I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

�Illegitemus non carborundum est (�Don�t let the bastards grind you down�).�
― Julia Child

(in reply to Canoerebel)

Post #: 5831

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/26/2020 3:41:59 AM

Lowpe

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive
I don't think we are quite at that point yet - at least in the UK. Maybe the US economy is taking more of a pasting and needs to take that 'jump into the unknown' sooner rather than later.

Since you found the article, and the other it links to interesting, perhaps you will enjoy a half hour interview of a biomedical statistician from a week or two back. It is a half hour long or so.

https://www.iheart.com/podcast/269-john-solomon-reports-56193541/episode/biomedical-statistician-challenges-narrative-on-benefits-61236219/

(in reply to Sammy5IsAlive)

Post #: 5832

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/26/2020 4:49:39 AM

Chickenboy

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Just read the Belgian report guys:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-25/why-the-world-s-highest-virus-death-rate-is-in-europe-s-capital

It's all about the nursing homes. It's all about the nursing homes. Everything about the mortality is about the nursing homes. Everywhere.

_____________________________

(in reply to Lowpe)

Post #: 5833

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/26/2020 7:26:58 AM

obvert

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

This is an article from a Stanford Biomedical Statistician all the way back in March 30. I think many on the board will find it interesting.

https://www.stress.org/stanford-professor-data-indicates-were-severely-overreacting-to-coronavirus

This has been linked and discussed previously. The difficulty with the premiss in this article is partly that it only uses a portion of his thoughts on the subject. This is the longer and more complete version.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/

The original posting in Stat is actually from March 17, so even earlier. His prediction for US mortality is quite far off now.

If we assume that case fatality rate among individuals infected by SARS-CoV-2 is 0.3% in the general population � a mid-range guess from my Diamond Princess analysis � and that 1% of the U.S. population gets infected (about 3.3 million people), this would translate to about 10,000 deaths.

The general premiss is that we need more information about how the disease works, but he predicts and advocates based on this incomplete information to support his argument that lockdowns are not more costly than they are worth.

The closures are so difficult for all of us, and the economies, but to flatten the initial curve they have been essential, and now hopefully countries can open gradually along the lines of South Korea and keep more businesses going while increasing protection for more vulnerable people.

A few criticisms are also posted under the report.

This author fails to take that into consideration, as well as the contagion factor. Th fact that COVID19�s viral shed factor is 1,000 times greater than influenza, and it�s peak shed is during incubation when many times there are no symptoms (as opposed to influenza, which peaks after it settles into the lungs).

In the same article that you use the Diamond Princess cruise ship as a case study for fatality rates, you estimate that 1% of the U.S population might be infected. The Diamond Princess cruise ship saw nearly 25% of the ship�s passengers infected. Perhaps multiple your �lost in the noise� 10,000 influenza-like deaths by 20+.

�I�m sitting at home after my office closed today and still wondering why my country�s economy is being destroyed by panic.�

��and the death rate will turn out to be about what the flu is. It seems most likely.�

If you want to know why then read more of the readers comments and you will see why. The contagion factor is excluded from the authors analysis, which makes his theory just as incomplete as the missing data he complains about.

< Message edited by obvert -- 4/26/2020 7:27:29 AM >

_____________________________

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Post #: 5834

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/26/2020 7:53:29 AM

obvert

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

quote:

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

For the moment I'd say that a herd immunity approach certainly wouldn't have resulted in less deaths and at this point the numbers would suggest (in hindsight) that the way to go was what they have done in Germany/S.Korea.

Some pretty decent biomedical statisticians disagree.

They might be right over the long term.

Based on what we have now in terms of numbers the UK could either (in a best/worst case scenario where the lockdown has had no effect) be at where we are now on 299 deaths/M, likely to get up to where Spain and Italy are on about 450 deaths/M or we could be where Germany (70), Portugal (86 - with far less economic resources than we have in the UK) are at.

For the time being I know which position I'd rather we be in.

I agree, mostly. It could be though that the lasting effect of the delay in mitigation measures in the UK could result in a greater portion of the population of working age and younger infected. If there are more 5-65 year-old people infected who had relatively mild cases, this would allow the economy to open more quickly and stay open more fully and consistently. I imagine also the bulk of the workforce is in the 20-50 range, which statistically have had more mild cases of Covid and thus probably more have been infected since many of those cases would have had longer asymptomatic periods.

I'm guessing by the mortality rates and the low testing in the UK that the newer studies showing that actual infection rates could be 50-85x higher than listed would put the UK closer to the 85x higher range. Germany's mortality rate would indicate they have been very successful in reducing the number of serious cases, but may also have reduced the number of total cases. That might make it harder going forward and into the autumn. Who knows, really? But many of their monitoring techniques for known cases should be adopted ASAP to reduce severity of individual cases.

147,377 x 50 = 7,418,850 (11.2% of the UK population)
147,377 x 85 = 12,527,045 (18.8% of the UK population)

Only about half of the UK population are working, about 33 million estimated for early 2020. Targeted serology tests of representative random populations by different age groups could be useful to help with opening strategies soon, if those tests can be made reliable.

< Message edited by obvert -- 4/26/2020 7:56:11 AM >

_____________________________

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Post #: 5835

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/26/2020 7:59:05 AM

obvert

Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

This is an article from a Stanford Biomedical Statistician all the way back in March 30. I think many on the board will find it interesting.

https://www.stress.org/stanford-professor-data-indicates-were-severely-overreacting-to-coronavirus

The full article is here https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/.

I think it is worth pointing out that the date the article was written was 17th March - more than a month ago. A lot of water has passed under the bridge since then.

The original article is much more nuanced than the stress.org headline (and to a lesser extent the content of their article) suggests.

You can see the jump just by comparing the respective headlines:

Stanford Professor: Data Indicates We�re Severely Overreacting To Coronavirus

vs

A fiasco in the making? As the coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data

Emphasis my own

I think the original article is very interesting and definitely gives food for thought. For me the overarching message is that we don't have the data to know where we are at but if it turns out that they are closer to the Diamond Princess we will have massively over-reacted. The problem is that we don't have the benefit of hindsight to know how representative those results are compared to 'normal' populations and healthcare systems.

From my perspective if there is not enough data to know what to do either way long term - the best thing to do is to be cautious and reduce deaths in the short term till you have more data. Until of course economies start approaching a state of collapse and it is clear that there is no other option than to open things up and take whatever happens in terms of deaths on the chin. I don't think we are quite at that point yet - at least in the UK. Maybe the US economy is taking more of a pasting and needs to take that 'jump into the unknown' sooner rather than later.

I didn't read down to your response before my post! Could have saved me some time.

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

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Post #: 5836

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/26/2020 8:04:12 AM

obvert

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

This is a new one. For me anyway. Anyone heard of viruses traveling on polution particles?

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/apr/24/coronavirus-detected-particles-air-pollution?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

Especially in cooler climes...makes sense to me. Can you actually breath enough in to get it...or does it extend the cough radius so to speak.

There are several unknowns here, but there have already been studies showing that areas of density with high pollution in Europe especially showed higher rates of serious infections. Whether this is due to damage caused by the pollution in the lungs or from a more effective transmission through pollution particle transport is not understood.

The idea is that an aerosolised droplet containing virus could be 0.1-1 micron, while pollution particles can be 10 microns, so they function as tiny gliders for the droplet particles.

I'd guess that whatever the cases, the closer you are the more of it you're going to get, so getting one droplet at 100 meters transported by a pollution particle might not be enough to kickstart an infection. But maybe it is? Anyone?

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

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Post #: 5837

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/26/2020 11:23:31 AM

MakeeLearn

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...

Attachment (1)

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Post #: 5838

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/26/2020 11:39:47 AM

Lowpe

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A New York Times Opinion piece about the virus, lockdown, and New York.

America Shouldn�t Have to Play by New York Rules

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/24/opinion/coronavirus-lockdown.html

(in reply to MakeeLearn)

Post #: 5839

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/26/2020 11:46:39 AM

obvert

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

A New York Times Opinion piece about the virus, lockdown, and New York.

America Shouldn�t Have to Play by New York Rules

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/24/opinion/coronavirus-lockdown.html

A good piece. It is lacking though in statistical backup about how and when to open different locations. It's an opinion piece, and a justified one.

I am hoping things get opened everywhere sooner rather than later myself. The most important piece is really communication and effective measures for continuing the low transmission rates achieved by the lockdowns, or this will all have been in vain.

_____________________________

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Post #: 5840

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/26/2020 11:47:19 AM

Lowpe

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quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert
His prediction for US mortality is quite far off now.

For the time the article was printed it was far far closer than any of the models.

but to flatten the initial curve they (economic lockdown) have been essential

I don't think that has been proven at all other than simplistic headlines.

(in reply to obvert)

Post #: 5841

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/26/2020 11:57:59 AM

obvert

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This a look at testing in the UK. There has been a lot of criticism of methods for ramping up measures, testing and getting PPE here in the UK. The mortality rate is higher than many other European countries. The health system has had some bumps, but hasn't been overwhelmed except in specific locations for shorts periods, and while the PPE problem is big, other problems like medications running out are also beginning to emerge.

Testing here is increasing, but may not reach the target of 100k/day by the end of April.

The UK is now 9th in the world though in total tests performed. It is much lower (off this chart low at number 37 in test/million population).

The UK is now 2nd highest in % of tests that come back positive at 23.2%

The UK is now 9th in positive test/million population at 2,197/million.

The high % positive rate is indicative of the tests being mostly available to people already in hospital with symptoms. This would indicate though a much higher rate of infection across the population as well. The WHO advocates for a 10% positive % to begin reopening after lockdowns.

So as testing increases it'll be interesting to see if the % positive number goes down, or stays the same. The curve has flattened, new case numbers are dropping, as are mortalities per day. I hope that by mid-to-late May some things will begin opening again. Pubs, hopefully, and nurseries.

Attachment (1)

< Message edited by obvert -- 4/26/2020 3:46:58 PM >

_____________________________

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Post #: 5842

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/26/2020 12:06:33 PM

obvert

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert
His prediction for US mortality is quite far off now.

For the time the article was printed it was far far closer than any of the models.

Not really. He said 10k without a lockdown. We've gone over that in the US in a month with a lockdown. Right?

In addition, because mortality is a lagging statistic, sometimes by 2-4 weeks, the cases that were actually being transmitted during the time he was publishing were still adding to the mortality rates a month later as well. Most probably the number of cases existing by that time of publication would have resulted in much higher than that 10k number (or cases that led to 10k+ deaths) well before lockdowns were implemented.

quote:

but to flatten the initial curve they (economic lockdown) have been essential

I don't think that has been proven at all other than simplistic headlines.

Actually, its been quite demonstrably proven by a number of countries having flattened the curve through lockdowns. Without lockdowns you'd see what happened in the initial stages in Italy, with hospitals being overwhelmed. That was due to the lockdown starting well after the infection had taken hold and transmitted extensively in the community. We've heard here both from Italians and experts that without those closures the entire country would have been as bad as Lombardy and areas of the North. Not good.

If you need more info we can dredge some up, but it's in the thread and in many of the graphs showing how the curve responds to lockdown dates. It's very easy to see if you look at two very similar countries, France and the UK. France is faring better now as they locked down earlier in their curve.

This is from the FT. It shows the lockdown dates as little stars to the left for each country. I've posted these throughout the thread and earlier it was quite apparent how the curve responded to the lockdown date more or less after two weeks of measures being in place.

Attachment (1)

< Message edited by obvert -- 4/26/2020 12:13:03 PM >

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Post #: 5843

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/26/2020 12:30:00 PM

Chickenboy

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

Just read the Belgian report guys:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-25/why-the-world-s-highest-virus-death-rate-is-in-europe-s-capital

It's all about the nursing homes. It's all about the nursing homes. Everything about the mortality is about the nursing homes. Everywhere.

Yeesh. This is what happens when you're reading about the impact of COVID-19 globally and you've had too many glasses of wine.

But I was struck with just how much of the mortality globally is in nursing homes and how disproportionate the effect seems to have been. Sweden, Canada, Belgium, etc.-if you you can account for / control exposure in your nursing home populations you go a long ways towards reducing the impact of this disease. And maybe we can all figure out a way to get back on with life for everyone else that's not in a nursing home.

The article I linked also expounded on why Belgium has the highest rate of deaths in Europe and globally. As we've talked about here numerous times, it's all in how you record 'deaths'. Belgians are casting a broad net and calling everything about 'excess mortality' 'presumptive COVID-19 deaths'. The German methodology caught some flak here-they apparently are still only calling confirmed virus positive deaths as 'COVID-19' deaths.

IMO, both lead to distorted pictures of the impact-the Belgians are probably overcounting and the Germans undercounting. The article discussed a pan-European effort to standardize how mortality will be counted or restated. But it is unclear when or if this will be adopted.

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/26/2020 12:34:32 PM

Chickenboy

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

A New York Times Opinion piece about the virus, lockdown, and New York.

America Shouldn�t Have to Play by New York Rules

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/24/opinion/coronavirus-lockdown.html

Exactly so. We've been on to this here for some time, but nice to hear it dawning on the New York Times.

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/26/2020 12:43:33 PM

Canoerebel

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From what I've seen of the raw data here in Georgia, plus similar reports elsewhere, I think the wine-sensitive Chickenboy is right.

The Georgia mortalities have overwhelmingly been the elderly. The most deadly breakouts here occurred in nursing homes, assisted living, and choir- and funeral-related functions. Protect the elderly and prohibit dense gatherings where people are singing (or otherwise exhaling strongly, as in sporting matches) and that seemingly would address nearly all situations here.

I recall an early study that said you had a 10% chance of catching the virus if another member of your household had it. The odds dropped dramatically if there was a person in your workplace. And outdoors in a spread out environment? Basically no chance.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 4/26/2020 12:44:20 PM >

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Post #: 5846

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/26/2020 12:50:33 PM

Canoerebel

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Here's a segment of the Georgia Department of Health mortality chart for Dougherty County. Look at the ages.

Dougherty is the southwest Georgia county that suffered a big per-capita outbreak when the virus spread through two big funerals.

The link: https://dph.georgia.gov/covid-19-daily-status-report

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Post #: 5847

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/26/2020 12:54:44 PM

Chickenboy

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Here's a segment of the Georgia Department of Health mortality chart for Dougherty County. Look at the ages.

Dougherty is the southwest Georgia county that suffered a big per-capita outbreak when the virus spread through two big funerals.

The link: https://dph.georgia.gov/covid-19-daily-status-report

What's the Yes/Unk column on the right?

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Post #: 5848

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/26/2020 12:56:52 PM

Lowpe

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quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

Actually, its been quite demonstrably proven by a number of countries having flattened the curve through lockdowns. Without lockdowns you'd see what happened in the initial stages in Italy, with hospitals being overwhelmed.

There are plenty of places that didn't lockdown and aren't overwhelmed. How do you explain that?

To ascribe lockdowns as the culpable factor in flattening the curve, which is not a scientific proven fact but rather a hypothesis, at this stage is wrong. Sure, we have all gone thru extensive pain from the disease and lockdown and want to believe it is working as advertised.

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Post #: 5849

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/26/2020 1:11:33 PM

Canoerebel

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To Chickenboy: The "Yes/UNK" column is whether there was a known underlying cause of death - presumably a contributing factor like diabetes or hypertension.

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