Slitherine

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ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

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ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Another Stanford physician's conclusions: Scott W. Atlas, MD, is the David and Joan Traitel Senior Fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution and the former chief of neuroradiology at Stanford University Medical Center.

https://thehill.com/opinion/healthcare/494034-the-data-are-in-stop-the-panic-and-end-the-total-isolation

Well said. It's what we're all thinking, but succinctly summarized.

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ORIGINAL: HansBolter

Don't make the ccure worse than the disease.

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ORIGINAL: obvert

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ORIGINAL: HansBolter

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ORIGINAL: obvert

Another avenue for finding new hotspots and more reliably measuring the number of people with Cornavirus. Sewage.

https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/04/24/new-castle-county-poop-suggests-higher-covid-19-infection-rate/3019927001/

Last week, county officials sent a sample of raw sewage from the Wilmington Wastewater Treatment plant on 12th Street to a Massachusetts Institute of Technology startup. There, they compared the prevalence of genetic fragments from the virus in fecal matter against local population data and sewage flow rates – all in an effort to estimate how many people may have the virus.

The company's analysis estimated that 15,200 people – three percent of the population north of the Chesapeake & Delaware Canal – had the virus as of April 14. That number is approximately 15 times the laboratory confirmed cases in the county as of the sample date.

That kind of analysis is so rife with speculation and assumptions on what values to assign variables that it likely isn't any more accurate than measuring cosmological distances using the red shifting of light.

Was a speculated margin of error stated?

A creative exercise in how to find ways to spend tax dollar science funding.

Hans, do some research. Until you find it doesn't work, why negate it? It's being used in a number of tests around the world. Researchers in the Netherlands for instance found it in the waste before there was a known case in one town. So it is useful in several ways.

Have a read instead of finding the negative without looking into it.

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ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

My main problem with the WHO diagnosis codes is they have 26,000 possible codes plus probably millions of modifiers so you literally have to look everything up. Then there are hundreds of idiosyncratic rules like an "O" code only applies to a pregnant woman not to the baby even though the baby has a problem related to the gestational diabetes. With the ICD-9 codes I had many hundreds of codes committed to memory but they threw those out and now they give the time consuming task to the busiest people in the system or cause the hiring of trained new coders. Cleverly, the WHO charged a royalty fee on the millions of 6 lb coding books published.

With "Attack by Emperor Penguin, second encounter" there is a modifier "with cognitive impairment" or "without cognitive impairment"

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ORIGINAL: Lowpe

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ORIGINAL: witpqs

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ORIGINAL: Lowpe

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ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

I would not be surprised that even if restrictions were relaxed that the number of cases would not dramatically increase. Some will still stay in seclusion, especially those at high risk, while others may get infected but not seriously enough to be tested. I think that most people will still be careful, but some may not. Also, there is a much smaller chance of catching it outside.

I agree, people are simply petrified here in my neck of Pennsylvania. I got a survey from my gym (Planet Fitness) and one of the questions is would sanitizing locker rooms every 15 minutes important to me. In addition to a whole slew of questions regarding the sanitizing everything and density of equipment and limiting people, and greater spacing, etc.

My sister, who needs to go to the gym to fight osteopenia/osteoporosis, complains about how many people don't wipe off machines when they are done with them. I'm talking about before COVID-19, just leaving pools of sweat on benches, handles dripping wet, and so on. Suddenly gyms are going to disinfect locker rooms every 15 minutes? And the air is a huge issue, so they would have to have large air handlers with UV or something to disinfect that. Sounds like a difficult business going forward.

A lot of gyms are notoriously bad on their membership agreements and canceling your membership.

I particularly joined this gym because of it's very lenient membership agreements and have not been disappointed.

Most of the membership is older, at least during the times I go, and I would say about 90 percent wipe down their equipment after use. I have only seen pools of sweat a few times. The staff is there to train, but I always seem them cleaning equipment and areas. To me it never looked unsanitary and the air circulation was strong. So I was happy, and can't wait to return. I miss it in my daily routine and it would be a shame if this is fatal to them.

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ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Yes, this does reflect what many of us are thinking.

There are interesting nuggets too - mortality rate at 0.1% to 0.2%? That's what you were talking about on February 26, Chickenboy, when WHO and others were at 3% to 4%.

Isn't 0.1% to 0.2% the seasonal flu mortality rate? Six or eight weeks ago, all the mainstream sources were scoffing at that. It was reflected here, too, though this group had sufficient numbers to offset the inaccuracies with more valid analysis and conclusions.

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ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

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ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Another Stanford physician's conclusions: Scott W. Atlas, MD, is the David and Joan Traitel Senior Fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution and the former chief of neuroradiology at Stanford University Medical Center.

https://thehill.com/opinion/healthcare/494034-the-data-are-in-stop-the-panic-and-end-the-total-isolation

Well said. It's what we're all thinking, but succinctly summarized.

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ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Yes, this does reflect what many of us are thinking.

There are interesting nuggets too - mortality rate at 0.1% to 0.2%? That's what you were talking about on February 26, Chickenboy, when WHO and others were at 3% to 4%.

Isn't 0.1% to 0.2% the seasonal flu mortality rate? Six or eight weeks ago, all the mainstream sources were scoffing at that. It was reflected here, too, though this group had sufficient numbers to offset the inaccuracies with more valid analysis and conclusions.

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ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

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ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Another Stanford physician's conclusions: Scott W. Atlas, MD, is the David and Joan Traitel Senior Fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution and the former chief of neuroradiology at Stanford University Medical Center.

https://thehill.com/opinion/healthcare/494034-the-data-are-in-stop-the-panic-and-end-the-total-isolation

Well said. It's what we're all thinking, but succinctly summarized.

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ORIGINAL: Chickenboy




Some of the things I'm pondering:

1. How will people start responding to sit-down restaurants with staggered seating and servers wearing masks? (@Captbeefheart-how has this been accepted in Korea?)
2. What will become of the cruise ship industry? While none of the majors are domestically flagged, they employ something like 500,000 Americans. How about airlines? They employ about 4 times as many.
3. What happens with nursing homes-by far our most sensitive population?
4. What happens with gymnasiums?
5. What happens with outdoor spectator sports? What happens with indoor spectator sports? Here, I'm talking MLB and NBA for the short term, NFL in the Fall.
6. What happens with religious services?
7. Will people's willingness to take minor public safeguards (e.g., mask wearing, good hand hygiene) 'stick' for 12 months?
8. What does our GDP look like at year's end and how long will it take to undo this terrible bout of unemployment?

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ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

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ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

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ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Thanks Makee...

Not sure if anyone finds local Pennsylvania covid reporting interesting, but a few pages back I posted a link to the reduction of deaths in PA from a relatively right wing rural paper.

Here is the story from a relatively left wing big city paper:

https://www.inquirer.com/health/coronavirus/spl/pennsylvania-death-count-changes-confusion-coroanvirus-20200423.html

"Pa. removes more than 200 deaths from official coronavirus count as questions mount about reporting process, data accuracy"

-------------


Since Cv19 kills men more than women, I now identify as "Anastasia" a Ukrainian peasant woman.
Sorry my hair looks so disheveled. Iam having a bad hair day.

Anastasia your lips and pectorals are horribly swollen!

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ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

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ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Yes, this does reflect what many of us are thinking.

There are interesting nuggets too - mortality rate at 0.1% to 0.2%? That's what you were talking about on February 26, Chickenboy, when WHO and others were at 3% to 4%.

Isn't 0.1% to 0.2% the seasonal flu mortality rate? Six or eight weeks ago, all the mainstream sources were scoffing at that. It was reflected here, too, though this group had sufficient numbers to offset the inaccuracies with more valid analysis and conclusions.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Another Stanford physician's conclusions: Scott W. Atlas, MD, is the David and Joan Traitel Senior Fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution and the former chief of neuroradiology at Stanford University Medical Center.

https://thehill.com/opinion/healthcare/494034-the-data-are-in-stop-the-panic-and-end-the-total-isolation

Well said. It's what we're all thinking, but succinctly summarized.

I was pointing out yesterday (#5874) that the 3-4% predicted CFR was actually close to the mark for many states. But that's not what most pundits really mean. They're conflating the 'IFR' ('If I get this virus, will I die?') with CFR (RT-PCR positive, clinical signs, +/- additional medical care needed).

The IFR is (unknown / unknowable) and probably 10-20 times less.

I'm pleased that this will only be a 'really bad flu year' in terms of mortality. Could have been worse. I really believe that. What we've done has been necessary. We've gained a much more complete picture of what to expect from this virus.

Now what we have to do (reopen the economy) is necessary.

Some of the things I'm pondering:

1. How will people start responding to sit-down restaurants with staggered seating and servers wearing masks? (@Captbeefheart-how has this been accepted in Korea?)
2. What will become of the cruise ship industry? While none of the majors are domestically flagged, they employ something like 500,000 Americans. How about airlines? They employ about 4 times as many.
3. What happens with nursing homes-by far our most sensitive population?
4. What happens with gymnasiums?
5. What happens with outdoor spectator sports? What happens with indoor spectator sports? Here, I'm talking MLB and NBA for the short term, NFL in the Fall.
6. What happens with religious services?
7. Will people's willingness to take minor public safeguards (e.g., mask wearing, good hand hygiene) 'stick' for 12 months?
8. What does our GDP look like at year's end and how long will it take to undo this terrible bout of unemployment?

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ORIGINAL: fcooke

Had some peasant bread the last few days - I think a new addition to our local supermarket. It was pretty darn good. I'm hoping our local farmer's market opens up soon....but we just had a local mayor of a pretty small town (Tuxedo NY I believe), basically close Harriman STATE park by closing road access to it. Seems like a bit of over-reach to me.

I'm going to have at least one of my dogs run in an upcoming election.

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ORIGINAL: geofflambert

Keep hearing that even when they have enough tests, they're short on swabs to administer them. I was wondering why they can't check all the bars on the waterfront and impress as many as they need?

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ORIGINAL: fcooke

but she will eat any worm or insect she can find (wasn't big enough to take out a garbage can)

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ORIGINAL: fcooke

We have 4 of the little furry things - none bigger than 22 pounds, all rescues with various understanding of their respective histories. The oldest one, and most recent addition to the pack, now weighs in at 14 pounds (given up by a woman moving to a facility that did not allow pets). She is a master at opening the gate leading to the front of the house (inside - in place because she was never really house trained).

The one we have the most history on is about 4 now - she can move any gate with ease. And she is a whopping 13 pounds.

The one we have the least history on was found in Jersey City. A place where large fighting dogs are sadly fought and then abandoned. So this little critter weighs in at 14 pounds as well. She is very territorial. I have no idea how she made it on the streets of Jersey City, but she will eat any worm or insect she can find (wasn't big enough to take out a garbage can)

And then the pack leader, Bailey. Coming up on about ten now. Given up because he was not 'playful' enough. Turns out he had ear infections so bad that he scratched his cheeks into scabs. Once solved he became a really good pack member (he is lead).

I will put any one of them up for office.

If you are a critter lover - there have been many more adoptions during this thing - I just hope they stick and we don't have a bunch of surrenders a few months from now.

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ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

It does make me wonder about rats. Felines, canines, bats. Not hard to believe rodents might harbor it as well.

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ORIGINAL: fcooke

A Good Friday rescue - very cool. How many years ago was that?