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RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/3/2020 12:08:01 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Yeah, the numbers are surely all kinds of wonky. But we've been using Worldometers from the start and there doesn't seem to be a better source.

The Univ. of Washington projections incorporate mortality numbers past, and projections for the future. It seems to be a widely-used and respected source and tends to track with Worldometers. But there will be uncertainties whether those numbers include multitudes of people who actually died of some other malady while also testing positive for the virus, or whether lots of Covid cases were missed in the hubbub of dealing with this.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 5/3/2020 12:09:09 PM >

(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 6451
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/3/2020 12:21:17 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 22133
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: offline 		New York's Flu tracker:

https://nyshc.health.ny.gov/web/nyapd/new-york-state-flu-tracker

We just finished week 17.




Attachment (1)

(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 6452
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/3/2020 12:21:44 PM   
Cap Mandrake


Posts: 23184
Joined: 11/15/2002
From: Southern California
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn


The Chinese may have decided that "if we are to suffer, then everyone else will too." Especially economically. "Level the playing field."


Yes, that is my suspicion as well. It either HAS to be that or face-saving on a global scale or an absolutely epic level of negligence or incompetence. Once the CCP got involved, the quarantine of Wuhan was handed with a ruthlessness that could only work in an authoritarian state. They would have to have had very good information to take such a seemingly self-destructive act that could not be hidden from the world.

(in reply to MakeeLearn)
Post #: 6453
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/3/2020 12:25:47 PM   
Cap Mandrake


Posts: 23184
Joined: 11/15/2002
From: Southern California
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

New York's Flu tracker:

https://nyshc.health.ny.gov/web/nyapd/new-york-state-flu-tracker

We just finished week 17.





So influenza was pretty much gone by March 2nd. That is how it seemed out here too.

(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 6454
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/3/2020 1:29:03 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 13450
Joined: 11/16/2015
From: My Mother, although my Father had some small part.
Status: offline 		I wonder how many of those "flu" cases were actually CoViD-19

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to Cap Mandrake)
Post #: 6455
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/3/2020 1:40:22 PM   
witpqs


Posts: 26087
Joined: 10/4/2004
From: Argleton
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

CNBC is running a headline about the USA having just experienced it's "Deadliest Day." The article then opens by describing how various states are easing countermeasures in the face of this news. The implications are that states are proceeding recklessly. But to get this story, CNBC fiddled with the data.

CNBC cherry-picked a 24-hour period spanning two days to get this highest total. Contrary to it's assertion, neither Thursday nor Friday were the deadliest days. The deadliest day was April 21, more than a week earlier, with 2,683 mortalities. Since then, deaths have been gradually, then a bit more, dropping.

CNB cherry-picked a 24-hour-period over two days to find the highest possible concentration of numbers. The problem with that approach is that the balance of those two days would then be hours with far less reported mortalities, so that if CNB ran the numbers for the 24 hours before or after the 24 cherrypicked, the mortality numbers would be drastically lower. But that story won't be run.

Another example of major media outlet running numbers without context - telling the truth without telling the whole truth, in effect telling a lie. Sensationalism, half-truths and untruths aren't badges of integrity.

Yup. Playing with words to deceive 'without lying' is a child's definition of lying. When one undertakes to deceive, one is lying.

Directly stating false facts is one method of lying. Playing with words and context is merely more sophisticated, but is still lying.

_____________________________

Intel Monkey: https://sites.google.com/view/staffmonkeys/home

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 6456
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/3/2020 1:41:55 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 13450
Joined: 11/16/2015
From: My Mother, although my Father had some small part.
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

More on China.

United Front groups in Canada helped Beijing stockpile coronavirus safety supplies

https://globalnews.ca/news/6858818/coronavirus-china-united-front-canada-protective-equipment-shortage/?utm_source=%40globalnews&utm_medium=Twitter


While I am not a lawyer, in my opinion, every group and person involved in this may now be targets of lawsuits. If the CCP also worked with criminal organizations, may it not also be labeled as such?

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 6457
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/3/2020 2:13:59 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 22133
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: offline
The false parallels of the 1918 Spanish flu

https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2020/05/the_false_parallels_of_the_1918_spanish_flu.html


(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 6458
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/3/2020 2:36:48 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		While doing a google search for "reports of mortality declining," I stumbled across a March 30 news report/analysis of the newly-created IHME (Univ. of Washington) model. See report here: http://nautil.us/blog/be-wary-of-a-model-that-shows-a-decline-in-covid_19-deaths .

Reading this showed how well or poorly IHME did in its earliest projections. I like the model but it turns out it didn't do very well early on. It missed too high for some states and regions and too low for others. Often, considerably so.

The media (and a few forumites) picked up on those early projections, made their own analysis, and came up with conclusions that turned out to be flawed. In late March, IHME seriously overestimated mortality in southern states like Florida and Arkansas, and in the biggest state, California. Conversely, it drastically underestimated mortality in New York and other northern regions, including New Jersey and Michigan. See image below.

The news media picked up on the negative projections for the South and predicted the region would suffer disproportionately. Naturally, some forumites picked up on that. As weeks passed and data came in indicating this wasn't true, the forumites asked for "more time" to receive data. When a week passed, and then another, and then two more, the data continued to show that it wasn't the South suffering disproportionately. It was the North. The media (and concerned forumites) haven't addressed this. The faulty projections and negative portrayals simply faded into the past, unacknowledged and without any effort to self-critique, clarify or contextualize.

IHME continually revises its projections to take into account actual numbers and so forth, thus usually generating updates that get closer and closer to actual data. Despite it's early miscalls it has been a useful tool.

Data keeps coming in, so nothing is final yet. But it does appear that NE USA has absorbed the hardest blows in round one. As I've noted previously, this probably isn't because the southern states did things better - there's probably an element of luck involved and other criteria might've been determinative, like air pollution, population density, etc. Certainly the northeast has excellent medical care.

As for the google search to find media articles looking into the decline in mortality in the US? Nothing popped up in the first search. I'll try again later.




Attachment (1)

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 5/3/2020 2:45:02 PM >

(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 6459
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/3/2020 2:47:29 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Very early on in here, there were predictions that Florida would be particularly hard hit due to its elderly population. Didn't happen (more accurately: hasn't happened and isn't now projected to happen).

From a historical standpoint it would be interesting to know what info went into the early models and why they were too high for places like Florida and too low for New York.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 6460
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/3/2020 2:55:21 PM   
mind_messing

 

Posts: 3393
Joined: 10/28/2013
Status: offline
quote:

The news media picked up on the negative projections for the South and predicted the region would suffer disproportionately. Naturally, some forumites picked up on that. As weeks passed and data came in indicating this wasn't true, the forumites asked for "more time" to receive data. When a week passed, and then another, and then two more, the data continued to show it wasn't the South suffering disproportionately. Actually it was the North. The media (and concerned forumites) haven't addressed this. The misreporting simply faded into the past, unacknowledged. No effort to self-critique, clarify or contextualize.


What data shows that the South is not suffering disproportionately?

The statistic of real value in my mind would be the comparison of excess deaths for the month versus the past five year average. Anyone know where we can see that for the US (preferably broken down by state level, but smaller would be better)?

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 6461
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/3/2020 2:59:31 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Spain reported 164 deaths today, its lowest total since March 19. Spain's decline came so much quicker than Italy's did. I'll add a comparison graphic momentarily.




Attachment (1)

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 5/3/2020 3:05:58 PM >

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 6462
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/3/2020 3:02:07 PM   
mind_messing

 

Posts: 3393
Joined: 10/28/2013
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Very early on in here, there were predictions that Florida would be particularly hard hit due to its elderly population. Didn't happen (more accurately: hasn't happened and isn't now projected to happen).

From a historical standpoint it would be interesting to know what info went into the early models and why they were too high for places like Florida and too low for New York.


We had the same thing in Scotland, and the UK in general. It all boils down to how you classify deaths.

After the UK classification changed to be more broader, numbers jumped. If you're running the numbers from "died in hospital, tested positive for Covid", then I doubt that demographic gets captured.

If you're taking a couple of weeks to trawl death certificates to pick up mentions of Covid-like symptoms, then the numbers are likely to be more accurate in my mind.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 6463
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/3/2020 3:02:29 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 22133
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

quote:

The news media picked up on the negative projections for the South and predicted the region would suffer disproportionately. Naturally, some forumites picked up on that. As weeks passed and data came in indicating this wasn't true, the forumites asked for "more time" to receive data. When a week passed, and then another, and then two more, the data continued to show it wasn't the South suffering disproportionately. Actually it was the North. The media (and concerned forumites) haven't addressed this. The misreporting simply faded into the past, unacknowledged. No effort to self-critique, clarify or contextualize.


What data shows that the South is not suffering disproportionately?

The statistic of real value in my mind would be the comparison of excess deaths for the month versus the past five year average. Anyone know where we can see that for the US (preferably broken down by state level, but smaller would be better)?


I have been looking for something like that number for a long time. The best I can come up with is the CDC has the US at 101, 115 and 119 (weekly number) percent above the prior three years average for a 3 week period before dropping back down to less than 100%. And for the year to date we are still under 99% of expected deaths. Data published May 1st.

(in reply to mind_messing)
Post #: 6464
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/3/2020 3:08:47 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Wow, Lowpe, those are surprising numbers (assuming I'm reading them correctly). Am I right that those stats show mortality is now slightly less than expected, even with Covid-19?

If not, excuse my misinterpretation. If, so....what? really?



< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 5/3/2020 3:10:04 PM >

(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 6465
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/3/2020 3:09:24 PM   
mind_messing

 

Posts: 3393
Joined: 10/28/2013
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe


quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

quote:

The news media picked up on the negative projections for the South and predicted the region would suffer disproportionately. Naturally, some forumites picked up on that. As weeks passed and data came in indicating this wasn't true, the forumites asked for "more time" to receive data. When a week passed, and then another, and then two more, the data continued to show it wasn't the South suffering disproportionately. Actually it was the North. The media (and concerned forumites) haven't addressed this. The misreporting simply faded into the past, unacknowledged. No effort to self-critique, clarify or contextualize.


What data shows that the South is not suffering disproportionately?

The statistic of real value in my mind would be the comparison of excess deaths for the month versus the past five year average. Anyone know where we can see that for the US (preferably broken down by state level, but smaller would be better)?


I have been looking for something like that number for a long time. The best I can come up with is the CDC has the US at 101, 115 and 119 (weekly number) percent above the prior three years average for a 3 week period before dropping back down to less than 100%. And for the year to date we are still under 99% of expected deaths. Data published May 1st.



Interesting that it's so hard to find.

For what it's worth, Scotland was at 68% higher registered deaths compared to the average for this time of year.

Granted, apples and oranges with the US and all, but if it's half as bad that's still 30% above the average...

(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 6466
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/3/2020 3:13:07 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 22133
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Wow, Lowpe, those are surprising numbers (assuming I'm reading them correctly). Am I right that those stats show mortality is now less than expected, even with Covid-19?

If not, excuse my misinterpretation. If, so....what?


Yes, you read it correctly.

I thought I posted it, but now in looking back at this thread I see that I haven't.

There are caveats of course to understanding the numbers. I previously mentioned that there is difficulty in collecting the numbers, not because of any strange conspiracy, but rather each state has different processes and timelines.

I will see if I can dig up the link direct to the CDC.



(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 6467
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/3/2020 3:13:31 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Lowpe, do you have the link to those stats or did you have to synthesize them from various sources, so that you really can't link it.

Those numbers are remarkable.

(in reply to mind_messing)
Post #: 6468
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/3/2020 3:20:59 PM   
BBfanboy


Posts: 18046
Joined: 8/4/2010
From: Winnipeg, MB
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

More on China.

United Front groups in Canada helped Beijing stockpile coronavirus safety supplies

https://globalnews.ca/news/6858818/coronavirus-china-united-front-canada-protective-equipment-shortage/?utm_source=%40globalnews&utm_medium=Twitter

So China was panicking when it realized the virus could become a huge problem in their country, and started gathering what they would need if they could not contain it. And Canada concluded it was better to help the Chinese deal with it before it spread too much worldwide. At the time, no one knew how fast it would spread or how stealthy it was, and the Chinese did not know how effective their control measures would be. It looks like the Chinese were being really proactive. So now they are selling the PPE back to the world and bidders are setting the price. I don't see a problem.

BTW, here is a clip of the world's biggest cargo plane delivering a load of PPE to Quebec ...

https://globalnews.ca/news/6898314/coronavirus-worlds-largest-aircraft-ppe-quebec/

_____________________________

No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 6469
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/3/2020 3:21:38 PM   
mind_messing

 

Posts: 3393
Joined: 10/28/2013
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Wow, Lowpe, those are surprising numbers (assuming I'm reading them correctly). Am I right that those stats show mortality is now less than expected, even with Covid-19?

If not, excuse my misinterpretation. If, so....what?


Yes, you read it correctly.

I thought I posted it, but now in looking back at this thread I see that I haven't.

There are caveats of course to understanding the numbers. I previously mentioned that there is difficulty in collecting the numbers, not because of any strange conspiracy, but rather each state has different processes and timelines.

I will see if I can dig up the link direct to the CDC.





That does make sense, I'm indulged by the fairly streamlined process in Scotland in that regard. US data landscape seems much more...craggy.

(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 6470
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/3/2020 3:22:42 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 22133
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Wow, Lowpe, those are surprising numbers (assuming I'm reading them correctly). Am I right that those stats show mortality is now less than expected, even with Covid-19?

If not, excuse my misinterpretation. If, so....what?


Yes, you read it correctly.

I thought I posted it, but now in looking back at this thread I see that I haven't.

There are caveats of course to understanding the numbers. I previously mentioned that there is difficulty in collecting the numbers, not because of any strange conspiracy, but rather each state has different processes and timelines.

I will see if I can dig up the link direct to the CDC.





That does make sense, I'm indulged by the fairly streamlined process in Scotland in that regard. US data landscape seems much more...craggy.



I wouldn't be surprised if some of the data is tabulated on 5.25 inch floppy in some states.

(in reply to mind_messing)
Post #: 6471
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/3/2020 3:23:21 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 22133
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: offline 		CR, here you go (my memory was a little off on the numbers and timeframe):

2Percent of expected deaths is the number of deaths for all causes for this week in 2020 compared to the average number across the same week in 2017–2019.

link: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm






Attachment (1)

< Message edited by Lowpe -- 5/3/2020 3:24:47 PM >

(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 6472
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/3/2020 3:27:20 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		USA Today struggling with context here: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/05/01/coronavirus-us-may-hit-10000-deaths-record-cases-may/3062216001/

The newspaper notes that the US has more than 63k deaths, which is more than the combined total mortalities of the countries with the second and third most deaths, Italy and UK....but fails to note that their combined populations are about 127 million, more than 200 million less than the US.






Attachment (1)

(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 6473
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/3/2020 3:29:49 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Thanks, Lowpe.

I think there may be a typo in your comment (see bold below)?


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

CR, here you go (my memory was a little off on the numbers and timeframe):

2Percent of expected deaths is the number of deaths for all causes for this week in 2020 compared to the average number across the same week in 2017–2019.

link: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm







(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 6474
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/3/2020 3:33:07 PM   
mind_messing

 

Posts: 3393
Joined: 10/28/2013
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Thanks, Lowpe.

I think there may be a typo in your comment (see bold below)?


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

CR, here you go (my memory was a little off on the numbers and timeframe):

2Percent of expected deaths is the number of deaths for all causes for this week in 2020 compared to the average number across the same week in 2017–2019.

link: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm








Gotta read the caveats before commenting on the data, CR!

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 6475
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/3/2020 3:33:55 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		I didn't comment on the data.

(in reply to mind_messing)
Post #: 6476
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/3/2020 3:34:37 PM   
mind_messing

 

Posts: 3393
Joined: 10/28/2013
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I didn't comment on the data.


Suggesting Lowpe's 2% claim was a typo.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 6477
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/3/2020 3:35:58 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Last week there were multiple news reports that Germany would have to reconsider easing of countermeasures, now in effect, due to flare ups.

There may be/have been flare ups here and there, but overall there's no trending increase there. Germany continues to do well.




Attachment (1)

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 6478
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/3/2020 3:36:53 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		I'm waiting for him to clarify. He ran together a figure (2) and a letter (P) in a way that I don't understand. I'm hoping he'll clarify.


quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I didn't comment on the data.


Suggesting Lowpe's 2% claim was a typo.


(in reply to mind_messing)
Post #: 6479
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/3/2020 3:40:08 PM   
Cap Mandrake


Posts: 23184
Joined: 11/15/2002
From: Southern California
Status: offline 		Where is Wuhan on the WITP AE map?

(in reply to mind_messing)
Post #: 6480
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