Slitherine

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ORIGINAL: sPzAbt653

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If there really are 50 primary cases from the "curious" guy in South Korea that is an R0=50

What the heck was the guy DOING?

A lot of coughing and sneezing that nobody was bothered by! Seriously though, it does seem that this story has a hole in it. It takes ten minutes of being in close proximity of someone with the disease in order to transmit it [by proximity]. So it would have taken him over 8 hours to infect 50 people. That's a lot of talking.

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ORIGINAL: Lowpe

How decisions are made: 3 part time research assistants and a associate professor whip up a Covid model over the weekend that the:

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Governor Walz relied heavily on these projections when he made his decision to issue a stay-at-home order on March 27.

https://cse.umn.edu/college/feature-stories/modeling-covid-19-minnesota

Modeling COVID-19 for Minnesota

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ORIGINAL: CaptBeefheart

Obvert: Congratulations!

The Itaewon outbreak is now up to 142, and they've tested 35,000 people who visited the area over a two-week period. Here's an interesting snippet:

"Of the national total, at least 82 were those who visited affected venues in Itaewon, and the others were infected through chain transmissions. Around two-thirds of them were aged between 19 and 29, the KCDC said."

The latest article: Itaewon-linked chain transmissions grip greater Seoul area

The super spreader says he became symptomatic the next day, but I'm guessing he did a fair amount of sneezing or coughing in those clubs (apparently five bars and clubs).

One interesting side effect is some of the local press is trying to play up the foreign angle. Here's an example: Jitters as Teachers Found to Have Partied in Itaewon

"According to the Ministry of Education, 880 teachers went to nightclubs and bars in Itaewon over the long weekend, 366 of them foreigners who typically work as language instructors in schools and crammers."

That quote is actually kind of funny as it confirms my observation that Itaewon is not longer a foreigner haven. In the old days, there'd be thousands of English teachers there on the prowl on a four-day weekend. I've seen on a couple of Facebook groups that a number of foreign teachers, most of whom weren't anywhere near Itaewon over the time in question, are being shat upon by their English school employers over this since Little Johnny's mom is worried about what those dastardly foreigners are up to. Nevermind that those clubs were filled with about 95% Koreans, the super spreader himself is Korean and, if I recall correctly, only four out of the 142 infected were foreigners.

Anyway, I've seen worse anti-foreign backlashes in this country. Life goes on.

Cheers,
CB

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ORIGINAL: sPzAbt653

quote:

If there really are 50 primary cases from the "curious" guy in South Korea that is an R0=50

What the heck was the guy DOING?

A lot of coughing and sneezing that nobody was bothered by! Seriously though, it does seem that this story has a hole in it. It takes ten minutes of being in close proximity of someone with the disease in order to transmit it [by proximity]. So it would have taken him over 8 hours to infect 50 people. That's a lot of talking.

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Obvert: "You mentioned your watering holes aren't yet fenced off. How do they do it there? Any restrictions on movement? Ordering differently? Masks for all? Mostly outside?"

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We need more testing.

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How contagious SARS-CoV-2 is in other countries remains to be seen.

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No one her anyway is mentioning ten minutes to infect others in closed indoor environments.

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ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

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ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Our mall is just a couple of miles down the road. For many years, I've routinely taken my lunch there, purchased a large unsweet ice tea, and read while eating. I resumed doing so last week, after a six-week Covid-hiatus. At first, there was next to nobody in the food court or in line at the vendors. Today was noticeably, remarkably more busy. People are definitely much more active. As best I can tell, there remains a wariness and caution about the wheels possibly coming off. Set against that feeling is an increasing confidence in returning to a more active work- and lifestyle. People are careful and polite in maintaining social distancing and being courteous. All restaurant employees wear masks. Only a few customers do - probably less than ten percent. Nursing homes and assisted living facilities remain on lockdown.

I went to Target today, all of the employees that I saw where wearing masks and one was sanitising the handles of the coolers. The cashier did not have the mask covering her nose and I mentioned that the mask does little good them. She said that it was hard to breathe. I told her to try a M17 gas mask from the military. She said that she heard about those from her step-father who was in the Navy.

I also noticed her accent was not from around here so I asked her where she was from. She said that she was from Alabama. So I told her where she could catch catfish but they would not eat rotten food. I also told her where she could get some good, smoked country style ribs to cook with black-eyed peas. They are leaner than ham hocks but are still very flavorable.

Deep fried catfish, hush puppies, cooked greens, hominy, peach cobbler, and pecan pie . . .

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ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Pa. officials revoked business waivers the night before publishing list of recipients

https://www.mcall.com/news/pennsylvania/mc-nws-coronavirus-pa-waivers-revoked-20200514-r5tdikt3yzcnngr74nt73tjxau-story.html

More Spotlight PA, a statewide cooperative journalist organisation that is really hitting it out of the park. As reprinted by my old hometown paper the Morning Call (Allentown, Bethlehem, Easton area).

This on the fiasco of essential business.

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ORIGINAL: fcooke

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ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Pa. officials revoked business waivers the night before publishing list of recipients

https://www.mcall.com/news/pennsylvania/mc-nws-coronavirus-pa-waivers-revoked-20200514-r5tdikt3yzcnngr74nt73tjxau-story.html

More Spotlight PA, a statewide cooperative journalist organisation that is really hitting it out of the park. As reprinted by my old hometown paper the Morning Call (Allentown, Bethlehem, Easton area).

This on the fiasco of essential business.

wife wanted take out last night so I went out and fetched. the nail salon was open. But I am guessing Lafayette College won't be having a reunion this year, where I got my degree back in the day. And the CA fall semester shutdown for their UNI system seems a bit premature to me.

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ORIGINAL: CaptBeefheart

My buddy at Asia Times finally finished up his big East vs West piece (actually, it's just Part 1--Part 2 tomorrow). He may be a bit soft regarding China's numbers, but his macro points hold up I think. There's a lot of food for thought in there. Here it is: Why East beat West on Covid-19

No happy hour this evening as my sister-in-law's father-in-law passed away today (cancer, not Covid). I only met him at our wedding, but he seemed a nice chap. I later heard he was big in the Esperanto world, of all things.

Cheers,
CB

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ORIGINAL: obvert

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ORIGINAL: Lowpe

How decisions are made: 3 part time research assistants and a associate professor whip up a Covid model over the weekend that the:

quote:

Governor Walz relied heavily on these projections when he made his decision to issue a stay-at-home order on March 27.

https://cse.umn.edu/college/feature-stories/modeling-covid-19-minnesota

Modeling COVID-19 for Minnesota

This is another good article about people with expertise stepping up to work through the day and night to help figure this out. Hats off to them for this work.

I also love that this is going these reserchers a chance to continue to work with new inputs and a better understanding as this develops to fine tune the tools they've created.

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ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

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ORIGINAL: fcooke

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ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Pa. officials revoked business waivers the night before publishing list of recipients

https://www.mcall.com/news/pennsylvania/mc-nws-coronavirus-pa-waivers-revoked-20200514-r5tdikt3yzcnngr74nt73tjxau-story.html

More Spotlight PA, a statewide cooperative journalist organisation that is really hitting it out of the park. As reprinted by my old hometown paper the Morning Call (Allentown, Bethlehem, Easton area).

This on the fiasco of essential business.

wife wanted take out last night so I went out and fetched. the nail salon was open. But I am guessing Lafayette College won't be having a reunion this year, where I got my degree back in the day. And the CA fall semester shutdown for their UNI system seems a bit premature to me.

The California shutdown is probably a cost-saving measure for the state. They can still collect full tuition but have lower costs. Also, by giving some employees fewer hours they can collect unemployment including the extra coronavirus money which can then lead to more money for the workers. They have more money to then spend in the local community.

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ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

My son, a senior at the University of Georgia, came home for spring break and simply stayed, since the rest of the term switched to online. Now he's doing a serious May-mester online. I was close enough to overhear the lectures over the computer. Terribly boring, with the instructors teaching in monotones. I commented to that effect. My son agreed, but noted he'd had one of the professors before and that he was a much better lecturer in a classroom.

I know an instructor of art at Emory University. She says it cannot be taught online. Ditto an acquaintance teaching in construction and engineering. Remote teaching in music? Veterinary medicine? Pharmacy?

Remote learning is a necessary stopgap measure but not a long term solution. My son (and his fiance, an art major in South Carolina) fervently hope the classrooms will be open come fall.

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ORIGINAL: Lowpe

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ORIGINAL: obvert

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ORIGINAL: Lowpe

How decisions are made: 3 part time research assistants and a associate professor whip up a Covid model over the weekend that the:

quote:

Governor Walz relied heavily on these projections when he made his decision to issue a stay-at-home order on March 27.

https://cse.umn.edu/college/feature-stories/modeling-covid-19-minnesota

Modeling COVID-19 for Minnesota

This is another good article about people with expertise stepping up to work through the day and night to help figure this out. Hats off to them for this work.

I also love that this is going these reserchers a chance to continue to work with new inputs and a better understanding as this develops to fine tune the tools they've created.

That is certainly one way of looking at it. Another might be to look at the relationship between ICU patients and confirmed cases.

Mid April there were 100 COVID patients in an ICU status with approx. 1,800 confirmed cases. A month later there are 200 COVID patients in ICU with 13,000 confirmed cases. With more testing the relationship between positive cases and ICU cases is likely to drop. Yet they are now projecting an increase to 3,600 ventilator cases over the next 8 weeks.

They are predicting 1700 deaths by end of May, 29,000 deaths for 12 months. They are according to worldometers at 672. Interesting to note, and sad, nursing home deaths account for 80%.

Also interesting that the model assumed an 80% compliance rate with the lockdown, but they just reported that there is about a 36% compliance. How that is measured I don't know...cell phone tracking perhaps? 36 is an awfully specific number.

I will give kudos to MN for releasing the model publicly, but it took them until yesterday to do it..

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ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I'm not sure about editing, but I doubt it. The lectures are pretty long and editing takes a long time. They are necessary at the moment, and could have other uses (as you note), but IMO will never come close to the classroom environment. I've been teaching in classrooms for more than 30 years and love it. I can't imagine that remote learning could ever replace the old-fashioned way. It's a necessity (or convenience) of this modern world, but yuck.

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ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I'm not sure about editing, but I doubt it. The lectures are pretty long and editing takes a long time. They are necessary at the moment, and could have other uses (as you note), but IMO will never come close to the classroom environment. I've been teaching in classrooms for more than 30 years and love it. I can't imagine that remote learning could ever replace the old-fashioned way. It's a necessity (or convenience) of this modern world, but yuck.

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ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

My son, a senior at the University of Georgia, came home for spring break and simply stayed, since the rest of the term switched to online. Now he's doing a serious May-mester online. I was close enough to overhear the lectures over the computer. Terribly boring, with the instructors teaching in monotones. I commented to that effect. My son agreed, but noted he'd had one of the professors before and that he was a much better lecturer in a classroom.

I know an instructor of art at Emory University. She says it cannot be taught online. Ditto an acquaintance teaching in construction and engineering. Remote teaching in music? Veterinary medicine? Pharmacy?

Remote learning is a necessary stopgap measure but not a long term solution. My son (and his fiance, an art major in South Carolina) fervently hope the classrooms will be open come fall.